John Morrison 2013-14 NBA Thread

[tonywayne]

Hey tonywayne

Can't handle downswings?
Get a regular job!

Or go back to school to study some simple maths. You might learn interesting things about probabilities, ROI, expected value, VARIANCE, standard deviation, LONG TERM expectations & Risk of Ruin.

Good Luck!

I'm a professional accountant and statistical analyst. I'm not questioning the "stats" of any of the systems in this thread. The betting & the systems are at least consistent in their picks. My issue is with the blind scheduling of the JM system, and with the results of the Wallco system. I think some simple tweaks are in order - EVERY system can use a little nudging from time to time to make sure it's keeping up with the game & the books.

You want to talk risk of ruin? What would these guys do if Vegas decided to start moving spreads by 1 1/2 points because they were losing too many games? With a blind system (JM), as a bettor, you end up ruined because you didn't recognize the shift and make the necessary adjustment. Wallco's & others reactions tell me they have far too much pride/ego to actually do anything about losing money. They will shrug, soldier on, and keep citing a 10+ year average. Smart & sharp bettors make adjustments. Plain & simple.

Who said I'm on a downswing? I'm following these threads, not currently betting these systems. Chase systems, especially, interest me. I just wanted to have some dialogue to find out if anyone is actually at the wheel or not. It doesn't sound like it.

[Wallco99]

I'm a professional accountant and statistical analyst. I'm not questioning the "stats" of any of the systems in this thread. The betting & the systems are at least consistent in their picks. My issue is with the blind scheduling of the JM system, and with the results of the Wallco system. I think some simple tweaks are in order - EVERY system can use a little nudging from time to time to make sure it's keeping up with the game & the books.

You want to talk risk of ruin? What would these guys do if Vegas decided to start moving spreads by 1 1/2 points because they were losing too many games? With a blind system (JM), as a bettor, you end up ruined because you didn't recognize the shift and make the necessary adjustment. Wallco's & others reactions tell me they have far too much pride/ego to actually do anything about losing money. They will shrug, soldier on, and keep citing a 10+ year average. Smart & sharp bettors make adjustments. Plain & simple.

Who said I'm on a downswing? I'm following these threads, not currently betting these systems. Chase systems, especially, interest me. I just wanted to have some dialogue to find out if anyone is actually at the wheel or not. It doesn't sound like it.

It's not dialogue, it's you asking others to test theories for you because you don't want to spend the time. Anybody can throw a hundred scenarios out there, test them then tell me you have a better way. Until I see that, there is no better way.

[tonywayne]

It's not dialogue, it's you asking others to test theories for you because you don't want to spend the time. Anybody can throw a hundred scenarios out there, test them then tell me you have a better way. Until I see that, there is no better way.

Go back and re-read those 2 or 3 posts. I was very clear that I'd made an assumption that Disciple had his data set up to make a slight tweak. Why would I spend time on someone else's system when they SHOULD be able to change a single variable and look at the results?

As well, I'm not telling you your system is "bad" or "wrong". I'm ASKING if there are any tweaks to consider. If you could set your pride & ego aside for a minute, you'd likely be able to see something new/fresh. SOMETHING is knocking these systems off their expected trajectory. That you don't seem to care about it or want to do anything about it says more about YOU, not about those of us making reasonable inquiries.

I spent a lot of time testing my own systems or those where I have access to the full data set. I'm not going to waste my time piece-mealing things together from within this thread when SOMEONE should be able to go to a database, select some variables, and spit out a report. If that's now how you're keeping track of your data, then you're even more amateurish than we're seeing in these conversations...

[Wallco99]

Go back and re-read those 2 or 3 posts. I was very clear that I'd made an assumption that Disciple had his data set up to make a slight tweak. Why would I spend time on someone else's system when they SHOULD be able to change a single variable and look at the results?

As well, I'm not telling you your system is "bad" or "wrong". I'm ASKING if there are any tweaks to consider. If you could set your pride & ego aside for a minute, you'd likely be able to see something new/fresh. SOMETHING is knocking these systems off their expected trajectory. That you don't seem to care about it or want to do anything about it says more about YOU, not about those of us making reasonable inquiries.

I spent a lot of time testing my own systems or those where I have access to the full data set. I'm not going to waste my time piece-mealing things together from within this thread when SOMEONE should be able to go to a database, select some variables, and spit out a report. If that's now how you're keeping track of your data, then you're even more amateurish than we're seeing in these conversations...

Speaking of reading, I already said I was doing that yesterday, for things I wish to check, not the other suggestions. Bored with you and this topic. Have a nice day.

[Maxi_EV]

So sterile...

[J.M. Disciple]

Hey tonywayne

Can't handle downswings?
Get a regular job!

Or go back to school to study some simple maths. You might learn interesting things about probabilities, ROI, expected value, VARIANCE, standard deviation, LONG TERM expectations & Risk of Ruin.

Good Luck!

Sounds like hes doing fine on his own turning $10 units into $100 over 2 years. He made a good point not everyone has been playing this system for 10 years and dont have the cushion for those who have a dedicated bankroll to just sports or 200+ units in their roll, especially those who just started this year. Should not be so stubborn with educating ourselves. Both wallco and him make good points. No one should be spoon fed nor should we just follow blindly when things are changing. As Hagball said teams are tanking for better draft picks, its a business not just entertainment. Adapt and move forward.

[thelimit0310]

Tony... I know you're upset the system is failing but there aren't any tweaks to make. You're talking about adapting, we are, when we see proper evidence (like adding in the A bets as plays at the beginning of this season after proper testing was made to ensure they added units season to season). We don't just put in a flavor of the month tweak whenever something doesn't go as planned. Some people in here say to play teams only better than .500 well that's great but it's impossible to test and therefor not a good change to make just because we hit a few losses this month. This is not a dead, irrecoverable, unprofitable system. Right now the filtered 1-7/5 system is about ~8 B/C wins from breaking even, and there's still 2 months of plays to make. The system the 1-7/5 was adapted from, the traditional John Morrison system, is further in the hole than the 1-7/5 is.

Whether or not you started playing this year is irrelevant, if you're using proper management of your bankroll, which is laid out with the system at the start of every season, you should be okay right now. If this season finishes poorly, I'm sorry, but it's not like it was never going to happen, no system is perfect and it can and will fail every few years or so. It is a constant struggle to fix this but it's a sad reality for the time being. That still doesn't effect the long term gains of this system and it still remains fact that the 1-7/5 is one of the most profitable NBA systems you can play.

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison 2/13 Results & 2/14 Plays

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[petermans23]

So I presume that even when the A bet wins you still just straight bet both the B and C bets no matter what?

Hi,
Would be very nice if anyone here could confirm/answer this question.
I also wondered if the exterminator system says anything about doubling up your stakes if the B bet lost?
And does the system say that you bet both B and C bet or just B bet if B bet wins.
And if A bet win do you still bet B bet? Or you just leave that serie and go to the next one where the A bet lost?
Many thanks for your help

[kdavis]

Hi,
Would be very nice if anyone here could confirm/answer this question.
I also wondered if the exterminator system says anything about doubling up your stakes if the B bet lost?
And does the system say that you bet both B and C bet or just B bet if B bet wins.
And if A bet win do you still bet B bet? Or you just leave that serie and go to the next one where the A bet lost?
Many thanks for your help

[B]The A game must lose under the original system in order for the B game to be a play.
If B bet wins, series is over.
If the B bet loses you DO try to recover your units lost on the B bet plus the number of units you want to wager on the C bet.
If the A bet wins you DO NOT wager on the B game. Move on to next series.
His money management is this. Bet a fixed amount for every bet under the system. For a conservative better that would be 5% - 10% of your bankroll. 10 - 15% for average bettor. 15 - 20% for the very aggressive risk taker. Calculate these percentages after each and every win or loss. The actual amount you are risking should lower after every loss and rise after every win.
He also has an option that he says can be a very profitable betting strategy. If you have the ability to buy 3 points in the NBA at -170 juice, then you can bet on all A games from the original SBC system while buying 3 points. He suggest betting a very small percentage of your bankroll (no more than 5%) if you do.

This is the Exterminator system in a nutshell.
(1) Follow all the system bets for the Sports Betting Champ system.

(2) Skip all [A] bets from the SBC system. Bet on all qualifying [B] bets from the SBC system with a percentage of your bankroll mentioned above. Bet on the point spread without buying any points.
follow the "When your team is a favorite of -3 points or greater" rule from the SBC system.

(3) if your bet loses (even if it would have won on the SBC system due to buying points), then bet on the [C] game with the same percentage of your bankroll as mentioned above. Again, bet on the point spread without buying points, unless your team is in a rare occasion where they are a favorite of -3 points or greater.

(4) Follow all the injury filters and road performance rules in the SBC system.

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison Results & Profit/Loss Statement For the Season so Far: 11/1 - 2/15

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[petermans23]

Thank you kdavis!
Much appreciated.
Tried to give you some points but it said that I couldn´t for some weird reason and that you were not allowed to receive points for some other weird reason.
Once again thanks and have a nice day.

[Kev the Brit]

[B]The A game must lose under the original system in order for the B game to be a play.
If B bet wins, series is over.
If the B bet loses you DO try to recover your units lost on the B bet plus the number of units you want to wager on the C bet.
If the A bet wins you DO NOT wager on the B game. Move on to next series.
His money management is this. Bet a fixed amount for every bet under the system. For a conservative better that would be 5% - 10% of your bankroll. 10 - 15% for average bettor. 15 - 20% for the very aggressive risk taker. Calculate these percentages after each and every win or loss. The actual amount you are risking should lower after every loss and rise after every win.
He also has an option that he says can be a very profitable betting strategy. If you have the ability to buy 3 points in the NBA at -170 juice, then you can bet on all A games from the original SBC system while buying 3 points. He suggest betting a very small percentage of your bankroll (no more than 5%) if you do.

This is the Exterminator system in a nutshell.
(1) Follow all the system bets for the Sports Betting Champ system.

(2) Skip all [A] bets from the SBC system. Bet on all qualifying [B] bets from the SBC system with a percentage of your bankroll mentioned above. Bet on the point spread without buying any points.
follow the "When your team is a favorite of -3 points or greater" rule from the SBC system.

(3) if your bet loses (even if it would have won on the SBC system due to buying points), then bet on the [C] game with the same percentage of your bankroll as mentioned above. Again, bet on the point spread without buying points, unless your team is in a rare occasion where they are a favorite of -3 points or greater.

(4) Follow all the injury filters and road performance rules in the SBC system.

Pretty much describes the 0-3-3 system whereby the 3 units, being the same for B & C, can be any % of the BR (ie 0-1-1). I'm surprised he has dropped point buying. My stats have shown that B & C bets have so far bombed this season, and if there are no A bets to recoup some of the losses, it isn't working at the moment.

[hardy4]

Thank you kdavis!
Much appreciated. and i was allowed 2 point u

[Wallco99]

Thank you kdavis!
Much appreciated. and i was allowed 2 point u

Then why didn't you?

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison Upcoming Plays 2/18

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[Kev the Brit]

Then why didn't you?

Because I think he accidentally gave them to me.

I've now passed them onto kdavis

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison 2/18 Plays

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[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 55-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -2.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-4.51 units)


v1 Plays
(A) 34-26
(B) 13-12
(C) 4-7
(D) 4-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



Games for (2/18/14):
#57 Atlanta (+10) @ Indiana (C) (7:05 pm EST)
#58 Phoenix @ Denver (+2) (B) (9:05 pm EST)



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.

[Andy3568]

Kevin,

The 1-7-5 System #107 should be "C bet to win 5 units plus lost A & B Bet amounts."

[Kev the Brit]

Kevin,

The 1-7-5 System #107 should be "C bet to win 5 units plus lost A & B Bet amounts."

Thanks, Andy. Now edited. The perils of cut and paste strike again.

[BCC585]

You have to wonder if players pay attention to the lines in vegas.
True sweat at the end, thankfully I grabbed the +10.5 on ATL early.

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison System Recovery Plan

Hi Guys,

Take this or leave it; your choice.

Backgound
The original Morrison (3 point buy) system is now known as Version 1. It comes with a solid history of experience incorporating filters that have reduced losses to an absolute minimum (av 1 per season) when all the filters are applied. Consequently, the average number of playable V1 series per season is only approx 70-80 and quite boring. A few years ago, Morrison (now Chau), playing on the gambler's vulnerable need for more action, created V2 and V3, and therefore fed us with approx 150 series per season. However, he did not produce any official back testing of the two new versions with filters incorporated, so we are at greater risk when we play them. I know that some people here have produced back tests of point buying on V2 and V3 systems, but the data for those back tests cannot include the existing worst road team standing and injured player filters in hindsight. Consequently, it is only the trumpeted V1 that has any reliability within the Morrison point-buy systems. Therefore, we can use the data to best effect whenever a V1 series fails. Historically, the V1 point buy system, when played exactly as per the pdf, fails only very rarely and so we can hit the bookies big for a short while after a loss, before the next loss comes along. I have done this every year since I've been playing Morrison.


Applicability to 1-7-5 Systems
The normal betting strategy in the 1-7-5 system incorporates a kind of on-going recovery plan in itself; regular, though sporadic, 7 unit and 5 unit wins. Theoretically the system recovers and pre-buffers the losses as they accrue. However, unlike the random nature of the 1-7-5 system, my recovery plan targets a set amount over specific series over a short schedule and, on the basis that both systems produce winning series, my plan will produce the targeted amount. The same cannot be said for the random nature of the 1-7-5 system.

Personal Experience
I routinely play the 1-7-5 System, based on the back tests. However, whenever a Published V1 (point buying) series loses, I use the Recovery Plan. I buy the points and bet big over the 6 series and consequently my 1-7-5 bankroll significantly increases. Yes, concurrently with the Recovery Plan, the routine 1-7-5 system can also win big money, but it would be a random amount. As I said at the top, take it or leave it....

I will highlight Kev's Recovery Plans whenever they arise in my daily posts.

Regards
Kev

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison 2/18 Results & 2/19 Plays

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[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 55-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -2.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-6.82 units)

(2/18/14):
#57 Atlanta (+10) (C) - Push
#58 Denver (+2½) (B) - Loss


v1 Plays
(A) 34-26
(B) 13-13
(C) 4-7
(D) 4-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



Games for (2/19/14):
#57 Washington @ Atlanta (M/L) (C) (7:35 pm EST)
#58 Resumes (C) on 2/20/14



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.

[Kev the Brit]

A quick reminder if you choose to play the recovery plans:

Boston, buy 3 points

Brooklyn: ML Bet

Regards
Kev

[J.M. Disciple]

Just quick question for when C games are a push was the back test done playing the 4th game at home? I thought series ended if they went back home and only remade the C-bet if there was a 4th or 5th road game.

[Wallco99]

Just quick question for when C games are a push was the back test done playing the 4th game at home? I thought series ended if they went back home and only remade the C-bet if there was a 4th or 5th road game.

It's in the rules post.

[J.M. Disciple]

it's in the rules post.

rule #2 post #624 got it.

Thanks

[cambertos]

This system is has under performed so badly this year. Gotta get off now, best of luck everyone

[KennyM10]

Wallco really another c loss? And this system blew last year too!
Please stop posting this crap.

[play4win]

Wallco really another c loss? And this system blew last year too!
Please stop posting this crap.

at least this system is kinda predictable unlike jm system!

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison 2/19 Results & 2/20 Plays

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[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2013-14 System to Date: 55-3 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -2.65 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 2 (-11.89 units)

(2/19/14):
#57 Atlanta (M/L) (C) - Loss


v1 Plays
(A) 34-26
(B) 13-13
(C) 4-8
(D) 4-3
Losses: NYK (-18.45 u), MIL (-20.76 u), ORL (-18.45 u)



Games for (2/20/14):
#57 Resumes (D) on 2/21/14
#58 Denver (M/L) @ Milwaukee (C) (8:05 pm EST)



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day if the lines do change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #44 & #45.

Note: The lines I have listed were the current lines at the time of my post and may not reflect the final lines used to determine wins & losses.

[kdavis]

Think I will just have to lick my wounds and wait for next season. I'm looking at a few things for NCAA Basketball next season also. They seem to be a little more predictable. Anyway, good luck and thanks to Kev, Wallco, thelimit and Hagball for all the hard work you guy's have put into this thread. See ya next season.