Picks from The Laboratory NBA official thread

[MathMan]

Matthew 9:27-31

²⁷ As Jesus went on his way two blind men followed him shouting, 'Take pity on us, son of David.'
²⁸ And when Jesus reached the house the blind men came up to him and he said to them, 'Do you believe I can do this?' They said, 'Lord, we do.'
²⁹ Then he touched their eyes saying, 'According to your faith, let it be done to you.'
³⁰ And their sight returned. Then Jesus sternly warned them, 'Take care that no one learns about this.'
³¹ But when they had gone away, they talked about him all over the countryside.

[MathMan]

NBA


PHI ATS 73.432
PHI CHAR U 65.851
WAS ML above 90 -10
ATL ML 81.818 -8
DEN BOS O 89.285
ORL
ATS 64.864
ORL NY U 58.556
NY ML above 90 -10
GS ATS 60.465
GS HOU O 64.891
HOU ML 85.606 -9
OKC ML 75 -7
TOR PHO U 73.588
PHO ML 86.258 -9
TOR POR U 72.273
PHO ML 86.258 -9
UTAH POR U 72.273
POR ML abovr 90 -10
SAC ML 87.5 -9.5

[MathMan]

NBA

In addition to the adjustment next to the ML I am going to add another one. The second line number is the line according to a modification I have made to the adjustment exclusively for NBA. I am always looking to improve accuracy and this is just another step in that direction. This is still prototype stage(just thought you should know)

LAC ATS 64.671
LAC CLE U 79.429
LAC ML 68.636 -5.5 / -7.2
DET ATS 68.636
CHI ML 70.55 -6 / -8
GS MEM O 64.846
GS ML 80 -8 / -12
BK ATS 70
BK ML 70 -6 / -8
IND SA O 65.653
SA ML 86.12 -9 / -14.4
SAC ATS 65.60
UTA ML 52.632 -2 / -.8 this is minus eight tenths of a point


PEACE!

[MathMan]

Matthew 3:1-12

1 In due course John the Baptist appeared; he proclaimed this message in the desert of Judaea,
2 'Repent, for the kingdom of Heaven is close at hand.'

PEACE!

[MathMan]

In addition to the adjustment next to the ML I am going to add another one. The second line number is the line according to a modification I have made to the adjustment exclusively for NBA. I am always looking to improve accuracy and this is just another step in that direction. This is still prototype stage(just thought you should know)

BOS NY O 85.647NY ML above 90 -10.5 / -15.73

PEACE!

[MathMan]

Psalms 85:9-10, 11-12, 13-14

9 His saving help is near for those who fear him, his glory will dwell in our land.
10 Faithful Love and Loyalty join together, Saving Justice and Peace embrace.
11 Loyalty will spring up from the earth, and Justice will lean down from heaven.
12 Yahweh will himself give prosperity, and our soil will yield its harvest.
13 Justice will walk before him, treading out a path.

PEACE!

[MathMan]

NBA

NBA is being very stingy this year. The numbers are not reveling much this year hopefully now that we have reached this milestone in the season we can start getting more.


GS ATS 75.316
GS ML 61.834 -4/ -3.93
PHI ATS 60.878
LAC PHI O 60
LAC PHI ML DOG VALUE
DEN ATS 74.506
DEN WAS U 75.028
DEN ML 75.5 -7 / -8.95
ORL ATS 70.917
MEM ML 78.421 -7.5 / -10.02
POR ATS 63.649
POR ML 85.366 -9 / -12.53
DAL ATS 75
DAL SAC O 60
DAL ML 81.818 -8 / -11.09

PEACE!

[MathMan]

Matthew 11:28-30

28 'Come to me, all you who labour and are overburdened, and I will give you rest.
29 Shoulder my yoke and learn from me, for I am gentle and humble in heart, and you will find rest for your souls.
30 Yes, my yoke is easy and my burden light.'
PEACE!

[MathMan]

NBA being stingy this year, still working on adjustments to increase accuracy. It's what I do

ORL ATS 57.446
ORL CHAR U 66.846
CHAR ML 77.077
LAC BOS U 74.762
LAC ML 66.955
OKC ML 59.556
SA ML 75.545
PHI ATS 55.32
PHI MIN U 60
MIN ML 89.474
DET ML 69.363
CHI ATS 64.259
CHI ML 85.594
UTA ATS 56.5
UTA SAC U 72.382
SAC ML 71.794
GS ML 81.504

Right now ATS in the 50's are HOT!!! and O/U in the 50's COLD so fade that to get MONEY!!!

PEACE!

[MathMan]

Matthew 11:15



15 Anyone who has ears should listen!

PEACE!

[Tommy Karate]

NBA being stingy this year, still working on adjustments to increase accuracy. It's what I do

ORL ATS 57.446
ORL CHAR U 66.846
CHAR ML 77.077

im interested but not following...lets just use Orl/Char as an example. Were your picks here Under, and Charlotte on the ML?

[MathMan]

im interested but not following...lets just use Orl/Char as an example. Were your picks here Under, and Charlotte on the ML?

The Pick here was ORL ATS. The 50's ATS numbers are on fire!!!! The numbers come from data analysis completed at The Laboratory. Each league has it's own quirks and GOLDEN plays. Right now in the NBA the 50s ATS numbers and 50's ML numbers are what is HOT HOT HOT!!!!. Think of like watching the stock market. Another good number is the 80's in the ML like tonight.


PEACE!

[MathMan]

<tt>NBALos Angeles Clippers ATS 75.6 76Los Angeles Clippers moneyline 72.9Houston Rockets ATS 63.3 Portland Trail Blazers moneyline 86.6 24 -9the best bet here is the Portland money line</tt></pre><tt>
PEACE!</tt>

[Tommy Karate]

The Pick here was ORL ATS. The 50's ATS numbers are on fire!!!! The numbers come from data analysis completed at The Laboratory. Each league has it's own quirks and GOLDEN plays. Right now in the NBA the 50s ATS numbers and 50's ML numbers are what is HOT HOT HOT!!!!. Think of like watching the stock market. Another good number is the 80's in the ML like tonight.


PEACE!

you dont need to sell me with how hot you are..lol

this is very cryptic and im sure unclear to a lot of people.

how in the world would someone looking at this decipher that the magic were the play?
you say ATS is the books #, and ML is your #......well what is 57% and 67% referring to?

ORL ATS 57.446
ORL CHAR U 66.846
CHAR ML 77.077

[MathMan]

you dont need to sell me with how hot you are..lol

this is very cryptic and im sure unclear to a lot of people.

how in the world would someone looking at this decipher that the magic were the play?
you say ATS is the books #, and ML is your #......well what is 57% and 67% referring to?

ORL ATS 57.446
ORL CHAR U 66.846
CHAR ML 77.077

I am not trying to sell you on anything friend. I am just letting you know what to look for. Some one would decipher by reading my posts. The best way is by having full access to The Laboratory. I post on here for the sake of record keeping and transparency. SBR is not my priority it is to those that are on the Full Access List. I try and update whats going on here as often as I can. And if someone would just take the time to read the posts it would be quite easy to find out what is going on. I mean I am doing ALL the work the least someone that wants winners could do is read. If people don't want to do any research before betting then I would suggest they go buy LOTTO tickets.

PEACE!

[Tommy Karate]

there is absolutely NO transparency, so cut the shit man.....but wait a second, there is entrance to laboratory?

ohhhhhh.............can i be on full access list to get the premium plays???

how much, how much????!!!!

[MathMan]

you dont need to sell me with how hot you are..lol

this is very cryptic and im sure unclear to a lot of people.

how in the world would someone looking at this decipher that the magic were the play?
you say ATS is the books #, and ML is your #......well what is 57% and 67% referring to?

ORL ATS 57.446
ORL CHAR U 66.846
CHAR ML 77.077

To follow up. As I mentioned before each league has it's own idiosyncrasies. In the NFL for example the numbers are pretty straight forward. The numbers are the probability of that pick hitting except the NFL numbers in the 60's in the O/U aspect lose more often than they hit. So if you were to see an O/U number in the sixties in the NFL then you would leave it alone or fade it. This is information that is tracked on a daily basis at The Laboratory and is privileged to those people with Full Access to The Laboratory in a daily morning update. Like I said I try and stop by here to but it is not a priority whatsoever.

PEACE!

[MathMan]

there is absolutely NO transparency, so cut the shit man.....but wait a second, there is entrance to laboratory?

ohhhhhh.............can i be on full access list to get the premium plays???

how much, how much????!!!!

Dude I just told the premium plays. In NHL they are labeled GOLDEN or ELITE in NBA it is the ATS in the 50's and ML in the 80's right now. This is exactly like the stock market my friend the public fuels the prices and the books cater to the demand.

PEACE!

[Tommy Karate]

i want into laboratory? how can i get in???

[MathMan]

right on schedule those 70's are not cooperating as you can tell with this report

[MathMan]

NUMBER		ATS WIN	ATS LOSS	TOTAL	PERCENT		O/U WIN	O/U LOSS	TOTAL	PERCENT		SU WIN	SU LOSS	TOTAL	PERCENT
50		23	4	27	0.851852		3	8	11	0.272727		17	5	22	0.772727
60		35	27	62	0.564516		35	24	59	0.59322		13	11	24	0.541667
70		19	26	45	0.422222		17	18	35	0.485714		27	22	49	0.55102
80		7	13	20	0.35		12	13	25	0.48		51	20	71	0.71831
90		4	2	6	0.666667		4	3	7	0.571429		28	16	44	0.636364

[MathMan]

Got some of the good stuff today



PEACE!

[MathMan]

Matthew 11:16-19

16 'What comparison can I find for this generation? It is like children shouting to each other as they sit in the market place:
17 We played the pipes for you, and you wouldn't dance; we sang dirges, and you wouldn't be mourners.
18 'For John came, neither eating nor drinking, and they say, "He is possessed."
19 The Son of man came, eating and drinking, and they say, "Look, a glutton and a drunkard, a friend of tax collectors and sinners." Yet wisdom is justified by her deeds.'

PEACE!

[MathMan]

Here is the first batch of numbers. I highly suggest using the chart above when looking at the numbers.

CHAR ATS 55.307
IND ML 76.278
ORL ML 77.732
PHI ATS 64.444
TOR ML 79.167

take a good look at that chart there is some pretty good value today.

PEACE!

[MathMan]

Sirach 48:11

11 Blessed, those who will see you, and those who have fallen asleep in love; for we too shall certainly have life.

PEACE!

[MathMan]

from today. Those 50's ATS keep paying

NBA
HOU ATS 60
HOU ML 63
MIN ATS 75
MIN ML 87.197
POR ATS 66.53
POR ML 64
ORL ATS 55.1
ORL OKC O 57.1
OKC ML 78.366
NO ATS 63
DEN ML 67
GS ATS 63
GS PHO O 72
GS ML 74

[nelsonrc24]

Lolz

[MathMan]

Psalms 25:7.

7 HOLD not my youthful sins against me, but remember me as your faithful love dictates.

PEACE!

[MathMan]

<tt>Remember that is what is hitting hard right now are the ATS numbers assigned anything in the 50's and the ML's in the 80'sNBADetroit ATS 57.79 8Indianapolis moneyline 87.2 34PEACE!</tt></pre>

[MathMan]

I highly recommend that you use the data chart above when using the numbers. It is a few day outdated but it will still work for you.

I have received several messages about the use of the numbers. It is a simply a combination of the two data sets. The chart I created for you and the daily numbers assigned to each team. Every league works a little different btw.

If you have any questions please feel free to contact me. Serious inquiries only please. If you don't understand just ask but do me a favor and read first before you post or if you want you can send me a message if it would make it easier for you to ask the questions.


<tt>NBADetroit ATS 57.79 8Indianapolis moneyline 87.2 34Los Angeles Lakers ATS 78.9 46Atlanta money line 54.8 19Minnesota Fats 53.8Minnesota moneyline 65.99 6Philadelphia ATS 65.25 4Brooklyn moneyline 72.3Utah ATS 57.79 3Miami moneyline a 7.2 07Washington ATS 57.79 3New York moneyline 87.20 7Chicago money line 71.7 76Sacramento moneyline 62.5PEACE!</tt></pre>

[MathMan]

An example I was asked earlier

-----Original Message-----
From: xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To: Maury Porter
Sent: Mon, Dec 16, 2013 7:03 am
Subject: Re: numbers

I’m sorry for all the questions so you’re saying the lakers against the spread is a good play since atl money line is so low?






Here is the answer to this question;

No, in this case that is not a good play. If you use the chart above you will notice that an ATS play assigned a number in the 70 is hitting at only 42% and a ML assigned a number in the 50's is hitting at 72 (using the outdated chart above) so I would suggest you look for another play.

Here is a website that I used in the development of The Laboratory http://ocw.mit.edu/index.htm. It is an incredible resource.

PEACE!

[El Sol]

The ATS number is based on what line the books have set. The new adjustment is that at the end of the ML number you will see what the line should be according to The Laboratory. Remember that the line you see on the books is not a true measure of the teams but what the books think will bring in equal amounts of money on both sides.



PEACE!

This statement is the biggest misconception that Gamblers new to sports betting make. Although, I can see some small back alley book makers that only take recreational bettors may like equal action as they may not have enough equity to cover a losing day. But for large Books that take a wide range of action, setting lines up for 'equal action' will put them out of business in a hurry.

ATS Lines are set up for equal probabilities for each side to hit so they can collect a lofty 4.96% juice on a players winnings regardless which side hits. If they set it up for equal action, then they will be discarding crucial information that all sharps are privy to and all squares are oblivious to in order to 'attempt' to predict what the public is thinking. Thus, just about every line out there you will have a side with massive +equity with the other side with -equity because they are no longer basing it on game prediction but public perception. Sharp action is what buries books and creating an atmosphere where a sharp can hammer a +EV side is asking for certain bankruptcy.

Another misconception that you haven't mentioned but many here at SBR claim is that a book cares about each game enough to rig a sport, or set up a trap, or other remedial conspiracy theories that propagate here.

The easiest way to look at it is to consider it like a game of Baccarat. Each side has pretty much a 50/50 chance of winning (the player slightly less) but they charge 5% on the Banker side. Do you think the casino wants equal action? What if every player that day only bets Player? Do you think the Casino wants more money on the Banker to even out the action? No, they do not, they do not care. They are not looking at it day by day, they are looking at it year by year, and by years end, the action will always even out on each side and they collect the healthy 5% commission from the banker side.

Now look at a sports bet. Every single game, every single bet, they are not looking for equal action. Just like with a table game, they just do not care. They are looking for equal probability for each side to hit as they are always collecting their commission on the winnings regardless. So by years end, all the action always evens out and they bank a tidy profit as if every bet and every game was the same event like a game of Baccarat.

Of course every game has dynamics that all lines makers may not be privy to, or a smart individual can interpret the same data better than them and discover a mistake in the line, thus finding an edge. This is where Handicappers come in.

Good luck with you endevour and take my advice, never believe for a second that you 'cracked the code'. Books are always looking to be one step ahead of the sharps.

[MathMan]

This statement is the biggest misconception that Gamblers new to sports betting make. Although, I can see some small back alley book makers that only take recreational bettors may like equal action as they may not have enough equity to cover a losing day. But for large Books that take a wide range of action, setting lines up for 'equal action' will put them out of business in a hurry.

ATS Lines are set up for equal probabilities for each side to hit so they can collect a lofty 4.96% juice on a players winnings regardless which side hits. If they set it up for equal action, then they will be discarding crucial information that all sharps are privy to and all squares are oblivious to in order to 'attempt' to predict what the public is thinking. Thus, just about every line out there you will have a side with massive +equity with the other side with -equity because they are no longer basing it on game prediction but public perception. Sharp action is what buries books and creating an atmosphere where a sharp can hammer a +EV side is asking for certain bankruptcy.

Another misconception that you haven't mentioned but many here at SBR claim is that a book cares about each game enough to rig a sport, or set up a trap, or other remedial conspiracy theories that propagate here.

The easiest way to look at it is to consider it like a game of Baccarat. Each side has pretty much a 50/50 chance of winning (the player slightly less) but they charge 5% on the Banker side. Do you think the casino wants equal action? What if every player that day only bets Player? Do you think the Casino wants more money on the Banker to even out the action? No, they do not, they do not care. They are not looking at it day by day, they are looking at it year by year, and by years end, the action will always even out on each side and they collect the healthy 5% commission from the banker side.

Now look at a sports bet. Every single game, every single bet, they are not looking for equal action. Just like with a table game, they just do not care. They are looking for equal probability for each side to hit as they are always collecting their commission on the winnings regardless. So by years end, all the action always evens out and they bank a tidy profit as if every bet and every game was the same event like a game of Baccarat.

Of course every game has dynamics that all lines makers may not be privy to, or a smart individual can interpret the same data better than them and discover a mistake in the line, thus finding an edge. This is where Handicappers come in.

Good luck with you endevour and take my advice, never believe for a second that you 'cracked the code'. Books are always looking to be one step ahead of the sharps.

First let me say thank you for posting in a polite and respectable manner. I truly appreciate that. Second please do not take my reply as aggressive or antagonistic . I know that sometimes the lack of affect from a typed conversation may can be an impediment to the positive results of such a communication. Third do mind if I ask where you are getting your information from. What sources do you have to substantiate what you are saying? It sounds interesting there is something about the mathematics that is not clicking for me right now. But no matter now here is my reply to your post sir:


PAR1) This statement is the biggest misconception that Gamblers new to sports betting make. Although, I can see some small back alley book makers that only take recreational bettors may like equal action as they may not have enough equity to cover a losing day. But for large Books that take a wide range of action, setting lines up for 'equal action' will put them out of business in a hurry.

I am not new to sports betting. I have been doing this at a serious level of research for six years. How are the lines set by the large books and back alley books different? I have never seen back alley lines but I don’t think that they are very far apart.

PAR 2) ATS Lines are set up for equal probabilities for each side to hit so they can collect a lofty 4.96% juice on a players winnings regardless which side hits. If they set it up for equal action, then they will be discarding crucial information that all sharps are privy to and all squares are oblivious to in order to 'attempt' to predict what the public is thinking. Thus, just about every line out there you will have a side with massive +equity with the other side with -equity because they are no longer basing it on game prediction but public perception. Sharp action is what buries books and creating an atmosphere where a sharp can hammer a +EV side is asking for certain bankruptcy.

The ATS lines are set up for equal probabilities to hit then you would see the lines being more on point, meaning that teams cover by one or two points more often than not. In general you don’t see that. It is a combination of both sharp action and public perception. Sharps handicap the public as well not just the teams. Sharps know that the squares influence the market and that is something that cannot be ignored. As far as collecting the 4.96 that is why your spreads are set at -110 not even money. It’s the -110 not the size of the spread that will get them their cut.

PAR3) Another misconception that you haven't mentioned but many here at SBR claim is that a book cares about each game enough to rig a sport, or set up a trap, or other remedial conspiracy theories that propagate here.


Books don’t rig games. But that does not mean that games are not rigged. Professional sports are a business. Business. Business. Business. If one walks around thinking that there are not fixed games then you are a sports fan not a sports bettor. Again a true sharp takes this into consideration. Not they are in on the fix but know how Business works. Again they key work here in Business.


PAR 4 &5)The easiest way to look at it is to consider it like a game of Baccarat. Each side has pretty much a 50/50 chance of winning (the player slightly less) but they charge 5% on the Banker side. Do you think the casino wants equal action? What if every player that day only bets Player? Do you think the Casino wants more money on the Banker to even out the action? No, they do not, they do not care. They are not looking at it day by day, they are looking at it year by year, and by years end, the action will always even out on each side and they collect the healthy 5% commission from the banker side.

Now look at a sports bet. Every single game, every single bet, they are not looking for equal action. Just like with a table game, they just do not care. They are looking for equal probability for each side to hit as they are always collecting their commission on the winnings regardless. So by years end, all the action always evens out and they bank a tidy profit as if every bet and every game was the same event like a game of Baccarat.

This goes back to the -110 you speak to that in the Baccarat scenario.


PAR 6)Of course every game has dynamics that all lines makers may not be privy to, or a smart individual can interpret the same data better than them and discover a mistake in the line, thus finding an edge. This is where Handicappers come in.


Case in point The Laboratory. It is ALL multilevel data analysis.


7)Good luck with you endeavor and take my advice, never believe for a second that you 'cracked the code'. Books are always looking to be one step ahead of the sharps.

There is no “code” to crack. I guarantee that what is hitting in the NBA this year is not going to hit next year. That is why at The Laboratory it is constant analysis on a daily basis and constant pursuit of increased accuracy. A true scientist never stops asking questions. In fact it is the complete opposite. The Laboratory is always pushing forward to answer the next question.


PEACE!

[MathMan]

USE THE CHART to decide.

NBA
SAC CHAR O 82.877
CHAR ML above 90
POR CLE U 72.672
POR ML 67.905
LAL ATS 60.785
MEM ML 82.106
OKC ATS 52.941
OKC DEN O 64.286
OKC ML 61.765
NO ATS 55.357
GS ML 82.106

NOTES: the best plays on the nba board are mem ml,ok cats, no ats and gs ml.


PEACE!

[MathMan]

Psalms 72:4

4 he will judge the poor of the people, he will save the children of the needy and crush their oppressors.

PEACE!