Leans for Monday 3/2/09

[peterpan19]

cojack is apparently going to LF, but i bet he still plays lots of first as they to rotate byrnes in a few days per week.

drew will completely bust out and be a star this year.

scherzer's future may be as a closer....curious to see how he holds up over a full season

well thats the problem with the OF too, I mean they just have to play byrnes, he just makes too much money to sit on the bench and the fans love him
and Bomel will rotate for sure again this year, wouldnt surprise me at all to see 162 different lineups this year at least it feels like this

I would rather see him (scherzer) as a starter and give us a solid outing every 5th day, but if he doesnt have the stamina to do it, but I just wouldnt "waste" him as a closer, not yet, give that kid a chance, but he is fun to watch

I could easily see Upton, Young, Drew, CoJack, Tracy and Reynolds with 20+ HR at the end of the year if they play, if they can turn it up, man this team looks good and dont forget most of them are under dbacks control a few more years ... bright future ahead ... but thats me as a Dbacks fan

[shoebox]

CK,

You play any seeded matchups blindly in the ncaa tourney, like you do on sp and jm???

[JohnMorr08]

Final Score Prediction:
The Citadel 71
GA South 70

Neither one has anything to play for except the conference tourney seeding. And I know neither one of these doesn't feel they can beat Davidson. So I see this one being a close one. GA Southern playing for pride because these two teams usually are in opposite positions with Georgia Southern usually owning The Citadel.

Any comment are welcomed. I like constructive criticism. I'm trying to close my BarberShop! LOL

ADA - There is much more analysis needed in this game... It's not all numbers. The reason these teams are heading in different directions is that the Citadel have 5 returning members after a terrible year last year and have been playing with revenge on thier minds all year. While Georgia Southern had thier 3 best players SUSPENDED for the year. Southern is on a 1-10 run while the Citadel are on an 11-1 run. Citadel just lost saturday to Wofford - I look for them to bounce back tonight. I'm backing the better team here. The line is going to do exactly what it should - go up.

[peterpan19]

the hornets and cavs just took some cash - hmm...

huge Phi dropped from -3.5 to -2 in a few minutes and Cle went from -2.5 to -3.5 too

[cocknocker]

No not really, shoe. I go on a matchup by matchup basis in the Tournament. I also look at the rpi and the way that teams play on the road which is very important since none of the teams are playing home games in the Tournament. Naturally there will be some non moneylined games and halves in the 1st round, and I intend to exploit that as well. As stated, you can move Memphis all the way onto the final two bracket on mines. i fully expect for them to the final game and win it all. So any matchup that they appear in i am taking them. Hopefully their moneylines will get smaller and more reasonable in the Tournament.

[shoebox]

No not really, shoe. I go on a matchup by matchup basis in the Tournament. I also look at the rpi and the way that teams play on the road which is very important since none of the teams are playing home games in the Tournament. Naturally there will be some non moneylined games and halves in the 1st round, and I intend to exploit that as well. As stated, you can move Memphis all the way onto the final two bracket on mines. i fully expect for them to the final game and win it all. So any matchup that they appear in i am taking them. Hopefully their moneylines will get smaller and more reasonable in the Tournament.

I had memphis to win it all last year and my bracket was busted cause they cant make a damn free throw. I love betting against duke-whatever, and uconn. Duke doesnt usually cover those 30 point spreads, Mike is more interested in resting his guys. Ill use the same strategy this year. Its def a betters paradise thats for sure.

[cocknocker]

The 3.5 for Philly was an ignorant number anyway,as far as Miami is concerned, the Cavs always have tricky things happen with their spreads. it's nothing new. You just have to know when to take them and when to back up off of them. The mere fact that Philly is favored speaks volumes about what will happen. Make no mistake about it, they are both the fishy teams here, and you are on the right side by going against the grain on both. Never have reservations about what plays you have made. If it was capped to the best of your abilities, then it should be so. Do yourself a favor, and not watch the line movement AFTER you have made your wager, because at that point it is not a big deal. Wha's done is done. 50/50 chance that they are going to get it done or not get it done. No since going gray over it.

[bumppinee]

something is fishy about that citadel/georgia southern line is only -6, citadel beat davidison by 18 points, davidson beat georgia southern by 43 points. -6 is way to low to beat a team that lost recently by 43 points. I'm thinking Georgia Southern is the play

[JohnMorr08]

something is fishy about that citadel/georgia southern line is only -6, citadel beat davidison by 18 points, davidson beat georgia southern by 43 points. -6 is way to low to beat a team that lost recently by 43 points. I'm thinking Georgia Southern is the play

Wrong call - The loss to Citadel was without CURRY and the 43 pt win was with CURRY - Only the top scoring player in NCAA.

That shouldn't be included in your analysis.

[AdaBarber]

ADA - There is much more analysis needed in this game... It's not all numbers. The reason these teams are heading in different directions is that the Citadel have 5 returning members after a terrible year last year and have been playing with revenge on thier minds all year. While Georgia Southern had thier 3 best players SUSPENDED for the year. Southern is on a 1-10 run while the Citadel are on an 11-1 run. Citadel just lost saturday to Wofford - I look for them to bounce back tonight. I'm backing the better team here. The line is going to do exactly what it should - go up.

Thanks JM08. I saw those stats and that is the scary part. I just feel like those low spreads tell me something. Davidson is favored over Elon by 14. I can feel that. But that low Citadel spread is bugging me and I think the books are playing me! The Citadel should be favored by 11 or 12.

I will see. I respect your comments and info. U r the master of systems. I am trying to reach you and CK's level. I have to do this one. I put in a lot of work capping this game. And I want to be able to cap for myself efficiently.

As you can see I said I am putting a small wager on this just because I did some actual work. Mostly I wager on logic. My IQ is like over 130 and that is not gonna make me a great capper. I need more skills.

[AdaBarber]

Wrong call - The loss to Citadel was without CURRY and the 43 pt win was with CURRY - Only the top scoring player in NCAA.

That shouldn't be included in your analysis.

Either way the spread is still way too low regardless of Curry. The books know something just like those ridiculous spread for Indy, Atl, LA yesterday!

[peterpan19]

ok one 1st qtr play I like today:
Spurs -2
Yes they played last night and yes they might start out slow again, but they started slow now for 2 consecutive games and you just have to believe that Popovich noticed it and that he will make the proper adjustments, he will also see that the first time they played the Clips they destroyed SA 22-16 at home (SA won by 22 pts at the end) but what matters is they cant start that slow again on the road again.
Also take a look at the first qtr stats, SA won 60 % by an average of 1.2 pts and Clips only won 35 % with a -1.4 difference.

I will give it a shot

[Pensinger1]

The huge money being dropped on NOH and CLE was bound to happen.. Public woke up this morning and saw NOH +3.5 vs. the inferior 76ers and decided to pound the shit outta the line (and most likely bought it up to +4 or +5 which = even more $$ on NOH).. Same thing w/ the Cavs- public sees line at a measely -2.5 against the inferior Heat and decide to lay it down just the same. I don't think the public is considering either situation correctly, nor do they know about Lebron partying his ass off last night (or so I've read on this thread) and I would assume the public does not realize the Cavs are 1-9 SU in Miama since 2003. I would rather fade the Hornets 2nite, but I think both fades are still solid plays.

EDIT: If the cavs had lost last night, then the play would absolutely be on CLE - whatever.

[repski]

one thing that scares me in this Phi/NO game is the Sixers wekness on D against the 3 point shot.....killed them in the 4th against Orl.....

[shoebox]

I doubt Lebron partying has much to do with it. For example, LT used to do lines bang hookers and pull all nighters and still bring the pain on sundays. I dont see alot of stock in the Lebron party last night.

[cheesehead004]

The SF Giants are winning their division this year. I dont have the patience or the time to type up a 10 page research paper on why or why not right now, but I will be placing a $500 wager on the Giants every game of this 162 season, and I will make out like a bandit.

[cocknocker]

The SF Giants have an excellent shot of winning thier division this year. However, if Manny ends up on the Dodgers, it will be tight, and a footrace down to the end. I made a killing last year by taking the opposing team's total to go under in the first five innings whenever Lincecum pitched (and Cliff Lee)

[cheesehead004]

My best play last year was taking the Giants' total under any time Matt Cain was on the mound. Poor guy was lucky to get like 1 run from the Giants per 9 innings of work Hopefully that trend can continue this season.

But yeah, I dont even care what happens to Manny at this point. It's obvious what state of his career he is at. Get the big payday, and suck it up as an old veteran when everyone is expecting like 40 HRs and a 135 OPS+. Lulz.

[LVD09]

2-1 Yesterday

DAL-6 OKC took them to overtime the last time even without their star. If Dallas is serious about being a contender then this should be a blow out.

PHI-3.5 Philly blowing up big leads. Lost to ORL last time and i think this is a good spot for them to gain some swagger back. I know they're itching to play.

good luck and good day

[handimann]

ever since the suns changed management, they have made really bad moves when it comes to getting rookies. i dont see any changes anytime soon.

robert sarver is the bane of my existence for the past 5 years. everytime i see rondo, fernandez, nate robinson, iguodala/deng, or even joe johnson play, i cringe in pain for what could have been.

[vassman86]

I'm leaning towards the under in the oklahoma/dallas game, last score was 108 to 110 for a total of 218, the line was set at 209, 28 of those points came in overtime, so the regulation score was 190, last game played in oklahoma between the two teams the total went under. add in the factor that durant is out and dallas is coming off a btb the under looks good.

I wanted to give this a bump! The under looks like a favourable play here.

[ASH0479]

I wanted to give this a bump! The under looks like a favourable play here.

I like the under as well, probably going to pound Dallas -6, now that Durant and Jeff Green are both out, I cannot see the Thunder hanging around unless Westbrook drops 50+

[repski]

Notre Dame -3
Nova' has been slumping a bit as of late barely winning by a bucket at DePaul and losing at home to Georgetown. With a trip to the Big Dance secure the team hasn't played with a great deal of effort as of late. And in reality they haven't been that impressive on the road. Not only did they struggle to beat DePaul but they lost at West Virginia by 21, only beat Providence by 3 and couldn't put away South Florida winning by just 9 points. While I think this Villanova team can go a long way come tournament time they haven't been playing up to snuff.
At 16-12 N.D. need every win possible at this stage of the season to secure an NCAA Tournament bid. They are off a loss at Connecticut but overall played very well in a 72-65 defeat. Notre Dame has just two home losses on the season to UConn and Marq.

[peetlui]

Notre Dame -3
Nova' has been slumping a bit as of late barely winning by a bucket at DePaul and losing at home to Georgetown. With a trip to the Big Dance secure the team hasn't played with a great deal of effort as of late. And in reality they haven't been that impressive on the road. Not only did they struggle to beat DePaul but they lost at West Virginia by 21, only beat Providence by 3 and couldn't put away South Florida winning by just 9 points. While I think this Villanova team can go a long way come tournament time they haven't been playing up to snuff.
At 16-12 N.D. need every win possible at this stage of the season to secure an NCAA Tournament bid. They are off a loss at Connecticut but overall played very well in a 72-65 defeat. Notre Dame has just two home losses on the season to UConn and Marq.

Took them in a small parlay with The Citadel -5.5 and Philly -2.5 .

[cap10]

hey all;; after reading up i feel this 8tm ml/ats parlay has a fighting chance;; pays 32-1

mia +3.5
atl ml
dal ml
woff -11; prob should buy this down to -10 for peace of mind
ndame ml
cit ml
tx ml
nmexst ml

gl all

[fusion]

hey ck, it has been great following your post almost everyday for the past two months. I have learnt alot from the ck mafias. However, most of the time I am still tailing and i am not confident in my self handicapping. I hope to improve on this and cover my losses. Just wana ask do you know where can i get the lines for past matches? I hope to do some historical checking. Thanks in advance

[google99]

"

[Dexter]

The SF Giants are winning their division this year. I dont have the patience or the time to type up a 10 page research paper on why or why not right now, but I will be placing a $500 wager on the Giants every game of this 162 season, and I will make out like a bandit.

They certainly have the pitching. Lincecum is a freak.

[handimann]

I would love to see my beloved snakes in the world series again, but I think the big question is, how will the young guys do this year ?

I mean catcher position with chris is weak, no need to talk about that one, he is only there bc he can manage all the pitchers we have very well.

Now how will Drew, Upton and Young do, can they keep it up and take it to the next level ?

Also what to do with the infield, Reynolds, Tracy and CoJack, just too many guys for the corners ? Move CoJack to the outfield again or maybe trade one of them for a arm in the pen ?

Also how will Bomel do this year, I think he clearly cost us a few games last year with his bad coaching ?

I think the potential is there dex

(and you gotta love the starting rotation if it looks like this:
Webb, Haren, Garland, Davis and Scherzer (man this kid has a rocket, he went through the system in no time)

do we have another arizona fan in the house here? i'm excited for the snakes this year too and think they'll put up quite a fight for the nl west crown even if manny ends up in SF or LA. all that farm talent is thriving in the big leagues and the rotation is solid with garland filling in the 3/4 spot.

[fusion]

thanks alot google99.

[handimann]

They certainly have the pitching. Lincecum is a freak.

why is everybody on the giants? i don't understand. yes, lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball hands down. but they have no offense whatsoever. i bet some triple-A teams have a better offense than they do. they need manny or they're not going to score enough runs for their pitchers to win any games.

[NBA Hero]

green and durant out for okc

[NBA Hero]

weaver, westbrook, kristic will carry the load which they havent done since ......college days for westbrook and green?

[The_Kid]

NBA Hero already stated that Jeff Green is out. He will be joining Kevin Durant on the sidelines with a back injury.

The Los Angeles Times reports that Zach Randolph is questionable for Monday's game vs the Spurs because he flew home Saturday to be home with his ailing father and they don't know when he'll return.

Eric Gordon is questionable as well with a bruised left shoulder but Coach Dunleavy said he's more likely to return Wednesday vs Memphis.

Corey Maggette could be benched for a game this week, possibly Tuesday or Wednesday, though so far Don Nelson has not given any concrete indications.

Allen Iverson will miss his third straight game with a back injury against the Nuggets on Tuesday, according to ESPN.

[Dexter]

why is everybody on the giants? i don't understand. yes, lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball hands down. but they have no offense whatsoever. i bet some triple-A teams have a better offense than they do. they need manny or they're not going to score enough runs for their pitchers to win any games.

i dont think the giants will win the division even with manny, but they should be able to cash many tickets along the way in the right spots.