Cartytay System Results>>>>>

cartytay · 03-12-09, 12:27 PM

Nice job Doc...BOL the rest of the year and next season!!!!!!

DukeJohn · 03-12-09, 01:43 PM

Hey, how did the 2005 - 2006 season do?

DukeJohn · 03-12-09, 01:52 PM

Originally posted by DOCTOR X

2007-08 Results

A games won 101.......B games won 38......C games won 25

Losses 4.......Chicago November 20,24,25.........Charllotte November 27, December 1,3........ New Jersey January 19,20,22....... Boston February 19,20,22

Totals 164-74.8 +89.2 units

hmm... I guess it just depends on where you do your research, because for 2007 -2008 I have 6 losses:

Charlotte
Utah
Boston
La Clipper
New Jersey
Sac

Of course it was still profitable last year.... 20.86 units, not including playoffs or using 6 aways as a 2 series attempt...

My results also show a loss of 25.21 units in the 05-06 season with 9 losses, maybe yours will be different...

Just FYI...

mcbain · 03-12-09, 01:57 PM

filters?

Cartytay: does your system use any filters such as injuries to key players or not playing teams with best or worst road record in the league?

And, if a team goes out on a 4-team road trip, you simply play the first 3 games (and only the first 3)?

cartytay · 03-13-09, 12:01 PM

No filters what so ever. and yes to your 2nd question only play the 1st 3 games unless its 6 game or more trip

Dexter · 03-13-09, 01:49 PM

cartay - what site do you use for the 3 point buy and at what price?

also, how often did a 2 vs 3 point buy make a difference? aprox..

thx.

jellobiafra · 03-13-09, 03:00 PM

Question for anyone --This may be something you guys have gone over before, but I'm new to the forum...Is there a logical reason that explains why this system should or does work? The only obvious thing that I can think of is that the road team is undervalued in the spread. But I'm not sure how that fits into the theory of the 3 game road trip (especially with an East-West stipulation). Can anyone give me a brief synopsis of the philosophy behind this system's success?

netinfo · 03-14-09, 09:57 AM

In previous years, has the system ever suffered a back to back C bet loss?

If no, then what do you think of this scenario:

Say a C bet loss occurs. Would it be a good idea to wait for the next occurrence of the C bet, and then double up on it in order to recover the money that you lost on the first C bet?

netinfo

brooks85 · 03-14-09, 10:10 AM

there was definitely more than 4 loses last year.

netinfo · 03-15-09, 02:42 PM

Congrats to those who took Miami today!

Portland is now a B bet for tomorrow.

netinfo

mehow · 03-15-09, 03:13 PM

hey, sacramento is an A bet, and njn is is c bet? am i right?

Bluehorseshoe · 03-15-09, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by mehow

hey, sacramento is an A bet, and njn is is c bet? am i right?

Nets covered already against GS.

netinfo · 03-15-09, 03:39 PM

hey, sacramento is an A bet, and njn is is c bet? am i right?

As far as Sacramento, the Cartytay system doesn't use any filters, so yes, Sacramento is an A bet.

netinfo

netinfo · 03-16-09, 01:16 PM

For this Portland B bet, I'm trying out a strategy:

Instead of putting the whole B level money on a 3 point buy, I'm breaking it up into thirds. A third on 2 points, a third on 3 points, and a third on 4 points. I'll see how this one works. I'm wondering whether that 4 point buy will come in handy, in case we barely loose this B bet.

I try different strategies to test them out.

netinfo

Ditaln1 · 03-16-09, 01:27 PM

Really matters also which line you guys got. Lines change throughout the day, so someone buying 3 at 4.5 or 3 at 3.5, one person can win and some can lose, say if the other team won by 7. You can't really track the system using closing lines as different people got different lines. Basically what I'm saying is people say there was more loses, and other people can claim it went perfect depending on what line they got for a said game.

For Instance, there was a JM play for Cleveland/Clippers earlier in the year, that if you would of gotten the line when it first came out and bought the 3 you would of won the game. If you would of waited until game time, and bought the 3, the line had dropped, and you would of lost by .5 . Yes I lost

Just my 2 cents.

netinfo · 03-16-09, 02:19 PM

Yes, line movement is important to watch for.

I'm trying to bet as soon as the lines come out, but sometimes, the lines move against me as the day goes by. For example, earlier today, my book gave me Portland at -6.5, and so I bought 2, 3, and 4 points. I just checked, and the line has gone down to -6, and so had I waited, I would have gotten this better line.

However, I tend to notice, that in general, the earlier line is the best line, especially, when it comes to betting through my book, Betus.

netinfo

Ditaln1 · 03-16-09, 02:45 PM

Net, you have to be careful because JM advertises for BetUS. I seem to notice that on JM A or B plays, BetUS lines are usually inflated for the road team.

netinfo · 03-16-09, 02:58 PM

Yeah, Betus is quite terrible on those of us who are using the JM plays. They do inflate the lines, often, towards the middle and end of the day. My money is stuck there, and so I can't move it to another book until I qualify for their rollover limit.

In the future, I'm intending to sign up with several books in order to check out the best lines.

netinfo

DOCTOR X · 03-16-09, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by DukeJohn

hmm... I guess it just depends on where you do your research, because for 2007 -2008 I have 6 losses:

Charlotte
Utah
Boston
La Clipper
New Jersey
Sac

Of course it was still profitable last year.... 20.86 units, not including playoffs or using 6 aways as a 2 series attempt...

My results also show a loss of 25.21 units in the 05-06 season with 9 losses, maybe yours will be different...

Your correct Sacramento should have been a loss.

Am sticking with series wins with Utah and LAC.

On December 8, 2007 Dallas was a 5.5 point favorite and beat Utah 125-117. With the recommended 3 point buy Utah is a winner.

March 10, 2008 LAC were a 2.5 point favorite at Miami. LAC beat Miami 99-98. With the recommended 3 point buy the Clips are a winner.

Results should read 164-93.5 or +70.5 units

Just FYI...

netinfo · 03-16-09, 10:05 PM

Congrats to anyone who took Portland today

Cartytay play for tomorrow: Timberwolves

netinfo

netinfo · 03-17-09, 10:37 PM

Congrats to anyone who took the Timberwolves tonight!

netinfo

sportsbetwin · 03-19-09, 07:15 AM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Question for anyone --This may be something you guys have gone over before, but I'm new to the forum...Is there a logical reason that explains why this system should or does work? The only obvious thing that I can think of is that the road team is undervalued in the spread. But I'm not sure how that fits into the theory of the 3 game road trip (especially with an East-West stipulation). Can anyone give me a brief synopsis of the philosophy behind this system's success?

Can't give a comprehensive answer but a few things to help explain. You need at least better than 94% win rate to return a profit. Without buying points and picking ANY 3 games at random you will win 88% (rounding) of your bets. By buying 3 points every game this will take you into the low 90's.
Historically the first game of a road trip (partic in a diff conference) produces an ATS win record (without buying points) of about 60%.
There is usually more sentimental money on the home team and hence the visiting team may be undervalued. The different conference throws in another variable as it is slightly harder to handicap than when they are form the same conference.

Please correct me anyone if I am wrong on any point. I am sure there is more to it.

Cheme82 · 03-19-09, 10:32 AM

Those are good reasons sportsbetwin, also when teams are from a different conference, they are not so used to playing each other and the linemakers are not used to setting lines for their matchups, a lot of times there is inflated value on the home team just because the public prefers the home team the same way they prefer the over and the favorite.

When the road team losses the first game, the second road game has a line that reflects that loss, people start accounting for road fatigue, etc. usually you find extra value in the line because of that too.

sportsbetwin · 03-19-09, 03:16 PM

Also when a team is playing its last game of a road trip (often a C game) and they have been beaten in previous games they will usually perform better in Game C. There is added motivation to salvage something from the road trip.
Team who play poorly in early road trip games will usually put in a solid performance in game B or C.
In addition to this the line gets kinder as the series goes on. This is why the further you get into a series the better your chances of winning.

GoGoGadget · 03-19-09, 03:16 PM

Anyone have the wins for this year broken down by ABC? thanks

Cheme82 · 03-20-09, 11:54 AM

Hey guys we have been trying to find a similar system for NHL. We started yesterday on a trial basis playing Washington and Edmonton yesterday as bets A, and they both cashed.

6 series left, Detroit is bet A today, they are around -180 on the ML right now.

Cheme82 · 03-20-09, 12:04 PM

Hey GoGo, this is what I have so far:

BET A=48
BET B=23
BET C=3

No losses.

Hope that helps.

netinfo · 03-20-09, 11:17 PM

Cartytay bet A on Saturday: Lakers

netinfo

alukk · 03-20-09, 11:55 PM

i will take lakers -3 vs chicago

Cheme82 · 03-21-09, 12:05 AM

Ok Detroit cashed on NHL, 3-0 all wins on bet A.

5 Series left, one play for Saturday: Vancouver ML (-160)

Good luck.

GoGoGadget · 03-21-09, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by DOCTOR X

I dont see a loss for Sac. Only a C bet push which isnt a full 19u loss.

01/27/08@ covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404316.html W covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2007-2008/boxscore754313.htmlRegular SeasonL -5

buy 3 and its a push.

I show 4 losses in 07-08
NJ,BOS,CHI,CHA
2 pushes

06-07 6 losses:
CLE,MIN,GS,LAC,NOH,JAZZ
6 pushes

05-06 11 losses:
NJ,DET,DEN,MIN,OKC3,LAL,HOU,NOH2
2 pushes

Syrax · 03-21-09, 10:39 PM

A Nice lakers win 2day, had me worried there for a bit though lol

obamaismyuncle · 03-21-09, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by cheme82

Ok Detroit cashed on NHL, 3-0 all wins on bet A.

5 Series left, one play for Saturday: Vancouver ML (-160)

Good luck.

Vancouver down 4-0 end of 2nd period, ouch. Don't know how Phoenix is winning by this margin. I didn't bet this, but wow.

Odraca · 03-21-09, 10:48 PM

why dont people just wait for c bets to occur then put 10 units on them, you would have gone 24-4 last year or whatever for major profit....

a whole lot more than chasing i think