Leans for Tuesday 03/24/2009

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  • Dexter
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 12-24-08
    • 25829

    #36
    for you to be going against your rockets (yeah, i noticed thats your team) this must be a nice play.
    Comment
    • BrandonLaz
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-18-08
      • 855

      #37
      Originally posted by Karayilan9
      Spurs is at -8 now does this usually happen, I'm not usually around during the day so was just wondering.
      It is a common thing called Reverse Line Movement. All the money is on one side and the bookie wants to keep it that way, because they think the other team covers with ease. Basically if you follow RLM everyday for everygame you will be up a profit. It is not always right though that is why most people on here pick and choose their spots wiesely.
      Comment
      • BrandonLaz
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 11-18-08
        • 855

        #38
        I think I am rolling Rockets today I know you all are on the Jazz here I just really like Houston having won four straight and 16 of its last 20. Houston is on the road tonight where they are currently on a 6-0 ATS stretch. The Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games and 1-4 ATS in their last five overall. The Rockets are on ATS runs of 4-0 as an underdog, 4-0 against the Northwest Division and 4-1 when playing on one day of rest. I am a trend kind of guy and to many of the trends point to the Rockets in this one for me.
        Comment
        • 2daBank
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-26-09
          • 88966

          #39
          Originally posted by BrandonLaz
          It is a common thing called Reverse Line Movement. All the money is on one side and the bookie wants to keep it that way, because they think the other team covers with ease. Basically if you follow RLM everyday for everygame you will be up a profit. It is not always right though that is why most people on here pick and choose their spots wiesely.
          this is not rlm the line is dropping because duncan is out
          Comment
          • BrandonLaz
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 11-18-08
            • 855

            #40
            Originally posted by 2daBank
            this is not rlm the line is dropping because duncan is out
            From what I had read he was probable tonight still. I didn't know he was actually out for the game.
            Comment
            • cocknocker
              Restricted User
              • 11-06-08
              • 8001

              #41
              Originally posted by repski
              CK,

              any leans on the FLA/PSU tonight?? Young FLA team peaking....smells like a PSU blowout??
              I like Baylor+3 in the other game, but in this one i prefer to play a total and with Florida at home of course i likethe over!
              Comment
              • cocknocker
                Restricted User
                • 11-06-08
                • 8001

                #42
                I am taking Baylor at +4 with a point buy.

                This is a non-competition pick. I am playing this one a normal play so don't anyone out there get any BIG ideas.

                As far as the competition goes, I saw the line dip to 207.5 for the Spurs Warriors game with 77% of the public on the under, so naturally, I took the over for this game!

                Spurs/Warriors over 207.5
                Comment
                • peterpan19
                  Restricted User
                  • 11-02-08
                  • 3377

                  #43
                  ck
                  so two heavy plays again today, utah -5.5 and the gsw over 207.5 for the tourney
                  and one normal baylor ... florida over (advice only)
                  GL

                  I just booked my play:
                  Chi -5.5

                  I will wait on the SA game a bit longer as I think the line will go to -8 where I make my play at -7.5

                  oh and 1st qtr plays today: Lakers -2, Under 48 Chi/Det

                  GL
                  Comment
                  • cocknocker
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-06-08
                    • 8001

                    #44
                    Originally posted by shoebox
                    Might as well go with the chiefs to

                    Alright cocknocker,

                    who are you backing for the upcoming games in the ncaa tourney, I dont wanna miss out on your plays............
                    I only like Purdue and Duke and Memphis (I have to keep taking them) and Kansas (see Memphis). Basically as promised when i made my bracket up I am riding the teams that participated in last year's final rounds until the wheels fall off. Ony this time I have memphis taking it all!
                    Comment
                    • cocknocker
                      Restricted User
                      • 11-06-08
                      • 8001

                      #45
                      Not playing the Florida over, Peterpan19. I was only giving advice on that one
                      Comment
                      • repski
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-01-09
                        • 1929

                        #46
                        Originally posted by cocknocker
                        I only like Purdue and Duke and Memphis (I have to keep taking them) and Kansas (see Memphis). Basically as promised when i made my bracket up I am riding the teams that participated in last year's final rounds until the wheels fall off. Ony this time I have memphis taking it all!
                        wow...no big east...

                        thks for your input on PSU/FLA sir...
                        Comment
                        • shoebox
                          Restricted User
                          • 11-26-08
                          • 5710

                          #47
                          Originally posted by cocknocker
                          I only like Purdue and Duke and Memphis (I have to keep taking them) and Kansas (see Memphis). Basically as promised when i made my bracket up I am riding the teams that participated in last year's final rounds until the wheels fall off. Ony this time I have memphis taking it all!
                          CK,

                          Which ones are you playing HEAVY, cause your lights out with that indication?
                          Comment
                          • CashIn
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 03-10-09
                            • 482

                            #48
                            lakers 1h anyone? also lakers 1q, 3q? thunder 4q?
                            lakers 1q 62%
                            lakers 2q 59%
                            lakers 3q 65%
                            lakers 4q 53%

                            thunder 1q 38%
                            thunder 2q 40%
                            thunder 3q 42%
                            thunder 4q 40%
                            Comment
                            • repski
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-01-09
                              • 1929

                              #49
                              Houston/Utah.....under 193
                              -Utah has gone UNDER the total in eight of their last ten games,
                              -Utah's last seven home games went below the total, only one of those home games went over tonight's total.
                              -Houston has played 4 road games this month ALL have finished UNDER the total.
                              Comment
                              • bobby heenan
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-20-09
                                • 4120

                                #50
                                Originally posted by RoagBettor
                                I'm still pissed off about Portland choking that game at the end.

                                1-1 on 3 Team/8 Pt Teasers last night as Kentucky/Richmond/St. Mary's hits.

                                Tonight is a tough call. Leaning towards the following teaser (with the 8 pts):

                                Lakers PK
                                Rockets +13.5
                                Penn State +17.5

                                Not sure yet though, I'm still analyzing.
                                i think i like that teaser...might play it or something similar myself
                                Comment
                                • Wilforth
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 05-10-08
                                  • 16309

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by Karayilan9
                                  Does anyone know why the Lakers line is dropping? it was -8.5 now its -7.5
                                  They want to get the public to lay on the Lakers! Lakers won't cover a spread of more than 5 points at OKC.
                                  Comment
                                  • Karayilan9
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 01-10-09
                                    • 3742

                                    #52
                                    Spurs have won their last 3 home 1st QTR's beating the mighty 1st QTR NBA teams Celtics and Rockets.
                                    Comment
                                    • mkchung
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 02-20-09
                                      • 127

                                      #53
                                      repski, i'm with you on that under. i like that 79% of the public are riding the over.
                                      Comment
                                      • mkchung
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 02-20-09
                                        • 127

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by Wilforth
                                        They want to get the public to lay on the Lakers! Lakers won't cover a spread of more than 5 points at OKC.
                                        the public is heavy on the lakers (about 90%). i think i may play okc.
                                        Comment
                                        • cocknocker
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 11-06-08
                                          • 8001

                                          #55
                                          Originally posted by shoebox
                                          CK,

                                          Which ones are you playing HEAVY, cause your lights out with that indication?

                                          I have not decided yet. But with UCONN winning by double digits in their first two games, I may make Purdue the proverbial one. They have an awful lot of guys that can create their own shot off of the dribble
                                          Comment
                                          • Odraca
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 01-09-09
                                            • 265

                                            #56
                                            0-2 last night on posted plays, tonight will be different,

                                            under 194 houston/jazz, might wait to see if it goes up before tip

                                            detriot +5.5

                                            those are my two plays, will be tailing some others, GL
                                            Comment
                                            • Dexter
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 12-24-08
                                              • 25829

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by BrandonLaz
                                              It is a common thing called Reverse Line Movement. All the money is on one side and the bookie wants to keep it that way, because they think the other team covers with ease. Basically if you follow RLM everyday for everygame you will be up a profit. It is not always right though that is why most people on here pick and choose their spots wiesely.
                                              i doubt that much movement had anything to do with RLM - that was simply an adjustment for Duncan potentially being out.
                                              Comment
                                              • BrandonLaz
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 11-18-08
                                                • 855

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                I have not decided yet. But with UCONN winning by double digits in their first two games, I may make Purdue the proverbial one. They have an awful lot of guys that can create their own shot off of the dribble
                                                I have Purdue in the Elite 8 against Memphis so I will be taking Purdue + the points as well and a play on the ML.
                                                Comment
                                                • hockeytown71
                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                  • 02-21-09
                                                  • 95

                                                  #59
                                                  How about some PUCKS:

                                                  Ana/Nash Under 5.5
                                                  **Van/Dallas Under 5.5**
                                                  Kings/Blues Under 5.5

                                                  May have more later, but GOOD LUCK on all your plays tonight!

                                                  unless, of course, you're fading me
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mehow
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 01-26-09
                                                    • 698

                                                    #60
                                                    i like them all:
                                                    sa -8,5
                                                    utah -5,5
                                                    chi -5,5

                                                    i think that's a good bet mr bookie
                                                    Comment
                                                    • cocknocker
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                      • 8001

                                                      #61
                                                      Excellent BrandonLaz. Purdue will get em'. I like the motion flex offense that they run. It produces wide open jumpers and cutters to the basket
                                                      Comment
                                                      • wangichu
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 11-07-08
                                                        • 946

                                                        #62
                                                        Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                        Excellent BrandonLaz. Purdue will get em'. I like the motion flex offense that they run. It produces wide open jumpers and cutters to the basket
                                                        just as much so for me, i'm a doubter of thabeet. He's too soft with the ball and can be muscled around when he doesn't have it. Also, if you take him away from the basket with high screens you create one of two results: you can either keep him out of the play and off the glass all together or you can get him to sloppily chase and foul anyone who gets by him. If he gets in foul trouble, UCONN may not survive this game. I have them losing to memphis in the elite 8, but it sure wouldn't hurt my bracket for them to lose here (as others have them going further) and i don't doubt it could happen... either way purdue will get too many points. With ya here amigos.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • wangichu
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 11-07-08
                                                          • 946

                                                          #63
                                                          as for b-ball... the jazz didn't cover their last 2 games against the rockets and now due to the rockets hot streak, they catch a reduced spread, that's still pretty large all things considered, that tells me they're the play here. They'll be happy to host a home game after playing 6 of the last 7 on the road and going 3-3 in those games.

                                                          UTAH -5

                                                          8 points is a lot to give to the thunder the way they have covered this year. Furthermore, they have a history of giving the lakers fits, taking them to OT last year with a less developed team. Last game they stayed in it late, but just couldn't overcome the early deficit they let themselves fall in. Nevertheless, they're getting the exact same spread as last time and the public is jumping on the lakers yet again. Time to get back my losses from the last time i took them as home dogs. Don't know if they win this SU and given these teams respective records, i really feel that ML money is too risky for my taste so i'll take the points and call it a bet.

                                                          OKC +8

                                                          still watching this one and as such it's only a lean as of yet, but i've always liked playing the bulls as dogs vs. the pistons, and even took them as 2 pt favs earlier getting a slim cover with a late surge. Best time to play the pistons this year has been when they get 6 pts or more, especially on the road and i can't see them not playing this one close if not coming away with the SU win that they need badly (ya the bulls need it to, but the bulls aren't the kinda team that comes through when they need to and even though these aren't the same pistons, i trust them needing it more than the bulls needing it).

                                                          DET +6 (holding out for now though)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • 2daBank
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 01-26-09
                                                            • 88966

                                                            #64
                                                            does ant1 know why the chi/det number is set so low? i dont think any of the games they have played this year have ended w this low of a total and w 77% of the ppl jumping on the over as they should it looks like the right play the line not moving at all? makes me think the under is the play but cant seem to make myself pull the trigger any thoughts?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Cassidy
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 01-19-09
                                                              • 125

                                                              #65
                                                              Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                              As far as the competition goes, I saw the line dip to 207.5 for the Spurs Warriors game with 77% of the public on the under, so naturally, I took the over for this game!

                                                              Spurs/Warriors over 207.5
                                                              I still have a lot for learn, but, dont understand the logic here. The line dip to 207.5 obviously bc most of the public is on the under, so the books make this movement for you to be more easy on the over. No RLM here. Dont meaning it doesnt be a good pick at all, but trying to get the logic in this choice by the movement.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • mkchung
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 02-20-09
                                                                • 127

                                                                #66
                                                                it's been a pretty quiet day on the thread. what's on your card tonight guys?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • tommyminh
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 03-19-09
                                                                  • 208

                                                                  #67
                                                                  last night game
                                                                  Portland-8 plus Denver+3.5=500 lost 550
                                                                  Denver+3.5 Under 236.6=500 win 1,500
                                                                  total +950
                                                                  tonight game i agree with ck
                                                                  Utah-5.5 plus under 194 = 500
                                                                  Utah-5.5 plus over spur/warrior game score by 207.5 = 500
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • peterpan19
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 11-02-08
                                                                    • 3377

                                                                    #68
                                                                    well rose is probably out for chi tonight... I mean he probably is as the line went down to -4.5 and the total dropped to 188.5...

                                                                    I also booked the Spurs -7.5 (.5 buy)
                                                                    and chicago -5.5 as posted earlier

                                                                    but no 1st qtr bets for me tonight..

                                                                    GL
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • wangichu
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 11-07-08
                                                                      • 946

                                                                      #69
                                                                      anyone heard anything on whether rip and sheed will be suiting up tonight?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • peterpan19
                                                                        Restricted User
                                                                        • 11-02-08
                                                                        • 3377

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Wallace is out
                                                                        Hamilton is out
                                                                        Comment
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