Leans for Tuesday 3/3/09

[OperatorX]

I miss hockeytown.. I have a feeling he's going to come back today and smash the books with his picks.

[shoebox]

Catching a flight on my way to Texas for business, will not post much see you guys on Thursday.

[Dana4U]

Youngstown Spread

repski - I've been away for a week on full out research for the conference tourneys - DEAD ON analysis with the Horizon league - Cleveland St., Wright St., Youngstown St., and Milwaukee - put a play on each of them -17, -10, -2.5, and -7.5 = 3-1 night (worst case scenario), Each of these four are on their home court tonight and beat their opponent twice this season...I do forsee Cleveland St. getting out early as they did on both meetings with Detroit this season and putting the breaks on in the 2H (simple conservation theory of tournament play W is a W.) This is the one where I need to do more work as I'm awaiting the 1H line in accordance with the above analysis.
It's tourney time so anything can happen...but the historic ATS are a good indicator.

BOL tonight!

The Youngstown St. spread is actually just the opposite of what you've written up. They are getting 3 points versus giving 2.5. What gives?

[Dfjay9]

Is there a today?

[handimann]

line came out for the suns at magic game orl -7.

suns are starting off a 4-game road swing and playing the heat tomorrow. nash is "likely" to be back this game so with this in mind, i am leaning toward suns +7 and the over 230.5 as both teams will be letting the 3's fly. shaq is eager to show dwight what's up in his old turf.

any thoughts on this game?

[handimann]

line for the toronto @ houston game moved to -9 as well.

this game scares me too much but i'll be watching it closely

[Dexter]

going to add one college play as well to my card tonight. okl st has won the last 5 home games vs kstate by an avg margin of 11ppg, and are looking to avenge a beating in kansas last year. okl st has been red hot of late winning and covering 5 in a row. early sharp money points to okl st.

-okl st

off this - line shot down to 5. i dont trust my ncaa instincts to play this.

booked-

bulls +2

[handimann]

over/under for suns/magic just moved from 230.5 to 233 too

[bumppinee]

i know Indiana is a jm play, but i really like Sacramento at the crib. i can roll with toronto but not Indiana, who is indiana to be giving points on the road. Sacramento is 4-2 SU at home against indiana

Anyway I'm also rolling with the under in Sacramento, last time these two teams met they were fully loaded, now pacers are without there two leading scorers, Sacramento traded away their second leading scorer Salmon. The under has hit 6 of the last 8 games between these two teams in Sacramento.

[Dana4U]

Secret Plays

Is there a today?

No "official" today.

Unofficially - Cleveland State 1H looks quite interesting.

[Bezerk15]

Dana4u - actually that's what I projected the line to be last night, but am not surprised to see YStU getting +2.5 my local at +3...it's not really that off based looking at how they ended their season - YStU dropped their last two in pretty ugly games.
Some points of interest:
The Penguins have not beat a team three times in a season since 1998.
They are also 2-7 in Horizon tourney play since joining the league.
Have NEVER beaten UIC in three tourney matchups

UIC is on FIRE right now having won it's last 4 and 5 of it's last 6 - after losing 5 in a row.
If Mayo and Kreps (backcourt duo) for UIC play as they have, with the low post presence of VanderMeer (7' center - rebound WHORE), and can put it together - the 3 headed monster will get the win - however, the begining of this discussion was all about ATS - a 2 point win has the Penguins Of YStU covering...

I'll come back later with more info...

[bumppinee]

Denver/Detroit UNDER
- Denver has stayed under the total in seven of 10 overall, five of seven on the road
- Pistons have gone under 5-2 overall, 8-3-1 versus the Western Conference and 23-8-1 at home against a team with a winning road mark
-the under has been the play in 10 of the last 14 clashes in this series.

loving this play.

[repski]

Ottawa +125
-Calgary is just 4-8 against teams with losing records in the second half of the season. Take the home gdog here..

[OperatorX]

ohhhh snap a hockey pick.

[repski]

here are some other NHL leans(maybe HT can help)


Dallas +220
Wash/Car over 6
Fla/Atl over 6
Minn/Van under 5

[Dana4U]

I'm liking Detroit/St.Louis Over 5.5

Osgood playing goalie again - after letting up 4 goals in the 1st period on Saturday.
Detroit getting back two wingers from injury and has called up two additional wingers from the minors.

I'm expecting Detroit to post 4 goals and Osgood letting up 3 for a total of 7.

[repski]

Richmond +5.5

-The Spiders have a 10-2 ATS record as an underdog
-Charlotte team that is just 3-7 ATS as a favorite.

[icsky3]

I'm seeing a bunch of people jump on the Bulls at +2 on the road... The line is starting to drop and this kind of scares me.... still booked Bobcats -2 . Bobcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
They are also 7-3 ATS after two days rest. Love the Cats here.

[peterpan19]

like I posted yesterday I am taking:
Chi +2
they have double revenge on their mind in that one, they lost at home and on the road to Char, add in that char just came home from a long road trip, take Chi here today

I just have to go with Orl -7 here,
they have 6x revenge going today, they lost the last 6 game to Pho and today they just want to get this win here, after they lost at home against Det they really have to show their fans they can still blow someone away, ok Nash will play, but I just like Orl here, and a nice little fact, the last time they won at home against Pho was also on a Tuesday...

I also had NJ +4, but Mil plays everyone tough at home lately, they surely wont look ahead to the Cle game, thats why they probably give 100% tonight, but I still like NJ, they are plaing better as of late and have a few nice games and the trends are in their favor too 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS, but just cant pull the trigger on that one

so only 2 games tonight:
HOU +2
ORL -7

[Dexter]

CK - whats your read on this duke/fsu game?

-line has moved from 11.5 to 12.5
-public is on fsu at 65%
-fsu has covered the last 4 at duke

[hockeytown71]

For what it's worth (NHL):
LA/CBS Under 5.5
Edm/Nash Under 5.5
Ana/Chi Over 5.5

[hockeytown11]

Pucks for today

Boston/Philly over 5.5
NJ/TORONTO OVER 5.5
FLORIDA -135
OTTAWA/CALGARY OVER 5.5
SAN JOSE -1.5 +110(I RARELY LAY 1.5 BUT I AM IN THIS GME)

[OperatorX]

thats what im talkin about!

[BrandonLaz]

Final Card

Indiana -2.5 = Largest
Raptors +9 = Decent Size
Bobcats -2 = Decent Size
New Jersey +4 = Smallest
Florida State Seminoles +12 = Smallest

Play on each individual and threw them all into a small parlay for fun.

[dennisback]

what about detroit y'all ?? i really like det -2.5

[suckatmyjob]

hockeytown11 what you mean you in this game?

[nygmen86]

he means he rarely lays -1.5 for the puckline but he is gonna tonight for san jose

[repski]

Pucks for today

Boston/Philly over 5.5
NJ/TORONTO OVER 5.5
FLORIDA -135
OTTAWA/CALGARY OVER 5.5
SAN JOSE -1.5 +110(I RARELY LAY 1.5 BUT I AM IN THIS GME)

HT...
hasn't Brodeur had 2 shutouts since he's been back??

[repski]

Fsu/duke

CK - whats your read on this duke/fsu game?

-line has moved from 11.5 to 12.5
-public is on fsu at 65%
-fsu has covered the last 4 at duke

dexter thats funny I the trends for FSU also..


FloridaState has covered eight of the last 10 meetings with Duke
The Seminoles are on additional ATS runs of 10-4-1 overall
FSU is 11-3-1 ATS on the road
FSU is 13-4-2 in ATS ACC play
FSU is 13-4-1 ATS as a dog and 7-3-1 ATS as a road dog.

Dex,
I also just my own capping I think FSU has a shot @ an outright win....I may throw a little ML

[Dexter]

added play-

over magic 233

*65% of the public is on the under, yet the total has risen from 231 to 233. shaq should be in foul trouble early vs howard, which will only speed up the game even more.

[DODGER24]

whats going on everyone. been coming to ck's page for about 2 months now finally decided to sign up and track my own record. im not goin to lie im just a rookie who is wanting to get better and i see a lot of people with great capping skills that maybe able to help me

[DODGER24]

today i will go phoenix +7 and over 233. i also like indiana over 215. the play i like the least is detriot -3. with iverson out i believe that the pistons are trying to prove to the world that iverson is the problem. 2 straight wins over 2 of the top 3 teams in the east on the road says to me they may be on a mission and the palace might be a rockin 2nite. just a small wager though becuz i cant fully trust them yet

[TheLemonDropKid]

sorry for my tirade last night folks - i set myself up for those posts from the trolls.

as most of you know i collected a nice amount week ending 2/22. since then all of my larger plays have lost, and i have basically given all those profits back and then some. im now officially down a small amount for the nba season. please do not think my anger has anything to do with financial issues. while these larger plays have lost, im not chasing - and only doing 2x on the plays. im a big boy and i dont bet over my head. the manner in which i have lost many of these games is something i have not seen in years. but it is what it is, and i'll continue to post my 1-2 plays per day and try to build it back. good luck.

dexter-

Hey dex......I feel for ya my man. I TOTALLY know what you're talking about when you say "the manner in which you have lost many of these games". This is exactly what I have spoken of in previous posts regarding my personal experience. Every single time I hear SportsCenter open with "you will never believe this....or this hasn't happened in 30 years", I am on the BAD end of whatever it is. I know I come across as a "rookie" in my posts but I have actually been sports-wagering for 18 years now. I've been UP a little and DOWN a lot. I have often wondered if anyone who is completely honest with themselves are actually UP when it comes to gambling.....and if so, how much. When I found this thread it was like a dream come true because it seemed like I found people that were pretty successful on a regular basis. I did well my 1st week or so tailing you guys and then that frickin' black cloud finally made it's way over here. If there is such a thing as a jinx and I have somehow brought it, I apologize big time. The only reason I started tailing blindly was because I got tired of putting so much time and effort into capping games only to have them lose because of some weird "cosmic shift in our universe".

Anyway....sorry for babbling on......I know it sounds selfish, but I just want to find someone that has consistent success at this crap and I want to follow them play for play without deviating....and I want this f***cking albatross to stay away from me so I don't screw other people up in the process!!!

Okay.....a kleenex would be nice right about now...sniff, sniff.

[cocknocker]

Carjaking non's pick of the Bucks-4

I put together a parlay, if it hits hell yeah! If not then so what?

Bulls +1.5
Bucks-4
Toronto+9
Indiana-2.5
Lakers-15
Maryland+1.5
Clemson-14.5

$15.00 to win $1125.00

[showtime2000]

HT...
hasn't Brodeur had 2 shutouts since he's been back??

Yes he has but he has played 3 straight games after been off for months, this his is 4th game in 6 days, and at this trend on the Devils this season, Over is 11-1-1 in Devils last 13 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 days situation nakes for a good choice.