New nba power rating system

[eanelson]

Formulawiz, I also see PHI as a play at -1.5. Did you get this?

[djpremier36]

PHI/NYK game.... i got 101(PR) - 97(PR) = 4 - 2(SPREAD) = 2..so no play unless spread goes to 1 or 1.5.

[eanelson]

Yeah, looks like it is back to -2 most places. No play on PHI.

[larryacraig]

wow....hope this works

[IrwinFletcher]

Why is Utah at Dal not a play?.. UT/102.5-DAL/100.5 = +2+5(spread) = 7

[gameday10]

Why is Utah at Dal not a play?.. UT/102.5-DAL/100.5 = +2+5(spread) = 7

Believe because Utah has higher PR but is being given points. So falls into Rule 3.

[IrwinFletcher]

Believe because Utah has higher PR but is being given points. So falls into Rule 3.

This applies only to home dogs, no?

EDIT: Just reread rule 3.. home team is laying points.. my bad..

[Formulawiz]

This applies only to home dogs, no?

EDIT: Just reread rule 3.. home team is laying points.. my bad..

It has nothing to do with a team being home. You can have a scenario where the away team has a lower PR then the home team and is laying pts. This does not happen too often but I have seen it. I should have explained this better originally.

[MexicanStallion]

What are the final plays now?

[Plu$Money]

games are about to start, does anyone have the official plays??

[gameday10]

portland -2.5
New Orleans -2.5

for the early games. I seen NO at -1 last night and almost took it. Decide to wait before game time and now it's -2.5.

edit: 1-0 for today with boston

edit: also like to add NO -3 is not play, if you get that.

[Plu$Money]

thanks.. detroit is still having problems the hornets should be able to cover anyway

[Formulawiz]

record keeping

games are about to start, does anyone have the official plays??

This is the second time I have asked you to stop confusing people with your records. We already have an official record being tallied.

[Plu$Money]

this is my signature, it has absolutely nothing to do with your systems record... i'm tracking my picks not yours

[Formulawiz]

What are the final plays now?

See post #131. You need to read the posts
Thanks

[Meestermike]

Mediocre start, but I have certainly seen worse. Lets hope to get some winners for tomorrow!

System Record:

Win 3
Loss 3
50.00%

I think I am losing it with this thing.
Above the record says from Jan 14th 3-3
Jan 15th had two plays that went 1-1 so now we're at 4-4. with me so far I hope.
Jan 16th we saw 8 plays that went 5-3 so after yesterday we're now at 9-7.

Magic has taken on a new meaning...

Thanks for the info on the line posting. That was kind of what I figured.

My bad on the interpretation of rule 3. I thought you were making that a hard and fast thing. It makes sense to keep track on the side and see how it plays out.

So as of now, the system is:

System Record:
Win 16
Loss 4
80.00%

Rule 3 Plays:
Win 0
Loss 1
00.00%

How in the name of the NBA unless they let that ref back in that was fixing games did this PR system get to 16-4

[MexicanStallion]

See post #131. You need to read the posts
Thanks

I read the post. Thanks. You always talk about posting 15-20 minutes before gametime.

[djpremier36]

Looking forward to Sunday, from my calculations...it looks like Miami is a play (+4.5 number equated).

It is a B2B game for Miami and OKC have been really good at home as well as excellent against the spread, so it is no "gimmie".

I feel the line will go up so... I broke rule #1 and am playing MIA at -1.5.

[gameday10]

Looking forward to Sunday, from my calculations...it looks like Miami is a play (+4.5 number equated).

It is a B2B game for Miami and OKC have been really good at home as well as excellent against the spread, so it is no "gimmie".

I feel the line will go up so... I broke rule #1 and am playing MIA at -1.5.

Yea, same thing with me last night. I did calculations and seen NO was a play and they were -1 at the time. Decided to wait, because of the rule, and they went to -2.5 but were still a play and took them at -2.5 when I could have had them at -1. Still good though. It I see the number comes out far from 2 then I am playing. But if it is around 2 like 2.5, 3, 3.5 and same with -2 then I will wait it out.

[gameday10]

Also, formulawiz if you could post the sheet for college bb for tomorrow that would be great. Thanks

[gameday10]

For the MIL game, the play was MIL -1. If you got them at +1, then you have a great book b/c at my book they were -1.

If you are using H/W PR, you should first calculate the difference no differently, then just add or subtract 3 based on whether the home or away team had the higher PR (add 3 for home team, subtract 3 for away team). That make sense.

As far as record, the system went 4-3 tonight. Wins were CLE, UTA, MIL, ORL. Losses were NY, TOR, ATL. The Wizards were a Rule 3 pick and they one. The records are:

System Record:
Win 21
Loss 8
72.49%

Rule 3 Plays:
Win 1
Loss 1
50.00%

Formulawiz, can you confirm this? This is what I have been doing, but your post say nothing about subtracting 3 if lower PR is home team.

[eanelson]

2-2 Today on system plays. Wins were BOS, NOH. Losses were MIL, POR.

1-1 on Rule 3 plays. Win was DAL. Loss was DEN.

System Record:
Win 23
Loss 9
71.88%

Rule 3 Plays:
Win 2
Loss 2
50.00%


To clear it up, since we have been tracking this system in this thread (1/14/09), the system is 10-7 according to my records. We get the 23-9 because Formulawiz wanted to count the previous 2 days on the system record (1/12, 1/11). I think 10-7 might be more accurate, but time will tell.

[-*MeMpHiS*-]

I tested Friday night and went
6 wins
1 loss

it does work!

[jcz889]

Hmm...10-7 doesn't sound too impressive, but 23-9 is not bad at all! And if Memphis' results are representative of the system....

[Formulawiz]

Formulawiz, can you confirm this? This is what I have been doing, but your post say nothing about subtracting 3 if lower PR is home team.

If you use the H/A PR's system instead of the OV PR system add 3 points to the home team. Thats the only difference. I always use the overall system and dont apply 3 pts for HCA. Lets not get confused here.

[Formulawiz]

2-2 Today on system plays. Wins were BOS, NOH. Losses were MIL, POR.

1-1 on Rule 3 plays. Win was DAL. Loss was DEN.

System Record:
Win 23
Loss 9
71.88%

Rule 3 Plays:
Win 2
Loss 2
50.00%


To clear it up, since we have been tracking this system in this thread (1/14/09), the system is 10-7 according to my records. We get the 23-9 because Formulawiz wanted to count the previous 2 days on the system record (1/12, 1/11). I think 10-7 might be more accurate, but time will tell.

I started using sportrends system early on this season and I have been killing them. I dont keep records but maybe I should have. By accident I went through my garbage 3 days before introducing the system and found those win/loss records. Believe me I was very happy these 3 days because I went 3-2, 4-0 and 6-0. Look I have nothing to hide its not like the PR's move quickly, to the contrary they move very slowly based on the number of games I use. Of course if we used less games which are more recent, I believe the PR's would fluctuate more quickly. When I first posted the PR I believe some of you went back and verified those games. Look whatever you guys want to do with the win/loss record is fine with me.

[Formulawiz]

NBA PR Chart

Here is todays PR chart
MIA - 1.5 looks like a play

[Formulawiz]

college hoops pr chart

Guys its just too much work. You can imagine the task I had today entering the college hoops schedule, scores and odds from yesterday. Thats why its important to get the NBA spreadsheet automated first and then work on the college spreadsheet.
To make things easier for me just go to sportrends following link and the PR chart is already there. Remember add 3 points to home team and the rules are the same. By the way I went 4-2 yesterday in college hoops. The system worked real nice. I believe rule #3 plays split and there were alot of them.
Also forgot to mention be careful with the # of games a team has at home or away. You need at least 2 to 3 games played. In other words dont take a team with only 1 road game if they are playing on the road today.

http://www.sportrends.com/team_pr_cbb.htm

[Meestermike]

Guys its just too much work. You can imagine the task I had today entering the college hoops schedule, scores and odds from yesterday. Thats why its important to get the NBA spreadsheet automated first and then work on the college spreadsheet.
To make things easier for me just go to sportrends following link and the PR chart is already there. Remember add 3 points to home team and the rules are the same. By the way I went 4-2 yesterday in college hoops. The system worked real nice. I believe rule #3 plays split and there were alot of them.
Also forgot to mention be careful with the # of games a team has at home or away. You need at least 2 to 3 games played. In other words dont take a team with only 1 road game if they are playing on the road today.

http://www.sportrends.com/team_pr_cbb.htm

Just want to ay a huge thank you to you F-wiz. This is very time consuming to say the least. Enjoy your day and we'll get this thing moving along as well and as soon as is humanly possible. We need to keep in mind that this PR rating is one of many tools for handicapping and the forum members must realize we do not do this as a service or as a job full time. I enjoy new ideas and learning how to tweak things. This is a hobby for me and it will remain that.

Thanks again to both yourself and eanelson for all your hard work on these sheets.

[Formulawiz]

Just want to ay a huge thank you to you F-wiz. This is very time consuming to say the least. Enjoy your day and we'll get this thing moving along as well and as soon as is humanly possible. We need to keep in mind that this PR rating is one of many tools for handicapping and the forum members must realize we do not do this as a service or as a job full time. I enjoy new ideas and learning how to tweak things. This is a hobby for me and it will remain that.

Thanks again to both yourself and eanelson for all your hard work on these sheets.

Mike you hit the nail right on the head. This system is a terrific tool and it has been very good to me over the years finding value plays. I know for a fact many top handicappers are using this system in conjunction with other systems. Again you should be aware like any system it has good days and bad days and thats why its very important to utilize other tools to confirm your plays. I just dont want everybody to fall into a bad habit by following just one system. Try to get your hands on as many systems as possible it cant hurt. Look we are all here to help each other win. I am sure after we get our system automated which will make life much simpler, we can work on improving its performance.

[Formulawiz]

Todays NBA plays

Watch out. MIA fell into rule#3. OKL is now a 1 pt Fav.
therefore no play today unless it goes to pickem.

[curious]

What is a good source for the closing line the day before?

I can get the current line from lots of places but having trouble finding the closing line from the day before.

Curious

[losturmarbles]

I can get the current line from lots of places but having trouble finding the closing line from the day before.

Curious

covers?

[Meestermike]

I can get the current line from lots of places but having trouble finding the closing line from the day before.

Curious

SBR Scoreboard. just specify which book you want to use in tools at the top of the page, Also scores aand odds dot com

[eanelson]

System plays were 0-0 today.

Rule 3 plays were 0-1. Loss was on OKC.

System Record:
Win 23
Loss 9
71.88%

Rule 3 Plays:
Win 2
Loss 3
40.00%