NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[Consigliere]

Consigliere, those graphs are an awesome tool to discern between long term and short term trends. Many thanks to you and all who have put in hard labor on the spreadsheet.

I would argue that having time demarcations in the graph would be helpful as you'd be able to gauge frequency of occurrence in a given time span from where we may be able to drill down to the variable level. For example, if the occurrence of teams FTA<21 rises, then maybe we can deduce a slight shift in the way games are called. Of course, this is simply icing and would depend on time required.

Ill work them them up as the trends come active and can share a sheet so that you can see how they are made and others can chip in other sports.

Nice night tonight fellas

[pip2]

Today's plate:

det and ut cover vs wsh and atl -- From J R ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%) ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak < 0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3

det covers vs wsh From PunterBoss ATS:166-107-6 (1.77, 60.8%)
AD and WP < 50 and o:WP > 50 and ats streak < 0 and o:ats streak > 0 and playoffs = 0 and season >= 2003 and on:H and 8 <= game number <= 63

okc and orl cover vs bos and ny --- from jmon sitpost #1345 ATS:14-36-0 (-5.22, 28.0%)
H and tA(FTA) <= 21 and month=11 and F and -8.5 <= line <= -3 and 2008 <= season and rest < 4 and o:rest < 3 and losses > 0 and o:wins < 7 and o:losses < 9

por covers vs den -- from jmon sitpost#1275 ATS: 18-45-3 (-3.58, 28.6%)
HD and line <= 10 and p:AL and po:blocks >= 10 and rest < 4 and 2007 < season

no covers vs lal -- From me in sitpost #1265 ATS:140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%)
pu margin > 10 and rest < 1 and P:L and season > 2008

RESULTS
Happy to report that mine was the only query that flopped tonight!

2-0: JR's query on det and ut covering vs wsh and atl
1-0 Punterboss' query det covers vs wsh
2-0 jmon's query okc and orl cover vs bos and ny
1-0 jmon's query por covers vs den
0-1 pip's query no covers vs lal

[SportsMind]

This is obviously not something that should really be played on its own, but since TNT started airing games only on Thursday night, Thursday has been the only day that has had the under consistently hit. I believe you can contribute it to the amount of people that watch these games, which cause Vegas to inflate the total. I would not play the under on its own, but it can be used to cement another query.

I would love to get only the games that air on TNT, but I'm not sure that is possible.

H and day = Thursday and ...

7	4-3-0 (1.14, 57.1%)	-6.4	2-5-0 (-7.36, 28.6%)	200.9	5-2 (7.57, 71.4%)	season > 2013
88	44-44-0 (-0.48, 50.0%)	-3.9	39-48-1 (0.48, 44.8%)	202.6	53-35 (3.40, 60.2%)	season > 2012
155	71-83-1 (-1.17, 46.1%)	-3.2	63-90-2 (-1.44, 41.2%)	200.1	89-66 (2.07, 57.4%)	season > 2011
252	119-132-1 (-0.71, 47.4%)	-3.1	101-148-3 (-1.89, 40.6%)	197.0	147-105 (2.38, 58.3%)	season > 2010
324	155-166-3 (-0.11, 48.3%)	-2.9	138-183-3 (-1.27, 43.0%)	196.9	187-137 (2.78, 57.7%)	season > 2009
393	192-196-5 (-0.10, 49.5%)	-2.8	164-225-4 (-1.39, 42.2%)	197.3	229-164 (2.75, 58.3%)	season > 2008
465	232-228-5 (0.07, 50.4%)	-2.9	196-265-4 (-1.57, 42.5%)	197.5	276-189 (2.99, 59.4%)	season > 2007
543	271-267-5 (-0.03, 50.4%)	-3.1	225-310-8 (-1.55, 42.1%)	197.6	324-219 (3.03, 59.7%)	season > 2006
613	303-305-5 (-0.02, 49.8%)	-3.1	253-351-9 (-1.39, 41.9%)	197.2	366-247 (3.06, 59.7%)	season > 2005
687	334-348-5 (-0.07, 49.0%)	-3.1	291-386-10 (-1.07, 43.0%)	196.9	406-281 (3.06, 59.1%)	season > 2004
773	378-389-6 (-0.11, 49.3%)	-3.1	333-429-11 (-0.84, 43.7%)	196.2	456-317 (2.98, 59.0%)	season > 2003

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 6-2 (+3.85)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 0-1 (-1.10)

2. pip2 - 0-1 (-1.05)

3. nash13 - 1-0 (+1.00)

4. Ronald S. - 1-0 (+1.00)

5. hyahya - 1-0 (+1.00)

6. Mako-SBR - 1-0 (+1.00)

7. FlyinAir - 1-0 (+1.00)

8. Consigliere - 1-0 (+1.00)

9. Sports Mind - 0-0 (0.00)

10. Forty Six - 0-0 (0.00)

[JMon]

pip and I were very close to winning ours to have a group sweep. Nonetheless nicely played all

[nash13]

This is obviously not something that should really be played on its own, but since TNT started airing games only on Thursday night, Thursday has been the only day that has had the under consistently hit. I believe you can contribute it to the amount of people that watch these games, which cause Vegas to inflate the total. I would not play the under on its own, but it can be used to cement another query.

I would love to get only the games that air on TNT, but I'm not sure that is possible.

H and day = Thursday and ...

7	4-3-0 (1.14, 57.1%)	-6.4	2-5-0 (-7.36, 28.6%)	200.9	5-2 (7.57, 71.4%)	season > 2013
88	44-44-0 (-0.48, 50.0%)	-3.9	39-48-1 (0.48, 44.8%)	202.6	53-35 (3.40, 60.2%)	season > 2012
155	71-83-1 (-1.17, 46.1%)	-3.2	63-90-2 (-1.44, 41.2%)	200.1	89-66 (2.07, 57.4%)	season > 2011
252	119-132-1 (-0.71, 47.4%)	-3.1	101-148-3 (-1.89, 40.6%)	197.0	147-105 (2.38, 58.3%)	season > 2010
324	155-166-3 (-0.11, 48.3%)	-2.9	138-183-3 (-1.27, 43.0%)	196.9	187-137 (2.78, 57.7%)	season > 2009
393	192-196-5 (-0.10, 49.5%)	-2.8	164-225-4 (-1.39, 42.2%)	197.3	229-164 (2.75, 58.3%)	season > 2008
465	232-228-5 (0.07, 50.4%)	-2.9	196-265-4 (-1.57, 42.5%)	197.5	276-189 (2.99, 59.4%)	season > 2007
543	271-267-5 (-0.03, 50.4%)	-3.1	225-310-8 (-1.55, 42.1%)	197.6	324-219 (3.03, 59.7%)	season > 2006
613	303-305-5 (-0.02, 49.8%)	-3.1	253-351-9 (-1.39, 41.9%)	197.2	366-247 (3.06, 59.7%)	season > 2005
687	334-348-5 (-0.07, 49.0%)	-3.1	291-386-10 (-1.07, 43.0%)	196.9	406-281 (3.06, 59.1%)	season > 2004
773	378-389-6 (-0.11, 49.3%)	-3.1	333-429-11 (-0.84, 43.7%)	196.2	456-317 (2.98, 59.0%)	season > 2003

Just look at the conference parameter: The East has a solid 60% on under.

H and day = Thursday and season >= 2003 and conference and o:conference

291-199 thats awesome. Only switch games if two Western Teams play each other.

107	54-53-0 (0.55, 50.5%)	-1.7	39-68-0 (-1.83, 36.4%)	194.1	58-49 (2.28, 54.2%)	conference = Eastern and o:conference = Western
151	73-76-2 (-0.12, 49.0%)	-4.6	63-86-2 (-0.61, 42.3%)	194.2	96-55 (4.45, 63.6%)	conference = Western and o:conference = Eastern
236	113-122-1 (-0.58, 48.1%)	-3.3	97-137-2 (-1.43, 41.5%)	189.4	136-100 (2.69, 57.6%)	conference = Eastern and o:conference = Eastern
355	180-171-4 (0.15, 51.3%)	-2.8	168-178-9 (-0.12, 48.6%)	200.4	210-145 (2.96, 59.2%)	conference = Western and o:conference = Western

[FunkFreaker]

tA(FGA) > 84.3 and otA(FGA) > 84.4 and H and tA(turnovers) + otA(turnovers)<=30.5

183-117-3 (4.66, 61.0%)

avg total: 207.1

Avg TOs in NBA last season is 14.6 per team. Avg FGA is about 83 last season. So if we have two teams which play with faster than avg pace (more than 84.3 FGA per game) and both teams combined are near to avg or even better in turnovers per game we can expect high scoring game which is proof of my 61% with 300 games sample query!

We have one really bad season here: 2004 with 5-11-0 (-1.78, 31.2%) record. The other seasons look really nice

[hyahya]

A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and P:W and month != 3 and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and D

[pip2]

Only 2 queries found so more of a snack than a meal today:

phi covers vs dal From PunterBoss ATS:166-107-6 (1.77, 60.8%)
AD and WP < 50 and o:WP > 50 and ats streak < 0 and o:ats streak > 0 and playoffs = 0 and season>= 2003 and on:H and 8<=game number<=63

chi covers vs tor from jmon sitpost #1392 -- ATS: 45-9-2 (7.15, 83.3%)
A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and P:W and month != 3 and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and D

[hyahya]

conference != o:conference and p:LF and p:margin < -9 and season > 2010 and site=home and playoffs=0

[hyahya]

HF and line < -6 and p:HFL and p:line < -6 and season >= 2011

[pip2]

HF and line < -6 and p:HFL and p:line < -6 and season >= 2011 and ...
games.........ATS....................... ..OU

10 5-5-0 (0.30, 50.0%)......-9.7 8-2-0 (8.30, 80.0%)..............game number < 10
16 7-9-0 (-1.97, 43.8%)....-10.5 12-4-0 (5.19, 75.0%)............game number < 20
20 10-10-0 (-0.82, 50.0%).-10.4 13-7-0 (1.55, 65.0%)............game number < 30
32 21-11-0 (2.47, 65.6%)..-10.3 17-15-0 (-0.34, 53.1%) ........game number < 40
38 23-15-0 (1.63, 60.5%)..-10.5 20-18-0 (-0.34, 52.6%).........game number < 50
46 28-17-1 (2.05, 62.2%)..-10.4 22-23-1 (-0.98, 48.9%) ........game number < 60
52 32-19-1 (2.24, 62.7%)..-10.4 24-27-1 (-1.89, 47.1%) ........game number < 70

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-13-14 - 10:57a CT

Play Bulls +120

SDQL:

A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and P:W and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and month!= 3 and playoffs=0

SDQL: English

Since 2011, road favorite of no more than 3 or dog of no more than 5, coming of a home win of more than 10 and won previous matchup v. oppt who is on no more than one days rest. As a dog role 74% ml winners with a margin of victory of 6.2

[FunkFreaker]

Just look at the conference parameter: The East has a solid 60% on under.

H and day = Thursday and season >= 2003 and conference and o:conference

291-199 thats awesome. Only switch games if two Western Teams play each other.

107	54-53-0 (0.55, 50.5%)	-1.7	39-68-0 (-1.83, 36.4%)	194.1	58-49 (2.28, 54.2%)	conference = Eastern and o:conference = Western
151	73-76-2 (-0.12, 49.0%)	-4.6	63-86-2 (-0.61, 42.3%)	194.2	96-55 (4.45, 63.6%)	conference = Western and o:conference = Eastern
236	113-122-1 (-0.58, 48.1%)	-3.3	97-137-2 (-1.43, 41.5%)	189.4	136-100 (2.69, 57.6%)	conference = Eastern and o:conference = Eastern
355	180-171-4 (0.15, 51.3%)	-2.8	168-178-9 (-0.12, 48.6%)	200.4	210-145 (2.96, 59.2%)	conference = Western and o:conference = Western

Nash Add playoffs=0 for more correct results. TNT Thursday type of games are part of the regular season only. When playoffs are come is a different story IMO

[nash13]

funny as it may seem when you take playoffs out, the percentage drops a little, but still it is profit for cross conference matches.
137 - 96

[hyahya]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-13-14 - 9:25am PT

Play Bulls +3 -120

SDQL:

A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and P:W and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and month!= 3 and playoffs=0

Same play as JMon except taking the +2.5 and buying it up to +3.

[JMon]

For Best Bet players only...considering a daily best bet is not required, however if you would please let me know if you will not have one. This will help me on gathering plays and who to look for throughout the day.

[nash13]

I think I am off tonight. Concentrate on NHL.

[Consigliere]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-13-14 - 9:25am PT

Play Bulls +3 -120

SDQL:

A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and P:W and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and month!= 3 and playoffs=0

Same play as JMon except taking the +2.5 and buying it up to +3.

Any my concerns with these queries that the previous matchup between these two teams was the previous year? This was the case with NO and LAL last night.

[hyahya]

Any my concerns with these queries that the previous matchup between these two teams was the previous year? This was the case with NO and LAL last night.

A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and playoffs=0

Removing P:W and month!=3 still returns a 64.5% win rate (107-59-5).

[dmitean]

Love the Bulls play regardless of the queries, but also love JMon's query. Makes a lot of sense, since small dog means that teams are favorites and big win the game before, means (usually) that a team in on a good form and to top it of, they also have better rest.

[JMon]

Any my concerns with these queries that the previous matchup between these two teams was the previous year? This was the case with NO and LAL last night.

you can always add

P:season=season

to see how 'same season' interacts.

[Consigliere]

you can always add

P:season=season

to see how 'same season' interacts.

All around looks like a great trend. Just not happy it goes against my beloved Raptors and the fact that they are on fire right now! I even filtered the line for DOGS only and the SU % is basically the same.....a real gem! Well I'm on it so if the Raptors win I'm happy, if they lose I make money! I ran every query in the sheet and nothing showed up but I did add this nugget into our database.

[Consigliere]

I have no best bet for tonight JMon. All queries came up blank for me.

[Mako-SBR]

I have no best bet for tonight JMon. All queries came up blank for me.

Same here, none for me either, despite 70+ queries being active...how will I get my fix!!!

[FlyinAir]

11-13-14 TOB 3:13pm CT


Sac/Grizz Under 191 -110
(Wow, this line moved down to 189 already, I booked this last night, as I always do)

SDQL: tA(points)>=94.5 and p:M3>3.5 and pp:M3>3.5 and tA(o: points)<=94 and season > 2012 and o:rest<2

Were taking a team who averages 95+ppg, coming off back to back games where they were winning by 4 or more after the third Q, team must also allow under 94 pts on average, and their oppt (Sac) is on less than two days rest > since 2012 Record is 21-9-1 on the Under, and 25-6 SU on the team.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-13-14

Plays -some maybe pending.

Jmon - Bulls ML (1 to win 1.2)

Hyahya - Bulls +3 (B.5) (1.2 to win 1)

FlyinAir - Sac un 191 (1.1 to win 1)

[Ronald S.]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-13-14

Plays -some maybe pending.

Jmon - Bulls ML (1 to win 1.2)

Hyahya - Bulls +3 (B.5) (1.2 to win 1)

FlyinAir - Sac un 191 (1.1 to win 1)

I will have a play on Golden St. Just waiting to see if I can get a better line.

The trend is
HF and p:HFL and p:line <= -7.5 and season >= 2008

and it gets a little better with DD spread

[Ronald S.]

Good correlation between Under and Raptors ATS since last year

29-11 (5.90, 72.5%) 30-10-0 (4.46, 75.0%) avg line: -1.4 0-40-0 (-12.10, 0.0%) avg total: 194.9

27-28 (1.60, 49.1%) 23-30-2 (-0.52, 43.4%) avg line: -2.1 55-0-0 (13.81, 100.0%) avg total: 197.4

Home Under and Home Over showed similar correlation. So this seems like a good spot for an IF bet.

IF Raptors Under 196
Raptors -2.5

...Although, just saw JMon's trend and best bet which favors the Bulls so will not be playing this tonight... but definitely something to keep an eye on!

In fact, I think I'll throw a little on a Bulls/Over parlay

[SportsMind]

I will not have a play today

[JMon]

I will have a play on Golden St. Just waiting to see if I can get a better line.

The trend is
HF and p:HFL and p:line <= -7.5 and season >= 2008

and it gets a little better with DD spread

Thanks...I will keep an eye on your official post.

[JMon]

Thanks guys for letting me know if you don't have a play! Appreciate it!

[Ronald S.]

@Sportsmind: That query you did on Thursday TNT games is amazing. I just ran it with team=Bulls and the under is hitting at a 32%-38% clip! Now it looks like it favors under more with Bulls at home than on the road but still favors under whether Bulls are home or away. I was going to first bet Toronto/Under, then changed my mind to Bulls/Over, now I think I'll just go with Bulls lol.

[pip2]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-13-14 - 9:25am PT

Play Bulls +3 -120

SDQL:

A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and P:W and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and month!= 3 and playoffs=0

Same play as JMon except taking the +2.5 and buying it up to +3.

Same play as hyahya except I'm just taking the 2.5...+2½ -101

[Mako-SBR]

@Sportsmind: That query you did on Thursday TNT games is amazing. I just ran it with team=Bulls and the under is hitting at a 32%-38% clip! Now it looks like it favors under more with Bulls at home than on the road but still favors under whether Bulls are home or away. I was going to first bet Toronto/Under, then changed my mind to Bulls/Over, now I think I'll just go with Bulls lol.

I went through the same process you did haha, wound up going with consensus and taking Bulls +2.5 and the Under, 1/2 unit each. BOL all.