Leans for Saturday 03/23/2009

[pho3nix32]

CK on the road, Dex is "mad", let's get some handicapping done here in pro ball

line: ah+8.5@cc
pick: ah+8.5

One play for tomorrow. I will ride the hot ATS team and fade the team which is in a funk right now ATS.

line: nyk@om 215
pick: 215 over

The Magic are the #1 team in 3-pointers made. The Knicks on the other hand have D'antoni as coach. No much explanation needed.

line: ww@phx 231
pick: 231 over

The Wizards have nothing to play for. Suns rhyme with run. Both clubs have never heard of the word "defense" before. Enough said.

The spreadsheet experiment is over now. Too tiresome lol.

[BrandonLaz]

I don't know if you noticed, but your two picks are todays picks maybe you posted the wrong spreadsheet. I don't know how the spreadsheet thing works as I have never tried it.

[danrman]

sorry pho,, i respect you but cleve. covers

[BillAccpetor]

Atlanta really underated Imo... I will go for Hawks +8.5...

[Ludovike]

Atlanta +8,5
Both teams are 7-0 straight up, so one streak will end today. While the Hawks have been flawless 7-0 ATS in their recent homestand, the Cavs are just 2-5 struggling ATS. They've beaten the Heat by 11 (ATS win), @Clippers by 4, @Suns by 8 (2nd ATS win), @Kings by 3 in OT, back at home Knicks by 5, Magic by 4 and Blazers by 5 in OT. Last meeting in Cleveland the Hawks were sent home with a 14 pts difference, but the Cavs were happy to catch Atlanta Saturday evening back-to-back off a win in Charlotte, having played their 4th game in five nights. No such circumstances today, the Hawks are fully rested and self-confident enough to give it a try in Forest City before continuing their homework. They might not win (though it seems Cavs are also due for a loss), but I can't see the Hawks losing by double digits, even more as the homecrowd will be less enthusiastic at 1:00PM compared to last time blowout at prime time.

[stakagrp]

I agree with everyone and taking Atlanta. Nice writeup and info Ludovike. Atlanta will be playing this game with revenge on their mind and would like to keep this one close. Any thoughts on the total to this game anyone?

[joanapoker]

there are better games to cap than ATL/CLE....

so far I'm leaning on NYK/ORL UNDER.....

[RoagBettor]

Booked 3 Team/8 Pt Teaser:

Atlanta Hawks +16.5
Texas A&M +18.5
Maryland +17

$120 to win $100

[peterpan19]

ATL +8.5 (early start)
I think ludovike said everything there is to say... Cleveland just cant blow out anyone lately and that will continue with a hot Hawks team coming into town

ORL -12
come on... the Knicks are a joke right now, playing no D what so ever
plus Orl is 5-1 su and ats against the Knicks at home, I fully expect a blowout win by Orl here today...what makes it even worse for the Knicks they are b2b facing a well rested Orlando team and that needs every win right now... I will probably take orl 1st qtr and half time too... Orl all the way today...

Char -6 (projected)
this char team is getting hot and well ind is ice cold right now... plus Char is 5-2 SU at home against IND...plus they are 13-3 ats at home as of late.. plus char actually cares about that game as they are only 1 GB a playoff spot... Ind not so much anymore...add in that Ind only scored 87.75 pts in its last 4 and Char allowed 92.75 (and that only bc of the high scoring min game) well you get the picture here...

slight leans on pho and mil... but waiting for the line here

also I will take bos 1st qtr for sure... if its not an insane number

GL

[RoagBettor]

peterpan, the only problem I have with the ORL/NY game is the Knicks are well-rested also

[King_Bookie]

ATL +8.5 (early start)
I think ludovike said everything there is to say... Cleveland just cant blow out anyone lately and that will continue with a hot Hawks team coming into town

ORL -12
come on... the Knicks are a joke right now, playing no D what so ever
plus Orl is 5-1 su and ats against the Knicks at home, I fully expect a blowout win by Orl here today...what makes it even worse for the Knicks they are b2b facing a well rested Orlando team and that needs every win right now... I will probably take orl 1st qtr and half time too... Orl all the way today...

Char -6 (projected)
this char team is getting hot and well ind is ice cold right now... plus Char is 5-2 SU at home against IND...plus they are 13-3 ats at home as of late.. plus char actually cares about that game as they are only 1 GB a playoff spot... Ind not so much anymore...add in that Ind only scored 87.75 pts in its last 4 and Char allowed 92.75 (and that only bc of the high scoring min game) well you get the picture here...

slight leans on pho and mil... but waiting for the line here

also I will take bos 1st qtr for sure... if its not an insane number

GL

Good picks.

Im betting:

ATL +8.5 (ALL IN)

What were the linesmaker thinking in giving a hot team on a 7-win streak a +8.5 spread against the Cavs at home? Well, yeah they have only one loss at home and 7-0 SU also but come on, 0-4 ATS in the last 4 games? This is easily the most advantageous spread that I have ever seen in my short stay here. The only way Cavs can cover is to have Lebron, Mo, West and Z a great shooting day and a bad day for Atlanta. I don't see that happening. I'm betting my entire bankroll on this one.

Its up to you guys to tail or fade but I'm not responsible for lost money. As for me, I have 100% confidence in this play.

[RoagBettor]

Hopefully the Atl/Cle game is not a trap. Atlanta is due for a bad game and Cleveland is due for a good one.

[King_Bookie]

peterpan, the only problem I have with the ORL/NY game is the Knicks are well-rested also

Well rested? Who?

Knicks just had a sh!tty game against Sacramento today. And they have to go to Orlando after that. Only the Gambling Gods can make the Knicks cover 12 points.

[RoagBettor]

King, I was being sarcastic. The Knicks didn't show up for their game last night (hence the after my comment).

[johnnymapalo]

Good picks.

Im betting:

ATL +8.5 (ALL IN)

What were the linesmaker thinking in giving a hot team on a 7-win streak a +8.5 spread against the Cavs at home? Well, yeah they have only one loss at home and 7-0 SU also but come on, 0-4 ATS in the last 4 games? This is easily the most advantageous spread that I have ever seen in my short stay here. The only way Cavs can cover is to have Lebron, Mo, West and Z a great shooting day and a bad day for Atlanta. I don't see that happening. I'm betting my entire bankroll on this one.

Its up to you guys to tail or fade but I'm not responsible for lost money. As for me, I have 100% confidence in this play.

Your going all-in!!. How much is your all-in?? 20 bucks

[King_Bookie]

I see -_-

Blame it on my lack of a good sense of sarcasm

Anyways, I'm liking Chicago very much tonight. Beating 2 elite teams at home and the line fell from 4.5 to 3.5?? Oh, something is very very fishy here, just like that miami game today.

[King_Bookie]

Your going all-in!!. How much is your all-in?? 20 bucks

Somewhere along the lines of $500-$600. Can't do the math right now but that's all I made after starting this gambling thingy with $200...

Well $500 is worth $20 to most of you guys so it doesnt make any difference at all

[RoagBettor]

King, I noticed the line drop last night also. But I just can't bet that game, Chicago is way too unpredictable. Although the "fix" could be in for this one

[RoagBettor]

My biggest bet today so far is a 3 Team/8 Pt Teaser:

Cleveland -.5
North Carolina -3.5
Duke +1

$240 to win $200

[peterpan19]

well thats the only problem with the atl/cle game... everyone is due for something... but can you really bet on the "due factor" ... nay you cant

knicks are shitty no matter what, I mean they could have at least tried to make it closer at home on a friday night but they didnt and dont tell me they looked ahead... only thing they can look ahead is the end of the season and it better come soon for them

GL

[RoagBettor]

peter, I agree, but it's the NBA and it's sports betting, so after last night's performance I'm not touching the Knicks in my 8 pt teaser getting +20 or Orlando at -4.

Good luck also.

[King_Bookie]

Knicks are way too unpredictable to bet on, even against a formidable Orlando at home.

I might just do an analysis of Chicago and Atlanta here.... I didnt really cared a lot about LA @ CHI because +4 or -4 isnt something to be excited about. But the line fell while the public is betting on the other side....

These are the recent games that are making me lean heavily for Chicago tomorrow:

1. MAR 16 SAS @ OKC (Line started at +5IIRC and became +4.5 then returned to 5, igniting mass bets due to belief that no one can guard Duncan and Parker) -> OKC WON

2. MAR 16 HOU @ NO (Line started at -3.5, as books now there are so many who bet early. It was reported very late that Yao Ming is not suiting up for the game, and even though it was raised to -6.0 people still jumped the gun for NO, saying they'll blow them out) -> HOU won a what's supposed to be an unwinnable game (I bet on HOU but sincerely thought that NO will win by 5 or more)

[NardVa]

Atlanta is due for a loss and so is Cleveland. Logic would say Atlanta would lose since they are going on the road after 7 straight wins but it's not like they are gone over look or sleep on Cleveland. Tough one.

[RoagBettor]

Wash/Pho OVER 231.5

[NBA Hero]

cavs havent been playing seriously for the past games except for 4th quarters.

knowing atl, and atl playing LBJ tough early can make cavs play this game as playoff game material.

I agree +8 is big if you are considering the team with the most currently active SU & ATS win.
Still cavs have been a monster at home and the books seldom makes an error

[peterpan19]

right on, char is a -6.5 fav... I like it

[King_Bookie]

I've added my bets:

ATL +8.5 = $500 to win $450
CHI ML = $100 to win $350 (I'm using my own money on this one, not the ones that I won with)

[jellobiafra]

I really like ATL/CLE over 185

[pho3nix32]

sorry pho,, i respect you but cleve. covers

no problem dan, the cavs have not covered in last 3 home games, while hawks are hot hot hot. good luck!

[tommyminh]

Here is my pick

Atlanta and Cleve game Cleve will win this game but they're will not cover the spread so 8 point it mean alots to Atlanta so i go for Atlant+8=500
Atlant+8 Plus Over 184.5=500
Like i was said cleveland will win the game but wasnt cover the point i was rite so here is my wining game Atlanta 96, Cleveland 102
straight game $500 for $500
Parly Atlanta+8 $500 for $1500 total of this game i win $2000

[darkenergy]

Well rested? Who?

Knicks just had a sh!tty game against Sacramento today. And they have to go to Orlando after that. Only the Gambling Gods can make the Knicks cover 12 points.

They will win (covered) when the least you expected them to. In the last couple days the RLM doesn't work in most of the games. Look at OKC Thurs play with Portland the line move in favor of OKC (public heavy on Portland and the line of Porland droped), yesterday is the same, public are heavy on Jazz and the line drop from -5 to -4, OKC didn't cover either.
Look at ORL line 78% public on ORL and the line hardly move.
I will gamble and take NICKS + 11.5.

[solobass]

whats up everyone i am back. absolutely talking to myself on my own thread so that is done.
nobody seems to want to talk math, numbers, etc the real nuts and bolts so that is cool. first booked play today
is

Cavs -8

[cap10]

hey all; ATL +8.5 looks like a red herring to me;; that juicy line will suck in most of the money and and cle will cover and win by 10;;; i've seen it a thousand times;;
i like the hawks lineup too;; but at home;; after that long home stand i look for them to be flat here;;

jmo;; cle -7.5 looks very tempting

[solobass]

bottom line, the difference between the hawks road % and cavs home % is 57%, and the biggest difference is when you compare the cavs D to the hawks D. no comparison. horford is dinged up a tad as well and i thank you for pushing the line down a half a point!

[solobass]

odd, atlanta only has 1 road game this whole month and this is it.