The JM "Chase system" $1000 bank roll

[mcbain]

Yes, Portland fit the JM system tonight, but he didn't email it out as a play for some reason!

Like I said, he'll probably still count it.

I'll pass on your offer sportsbetwin; you know as well as I that JM can't resist a chance to pad his records.

[netinfo]

I am analyzing the NHL data for the last couple of seasons but it appears so far that betting any NHL team that goes out on a 3-game road trip (moneyline) would also turn a nice profit for the season.

This would be the NHL version of the cartytay system.

mcbain,

If you could put together a researched NHL system for us, that is as profitable (or nearly as profitable) as the Cartytay NBA system, that would be awesome, and we can name it after you: Mcbain NHL System

Heck, I'll even pay you for it, if reasonably priced of course!

netinfo

[mcbain]

That is my goal, to see if an identical system to cartytay's NBA system will work for the NHL (play visitor on any 3-game road trip).

I am also going to see if it is more profitable to simply bet moneyline or if we should be playing +1.5 on these road teams as well.

If I find it would have worked for the last 2-3 seasons, I will post it here and it will be FREE. Definitely free for you, netinfo, thanks for that PM.

Hopefully by tomorrow I will have some results...

[Vincepcion]

Are you saying I will find out that it isn't profitable?

Or do you just want to know the results?

I just want to know the results, or have you, or someone investigate this further. If it is found to be profitable then you might have hit a gold mine.

Which means more $$$ for all of us.

[netinfo]

If I find it would have worked for the last 2-3 seasons, I will post it here and it will be FREE. Definitely free for you, netinfo, thanks for that PM.

I like the sound of FREE!!!
netinfo

[Cheme82]

I believe the reason why he didn't e-mail this as a play is because this was the 3rd. game on the road for Portland. I think he only plays series that start right away on the road.

The reasoning behind it might be that (like Portland) a team might be coming from an ATS and the line for bet "A" might reflect that. Also, if the series were to go into bet "B" or "C", fatigue might be a big factor as the team would have been on the road for a week or so.

Hope that makes sense.

P.S.
About the "Worlds greatest sports betting systems". I have also heard about it and people said it is pretty good. They have baseball, hockey, and basketball. $1,000 for one year, but I got a link that gives it to you for $60/month. If anyone wants to give it a try we can chip in and share it. I'll include the picks on my daily bets thread so even the people that didn'e chip in can see the plays.

Or maybe someone already has it and can share the picks with us?

P.M. me if interested.

[saro7]

Do not fall for the "Worlds greatest sports betting systems" joke. I tried it last year and they obliterated my bankroll.

Here's an email from them after they lost a big series:

"We lost game#3 of selection#1 last night with the Charlotte Bobcats.

To make things right and make up for our first game#3 loss ever we are releasing our highest percentage game of the year tonight.

This game qualifies for our make up game on Golden State, our make up game on our last game#3 Charlotte push against Denver and our current pending game#3 of selection#3.

We are not suggesting to bet the house on this game, however according to our algorithms there is a 99% chance this game wins.

We will be moving to a game#3 of selection#3 tonight with the Dallas Mavericks. The current line is Dallas -3 After buying the 2.5 points.

Please due to the enormously high email volume from last's night loss we ask that you refrain from emailing customer service regarding this game. We are staking our entire reputation on this game so use your own best judgement if the line moves beyond -4."



Yeah...staking their entire reputation on 1 game. 99% chance that the game wins. Guess what? Dallas got destroyed so bad that night it wasn't even funny. They didn't just lost ATS, they straight up lost the game. These guys must have pulled the "99% chance" out of their ***. They've costed me and a lot of others a lot of money.

The sports betting champ system is still the only profitable program I've tried so far.

[Cheme82]

If that's the e-mail they sent you then forget about them. It's easy to be on the plus side every month if you chase like that. Thanks for the update. I thought these guys were good.

Has anybody else used this system?

[mcbain]

possible NHL system

Good and bad news so far after going through this season's data in the NHL, looking for a possible any 3-game road trip A-B-C series betting system.

(I might put this in a new thread under NHL as well but thought I would post here because we were discussing it here).

This season so far if one was to bet every team heading out on a 3 game road trip (and split 6-game trip into two bets) on a straight moneyline bet record would be:

76 A wins
43 B wins
17 C wins

for 136 total wins which sounds nice.

However, you would encounter, if you bet moneyline with no filters:

27 losses

Your record is 136-27 and with series betting you are down for the season.

So with those numbers we have no system.

HOWEVER, if we bet the +1.5 line on all our road teams (when available and looking at the games only one team would have been favored on the road, DET), we would save

22 of those losses turn to wins
as there was at least one game in the series where our team lost by only 1 goal.

Further, if we eliminated playing teams in the second 3 of a 6-game roadie, we could eiminated another

3 losses (and one of those was DET)

So we are down to 2 outright losses

The last filter that we could apply would be to elminate betting on the teams with the 5 worst road records (or 4 or 3, something like that).

That would eliminate another loss as OTT would not have been a play.

That would leave us with ONE outright loss, Carolina series starting on Jan. 8 of this year.

So applying a +1.5 betting strategy, skip the second 3 games of the long trips, don't bet on the absolute worst road teams, you could come up with a record of

145-1

(the original 136 wins plus the 22 gained by betting +1.5, take off 13 wins by skipping second set of 3 on 6-game trips and taking off the losses that simply would not have been bet.)

Is that clear to everyone? I'm sure not.

Anyway, that's all I've got. If this would work for previous seasons I am not sure yet but I invite anyone to take a look.

[whatisit]

Wait but if you apply those filters with not playing teams in the 2nd 3 of a 6 game trip, and the teams with the worst road records..how many wins would that take away from wat you calculated? I'm sure some of the wins you calculated had teams that were in this filter as well.

[mcbain]

Yes, you are quite right. I just realized that myself. I will check how many wins were in the second set of 3.

So the record would be one loss, but I will correct how many wins (if applying those filters).

EDIT: I checked, and 13 wins came in the second set of 3. So final record of

145-1

[DevilDog]

Portland did NOT fit the system. They are on a five game road trip through the east. They lost the A game and won the B game against Memphis. With all the discussion about this system, and as easy as it is to figure out, I am absolutely AMAZED some of you can't figure it out!!!! My goodness.

[mcbain]

Last I checked, Memphis plays in the WEST.

Therefore, Portland's road trip against the east teams only didn't start until tonight against IND.

So, it was an A play under the JM sysem.

[Cheme82]

Hey I did the NHL thing for the 07-08 season with the same rules mcbain ran the current season. I only changed the fact that I didn't include the bottom 20% road records (took out 6 out of 30 teams). Here is what I got:

141 Wins
5 Losses (Nashville 10/17 to 10/23, Minnesota 10/24 to 10/28, Colorado 11/16 to 11/20, Anaheim 1/24 to 2/1, and Vancouver 3/25 to 3/28)
3 of the 5 losses had games lost by one goal but the teams were favored on that game so the +1.5 didn't apply. Minnesota on 10/25, Anaheim on 2/1, and Vancouver on 3/25.

Now the important thing is the juice you have to lay when getting +1.5 (which is what most of the bets will be using). On a game where the favorite is -120 and the "dog" is +100, getting that dog at +1.5 will cost you about -265 juice. On a favorite of -300 and a dog of +250, buying the +1.5 will bring the dog all the way down to (-110). Now let's assume an average line of -190 for getting the +1.5.

Game A: Lay 1.9 to win 1 unit
Game B: Lay 5.5 to win 2.9 units (the 1.9 lost on bet A and the 1 unit profit)
Game C: Lay 16 to win 8.4 units (5.5 lost on bet B+1.9 lost on bet A+1 unit of profit)

So a series loss sets you back about 23.4 units.

For this year so far: 145-1(23.4)= 121.6 units profit
07-08: 141-5(23.4)=24 units profit

Since last season would have showed a very small profit compared to this season I added the following filter: "Only play series with teams that have a winning road record".

That brought the losses down to 2, and the wins down to 93. So the record would have been:

93-2(23.4)=46.2 units won

If anyone wants to run the new filter on this season to see the new numbers that would be great. Also if anyone wants to do it for 06-07 that would be even better. I think we might have something here.

[netinfo]

mcbain,

Thanks for the calculations! The 145-1 record is quite a good record, and is comparable to Cartytay. Now, unlike the NBA with point buying (where each road team can be purchased at -170), in the NHL we woun't have one value for each road team (some might be at -120, others at -300, etc.), so I'm not sure how we can calculate how much a series loss is worth compared to how much each of the series wins are worth. Other than this, your calcuations look quite good.

netinfo

[netinfo]

cheme82,

Thanks! I see the average -190 sounds good. And with the extra filter, we might have something here.

netinfo

[sportsbetwin]

1. Portland was a play - those of us who bought the system know the system.

2. I like the work you guys are doing on the NHL.

[netinfo]

5 Losses (Nashville 10/17 to 10/23, Minnesota 10/24 to 10/28, Colorado 11/16 to 11/20, Anaheim 1/24 to 2/1, and Vancouver 3/25 to 3/28)
3 of the 5 losses had games lost by one goal but the teams were favored on that game so the +1.5 didn't apply. Minnesota on 10/25, Anaheim on 2/1, and Vancouver on 3/25.

For this year so far: 145-1(23.4)= 121.6 units profit
07-08: 141-5(23.4)=24 units profit

Wait a minute cheme, since you said the 3 teams among the 5 losses were favored and didn't follow the +1.5 criteria, then why would you include them among the losses of the 07-08? Shouldn't the record be 141-2? If this is the case, then this is really good, and that last extra filter is not needed. So, we have:

This year: 145 - 1 (+121.6 units)
07-08: 141 - 2 (+94.2 units)

Unless I made a mistake somewhere, I think we're good with this so far.

netinfo

[bolekblues]

Your right, and the worst thing is if we have the lowest value on the C bet, then if our series loses it costs us very much

[Cheme82]

You only buy the +1.5 if it is available (the road team is a dog). But since you have no way of knowing wether a team would be a dog by the time bet "B" or "C" come along, then you just play them on the ML.

If you have to guarantee a team will be a dog in all 3 road games then you would also have to ignore all the wins by the top teams on the league (that's a lot of wins), because you would only play series on average teams that will not play against a really bad team (because then they will be favored).

[netinfo]

I see, good point.

netinfo

[MadStu]

Wow, some good work here guys.

[Hard10]

1. Portland was a play - those of us who bought the system know the system.

2. I like the work you guys are doing on the NHL.

SBW,

I agree with you on both quotes. I had Portland on my calender a month ago. Easy win. With some tweaking here and there I think McBain is very close to some big $$$$. Good Work !

[mcbain]

"

[Cheme82]

Playing only teams with winning road records would have improved the units won on the 07-08 season by 22.2 units. But even if we only use the filters used originally (not playing the worst 6 road records), we still show a profit (only 24 units). Big difference to this year, let me do 06-07 and we'll have a third point of reference.

Hang tight.

[mcbain]

Cheme82: were you able to know if the team had a winning road record at the start of the series or just at the end of the year had a winning road record?

Thanks a lot for the help. I was trying to figure this all out manually going team by team. Do you have another method?

[mkchung]

hi all... can someone show me where i can buy this system? i'm a little confused as to what the rules are and what makes an A game, different from a B game. thanks in advance

[Cheme82]

No bro, I just use the final records for the backtrack. And I do it by hand too. Takes about 30 minutes to go through a season

Ok guys, the 06-07 season sucked ass, here are the #'s.

Wins: 120
Losses: 9
Units: 120-9(23.4)= -90.6 Units

Adding the "Only teams with winning road records" filter makes it a little better, but still on the red:

Wins: 85
Losses: 6
Units: 85-6(23.4)= -55.4 Units

[brooks85]

mkchung, just read through the forums for a full understanding of the system, back to the first few pages of the thread. Also, the season is winding down so dont go risk too much on it.

[mkchung]

thanks brooks85. i tried to read through it but there's so much. i've been following ck's thread and there's always mention of a jm play so just trying to get it sorted out in my head for the next seasn

[mcbain]

I guess the only good news from this is that the seasons are getting better and better as we get closer to present day and as I said the schedule was constructed differently in the NHL back in 06-07.

Also keep in mind those unit numbers listed are based on making all bets at -190 odds when in many cases the odds would like be higher.

I think based on the recent (2007-09) numbers numbers I will make an attempt using a small % of the bankroll starting next NHL season.

I will buy +1.5 when available, use good road teams, and play only the first 3 games of any road trips.

I believe it will turn a profit but only another year going by will be able to tell us for sure...

Ok guys, the 06-07 season sucked ass, here are the #'s.

Wins: 120
Losses: 9
Units: 120-9(23.4)= -90.6 Units

Adding the "Only teams with winning road records" filter makes it a little better, but still on the red:

Wins: 85
Losses: 6
Units: 85-6(23.4)= -55.4 Units

[Cheme82]

Maybe the way the schedules are today makes it better. I'll play the remaining series on the season. Only on teams with winning road records. I'll get the remaining series here in a few minutes in case anyone wants to give it a shot.

[SeahawkSanders]

Thanks cheme, I'm definitely interested in this.

[Cheme82]

Ok guys, 8 series left:

NJ: 3/22-3/27
Pitt: 4/4-4/7
Wash: 3/19-3/24 and 4/7-4/11 Washington (-222) to win $100 W
Det: 3/20-3/24
Vanc: 3/21-3/26
Edm: 3/19-3/22 Bet A: Edmonton (-108) to win $100
Ana: 3/31-4/4

I will play them all to win $100 starting with Edmonton and Washington today. I will list them on my daily bets thread and will come to update them here. good luck if anyone else gives it a shot.

[mcbain]

Good luck cheme, hopefully this system we've cooked up works well on these 8 remaining series.

I will make small bets on each series as well.