T R A P Talk Nugs v. Lakers

[DeluxeLiner]

Will someone sharp please confirm my suspicion that the Nuggets ml is the play here, and that the public is in for it tonight.

The line was originally begging Laker's action and NOW it really really is after it moved from 2.5 to 2. I was expecting to wake up to Lakers -4 this morning.

I mean historically the Lakers beat the Nuggets no problem (albeit the Iverson Nuggets)


What is going on here????

[krk1030]

It's not a trap. The line makes sense.

You figure 3 points for home court, lakers -8.5 at home. That seems right to me.

[2daBank]

i fell like den got to be the play here line smelled fishy to begin with and now that over 80% on la the line has dropped to 2

[JGILL50]

You shouldnt need anything else but the percentage and the line drop. The play might lose but the right play is DEN ML

[DeluxeLiner]

It's not a trap. The line makes sense.

You figure 3 points for home court, lakers -8.5 at home. That seems right to me.

A line is going to smell fishy when everyone is loving the Lakers (as reported 80%) and then the line moves the opposite direction you would think. That 20% must sure be betting a lot of money in order to move that line.

The Lakers are pretty good on back to backs and they got some rest last night. The travel must be a pain though.

[VegasDave]

Great call Deluxe, I was going to add this to my plays to track

[jackiedeez]

after hearing phil jackson say he rested his starters so they can play hard tonight and finish march 12 -1
ill lay the points and take the lakers prob 1unit or so

[Dexter]

It's not a trap. The line makes sense.

You figure 3 points for home court, lakers -8.5 at home. That seems right to me.

thats correct. the line is pretty much right on imo. i dont think its a trap. w/o nene, the nuggets should get beat in the paint.

no play for me though

[jackiedeez]

im hearing mixed reports is NENE playing or what ?

[Dexter]

thats correct. the line is pretty much right on imo. i dont think its a trap. w/o nene, the nuggets should get beat in the paint.

no play for me though

nene is prob now...my bad.

[Pensinger1]

no such thing as a "trap-line"

[SpreadSniper]

no such thing as a "trap-line"

Im as new as it gets and believe that indeed there is such a thing. Eg - Orl @ Chi - now that was a trap if I've ever seen one.

And yes, Helmuth is a phukin whiner.

[DeluxeLiner]

no such thing as a "trap-line"

I would disagree. We will never be as good as the sharps, and the boys who set the lines. A trap-line is when the public is heavy on a certain side (in terms of number of bets actually placed), and it seems quite obvious to the normal sports fan what side should be taken. The trap is that the sharp side is actually the other side (in this case it looks like the Nugs)

There is a little RLM going on here too, which is always a good thing. I am not saying this is a sure thing, but I am growing more confident that the Nugs are the correct side (ml) and that this spot is better than Nicky's coin flip.

[rezkoness69]

ya, the fact is 75-80% of the public was on the lakers -2.5, then this morning it went down to -2. If your just playing the market, then the correct play (to be profitable in the long run) would be to take the nuggets here. I usually don't play the market game though, I'm just going to stay away from this one. Good luck to everyone else though

[Pensinger1]

Im as new as it gets and believe that indeed there is such a thing. Eg - Orl @ Chi - now that was a trap if I've ever seen one.

And yes, Helmuth is a phukin whiner.

Phil cracks me up.

The term "trap-line" is a made up term by sports-bettors and doesn't actually exist, you might think it does, but it doesn't. How about last night when everyone was talking about the CLE -2 line being a joke? Was that a trap? Or were the bookies accurate in giving CLE a slight edge (pre-Wallace injury), since Houston is dominant at home and on a nice little winning streak?

RE: The Magic @ Bulls game. The typical NBA fan would say, "I think the Magic can beat the Bulls, and I only have to lay 2.5? Book it". But the sharp would take a look at the entire situation at hand... Magic coming off a huge win against Miami on National Televion; Magic having already beaten the Bulls twice this year, once in Chicago. The bookies objective is to set a line such that they have 50/50 on each side. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Pensinger1]

And btw, this game is a no-play for me. Good luck whichever way you bet.

[VegasDave]

I don't know much about basketball, but...

*The Nuggets have lost 3 of their last 4, and the win was a 1 point nail-biter against a team they were favored to beat by 9.5
*The Lakers have won 6 straight and are 13 - 1 over their last 14 games...
*The Lakers are one of the country's favorite teams, and obviously a team squares love to bet

(I'm not inferring betting the Lakers is square, I'm just saying squares like them as well).

Considering this information, bookmakers are putting this game at a virtual coinflip? Really?

I can't convince anyone that trap lines do or don't exist. But you have to take a side here, either;

A) The bookies made a gross miscalculation (which of course they made no effort to fix when heavy action came in on LA)
or
B) The bookies have a lean on Denver and want you to think the Lakers are the right side here

Option B just seems more feasible to me.

EDIT: OPTION B!

[NBA Hero]

lakeshow

[The_Kid]

This is the latest news from Rotoworld:

Trainer Jim Gillen said on Thursday that Nene's knee is "much improved," and the Nuggets' center could return to face the Lakers on Friday. "I'd say the pendulum has swung to I think there's a chance he'll play tomorrow," coach George Karl said. Nene will be evaluated on Friday, after which a determination will be made on his availability for the matchup with the Lakers.

[cpufreak3]

Lakers are gonna take this. Rested starters, a complete team, and favs that do their job.

[SportsTerminator]

Denver beat THE ATLANTA HAWKS BY 1 YESTERDAY and Boston blew out Denver by like 30. What's the problem, Lakers EZ pick. They already beat them by 7 or more this season. One time already in Denver.

[Pensinger1]

VegasDave,

Option A is not very feasible to me. The bookies do not realize a mistake and say, "Ah, to heck with it, who cares if we lose millions on this game tonight". With the "number" of public bets hovering around 80% on LAL and little to no line-movement, one could only assume that the "sharps", or heaviest bets, are being placed on Denver. Again, the books want 50/50 action in terms of "dollars" not per capita bets. The game is a no-play for me, however I would pick the Lakers to win given the history, but will not be the least bit surprised to watch Denver take the W here. Good luck everyone.

[Karayilan9]

Betting on the Nuggs is always a coin/flip, wagering money on them should be made illegal

[VegasDave]

VegasDave,

Option A is not very feasible to me. The bookies do not realize a mistake and say, "Ah, to heck with it, who cares if we lose millions on this game tonight". With the "number" of public bets hovering around 80% on LAL and little to no line-movement, one could only assume that the "sharps", or heaviest bets, are being placed on Denver. Again, the books want 50/50 action in terms of "dollars" not per capita bets. The game is a no-play for me, however I would pick the Lakers to win given the history, but will not be the least bit surprised to watch Denver take the W here. Good luck everyone.

This is the common argument against my trap line theory. And I love it.

You may be right. If you are telling me that I am wrong, bookies are not trying to entice action on one side, but in fact that the action is around even because the extremely sharp and professional big money bettors are on Denver tonight, I'm STILL happy with my decision to be on Denver

[Pick'nParlays]

tease them down if your unsure. maybe with a lil gsw and sacramento action.... damn that sounds pretty good.

[Vince Carter]

no such thing as a "trap-line"

says the tout you listen to

[frostno98]

A) The Nuggets can beat the Lakers if either Linas Klieza or JR Smith goes for 30 and Billups/Melo has to play well also.

Or

B) Kenyon Martin or Dahntay Jones somehow defends and frustrates Kobe one on one because the can't afford to double team him all day. This would make them very venerable to the Lakers excellent 3 point shooter in Fisher, Sasha, and Farmer.

Or

C) Neither will happen, Denver loses easily.

[Andrey111]

A line is going to smell fishy when everyone is loving the Lakers (as reported 80%) and then the line moves the opposite direction you would think. That 20% must sure be betting a lot of money in order to move that line.

The Lakers are pretty good on back to backs and they got some rest last night. The travel must be a pain though.

I have tens examples, when was a public bet and line moves the opposite direction and public favorite won.
Was -2.5, it became known that Nene will play and line has moved up to -2, now public money has moved it up to -2.5, before match it will be possible -3.

[2daBank]

says the tout you listen to

[redbull]

no trap

lakers big win yesterday ( v pho ) from Q2 , the starting 5 not tired.
denver nugget like nagget , delicious

but i bet on -1 lakers , buy 1 point big bet
-2 medium bet
over medium bet

[BobHarvey]

The Lakers are definitely the play.

[DeluxeLiner]

Most of the folks here who seem to be very into the Lakers all have less than 50 posts. I am pretty sure this discussion can lead us to believe the big money is on the Nugs.

I have tens examples, when was a public bet and line moves the opposite direction and public favorite won.
Was -2.5, it became known that Nene will play and line has moved up to -2, now public money has moved it up to -2.5, before match it will be possible -3.

Wow 10 examples!!! Holy crapola! Well there we go then!!!!

Sorry for the sarcasm but it's not like I have become a proponent of someone putting there entire roll on this play.

Dave will back me up on this, these sort of plays and plays which Dave would classify as "philosophy picks" are about 55-60% winners. Yes, the Lakers might win this game and cover the spread but I am pretty sure that the Nuggets are the play here.

[Jshap1515]

A) The bookies made a gross miscalculation (which of course they made no effort to fix when heavy action came in on LA)
or
B) The bookies have a lean on Denver and want you to think the Lakers are the right side here

Option A just seems more feasible to me.

Vegas doesnt make mistakes. They could lose millions on a mistake. A isnt even an option

[mixpicks]

it's basic books want to even the $ We should all know that.
It's not a "Trap" It's just the $ and the type of players dictates where the line sits.
When you say, public is on one side and line moves the otherway, thats not a trap, however, it is an indicator that the "Smart & usually the Bigger$" is on the team the line in moving to, (assuming there is no major injures etc) Vegas Only Wants to Balance their books equal action, collect juice. Houston last last.

[dannyt76]

Agree that Denver is the play if look at the line movement, but I like the Lakers too much in this spot to bet against them. Lakeshow for me tonight on the ML. GL.