T R A P Talk Nugs v. Lakers

[W0lfy]

I picked Clippers against Boston and Houston against Cleveland, but in no way do you pick Denver against Lakers. Lakers will get the job done tonight unless the streakiest team in the league decides to make all their shots.

[VegasDave]

Vegas doesnt make mistakes. They could lose millions on a mistake. A isnt even an option

LOL I meant option B, awful time for a typo there, haha.

[VegasDave]

Dave will back me up on this, these sort of plays and plays which Dave would classify as "philosophy picks" are about 55-60% winners. Yes, the Lakers might win this game and cover the spread but I am pretty sure that the Nuggets are the play here.

It isn't a fun battle to fight around here, Deluxe. If the Lakers hit, you will be ridiculed for "being so stupid to take the Nuggets"... if the Nuggets win, people will call it a fluke.

So it goes. You have my support, but more importantly, you have an angle that should be +EV long term.

The great thing is, even people that AGREE with out logic still might chalk this game up as a non-play. No one likes betting shitty teams, and people certainly don't like betting them when they are getting a very low number of points. This is why these plays continue to work; most people are too afraid to bet them

GL tonight

[Karayilan9]

Took Lakers 1st QTR @ +100, they could have blown out Denver, if Lakers turns it up a notch Nuggets are gonna do what Nuggets usually do....

They're blowing Lakers out now LOL, happy I just did 1st QTR

[Pensinger1]

says the tout you listen to

So you have nothing to offer, and are trying to boost your post count?

Well played square.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Will someone sharp please confirm my suspicion that the Nuggets ml is the play here, and that the public is in for it tonight.

The line was originally begging Laker's action and NOW it really really is after it moved from 2.5 to 2. I was expecting to wake up to Lakers -4 this morning.

I mean historically the Lakers beat the Nuggets no problem (albeit the Iverson Nuggets)


What is going on here????

Stout post... Very good call.

[mmike032]

so did the sharps/linemakers cap the Lakers shooting 30% and having about 20 TOs
either way a good call if you tok the Nuggets.
Lakers playing like shit

[thetruth34]

this s h i t makes me sick!!! just busted my ****ing 3 game parlay! thats what i get being from boston betting on those pussies we call the lakers

[VegasDave]

You made the right call here Deluxe, and it was an excellent one. You got the win you deserved tonight. Congratulations

[dimesright]

Hey for those of you who took denver, I was wondering how you can tell what % of the public is on which side?

[thetruth34]

look at a site that tells u maybe

[csimmalavong]

very good call here

[DeluxeLiner]

Congrats to those who followed! It's hard betting against your own team.

[Andrey111]

Congrats to those who followed! It's hard betting against your own team.

Your theory rather " Trap line " - is not correct.
Phila - Orlando, public bet on Orlando, line has moved with -2 up to -1.5, match result you know.
With Nugs was simply lucky.

[DeluxeLiner]

Your theory rather " Trap line " - is not correct.
Phila - Orlando, public bet on Orlando, line has moved with -2 up to -1.5, match result you know.
With Nugs was simply lucky.

I am a believer in smart money, so technically my definition of trap line is different than others. I think a "trap line" is when the public finds a certain side obvious, yet the sharp money is on the other side. This is a trap for the public/squares. This game was not a fluke. Experienced cappers agree with me here, so do whatever you want but I think you should refrain from calling this pick a fluke. As VegasDave said putting this pick out was a lose-lose situation because people like you would call it a fluke if it won, and if it lost I would get ridiculed.

I did not bet the Orlando/Philly game and it was a non-play for me so maybe you don't understand the logic in playing the market yet. I only said that I thought this was an edge play. Usually people who are new to this think these picks are sure things, but of course, that is never the case. As I said earlier I can only reasonably say this kind of pick is a 55-60% winner. Which in the long run is profitable, even if you are playing 20 cent lines.

[redbull]

i really fuzk up this game !