Leans for Monday 3/2/09

[pho3nix32]

is ricky rubio coming out this draft? i thought he was waiting until next year. damn the suns will have to try to trade up then. but i still have hope in dragic. i like how gentry's been playing him a lot.

ever since the suns changed management, they have made really bad moves when it comes to getting rookies. i dont see any changes anytime soon.

[peetlui]

I'm leaning towards OKC whom we all know have been "cover machines". Mind you this is not a confirmation but I do like them in this spot. This will be a back to back for Dallas on the road while OKC will be rested up and at home playing with revenge. I know they're not playing for anything but pride but they don't give up, it's never a given with them. They were just on the road at Dallas this past Friday and lost 110-108. Right now I don't see why we won't have a similar performance tonight. Home dog with the points strong lean. Opinions are welcome.

[Hue]

My Leans Tomorrow..
NO +2
Was +4.5 (Sure thing)
Cle -4
Dal -5


Current record (6-2)

[joanapoker]

Good to see you back CK. I'm not having a good start this March and would need the help of you and the Mafia to get back on the winning track wagering-wise.

line: ah@ww+4.5
pick: ah-4.5

......
.....
Keys to a Hawks cover:

1. Hawks are healthy.
2. Hawks lost by a squeaker today and will be seeing red tomorrow.
3. Hawks are #4 in the east and holds a slim lead over Miami.
4. Wizards have yet to win ATS against teams above 0.500 this 2nd half of the season.
5. Wizards are at last place in the east and looks forward in staying there to get a shot at Ricky Rubio.

I like this pick very much!
I'm also thinking in going with the UNDER 198.5

[showtime2000]

No worries CK, no need to apoligize. You have an outstanding record and it speaks for itself. Keep up the great work!

Liking Philadelphia and Miami tonight.
In pucks i'm liking the Over in Colorado/New York. Let's see if i get the blessing from hockeytown.

[Jimbo42]

On OKC today- Just broke their 8 game losing streak...got that confidence back..Dallas B2B...and the revenge factor. Lean on ATL- had a horrendous ending to their last road trip.. look for them to want to start this little three game east trip off with a win.

[Fugetaboutit]

Long time lurker, first time poster.

Just thought I'd share some information.

A night club I work out had a huge LeBron James party last night in Miami. That means he got off the plane from a hard fought Atlanta game last night and went straight to the club and partied all night. I'm sure a ton of players do this, but I just thought I'd share.

[peterpan19]

ok guys, forget about last night and lets make some money today, well btw forget about the whole week, good thing its over...

Phi -2, they are 4-1 SU at home against NOH, they have tripple revenge factor going for them and dont forget NOH played last night and just barely won against New Jersey, on the other hand we have Phi, who just came home after a road trip and played a very solid game against Orl and also could have won that game, I have a very good feeling about that Phi team, their bad streak is over and they are about to start a new hot one, so play them while the spreads are low ... and dont forget NOH is only 3-9 ATS on b2b games this year plus

Mia +4, most interesting fact is that they are 10-1 SU at home against Cleveland, dont forget 3 of their losses came on b2b games against Det, noh and Atl, and they were all road games... add in that Cle just won the game last night by a point and that they almost collapsed at the end, this is a perfect spot for Mia, I dont say that they will win, but it should be a close one and might come down to who has the ball at the end ... anyway I expect a nice game James vs Wade ... should be fun to watch

ok thats it for today, lets hope someone else likes the games too....


edit: seems like I am not the only one on Phi and Mia today....
that night club info is nice ... make me feel even better now
good that I booked my plays in the morning, Phi upto -3.5 (I would still take it) and Mia down to +2.5 (with that party info I would take that one too, but I would take the ML now, if I had to play it, just take a look at the record the Heat have over the Cavs at home, almost same thing like last week in Houston, the Heat own them...)

GL

[Pensinger1]

This one's for my man, Pickn'Parlays,

10 Reasons Why PHI -2 is a Solid Play Tonight:

- Line-movement: With 36% of the public on PHI, the line has moved from -1.5 to -2.5. Fade the CP3-loving squares FTW.
- Hornets in a Back2Back: Hornets are terrible in back2back situations this year on the road (3-7 SU, 2-7-1 ATS)
- Defense: PHI plays much better D at home. NO plays much worse D on the road.
- Head-to-Head ATS: Home team is 6-2 ATS. Favorite is 4-1 ATS.
- Hornets ATS: Hornets are cold against the spread recently, having gone 0-5 ATS overall, 1-4 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference & 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
- Revenge: PHI lost to the Hornets earlier this year in NO, 86-101.
- PHI does not lose back2back @ Home: 76ers have only had 2 stretches this year where they lost back2back games at home (a 1-point-squeaker to BOS on Feb 3rd & a 93-101 loss to CLE on Dec 10th)
- Hornets Winning-Streak Will End: Hornets have won their last 4 games. They have now won 4 games in-a-row, four times this season. They have yet to win 5 games in a row.
- Motivation/Discipline: Favors the 76ers. PHI coming off a dissapointing home-loss to ORL, while NO coming off a squeaker of a win in NJ.
- CK Mafia Pounding PHI-2: Dare you fade the highly successful CK Mafia? Book that shit.

EDIT: Line is now -3.5 with a whopping 40% on PHI.. This play is looking better by the minute.

3-team teaser: Tease the home-dogs FTW. WASH +10.5, MIA +10, OKC +11.

[lonesomeloser]

No worries CK, no need to apoligize. You have an outstanding record and it speaks for itself. Keep up the great work!

Liking Philadelphia and Miami tonight.
In pucks i'm liking the Over in Colorado/New York. Let's see if i get the blessing from hockeytown.

What outstanding record? The invisible one that is never documented? What is the reasoning behind that I wonder. Failure.

[lonesomeloser]

This one's for my man, Pickn'Parlays,

10 Reasons Why PHI -2 is a Solid Play Tonight:

- CK Mafia Pounding PHI-2: Dare you fade the highly successful CK Mafia? Book that shit.

3-team teaser: Tease the home-dogs FTW. WASH +10.5, MIA +10, OKC +11.

Lol, that is how you get rich, fade the mafia and their joe public plays.

[showtime2000]

What outstanding record? The invisible one that is never documented? What is the reasoning behind that I wonder. Failure.

I'll only respond to you this one time lonesomeloser and then i'm done with you.


Your a complete ASS with no insight on any information you provide. Your silly comments, your rudeness, your disrespect has gained you the ultimate reward of being the grand JACKASS of all time.

[AdaBarber]

i'd would stay away from the atl. hawks... 83% of the public so far on atl and they wont get into their hotel rooms till early morning... snow storm on the east coast... so far im totally down w/ the miami pick.. cleve. has a division game next and then plays boston... randolph for the clippers will not play vs. the spurs monday night

I am not doubting those cappers who have a pretty good track on the ATL game. That snow storm is a problem right now and that is my key to taking the hapless Wizzles.
My sister is still in Vegas because of this storm system and she is going to Charleston where there wasn't a lick of snow.

BOL to the Hawks backers but for my sake go Wizzles!

[pho3nix32]

What outstanding record? The invisible one that is never documented? What is the reasoning behind that I wonder. Failure.

a day never goes by without this type of insightful post...

[repski]

lets hope the Philly game doesn't get cancelled with the airports closed in Philly

[Dexter]

3/3 - Tue

the bobcats will be playing their first home game off of a long west coast trip - awaiting are the new look bulls who looked primed for a playoff push. the bulls have won 3 of their last 6 su in charl. projected line of +3.

-bulls
______________
the pistons will also be playing their first home game off of a long east coast trip. they have the boston hex working against them as well. the nuggets are coming off a su loss, and you have to think billups will be pumped to show up his old team and get back in the win column. revenge game as well for a denver team that lost at home to the pistons earlier in the year. i will go big on this game if ai is playing and possibly if i win my heat play tonight. the pistons are clearly much better off without the answer.

-nuggets (possibly big)
_______________

[Dexter]

i'd would stay away from the atl. hawks... 83% of the public so far on atl and they wont get into their hotel rooms till early morning... snow storm on the east coast... so far im totally down w/ the miami pick.. cleve. has a division game next and then plays boston... randolph for the clippers will not play vs. the spurs monday night

sorry about last week if you tailed me dan - hopefully you were away for the weekend and missed those larger plays. my other games did ok, but you may have just been playing the big ones which got drilled last week.

[Dexter]

Long time lurker, first time poster.

Just thought I'd share some information.

A night club I work out had a huge LeBron James party last night in Miami. That means he got off the plane from a hard fought Atlanta game last night and went straight to the club and partied all night. I'm sure a ton of players do this, but I just thought I'd share.

awesome info - extra unit on the heat for me

[Dexter]

So far I like the Cardinals to win their division and to cash mega tickets this year. Of all the teams that i am researching, they seem to have the moest upside outside of the Dodgers if they sign Manny Ramirez. The Yanks and Rangers look to be a great teams to take the team total over on, and the San Francisco Giants are shaping up to be the best under team, as well as to take the under the team total for the 1st half (5 innings) ofthe opposition. With Randy Johnson in the fold, they can't miss for quick starts to their games.

my play for the world series will be the drays over the dbacks - pitching, pitching, pitching and both teams have solid arms. the dbacks not as deep but have one of the best 1/2 combos in webb, haren. scherzer is the wildcard.

cards success will be dependent on how carpenter comes back - but you cant argue with a larussa coached team.

early sleeper team i like is the mariners (at home esp) to cash lots of tickets at value. the indians, and braves should also offer good value off of bad years.

im still reseraching lots of teams, so more to come as the season approaches.

[Dexter]

I dont see anyreason not to..........Both opponents on b2b, cavs historically struggle in Miami........Philly might just run em out of the gym, there lack of defense worries me though.........

philly only gives up 96ppg shoe

[joanapoker]

Booked

ATL/WAS UNDER 198.5 (I'm staing away from the spread, but the Under gained more power to me. The total line is well set, but I think ATL will just fail to go over 100 and I like this trend: both teams this season in Divison games are 6-16 O/U)

[cocknocker]

Dex, the Mariners overspent last year and did not get good returns in value for what they put out. Beltre is a malcontent...But wht they have going for them is a good closer (Putz) and an outstanding Hall Of Fame lead off hitter (Ichiro). What concerned me about them when I researched their squad was a lack of true overall depth and a bullshit farm system. Which means that they are one injury away from going into the tank again this year. Washburn is a home run waiting to happen.

[peterpan19]

my play for the world series will be the drays over the dbacks - pitching, pitching, pitching and both teams have solid arms. the dbacks not as deep but have one of the best 1/2 combos in webb, haren. scherzer is the wildcard.

I would love to see my beloved snakes in the world series again, but I think the big question is, how will the young guys do this year ?

I mean catcher position with chris is weak, no need to talk about that one, he is only there bc he can manage all the pitchers we have very well.

Now how will Drew, Upton and Young do, can they keep it up and take it to the next level ?

Also what to do with the infield, Reynolds, Tracy and CoJack, just too many guys for the corners ? Move CoJack to the outfield again or maybe trade one of them for a arm in the pen ?

Also how will Bomel do this year, I think he clearly cost us a few games last year with his bad coaching ?

I think the potential is there dex

(and you gotta love the starting rotation if it looks like this:
Webb, Haren, Garland, Davis and Scherzer (man this kid has a rocket, he went through the system in no time)

[AdaBarber]

Georgia Southern VS The Citadel

Okay these two teams play in the same conference as Davidson. So there is no chance that these two will be dancing. The Citadel is experiencing one of the better years in bball while Georgia Southern is going in the other direction.
The line for this game has The Citadel-5.5. This line seems pretty low for the third best team in the conference versus the third worst team in the conference.
I am from South Carolina so I chose to cap this game thoroughly. I usually just look over the numbers and go by the present situations.
Okay no bad weather for these two. None of these two got any snow and Georgia Southern doesn't have to go through Atlanta to get to The Citadel.
I have adjusted the numbers accordingly and predicted the outcome of this game. No these numbers are not made up.

Here we go!

Georgia Southern Projections:
FG% 43.3% 37.5136 PTS
FT% 66.6% 12.1782 PTS
3PT% 33.7% 20.5086 PTS
70.2226 PTS

The Citadel Projections:
FG% 45.8% 34.8008 PTS
FT% 71.4% 13.209 PTS
3PT% 36.3% 20.1168 PT
68.1266 PTS
3.0000 Home Ct
71.1266 PTS
Final Score Prediction:
The Citadel 71
GA South 70

This is the first time I am using this system of adjustments. I think I have one more item to tweak, but this is the prototype. I believe I am close because I would expect this line to be at least 9 to 10 points. The opening line was G Southern+5.5.

I am putting a small wager on GA South fifteen minutes B4 gametime as the line has moved a half of point in G Southern's favor as I was typing this. I am also waiting on the totals. I expect it to be around 139 to 141.I expect ithe line to move some more with the public favoring The Citadel since they have been a covering machine.

Neither one has anything to play for except the conference tourney seeding. And I know neither one of these doesn't feel they can beat Davidson. So I see this one being a close one. GA Southern playing for pride because these two teams usually are in opposite positions with Georgia Southern usually owning The Citadel.

Any comment are welcomed. I like constructive criticism. I'm trying to close my BarberShop! LOL

[OperatorX]

I haven't seen this many people backing phili since.. well.. a while

[ASH0479]

.....

Split yesterday....Matt Barnes and Shaq Daddy decided to show up against the Lakers, oh well...

Two leans for today...

Miami +4 (booked last night) current down to +2.5...Cleveland coming in from a b2b and their 4th on 5 nights, it's going to take a toll...In addition, snow in the ATL delayed travel plans while the Heat were sleeping comfortably. Miami always plays Cleveland tight and I expect nothing different here, maybe even an outright win (ML possibility)

Philly -3 ; Philly is a tough team at home; play much better D in their backyard, giving up 96PPG, NO comes in off a tough game last night, I think Philly is going to run them out of the gym

BOL to everyone

[robertg]

I'm leaning towards the under in the oklahoma/dallas game, last score was 108 to 110 for a total of 218, the line was set at 209, 28 of those points came in overtime, so the regulation score was 190, last game played in oklahoma between the two teams the total went under. add in the factor that durant is out and dallas is coming off a btb the under looks good.

couldn't agree more, i'm on it.

[esz04]

Dex, the Mariners overspent last year and did not get good returns in value for what they put out. Beltre is a malcontent...But wht they have going for them is a good closer (Putz) and an outstanding Hall Of Fame lead off hitter (Ichiro). What concerned me about them when I researched their squad was a lack of true overall depth and a bullshit farm system. Which means that they are one injury away from going into the tank again this year. Washburn is a home run waiting to happen.

Putz is no longer on the Mariners. Traded to the Mets this offseason.

[AdaBarber]

I haven't seen this many people backing phili since.. well.. a while

I am gonna sit that one out. This looks like the Boston and Lakers consensus. I am gonna try something new. I see the first game played is an indicator for the books and maybe us. I am going to document this. It seems that what happened yesterday happens often when the situation is presented. Hence all the low spreads.

[Dexter]

I would love to see my beloved snakes in the world series again, but I think the big question is, how will the young guys do this year ?

I mean catcher position with chris is weak, no need to talk about that one, he is only there bc he can manage all the pitchers we have very well.

Now how will Drew, Upton and Young do, can they keep it up and take it to the next level ?

Also what to do with the infield, Reynolds, Tracy and CoJack, just too many guys for the corners ? Move CoJack to the outfield again or maybe trade one of them for a arm in the pen ?

Also how will Bomel do this year, I think he clearly cost us a few games last year with his bad coaching ?

I think the potential is there dex

(and you gotta love the starting rotation if it looks like this:
Webb, Haren, Garland, Davis and Scherzer (man this kid has a rocket, he went through the system in no time)

cojack is apparently going to LF, but i bet he still plays lots of first as they to rotate byrnes in a few days per week.

drew will completely bust out and be a star this year.

scherzer's future may be as a closer....curious to see how he holds up over a full season

[shoebox]

Dex,
I dont know why I thought they gave up more, that was a false statement there 10th in the league. Thanks for pointing that out

[Dexter]

the hornets and cavs just took some cash - hmm...

[AdaBarber]

94% of the public is on the Citadel but the line has just moved back down to -5.5 from 6 in the last 20 minutes. Now we see a little RLM. Should I book now or wait?

[cocknocker]

AdaBarber,

Wait and see.

[AdaBarber]

Thanks CK! I guess I'll take my butt to work and cut some heads. And see how I am looking when I get home. Anybody using a wireless service for their laptops? Or has anyone tried the prepaid service? I can't get nice with this if I am not accessible.