Leans for Monday 1/12/09

cocknocker · 01-12-09, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by zackattack

ck at 3pm no way you are getting a total of 187 even with 2 point buy for wash/bucks........its 192

Yeah, my bad, I got it at 191.5

sprasad03 · 01-12-09, 03:47 PM

ya i think toronto wins with the spread as well but we will see.

Dexter · 01-12-09, 03:54 PM

ok, utah back up to 10.5...i like that

akharlip · 01-12-09, 04:18 PM

CK,
havent posted since fri but still tailing ya

First off everyone hear who was blasting your plays yesterday obviously havent been here long to know that you are a great capper and do give great insights and have made people here a ton of cash.

K.. Enough with the sucking up LOL

Tonights Plays
Bucks-3
Jazz-9.5(bought the hook) HEAVY
Portalnd-2.5

3 Team Parlay
Portland
Jazz
Bucks

2 Team Parlay
Notre Dame+8(bought a point n half)
Oklahoma-4.5

BOL TO ALL AND I'M SURE WE WILL CHAT LATER TODAY

THANKS FOR THE INSIGHTS
akharlip........

cocknocker · 01-12-09, 04:21 PM

CJ Milesa was downgraded to doubtful for today's game against the Pacers. Darren Williams is in, TJ Ford is in.

Calderon, O'Neal out for Toronto
Paul Pierce questionable (which means out to me)for the Celtics
Rondo's a go (probable)
Tony Allen is questionable (basically out)

The Bulls line is still because of the uncertainty as to who will be on the floor tonight but

Luol Deng is in (1st game back, confirmed)
Goodenis in
Nocioni is questionable (out) he missed last game too.
Sefolosha is doubtful with illness

I seriously doubt that Deng is gonna have an impact in his first game, but apparently he is worth a half point I'm seeing

vassman86 · 01-12-09, 04:30 PM

The Blazers line of -2/-2.5 has me scratching my head. The way I see it, Portland takes it easily. But 82% of bettors on the Blazers and the line is so stiff. Are we being trapped here?

zackattack · 01-12-09, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by vassman86

The Blazers line of -2/-2.5 has me scratching my head. The way I see it, Portland takes it easily. But 82% of bettors on the Blazers and the line is so stiff. Are we being trapped here?

yes i believe it is a trap........everyone and anyone seems to be on portland.....even espn wants us to take portland,and the way the bulls played over the weekend you would think this line would be higher.......i am playing the chit bulls even thou i think portland is much better team.......linesmaker knows something.

squirrels · 01-12-09, 04:37 PM

akHARLIP WHY DO YOU THINK NOTRE DAME IS GONNA GO ON THE ROAD AND STAY WITHI NOT ONLY 8 OR EVEN 10. WHEN NOTRE DAME HAS NO BENCH, AD PITINO WILL BE ON THEM ALL NIGHT WITH THE FULL COURT PRESS

gdaujat · 01-12-09, 04:39 PM

Hi,
My Bets for today:
Toronto V Boston +10 (score predict 97-99)WIN
New York V New Orleans +12 (score predict 99-95)WIN
Indiana V Utah Under 220 (total predict 208)LOSS
Good luck everyone

Cheers
Greg

cs11787 · 01-12-09, 04:39 PM

Hey Ck,
Glad to hear you and I are both taking Bos for our biggest play today. Are you still comfortable even thought Perk and Pierce will be out for this game? I see the line has gone down to 9.5.

zackattack · 01-12-09, 04:40 PM

portland now down to -2

cocknocker · 01-12-09, 04:45 PM

Pierce ain't gonna play tonight. No problem. His production will be replaced by someone else in the lineup. I am surprised that the line didn't dip more with this bad news. He's got to be at least worth a point off the line...

cocknocker · 01-12-09, 04:47 PM

zackattack, the Portland line is coming down becaue of Gooden and Deng's return

cheesehead004 · 01-12-09, 04:50 PM

Boston needed Ray Allen to catch fire from 3 point line, and they barely escaped a monumental 4th quarter collapse with a close win at the end. And now the game goes north of the border, and the line is Boston -10.5? WTF is going on?

africanroller · 01-12-09, 04:51 PM

Well Zack one of us is winning big tonight.

akharlip · 01-12-09, 04:55 PM

squirrels,
Notre Dame is far too good to be getting these many points.
Sure Louiville is great at home but...
Louisville is 8-20 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less since 1997, 6-19 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less since 1997, and 1-8 ATS in home games when playing their 3rd game in a week over the last 3 seasons.
They are in letdown mode tonight....
ND havent been playing well lately they turn it around by maybe not winning but def covering I think
Take the points.

Si_Fly-entist · 01-12-09, 05:01 PM

Hi I'm also a newbie to the forums but I've been hitting like Barry Bonds...(on HGH) since I've started following the CK Crew...I faithfully check these forums everyday and I gotta say U've been a true blessing for an odds player like myself...For tonight I love Por -3, Chi is clearly over matched...not to mention they played back to back Fri and Sat night...with only one day of rest in between I like Portland to cover that easily...this is almost a gimme pick! I also think Utah -11 will cover those points at home tonight and stop the Pacers covering spree. I think that Indiana is running low on fuel after playing such a tough road trip...I would be suprised if the total tops 210pts tonight...I think Utah will run away with this one and easily go under that total of 220...not to mention Utah is hot commodity at home...gotta go with the Sweet Music of The Jazz on this one...In College Basketball I like Tex +4.5 tonight and I think it will go under the total of 136...I look for a better all-around Texas team to get the job done against and OKL team that relies on Blake Griffin 2 much. Other than the 29 he scored against Kansas St. the Sooners had only one other player in double digits. I expect a very athletic texas team to be able to contain Griffin to some extent...couple that with AJ Abrams going only 2-10 from the field last game and U can expect him to bring his "A" game for tonight's matchup.

cocknocker · 01-12-09, 05:03 PM

We have heard from those who trangressed, but still no willpies. Since he didn't chime in his plays as requested, I will put them on the board for our examination.

Hornets-11 or so
Hornets/Knicks under 203.5 or so

Sloanie29 · 01-12-09, 05:22 PM

Better to lay off Portland -2.5 now? Def seems like something is up with next to no line movement and 80%+ of the bettors on Portland.

BelieveTheHype · 01-12-09, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

We have heard from those who trangressed, but still no willpies. Since he didn't chime in his plays as requested, I will put them on the board for our examination.

Hornets-11 or so
Hornets/Knicks under 203.5 or so

Hornets 15-18 ATS
8-8 at Home
5-6 favored by 7.5+
4-6 vs Eastern Conference
7-13 ATS after a win

Knicks 17-17 ATS
11-8 on Road
8-3 underdog by 7.5+
11-7 Road underdog
8-6 ATS vs Western Conference

nonsense48 · 01-12-09, 05:37 PM

depending on portland news i may switch to nicks+11' and bypass blazers. we shall see.

mjeecay · 01-12-09, 05:37 PM

If nobody has yet to debrief the Chicago and Portland game, I will try to convince you to switch off the Trail Blazers and go with the Bulls.

Chicago is 4-0 ATS on Monday and they are 4-1 ATS as underdogs of 4.5 or less points. The Bulls are 16-5 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points and they are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games as home dogs of 4.5 or less points. Portland is burning their money going 5-12 ATS their last 17 games and they are 1-7 ATS with one day of rest. The Trailblazers are 0-7 ATS their last 7 road games and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as road favorites.

As a favorite,Portland is a lousy 29-37 ATS over the last 3 years. On the road,the Trailblazers are a losing 47-53 ATS over the past 3 seasons. Against Central division foes,Portland is just 10-13 ATS over the past 3 years. As a home underdog when getting 3 points or less. The Bulls are a positive 7-5 ATS over the last 3 years. When coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Chicago is 7-5 ATS during the last 3 years. CHICAGO OVER Portland.

What do you guys think about the UNDER game on Celtics/Raptors?

africanroller · 01-12-09, 05:41 PM

I have seen a lot of premium picks today going to Chicago and thespread has Portland as the most bet on team today.

BigPat · 01-12-09, 05:43 PM

Deng and Gooden are back. Who cares. Roy is back and he is a monster. I am not buying what Vegas is selling. Port ML for me.

Dexter · 01-12-09, 05:43 PM

final booked plays-

raptors +9.5
jazz -10.5

Dexter · 01-12-09, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by BigPat

Deng and Gooden are back. Who cares. Roy is back and he is a monster. I am not buying what Vegas is selling. Port ML for me.

what is vegas selling you? the line is where it should be.

80% of the public is on portland tonight...

africanroller · 01-12-09, 05:48 PM

I am going with the Bucks as that line is at least doing what it should. 87% on Portland now and the line drops.

No one has any opinion on Citadel tonight? Wheres DF when you need him?

No interest on two big NCAA games tonight with Louisville playing ND and Texas and Oklahoma?

nonsense48 · 01-12-09, 05:49 PM

does anyone have any recent negative news on port@chi? if not i still say port and i still may take the points and add the nicks. something must be up with port tho with the line going south. come on gang, WHAT'S UP?

ram1502 · 01-12-09, 05:52 PM

Blazers

Originally posted by mjeecay

If nobody has yet to debrief the Chicago and Portland game, I will try to convince you to switch off the Trail Blazers and go with the Bulls.

Chicago is 4-0 ATS on Monday and they are 4-1 ATS as underdogs of 4.5 or less points. The Bulls are 16-5 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points and they are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games as home dogs of 4.5 or less points. Portland is burning their money going 5-12 ATS their last 17 games and they are 1-7 ATS with one day of rest. The Trailblazers are 0-7 ATS their last 7 road games and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as road favorites.

As a favorite,Portland is a lousy 29-37 ATS over the last 3 years. On the road,the Trailblazers are a losing 47-53 ATS over the past 3 seasons. Against Central division foes,Portland is just 10-13 ATS over the past 3 years. As a home underdog when getting 3 points or less. The Bulls are a positive 7-5 ATS over the last 3 years. When coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Chicago is 7-5 ATS during the last 3 years. CHICAGO OVER Portland.

What do you guys think about the UNDER game on Celtics/Raptors?

Take a look at who the Blazers have played their last 7 road games bro.....@ Lakers, @ Nuggets, @ Jazz, @ Raptors, @ Celtics, @ Knicks, @ Wizards....with the Wizards being the ONLY team of those 7 who have a lower power ranking than the Bulls. Still think the Blazers -1.5 is an absolute gift. Guess we will see........

mjeecay · 01-12-09, 05:58 PM

I've got Portland -2.5 on my line. It's a difficult game to play nonetheless.

How confident are you guys feeling on Utah -10.5 + Under 220 action?

nonsense48 · 01-12-09, 05:59 PM

very confident with utah-10' i can't find any neg. news on port. so i'm stickin' with them to hand chi. another loss.

sprasad03 · 01-12-09, 06:05 PM

idk i think yall downplayin deng for chicago, chicago will pull the upset tonight.

BigPat · 01-12-09, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

what is vegas selling you? the line is where it should be.

80% of the public is on portland tonight...

I just feel like they are making the line small to make it look like a close game, this will be a blowout.

Dexter · 01-12-09, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by nonsense48

does anyone have any recent negative news on port@chi? if not i still say port and i still may take the points and add the nicks. something must be up with port tho with the line going south. come on gang, WHAT'S UP?

see post 153...

CTS5 · 01-12-09, 06:12 PM

I passed on the knicks because line went down to 11.5 and I hate that number. I just fully invested all my funds in the boston game tonight at -9.5. I also took the 1st half -5.5 because boston should come out fired up at home, and I'm sure Doc Rivers gave them the speech that everyone is counting us out now so lets show them what we got. Lets kill the RAPTORS!! lol something like that