Leans for Tuesday 1/6/09 "Over Day"

isiah121 · 01-06-09, 12:41 AM

CK, how long are you gonna wait for the Hornets line? The line has gone up .5 points to 7.5 now.

Dexter · 01-06-09, 12:43 AM

cant like the fact that ball st's coach has jumped ship right before the bowl game. i never undertsand how a coach can do that to his players. conf usa is 3-1 in bowls this year, while the mac is at 0-3 going into friday 1/2/09. both offenses are loaded, and led by star qb's in nate davis and david johnson. 47-40 tulsa.

*tulsa
*no play on total Inclement weather expected (severe thunderstorms and gusty winds)SURFACE: Field Turf
_________________________________
sixers with their first home game after a long 7 game west coast trip - now they catch a hungry/healthy rockets team who should be eager to get a w after blowing a late lead in atlanta. rockets should be about a 5 pt choice with tmac and artest set to play - artest will likely sit wed.

*rockets
__________________________________
i wonder if the knicks are still celebrating their win over boston - throw in a revenge angle for the thunder from a 10pt loss in nov at the garden, and i'll take the home dog.

*thunder
__________________________________

Saluki09 · 01-06-09, 12:46 AM

I like the OVER at 178 on the Celtics-Bobcats game. To start off with the average for the Celtics is 97 points on the road and 91 for the Bobcats at home. The last meeting b/w them the total was only 173, but there was dreadful shooting. In the previous game Garnett shot 4-12 and Felton shot 2-15. As a team the Celtics shot 44% which is below there average of 48%. The Bobcats also only shot 68% FT which is below their average of 74%. These are just some little things to look at but I think the Celtics are mad about NY and will come out scoring. Rondo needs to have a good game though so he can set up Pierce, Allen, and KG. Last game Rondo only had 4 points and 9 assists with 5 fouls. Look for KG and Felton to have better games as well.

gdaujat · 01-06-09, 12:59 AM

Hi guys,
I like 2 game totals for overs
Boston v Charlotte over 179 Win (189-192 my calculations)
LA Clippers v Dallas over 182.5 Win (192-196 my calculations)
Other bets are:
Washington +12.5 Win (my calculations +6.5)
Minnasotta +4.0 Win (my calculations -4.5)
New York -2.0 under 218.50 Loss / Win (my calculations -7.5 and 193-197)
LA Clippers +13.5 Win (my calculations +4.5)
LA Lakers -7.5 Loss (my calculations -13)
This is my first post for letting it all hang out so be kind. My calculations are what I think the result will be or hope!
Great work you all do
Peace
Greg
Melbourne, Australia

machovari · 01-06-09, 01:08 AM

I don't know why anybody isn't on the Memphis game tomorow. I think that Minnesota is due to a big loss at Memphis, especially after 2 surprising wins in a row. Memphis will also wanna revenge that OT loss few days ago in Minnesota. They also are comming after a big win over Dallas. Momentum is just perfect!
This play will be my game of the day
Memphis(-3) BIG

cocknocker · 01-06-09, 01:16 AM

aluki09 and andgdaujat

I like that Boston/Charlotte over, and so does the Missus. I just wasn't going to list her play until much later onin the day. But the reseach that you two have done yeilds a very potent play. it's going to be hard for the rest of the board to top that one. Situationally, this is one that looks perfect to the eye like a 5 point diamond.

isiah121,

I am going to wait as long as possible for the New Orleans line. If things go the way that they do customarily or the Lakers and their spreads, the line will go up, especially with 74% of bettors on the side of the Mighty Lakers, i am sure that there will be some movement. I would ideally like to catch the Hornets +9 and take them at +10.

Dexter, I think that I am gonna leave that Tulsa/Ball State game alone. The line is spot on, and i don't think that there will be much more movement on that game. The total line moved down from an opening of 77 to 74.5. Something inside of me is shifting on taking Oklahoma tomorrow. As I stated prieviously, the Big12 has horrid defense, and the SEC does not. I see that I have cashed tickets by fading all of the "Powers" of the Big10, Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma State. I don't think that I should stop that trend. With 65% of the public on the Gators side, the line is doing exactly what it is supposed to do, and it has gone up from 3 which is a field goal game, to 4 which is a touchdown game. I think tomorrow Florida is the call...

Devon · 01-06-09, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by Saluki09;137****

I like the OVER at 178 on the Celtics-Bobcats game. To start off with the average for the Celtics is 97 points on the road and 91 for the Bobcats at home. The last meeting b/w them the total was only 173, but there was dreadful shooting. In the previous game Garnett shot 4-12 and Felton shot 2-15. As a team the Celtics shot 44% which is below there average of 48%. The Bobcats also only shot 68% FT which is below their average of 74%. These are just some little things to look at but I think the Celtics are mad about NY and will come out scoring. Rondo needs to have a good game though so he can set up Pierce, Allen, and KG. Last game Rondo only had 4 points and 9 assists with 5 fouls. Look for KG and Felton to have better games as well.

It is a low number but around the mark.

What I came across was:

*The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games
*The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
*The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Charlotte
*The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte's last 6 games
*The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 6 games at home
*The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte's last 6 games when playing Boston

This season

BOS
OU OVERALL 15-19-1
OU (AWAY) 5-11

CHARLOTTE
OU OVERALL 14-20
OU (HOME) 9-12

Head2Head (10 games)
OU 5-5
Average Score: BOS 96.9/CHAR 95
Average OU Line: 193.1
*Boston might decide to cruise it tomorrow as they have a game against the Rockets the following day.

Might be a good idea to fade it.

cocknocker · 01-06-09, 01:22 AM

C'mon boys and girls, we have 8 damn games tomorrow. I expected for more of the CK Mafia to chime in with something tonight.. I want a spectacular over call to invest my money on, wake up everybody!

AdaBarber · 01-06-09, 01:38 AM

Minnesota at Memphis Over 194

Minnesota has been lighting it up in its last 5 games averaging a crazy 103. 8 points a game at 45.2% shooting. But what is good for the goose is also good for the gander. They are also giving up more than they are putting out, 104.6 at 45.4% shooting. On the road they allow 102.5 at 46.6%. They are still allowing 50 rebounds a game on the road in the last five which is the average for the season. But they have also started rebounding more which has contributed the increase in offense and shooting percentage.

On the other hand, this spells a shootout of small proportions with Memphis at home. In Memphis' last five games they have been averaging 94.4 at 43.2% shooting and boarding at 48 a game. Minnesota
's defense has been a remedy for anybody's offense while they are on the road. At this point Memphis is playing consistent defense in the last five games as with the season average. Still I expect Minny to slightly put up better numbers because they have been playing well.

Lately Minnesota has found a little more offense and have been competitive. They are putting up more shots and getting a few more boards. I expect Memphis to get maybe 3 to 5 more shots in this one and a about 4 more boards because of Minnesota's horrible defense. And don't forget about the extra % points in shooting for Memphis. More points.

Predicted score Memphis 108 to 103

Any thoughts

?

cocknocker · 01-06-09, 01:55 AM

Alright it's time to hit one of these puppies

College Parlay of the Day

Illinois State-1.5
West virginia-3.5
Georgia+8 (1 point buy)
Penn State +2.5
LSU+6 (1 point buy)

$25.00 to make 501.69

texhooper · 01-06-09, 01:55 AM

first time poster, long time lurker. really glad to be (hopefully) contributing here.

over in the celts/bobs game looks too good, and past numbers do back it up. the actual totals between these two has been an average of 184 in their last 6 with the average line set at 189. unders are 4-2 in these games. this line is set right now at 177.5, down from 178. if you look at these two teams' off/def averages in the last five, you have roughly an average of 185 per game. so we have a startling under trend, resulting in a WAY TOO LOW TOTAL, and people are still jumping on the under. so why did it go down? with these kinds of numbers, i say who cares...take it.

the way i see it, from a purely feel perspective, both teams play out of their mind. celtics have got to get a win on this road trip after flubbing against the knicks, and the bobs know the celts are beatable and want a piece of the pie. i probably like the over more than i like a side in this one, which is rare, but going from 178 to 177.5 overnight? seems weird, but i'm willing to roll with the numbers onn this one.

i hate to add this stat into the picture, but the underdog is 11-0 in the last 11 in this matchup. i think that's worth a small play on the bobs at home, especially if this spread grows to double digits, which i fully exppect to happen (especially with movement seemingly in the defensive-minded celtics favor already taking place).

edit--ray allen will hit 3's in this game after going 0-7,000,981 against the knicks. this will be crucial to covering the over.

danrman · 01-06-09, 02:01 AM

early look

houston-philly-i like the houston pick.. they play boston next and will want to play well going into that game

boston-char-as far as the side i would wait 1 more game before i played the c's cause they have houston and then cleve coming up.. this is similar to the jazz situation last night when i was saying to lay off them cause they had new orleans and then detroit coming up.. i do however like the over in this game

minn-memphis-i do like memphis in the revenge spot and they will want this one before they head out to that highway

no-lal-diggin the new orleans angle.. this is a first of a back to back as they play utah next.. they know both games will be tough so they will put out max effort vs. the lakes plus of course revenge and respect.. i like the 1st half to go over and maybe the second half to go under.. especially the 1st half over as both teams will play customer ball saving themselves for the real half

wash-or-orlando has a home at home w/ atlanta coming up so wash may be worth a small play

in the fball game i like ball st.. this is there 1st bowl game ever and tulsa is overated

my personal plays went to 2-1 as notre dame got the cover vs. gtown as i listed in yesterdays thread.. these plays usually different than other plays in this thread will show up in the thread between 5:30 and 6pm central time if i have one... thats my early look and ck im sorry i couldnt come up w/ a new over for your over theme... maybe the sac-chi game im not really sure

alittlemoresound · 01-06-09, 02:06 AM

What up CK.

I know your calling on the hornets but im the over way on the game. I believe that PAUL G is going to make the difference on these guys. The lakers have more big action and paint points in their games. The hornets shoot 3s and lay it up game after game. They are good as their record proves, but they can't hang out with the lakers in the 4th Q this time around. I got the lakers at -8 right now.
But thats just 2 good minds thinking a bit different.

TODAY YOU LIKE OVERS. i took an over in the 4 man t yesterday. and lost. denver scored 135 points!

THE LAKERS over 196 seems like a good pick.

the lakers have only scored 100 points last game and score 130 few games back. So they are due for a big night. The Jazz game was pretty good up by 20 and almost losing it. but the strong 4th Q. Thats what the lakers have going for them. So i think the same here. Hornets keep it close at half time. Lakers pull in the 4th to score points for the cover.

Razz_Donkey · 01-06-09, 02:06 AM

Over Minnesota @ Memphis

You beat me to it Barber, I completely agree with your line of reasoning here... Minnesota has been scoring a lot recently. Not only that but they score more and give up more points on the road as compared to their season average. Memphis isn't normally a high scoring team, but in certain situations they seem to take it up a notch. Memphis put up over 100 points against poor defensive teams at home against the Thunder, Bulls, Pacers, etc. The competition between these teams is fairly intense, I think some of their players are out to prove their worth ever since the trade with these two clubs. I agree that we could see 100+ points for each team.

ClockCleaner · 01-06-09, 02:08 AM

Like the over in Mem/Min. These 2 teams generally have high scoring games against each other. Min last 5 has has an avg. of 208.4 and Mem last 5 is 192.

cnleaf · 01-06-09, 02:42 AM

DAL OVER

jamesrg · 01-06-09, 02:45 AM

Gotta go with the Celts man

A wounded animal is the most dangerous one

hunt3rtheone · 01-06-09, 02:58 AM

Hello, about Boston over today... Boston averaged 90.8 points over their last five games away from home.
Last match scored 88 points only.
They've won four straight games in Charlotte, 89-84 win on Nov. 29 but important is that three of the four games have been decided by single digits.
At home still under, lost 95-83 at home to the Bobcats last Jan. 9.
Bobcats has ups and downs in overs..why i say that ..because last match Milwaukee vs Charlotte, Bobcatsc won and scored 102 points and before this game on 2 january Charlotte Milwaukee 75-103 , they scored only 75 points and so on.. they scored one match high one match low .

All that and considering the tradition this game is a NOT PLAY because it could go eythe way ! if you play this over make sure that u trust boston to score 100 because if Boston will score under 100 this match could go easy under !

Best regards,
Hunt3r

vassman86 · 01-06-09, 03:01 AM

Celtics-Bobcats Over 177.5
Someone mentioned it earlier, but the total for this game opened at 179, and it's sitting at 177.5 right now. Boston has been a head-scratcher lately, managing to lose to the Knicks and the Warriors, and going 2-5 SU in their past seven, after their huge win-streak was snapped.

Celtics' past six games:
5 of 6 have gone under
average total has been 198
with actual game scores averaging 181.6

Bobcats past six games:
4 of 6 have gone under
average total has been 189.6
with actual game scores averaging 184

Past five games played between Celts-Bobcats
3 of 5 have gone under.
Average total of 187.2
Actual game scores 185.8
Half-time scores:
Boston 45 @ Charlotte 43, 88 pts
Boston 64 @ Charlotte 50, 114 pts
Charlotte 46 @ Boston 61, 107 pts
Charlotte 45 @ Boston 41, 86 pts
Boston 48 @ Charlotte 53, 101 pts
With such a low total for today's game, I'd consider a first half over as well.

I also like Charlotte catching 9.5 points at home. They tend to play the Celtics well, and although the Celtics are 4-1 SU in the past five meetings with Charlotte, Boston has only managed to cover a spread of 10 (or more) once; last season they had a blow out win in Charlotte 101-78. Other than that, Charlotte has some how managed to keep the games close.

isiah121 · 01-06-09, 03:02 AM

CK, what do you think of Grizzlies -3.5? Are you feeling this game man?

Also, I understand you're going heavy on Houston, but don't you think it's time for them to lose 3 times in a row for the 1st time this season? For the record, 76ers beat Rockets twice in both of their meetings last season.

ClockCleaner · 01-06-09, 03:02 AM

Never trust the Bobcats to get you an over. Especially up against a good defensive team like the Celtics.

hunt3rtheone · 01-06-09, 03:13 AM

I agree with cnleaf CLipers vs Dallas over 182,5 points !
Sun, Nov 09 Dallas L.A. Clippers 92-103
Tue, Dec 02 L.A. Clippers Dallas 98-100
Sun, Dec 28 Dallas L.A. Clippers 98-76

Clippers has a over of 93,5 and Dallas 99,3 !

Take the over !

Saluki09 · 01-06-09, 03:33 AM

I also like the Over in the Twolves-Grizz game. Another thing you gotta look at is these two teams are evenly matched which gives a chance for OT. It's basically a lock once the game goes into OT...

NBA Hero · 01-06-09, 03:36 AM

memphis lost three of four against twolves.

more leadership is needed to make memp a formidable team esp at the 4th quarter

therber2 · 01-06-09, 03:40 AM

Originally posted by jamesrg

Gotta go with the Celts man

A wounded animal is the most dangerous one

Well said!

Seeing as how I don't completely trust the Celts I am going to go small on the dog pts for the BOBs.

I think it could be a tight game. Everyone wants a piece of the big dogs now, and the law of averages is in BOSTONs favor. This game will definately be:

BOS/CHAR over 177.5 !!!!

easy. skrew the #'s it just seems like common sense to me. When it comes to the stock market and gambling, I have mostly been successful with intuition against numbers. For me, intuition wins; and in this case it looks like we have a few numbers on out side too!

. I could go on and on about the intuition thing meaning more than the numbers; I have made thousands trusting it.

GL!

By the way CK the Illinois line moved a full pt in their favor (CBB-parlay). I'm going to do that parlay plus a small equal to win for each one in the parlay. Wish me luck, my friend.

ManBearPig · 01-06-09, 04:07 AM

Just did some quick number crunching and in Mem/Minny

Average total last 5: 204
Average spread: 206
Current Line: 194

Memphis as a favorite this year at home: 8-0 in favor of the OVER. This game screams over which means it will go under...at least thats the pattern with me. Food for thought.

africanroller · 01-06-09, 05:27 AM

CK, I see your an NHL bigot haha. I keep giving you $$$$$ everyday but the CK mafia chooses not to ride along. Its ok I will get ya sooner or later.

Also to the couple guys who keep betting the Penguins can you please just send me your money instead of the books. I have told you over and over do not bet them as the team is in disaray but you keep seeing value. The books give you value because the team is very bad right now with absolutely no goaltending at all. Do not bet them until they get back to winning.

Indeed, I see you took the Edmonton pick so get your money. I placed that bet and went to bed with no stress

Ill get you Mafia boys on the ice sooner or later and not just bigmoney betting the Bruins. Bigmoney should have known not to bet the Bruins against Buffalo on Saturday. I dont care how hot they are the boys from Buffalo have had their number for 20 years

NBA Hero · 01-06-09, 06:34 AM

dexter,

you dont see a ff up good performance of NY against the lowly OKL. with a low plus on OKL, they will not cover this time.

knicks play the same regardless where the court is located.
how abt memp, bos and ORL?

havent heard from wangichu, the early post on cks thread

jalein · 01-06-09, 06:45 AM

Originally posted by africanroller

CK, I see your an NHL bigot haha. I keep giving you $$$$$ everyday but the CK mafia chooses not to ride along. Its ok I will get ya sooner or later.

Also to the couple guys who keep betting the Penguins can you please just send me your money instead of the books. I have told you over and over do not bet them as the team is in disaray but you keep seeing value. The books give you value because the team is very bad right now with absolutely no goaltending at all. Do not bet them until they get back to winning.

Indeed, I see you took the Edmonton pick so get your money. I placed that bet and went to bed with no stress

Ill get you Mafia boys on the ice sooner or later and not just bigmoney betting the Bruins. Bigmoney should have known not to bet the Bruins against Buffalo on Saturday. I dont care how hot they are the boys from Buffalo have had their number for 20 years

Where do you post your hockey picks? You make money with NHL I see. I would like to make some piggy back loot with you!

showtime2000 · 01-06-09, 07:22 AM

CK, if you don't mind i have a few NHL leans for tonight's action i'd like to post. Being doing some research and looking at them long and hard. Africanroller please come in at anytime, your record speaks for itself and i value your expertise.

PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON
-Phil has been on a 6 game road trip with this being their last game(6). They spent most of the holidays away from home and you can see it adding up losing 2-1 to LA on saturday in overtime and the night before playing another overtime game. The last time PHIL an Wash played Phil game them a thumping 7-1. This seems like a perfect situation for a WASH win and thumping of their own to give back to PHIL. Last game of a 6 game road trip, revenge factor in washington's favor(Wash 10-1 revenging a loss this season), Washington's great home record(17-1-1), washington has been averaging 4 goals scored and 2 against the last 5 games, tired bunch in PHIL players.
WASHINGTON ML and PL

I'll have some more leans later on tonight, but looking at the following,
BOSTON ML & PL(as per BigMoney. This is an out of conference game and although Minnesota has faired well in this siutation,9-2 on the season, they have had a tough schedule the last 5 games, playing COlorado, detroit, san jose, calgary, chicago and now add Boston. On the flip side Boston is 7-2 on the season on out of conference games)
NASHVILLE ML and UNDER (under has hit 6-1 in the last 7 head to head and 4-1 last 5 in Nashville. as well liking Nashville ML, Colorado has gone in a scoring slump last 3 games scoring a total of 2 goals. Same can be said about NAshville but there's a slight edge to the home team. Nashville blew it against Calgary the other night winning 2-1 with minutes to go and losing the game, not sitting well with them. AS to the fac NAshville is on a 4 game losing streak playing a team on a 3 game losing streak. Take the home favorite in a situation like this and it's hit 11-2 on the year)
PITTSBURGH ML (same situation play as above but to hard to pull the trigger on them, -230? crazy)

walbjj · 01-06-09, 07:39 AM

roller, u havent posted anything in teh nhl forums, im waiting on a response to showtimes research

Dexter · 01-06-09, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by NBA Hero

dexter,

you dont see a ff up good performance of NY against the lowly OKL. with a low plus on OKL, they will not cover this time.

knicks play the same regardless where the court is located.
how abt memp, bos and ORL?

havent heard from wangichu, the early post on cks thread

they might be lowly su, but vs the spread they are 20-13 this year - and i full expect them to be getting 3-4 pts by tipoff. they've covered 7 of 8 including a su win as a 2 pt home dog the other night. the knicks as a favorite i could never play (3-5 ats this year).

Dexter · 01-06-09, 08:21 AM

by the way, anyone who is interested in the bowl game tonight should be aware of the weather forecast...

National and Local Weather Radar, Daily Forecast, Hurricane and information from The Weather Channel and weather.com

http://www.weather.com/outlook/health/achesandpains/hourbyhour/graph/USAL0371?begHour=12&begDay=6&from=hrly_graph

The Weather Channel and weather.com provide a national and local weather forecast for cities, as well as weather radar, report and hurricane coverage

if someone does live near the stadium, a weather report would be much appreciated

africanroller · 01-06-09, 09:03 AM

I havnt posted because my book doesnt put up NHL until late morning.

As far as Showtimes post I have already said that I will not bet the Penguins until they turn the team around. They are not playing as a unit right now and I am not wasting my time with them.

I also am not betting The Bruins or the Sharks right now. The lines are super inflated and I honestly look for value.

For me tonight I am looking more at Buffalo, NJ and Anaheim but I havnt had the time to cap these games yet. When I get the time it will all be up on the Hockey thread.

Also just so everyone knows I am a Missionary in Africa so for you guys on the West Coast I am 10 hours ahead of you. I dont wager for a job but I do it for fun. My bank roll came from my dominance at Fantasy sports.

I run many Fantasy Football leagues and Fantasy Baseball leagues with 90% payouts if anyone is interested. The 10% goes to the site fees as I use myfantasyleague.com for Football. Again my fantasy leagues are not for profit as I play in many of them myself.

If anyone has an interest in these please let me know. The leagues are $50,$75 and $100 and I have my own message boards for these leagues.

I will be starting a Baseball Dynasty league this year with a 40 man roster with 25 big leaguers and 15 minor leaguers. My leagues are extensive and more like the Bigs then anything you will find out there. My Baseball leagues are run on Yahoo but its the expanded pay options with real time scoring and not the basic free option. I already have half this league full at $75.00 a team. Its still up in the air if it will be 12,14 or 16 teams.

Also because I know the question always comes up payments are secure through paypal and the payouts come the day after the season ends. I dont think you can find anything better then that