Leans for Tuesday 3/3/09

[showtime2000]

Booking,
Orlando -7
Denver(small)
Hockeytown's puck plays except SJ....

[repski]

Minnesota/GS under 227
No Telfair for this game. Normally, this would not mean a whole lot for a Minny team that had depth but it does have ramifications today. After all, with the injuries to Brewer and Jefferson for outstanding amount of time, Telfair was a key part of this team's staggering offense. After all, this team only has five capable scorers and they were Miller, Foye, Gomes and Love. You take out Telfair and this team will have to have Craig Smith and Rodney Carney take over. In an up and down game with the Warriors and with a total that is as high as 229, you have to have efficient shooting. With this team's key guard out, the fact that it will have to rely a bit more on defense, I don't see a great out pouring of scoring. Sure, there can be over 200 points scored in this game and frankly, I expect around a total of 210 but by no means, do I think these teams will have the efficiency to put up a 229 spot here. After all, I have seen enough totals in my time to know what kind of efficient shooting needs to take place for a 229 spot and keep in mind that Minnesota is infamous for their scoring droughts of offense. Also note that GS will not have the services of Ellis or Maggette today so their "slashers" are limited and they will have to rely on more outside shooting as well. Turiaf will likely be out or limited as well for this game. In short, if these two teams were healthy, 229 would be nothing as they could drop a total of 250 without blinking together. But, given that they are banged up, I believe this total will go under the posted total by at least 15 points similar to yesterday's Under in OKC which went under by around 20 points. The Under is 5-0 for the Warriors in their last 5 road games and the Under is 7-3 for the Timberwolves following a double-digit loss at home speaking to their increased focus on defense after a big home loss.

[repski]

WISC-MILWAUKEE -7.5 over Loyola-Chic
Loyolq-Chic is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overalland 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record
Wisc Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Loyola has been outscored by 10.4 ppg on the road and they should lose this one by double digits also.

winner winner chicken dinner

[The_Kid]

The ML and spread are not correlating for the Raptors/Rockets. Throwing a little bit on the ML and I'll see what happens tonight! A spread of -9/+9 should have a ML of -400/+300 but I'm seeing the Raptors at +405. I'm also buying points and taking the Raptors at +10.5.

[pho3nix32]

She's going with the Bulls moneyline tonight, Pho3nix

tnx for the reply CK

[esz04]

The ML and spread are not correlating for the Raptors/Rockets. Throwing a little bit on the ML and I'll see what happens tonight! A spread of -9/+9 should have a ML of -400/+300 but I'm seeing the Raptors at +405. I'm also buying points and taking the Raptors at +10.5.

I agree the ML and spread aren't correlating but I think you have this backwards. A spread of -9/+9 shoudl have a ML of -650/+450 and instead it is -500/+400 which would lead one to believe that there is value on the Raptors ML. The way you're explaining it would give me some pause on taking the Raptors. Someone correct me if i'm wrong, please.

[The_Kid]

I agree the ML and spread aren't correlating but I think you have this backwards. A spread of -9/+9 shoudl have a ML of -650/+450 and instead it is -500/+400 which would lead one to believe that there is value on the Raptors ML. The way you're explaining it would give me some pause on taking the Raptors. Someone correct me if i'm wrong, please.

The ML for the spread now would correspond to a spread of +11/-11 if I'm correct. CK explained it in one of his posts but here is what I copied and pasted onto a document.

-2 -130/+110
-2.5 -140/+120
-3 -155/+135
-4 -200/+170
-4.5 -220/+180
-5/5.5 -240/+190
-6 -270/+210
-6.5 -300/+220
-7 -330/+250
-7.5/-8/-8.5 -360/+280
-9/9.5 -400/+300
-10 -450/+325
-10.5 -475/+350
-11 -500/+375
-11.5 -550/+400
-12 -625/+450
-12.5 -650/+475

[esz04]

I'm just going off the ML/Spread Converter from this site. If you're saying the ML really corresponds to a spread of 11, wouldn't that make you think the Rockets are the choice and not the Raptors?

[handimann]

marcin gortat - best player ever

[wangichu]

I'm just going off the ML/Spread Converter from this site. If you're saying the ML really corresponds to a spread of 11, wouldn't that make you think the Rockets are the choice and not the Raptors?

the theory at work is that a jacked ML of any sort implies that the underdog is the play. The way i look at it is that the books aren't afraid of the rockets covering the 9 point spread, but they don't want people parlaying that ML to other plays as a money multiplier so they make it excessively expensive because the rockets should still eek out the win here.

[repski]

I got FLA ST+12...and piece ot the ML @ +450

[alukk]

well, minesota seems to play no def and no offense

[isiah121]

OK guys, what do you think of Rockets -9? Can they cover? The last time Rockets/Raptors meet, Raptors killed Rockets by 21 points, and Rockets was favored by 5.

[alukk]

Im on the rockets. lets hope they crush em again

[isiah121]

89% betters are on Toronto +8.5 and but still the Rockets line went from 8.5 to 9. What's going on? Should Houston be the pick?

[OperatorX]

hockeytown's going to kill it tonight.. I have one of those feelings.

[OperatorX]

chicago on the other hand. not so much. here's to hoping for some sort of miracle comeback.

[icsky3]

Bobcats looking sooooo money

[isiah121]

Pho3nix32,

what's your thought on the Lakers/Grizzlies game?

[showtime2000]

hockeytown's going to kill it tonight.. I have one of those feelings.

We'll need a miracle in the bos/phil game and tor/nj games to hit the over.

[nonsense48]

bobs and bucks are looking ok and that makes me happy!

[nonsense48]

op-x, i don't mean to be mean but we don't need a miracle comeback from my view.

[pho3nix32]

isiaih - no play on lakers home games (especially if they need to cover DD)

[nonsense48]

DEX, ck, and pho, i didn't go back to see what you guys were on this eve so good luck to you and all the rest of the gang

[nonsense48]

isiaih - no play on lakers home games (especially if they need to cover DD)

lakeshow at home giving DD's is a great play on the grizzles. jmo

[The_Kid]

the theory at work is that a jacked ML of any sort implies that the underdog is the play. The way i look at it is that the books aren't afraid of the rockets covering the 9 point spread, but they don't want people parlaying that ML to other plays as a money multiplier so they make it excessively expensive because the rockets should still eek out the win here.

That makes sense. I can't really explain that but I think wang nailed it right there. CK explained it in one of his threads awhile back but I don't feel like searching for it, haha.

[nonsense48]

it's a no-play for me at this point but i may throw a few on mem closer to gametime.

[anthonydiamondLC]

CK I hope you took my play IU is down 3 with 3 minutes to go.

[alukk]

phoenix is playing better whitout amare. weird

[The_Kid]

Anyone playing the Grizzlies should think about putting a little bit on the ML. Grizzlies have played the Lakers tough at home the past few meetings. Who knows? This could shape up to be like a meeting when the Bobcats came to town earlier and won in 2 OT. Memphis is 3-2 ATS in the last 5 meetings vs the Lakers but to make it interesting, they are 4-1 ATS in the last meetings @ Staples Center with 4 of those covers being 3 SU victories. This is actually the highest spread the Lakers have been favored by in the last couple years and that's no surprise but if Memphis can pull out a win here, it'd make their season.

[pho3nix32]

one lesser mouth to feed for nash...i guess makes their offense better.

[nonsense48]

hopefully the rockets win but not cover tonite so the jazz line will be playable tomorrow...jazz huge

[repski]

Wright St.-9.5

Richmond +5

[heyheyhey]

pho3nix32, great play with bobcats, my only play of the day, good lookin out

[Rellik]

HERE WE GO PISTONS, HERE WE GO..!! CLAP..CLAP..!!