Leans for Saturday 03/23/2009

[King_Bookie]

If Atlanta wins this(and damn hopes that Chicago wins SU), I'll make a wager for Cleveland to win it all. Domino effect is in course, this'll give Cleveland the extra push to dominate more at home (unlike their recent performance at the Q)

[cap10]

solo
many of these games boil down to who will be more fired up cause the talent is so even;; remember last week lal started a roady in minny and were sleepwalking a couldnot cover ats;; i see atl just being sluggish here;; but i am wrong about half the time so no all-ins recommended;

[cap10]

i don't know how this teaser can lose ; sucker bet i know;; 5 pt ;;11t

cavs -3
orl -6.5
bos -2.5
bulls +8.5
unc -7.5
duke -2.5
ucla +8
ucla U149
maryland +15
okl -2
wkent +16.5
pays 20-1

[solobass]

solo
many of these games boil down to who will be more fired up cause the talent is so even;; remember last week lal started a roady in minny and were sleepwalking a couldnot cover ats;; i see atl just being sluggish here;; but i am wrong about half the time so no all-ins recommended;

i agree with you to a certain point. here is how i see it. we all talk about injuries, streaks, home/road, and other inside info. the books know far more than us in these areas and they are part of what makes the line what it is. hundreds, maybe thousands of people work at casinos and the books to adjust and put out lines, simulate games, and try to beat us. what i am talking about is peeling the onion back several layers to expose the hidden gems in handicapping. for example, if home court worth 3 pts for the nets, what is it worth for the cavs or lakers? they are quite unequal but for line projections many use a generic 3 for home court. i have a sliding scale home court method that has worked well for me thus far. what are you figuring or working on that the books do not calculate? do you think they do not know about SU and ATS streaks and who is motivated and who is not?

my question to the board is what is YOUR edge?

[natelli1]

im a die hard knicks fan ... after a 27pt home loss to the kings!!(0-28 vs the east[4-31 on the road]) i cannot see this team having any fight left in them .. all they do is dribble down the court and shoot jumpers and even when they are cold, they still shoot jumpers, they never drive to the lane .. with that said they also play no defense whatsoever nor do they have a legitimate defender to guard the unguardable dwight howard
ORL -11.5

[Odraca]

RLM on the zags today, opened at -10.5, 77% ppl on w.kentucky and it went to -11

memphis too,

only 13% on indiana and line hasnt changed
85% on boston and line went down to -7.5
same with chicago, 15% on them and line goes +3.5
only 6% on milwakee and that line dropped too

[cap10]

solo
i use the lines here at western canada gov lottery;; eg;; they have cle -8.5 fixed;; that tells me that they expect cle to cover ;; in this case i agree w them;;
just my m.o.

[alukk]

Basketball NCAA - 521 UCLA +4 buying ½ points -120 for Game Risk:$1100.00 (USD) To Win Amount:$916.66 (USD)

[corona]

atlanta is completely asleep.

this is bad.

[solobass]

easy $$$ Cavs 1st Q cashes

[solobass]

i played Cleveland so big that it is my only NBA play today. I do not like to have that much of my roll out @ one time.

[The_Kid]

line: nyk@om 215
pick: 215 over

The Magic are the #1 team in 3-pointers made. The Knicks on the other hand have D'antoni as coach. No much explanation needed.

line: ww@phx 231
pick: 231 over

The Wizards have nothing to play for. Suns rhyme with run. Both clubs have never heard of the word "defense" before. Enough said.

pho3nix, I might have to tail you on these picks. They look really good.

[Odraca]

cavs will win before any of the other games, so u can still play them later

[RoagBettor]

Like I said, Cleveland was due for a good game and Atlanta a bad one.

[corona]

man. atlanta shouldn't have even shown up today. they're completely worthless.

[solobass]

cavs will win before any of the other games, so u can still play them later

i hear you on that, but i am not giving any of this back to the books. also my record on sundays really sucks so i am taking tomorrow off. today = driving range tomorrow = 18 holes

[solobass]

also monday night magic @ knicks.......

[cap10]

thinking of parlaying ucla and atl for 2nd half;; both these tms have to save face now;; aren't they gonna fight like hades in the 2nd half?

[solobass]

thinking of parlaying ucla and atl for 2nd half;; both these tms have to save face now;; aren't they gonna fight like hades in the 2nd half?

let me suggest that you double down on another later game that you already like. that is the strategy i like when i do feel the itch to chase a tad.

[King_Bookie]

I woke up at 2am here because of a call and when I checked up on the odds I noticed the ATL @ CLE game already started. That's when I knew I was in deep sh!t.

Gonna sleep now and when I wake up atl better cover that huge ass spread. or maybe chicago can save my ass. lol crap end to a week.

[johnnymapalo]

Good picks.

Im betting:

ATL +8.5 (ALL IN)

What were the linesmaker thinking in giving a hot team on a 7-win streak a +8.5 spread against the Cavs at home? Well, yeah they have only one loss at home and 7-0 SU also but come on, 0-4 ATS in the last 4 games? This is easily the most advantageous spread that I have ever seen in my short stay here. The only way Cavs can cover is to have Lebron, Mo, West and Z a great shooting day and a bad day for Atlanta. I don't see that happening. I'm betting my entire bankroll on this one.

Its up to you guys to tail or fade but I'm not responsible for lost money. As for me, I have 100% confidence in this play.

Oh boy.. That's why I questioned your all-in play. A horrible road team as an all-in play was not too good of a pick. Maybe Atlanta wakes up in the 2nd half. Oh well, you live you learn..

[rowdy08]

booked atl -.5 3q there due to win at least one q

[King_Bookie]

Oh boy.. That's why I questioned your all-in play. A horrible road team as an all-in play was not too good of a pick. Maybe Atlanta wakes up in the 2nd half. Oh well, you live you learn..

What I never hoped for happened. Lebron is finally distributing the damn ball after three horrible home games and ATL is shooting like grade school basketball.

[johnnymapalo]

What I never hoped for happened. Lebron is finally distributing the damn ball after three horrible home games and ATL is shooting like grade school basketball.

Guy, #1, never go all-in on any play no matter how good it looks. #2 never go all-in on a road team. #3 Know the history of both teams playing each other before making your play.

Atlanta is a horrible road team and has been a horrible road team all this year and last year as well. Cleveland blew them out at home already and Atlanta won once in their home. Atlanta is a totally different team on the road than at home.. They suck on the road. I hope your other play pulls through else you'll have to reload on Monday..

[haserfauld]

booked atl -.5 3q there due to win at least one q

that's a money play. cleveland sucks 3rd q. although the ML might have been better in case. I'm glad i overslept because i was looking at atl +8.5 really hard last night, but woke up after the game started lol

[rowdy08]

that's a money play. cleveland sucks 3rd q. although the ML might have been better in case. I'm glad i overslept because i was looking at atl +8.5 really hard last night, but woke up after the game started lol

Yeah I was too but I got busy doing something and by the time I came back it was to late.

[haserfauld]

Yeah I was too but I got busy doing something and by the time I came back it was to late.

cashed....nice work

[solobass]

booked atl -.5 3q there due to win at least one q

you cashed that one good call.

[corona]

cmon atl.

give me one decent little scoring run this game.

[rowdy08]

you cashed that one good call.

[corona]

ATLANTA!

6 point game!

[dennisback]

lol only down 6 with 40s to go

[haserfauld]

ATLANTA!

6 point game!

i was about to say...there's your scoring run. holy crap by the bench too.

[suckatmyjob]

omg this atlanta talking about putting you on the edge of your seat

[The_Kid]

Wow, why does Cleveland have all their scrubs in? Atlanta could force it to OT.