CK Mafia Leans for 3/1/09..

peetlui · 03-01-09, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

of course they should be posting their lines - but by not posting a line, that makes it easier to claim a win later if the final falls right around the number.

i always post a line and have never once made a change to it.

Thank you, my point EXACTLY.

BrandonLaz · 03-01-09, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

Alright people listen up......
Can you cap at 55% clip???
Can you tail at 55% clip???
Can you manage your money???
If you can you can win long term, if not get out. These are big boy games, not something to F around with. I dont want all you new guys to get burnt cause one capper or the another capper gets hot. I have seen people lose there house, families, life savings due to gambling. Now, I dont want to see this happen to anyone so if you think you found the golden key here you havent. If you can follow the 3? you belong. If not please move along to something else.

Dont play big boy games if you cant handle it.

Actually to do it full time all you honestly have to do is cap at 53% so you are off by 2%. It is a common misconception it needs to be at 55%. A 100 dollar capper hitting 53% after 1000 plays would have a profit of $1,300. At 55% a profit of $5,500 this is just betting each game straight amount 100. No large plays or anything that is where bankroll management comes into play to make more off of your wins and lose less on losses.

Pho3nix I hope that over hits if it does then I am 3-2 today if not 2-3. Hopefully your run continues for all of us tonight. Everyone else sorry about the Boston pick seemed like a lot of trends going are way we will get it back tomorrow.

shoebox · 03-01-09, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by BrandonLaz

Actually to do it full time all you honestly have to do is cap at 53% so you are off by 2%. It is a common misconception it needs to be at 55%. A 100 dollar capper hitting 53% after 1000 plays would have a profit of $1,300. At 55% a profit of $5,500 this is just betting each game straight amount 100. No large plays or anything that is where bankroll management comes into play to make more off of your wins and lose less on losses.

Pho3nix I hope that over hits if it does then I am 3-2 today if not 2-3. Hopefully your run continues for all of us tonight. Everyone else sorry about the Boston pick seemed like a lot of trends going are way we will get it back tomorrow.

just making a general statement

Jimbo42 · 03-01-09, 07:37 PM

Oops you guys may be talking about me...OK booked plays
Minnesota +6.5
San Antonio +4.0
Toronto + 8 (2pt. buy)
GL

nonsense48 · 03-01-09, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by suckatmyjob

hey non i just realize alot of your picks are for the favorite

i have 5 favs and mich.st. was a dog.

peetlui · 03-01-09, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by Jimbo42

Oops you guys may be talking about me...OK booked plays
Minnesota +6.5
San Antonio +4.0
Toronto + 8 (2pt. buy)
GL

Not you in particular ....just anyone in general. Gl Jimbo

wangichu · 03-01-09, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by LUNT101

There is some middle ground between living for CK's opinion and not caring at all about it. I consider myself a decent NBA capper but CK has much more experience with gambling in general than I do and I value his insight and information. Doesn't mean I "live" for his opinion, but I do like to hear what he is thinking when he is at the top of his game.

i agree, but it's moreso his analysis than his picks that i look for. When i first started capping NBA last season, CK was the big dog on the covers forum and i followed him and his write ups very closely. As such i consider him to have been my sensei in NBA capping and very much value his thought process on games. It helps heighten my perspective and open my eyes to angles that my research didn't cover. I never tail him blindly and occassionally fade him if my research and feelings dictate, but his words can convince me to change stance on a game so i will watch him as long as he is willing to provide insight, and once i've taken his words in, i will objectively form my own conclusions. Just because i'm an independent thinker doesn't mean i can't continue to learn from him.

I guess i'm just elaborating and agreeing with what you said lunt. good luck tonight man. Go hawks/pacers

BCaldwell32 · 03-01-09, 07:46 PM

lol sometimes all the favorites win, what does saying he bet all the favorites prove?

nonsense48 · 03-01-09, 07:49 PM

Originally posted by BrandonLaz

Actually to do it full time all you honestly have to do is cap at 53% so you are off by 2%. It is a common misconception it needs to be at 55%. A 100 dollar capper hitting 53% after 1000 plays would have a profit of $1,300. At 55% a profit of $5,500 this is just betting each game straight amount 100. No large plays or anything that is where bankroll management comes into play to make more off of your wins and lose less on losses.

Pho3nix I hope that over hits if it does then I am 3-2 today if not 2-3. Hopefully your run continues for all of us tonight. Everyone else sorry about the Boston pick seemed like a lot of trends going are way we will get it back tomorrow.

in my opinion, if you're not hitting 60% or better consistantly you should pack up and go home. that taking into account a bad run from time to time. 52%-55% is not even worth it. you're sending 100g's to win 13 hun. not very good odds. just my opinion.

shoebox · 03-01-09, 07:51 PM

Originally posted by nonsense48

in my opinion, if you're not hitting 60% or better consistantly you should pack up and go home. that taking into account a bad run from time to time. 52%-55% is not even worth it. you're sending 100g's to win 13 hun. not very good odds. just my opinion.

No one hits 60% long term non

LUNT101 · 03-01-09, 07:52 PM

wang, I feel the same way you do. The analysis is the important part because it teaches you different ways to look at games that you hadn't thought of. I know for me, ever since I came to this thread I've become a much better capper.

GL to you too tonight buddy. Having watched about 60% of Pacer games this year (I go to IU), I'm getting a good feeling about this game just by watching the first half. The Pacers are playing at a pace they are comfortable with (no pun intended).

suckatmyjob · 03-01-09, 07:53 PM

nothing bcald was just looking at earlier posts that's all yea i remember in the forum yesterday you were all over mi state your alma

and you bet a dog on 2nd half on phoenix

yea i've seen many times when either all dogs cover or all favorites cover

jspectyper · 03-01-09, 07:53 PM

Took Cavs (-4) and Tor/Dal over 205.

nonsense48 · 03-01-09, 07:54 PM

well said wang and that's the way it should be. not just drooling waiting for him to post his picks so as to tail him and a few of you others here but we have more ppl that come here just for that and they could care less about what he has to say in his write-ups. just give 'em those picks

nonsense48 · 03-01-09, 07:55 PM

i come very close shoe. and for the year i'm closer to 65% consistantly

Karayilan9 · 03-01-09, 07:56 PM

Spurs 1st QTR +2. Spurs are have won 60% of their 1st QTR's, Portland have won %45 of theirs. Could have an edge here only problem is I havn't had time to cap this game yet, if I thought Spurs could win the game outright I would have jumped at this but now its going to just be a coin flip...

Cleveland luks better.

Shoebox
No one hits 60% long term non

I personally know cappers who hit over 60% long term, if your hitting these rates over the long term the books, tv channels etc snap you up, not sure if they do the same in America though?

BCaldwell32 · 03-01-09, 07:56 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

No one hits 60% long term non

I agree, 60% longterm is like hitting 400 for entire season in baseball!!

nonsense48 · 03-01-09, 07:57 PM

i wouldn't do this for 55%. it's not worth it.

BCaldwell32 · 03-01-09, 07:59 PM

Hang in there New jersey, have them big for game and put down sizeable bet on 2nd half.

nonsense48 · 03-01-09, 07:59 PM

i never did baseball until a couple of days ago and i'm just learning. not sure i'm even gonna stay with it as it's too slow and boring for me.

nonsense48 · 03-01-09, 08:01 PM

but for football and basketball entire yr. i'm over 60% yr. after yr.

shoebox · 03-01-09, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by nonsense48

but for football and basketball entire yr. i'm over 60% yr. after yr.

If your hitting 60% clipp your one of the only long term cappers I have ever known to do it.

I cant cap at 60% your a better capper than me..

nonsense48 · 03-01-09, 08:06 PM

s.a.m.j., i wager on dogs from time to time if i cap it out for the dog to win but i'd much rather bet on a small fav in fb and bb.

BCaldwell32 · 03-01-09, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by nonsense48

i wouldn't do this for 55%. it's not worth it.

Are you kidding me, my standard unit is 300 a game and average about 5 of those bets per day with some smaller bets mixed in. Hitting at 55% over the course of a year you can make at least 35k.

shoebox · 03-01-09, 08:08 PM

Long term being over 2000 games capped

I need to start tailing you nonsense

nonsense48 · 03-01-09, 08:08 PM

shoe, you're a great capper. actually one of the better cappers i've come across around here. most of the pro cappers i know are better than 60%. especially the ones i know that do nothing but this for a living.

pho3nix32 · 03-01-09, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

cmon nonsense - the consensus play on the board was the celtics....do you really need to do an endzone dance?

i know you've been in the winners circle many times in the past!

nice hit, but a lot of people here lost money on that game...

good morning guys...i wake up to see my money go down the drain with boston and the under

hopefully my over for dm/tr cashes...

on a sidenote, kudos to dex for a wonderful job on the thread today

nonsense48 · 03-01-09, 08:10 PM

shoe, my feeling is that there are a few cappers here and if all of us got together and all decided on a select few games a day and pounded them, we'd do great.

pho3nix32 · 03-01-09, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

Alright people listen up......
Can you cap at 55% clip???
Can you tail at 55% clip???
Can you manage your money???
If you can you can win long term, if not get out. These are big boy games, not something to F around with. I dont want all you new guys to get burnt cause one capper or the another capper gets hot. I have seen people lose there house, families, life savings due to gambling. Now, I dont want to see this happen to anyone so if you think you found the golden key here you havent. If you can follow the 3? you belong. If not please move along to something else.

Dont play big boy games if you cant handle it.

perfectly said shoe

The_Kid · 03-01-09, 08:12 PM

Taking the OVER 104.5 in the 2H between the Pacers and Nuggets. I don't think both teams could have shot worse than they did in the 2Q.

shoebox · 03-01-09, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by pho3nix32

perfectly said shoe

thanks bud

BCaldwell32 · 03-01-09, 08:13 PM

Also Non, I'm from vegas and they are at a much larger scale but they have billions of dollars just from having a couple percent edge in their major games.

BCaldwell32 · 03-01-09, 08:15 PM

lol if the casinos had a 60/40 longterm edge they would be able to solve the national debt!!!

shoebox · 03-01-09, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by nonsense48

shoe, my feeling is that there are a few cappers here and if all of us got together and all decided on a select few games a day and pounded them, we'd do great.

Agreed maybe we should do a trial run for a select few cappers here. Try it out for a month, see how it goes from there. See if we can all agree on 2 games a day could be gold!

nonsense48 · 03-01-09, 08:15 PM

shoe, i'm going to start keeping track of how many games i bet in a yr. up to this point in my life i go tuesday thru monday and when monday nite is over that week is forgotten and it's on to a new week. i have a daily limit that i rarely go over and most days i stay under a bit.