Leans for Tuesday 1/6/09 "Over Day"

[SamsNCharge99]

CK, DO WORK TONIGHT. You know as everyone probably knows, I do not bet Over/Under's, so I won't be helping you tonight. The one play I do have in mind for you is New York Knicks. I have a good write up about the game in my thread. I don't talk about stats in my write-ups, basically just talk about the last few games. I watch every Knicks game and know what I'm talking about when talking about that team.

They should be able to dominate the weak OK City Team. As long as they hit their 3's, Knicks win by 10+. Even if they have a problem hitting their jumpers, I still see Knicks winning by 2-6. Either way, unless OK City shoots over 60% for the game, I see now way this team wins tonight.

Now, I don't look at stats like teams Against The Spread and stuff like that, but I do know that OK City have been covering as of late......but, the spreads they have been covering have been usually double digits or at least 8+. Now, they are only 2 point dogs and most likely will go up to 4 by game time. I got them at 2 points, so basically it's like the Knicks need to win which will happen.

Good Luck

[Pensinger1]

I don't know why anybody isn't on the Memphis game tomorow. I think that Minnesota is due to a big loss at Memphis, especially after 2 surprising wins in a row. Memphis will also wanna revenge that OT loss few days ago in Minnesota. They also are comming after a big win over Dallas. Momentum is just perfect!
This play will be my game of the day
Memphis(-3) BIG

I was looking at this match-up as well. At first glance, I really like Memphis -4, especially with the revenge angle working in their favor. Can Minny really put a streak of 3 wins together? I think not. But can they keep it close against a team that has been struggling to close out the 4th quarter? Maybe.

Minnesota is 4-1 ats in their last 5 road games.

Memphis is 1-3 ats (AND SU) as a home fav. this year giving 4 or more points.

I might end up having to stay away from this one.

[joanapoker]

aluki09 and andgdaujat

I like that Boston/Charlotte over, and so does the Missus. I just wasn't going to list her play until much later onin the day. But the reseach that you two have done yeilds a very potent play. it's going to be hard for the rest of the board to top that one. Situationally, this is one that looks perfect to the eye like a 5 point diamond.

To all playing the OVER at Charlotte:

In the last 10 games they are 3-7(O-U). Also Boston is 5-11 O-U in the road and the Bobcats are 8-12 at home!

The line so low is a trap from the linemaker (the same happen yesterday with Indiana getting more points; but no one listed to me) it's a number nice to the eye....but I'm off that Total.

[hunt3rtheone]

i have a strange feeling about that game aas well but is pretty low 177,5 and if Boston will be on fire after the last game loss maybe this will go over .. the line is set that low because head to head when those 2 teams plays the game turned out to be under but the line is simply to low to not take the over here !

I think Boston will score 100 and the game will be tight ! for the brave ones this is a opportunity to take over 190 or so.. incredibile odds

[hunt3rtheone]

i see that the over has rised at 178,5 ..i got the over couple of hours by 177,5 ..and the handicapp is now only -8,5 !

[MrSink]

why you talking about this ****ing game cha -bos. It's really hard to get a nice under / over pick in this game so just don't play this game tonight. Let's see nice game Oklahoma/New York. I'm sure they will shoot over 218 points.

[hunt3rtheone]

in yur dreams maybe new york will score..but OKC NOT , u are talking about my crappy boston bobcats but how about u? i came up with some analis for this game but how about u ? why u take this game over?

[joanapoker]

Two posters have already said it all:

MIN/MEM OVER 194 (heavy)

The Total in the past 5 games between this two teams have average 204ppg and an amazing 213 in the past 3!! Add to that, MIN is on a high score trend.....and are both 18-11 to the OVER when playing teams with a losing record!!

Already locked it!

[Dexter]

CK - rockets open up as a 3 pt favorite - still like them *heavy*?

[Netprofit]

I think a good percentage play is:

Boston -points First Half

Boston will cover first half and in the second half may be leading by 20 which is making over under unpredictable. If no blowout then they may slow down too early in the last 3 minutes and end up not covering. So playing first half is the way to go in my opinion.

[joanapoker]

When the line opens I'm also gonna play SAC+5 1st Half

The Kings keep it close at Halftime, even yesterday was the same (up by 12), they always lose gas on second half!

[Killer Chihuahua]

Laying the chalk with the Lakers -7.5

Lakers to win their 16 straight game at home when they face the Hornets tonight at the Staples Center. Los Angeles has beaten New Orleans in ten of their last 13 meetings in Los Angeles and should easily cover the 7½ spread. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home. The Hornets are 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games, 1-3-1 ATS on the road.

[Killer Chihuahua]

Boston vs Bobcats Over

Key Trends: Over is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 vs. Eastern Conference. Over is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 games following a SU Win.

[cocknocker]

Dexter,

Yes, I just took them heavy-2. As soon as I made my wager, the line went up to 3.5. I suspect that one of the bums are coming back

[africanroller]

NHL Time

Showtimes games:

Washington -155/Philly Philly has won 5 out of last 7 and last time out beat Wash 7-1.

Pitt -230/ Atlanta I will agree that Pitt has Atlantas number but -230 for a team that is not playing well?

Nashville -145/ Colorado Honestly I think this is a 50/50 game. I see both teams with the ability to win even with the Predators playing well at home. Colorado has been playing some good games as of late.

Boston -215/Minn I just want to leave you with two stats Minn 7-1 in last 8, 4-0 in last 4 in Boston


Now my plays

New Jersey -105/ Carolina New Jersey as an underdog and odds of -105. I am all over it. NJ 6-2 last 8 VS Carolina.

Chicago -125/ Phoenix DANGEROUS game but I like the boys from Chi-town. Chicago is 7-1 in last 8 VS Phoenix and 3-0 this year with scores 4-1,3-2(so) and last time out 7-1.

Anaheim -155/ Kings Kings 2-8 last 10 VS Anaheim, 0-5 last 5 in Anaheim

[cocknocker]

It's cool to play the Rockets at 3.5 though, as even at 2, they still would have to win by 4 in order to cash the ticket

[Killer Chihuahua]

T-mac is playing tonight.....I'm from Houston and he is getting raped by the houston media and his coach (if you can read between the lines) for his last effortless performance. He has sleepwalked through the last few games and his body language tells it all, he is not happy nor healthy. I think he knows he has lost a step but will come out on fire in the first half to quiet all the talks and them go back into his shell in the second half. I like Houston to win in a low scoring game but will play the first half heavy with a little something something on the game

[Dexter]

It's cool to play the Rockets at 3.5 though, as even at 2, they still would have to win by 4 in order to cash the ticket

???? how does winning by 3 not cash the ticket at -2?

[Killer Chihuahua]

???? how does winning by 3 not cash the ticket at -2?

It does but thats CK talk for key numbers!!

[Dexter]

ive been waiting a frickin month to play this total heavy over tonight - gusty winds, rain etc....cant play the over in those conditions. no play on that total for me.

[cocknocker]

Dexter,

We've already had this talk. But to humor you I will explain it again. The key numbers are the even numbers. So even with a line of 2,the math is that Houston must win by 4 in order to cash the ticket. If the line was 1.5, then a 2 point win would cash the ticket. What you need to understand is that a hook or a half point is the same as 2 points. So with me sitting on 2, a 2 point win by Houston is nothing more than a push. you should make ALL basketball wagers by either getting on top of a key number or getting below a key number or getting on a key number. Getting below the nearest key number is beneficial if you have the favorite, getting on top of the nearest key number is beneficial if you have the underdog. Getting back onto the nerest key number is beneficial in games where you are taking a favorite with a hook attached or an odd number, whih is the case in this particular game. I simply got back onto the nearest key number (2) by buying a point. Since the line has gone up to 3.5, it is impossible to get back onto the nearest key number without having to buy a point and a half. You're better off just taking the game at 3.5 and knowing that essentially the Rockets need to win by 4 to cash both of our tickets anyway.

[Dexter]

got it...

[BebeRebozo]

Hello to everybody!

My picks for today are:

NBA

Boston Celtics | Charlotte Bobcats over 177,5

New Orleans Hornets | Los Angeles Lakers over 196


NHL

Washington Capitals 1,65

Boston Bruins 1,45

Chicago Blackhawks 1,77

(overtime & penalty included)


Excuse me, I don't know how to write the NHL bets for winning correctly, so I just wrote down the odds.

Have good sport!

[Killer Chihuahua]

Dexter,
It is the same thing as in football where if you got a 7.5 you would need 9 to win.....key numbers brother!!!

[joanapoker]

The total is coming down at charlotte! This low line is a trap!!

I'll stay away from this game! So far I've played:

MIN/MEM OVER 194 (Heavy)
SAC +5 1st Half
NYK -1 st Half (half size bet)
MEM -2 st Half (half size bet)

gl all

[Morpheus]

Something from Eurocup basketball for you mates.

ASK Riga - Roanne Roanne -3,5 ( middle )

Riga is in bad financial position. Head coach and most of the key players left the team. They have to play with local players only.

[Mr Handicapable]

Ball State tonite ML!! QB Johnson for Tulsa had 5 picks in his last game...best receiver Marion blew out his knee in that game...they're over 50 ppg at home but only 32 ppg/41 allowed in their last 4 road games. I know the MAC isn't strong but Phil Steele/Northcoast Sports has both these teams strength of schedule in the bottom 5 in Div. 1!
BS QB Nate Davis will play on Sundays and will eat up Tulsa (only 8 picks w/32 TDs allowed)! Tulsa also has kicking problems...no FGs beyond 37 yds! Bottom line...Tulsa's fireworks don't follow them on the road and BS is getting value w/the loss to Buffalo! The talk all week in Muncie was the attempt to matchup BS w/Boise and naturally the kids overlooked Buffalo! They're be fired up for new coach Parrish who's out to win the FIRST bowl game in school history! These are my 2 fav conferences to handicap and I've seen both these teams a ton this year!!

BTW...Pacers now 10-1 Over vs the West...22-11 Over overall! Worst post defense I've EVER seen in the NBA!

[pubster77]

Dexter,

We've already had this talk. But to humor you I will explain it again. The key numbers are the even numbers. So even with a line of 2,the math is that Houston must win by 4 in order to cash the ticket. If the line was 1.5, then a 2 point win would cash the ticket. What you need to understand is that a hook or a half point is the same as 2 points. So with me sitting on 2, a 2 point win by Houston is nothing more than a push. you should make ALL basketball wagers by either getting on top of a key number or getting below a key number or getting on a key number. Getting below the nearest key number is beneficial if you have the favorite, getting on top of the nearest key number is beneficial if you have the underdog. Getting back onto the nerest key number is beneficial in games where you are taking a favorite with a hook attached or an odd number, whih is the case in this particular game. I simply got back onto the nearest key number (2) by buying a point. Since the line has gone up to 3.5, it is impossible to get back onto the nearest key number without having to buy a point and a half. You're better off just taking the game at 3.5 and knowing that essentially the Rockets need to win by 4 to cash both of our tickets anyway.

But why are even numbers key numbers? The number of games that end with 3 or 5 point spreads is roughly the same as those that end with 2 or 4 point spreads.

[ragiche]

I haven't done any research cause i'm not feeling very well.It was a good day yesterday 3-1,not bad.So this is my play and already locked:

Hou -3.5 (ck)playing heavy

Nyk -2 (samsncharge)playing heavy

Mim/Mem over 194 (joana)also playing heavy

Dal -12.5 (my pick) with a banged up clipps and undermaned.Plus with the humiliation the mavs got from the grizzlies.Dal will be scorching hot in every cylinders from start to finish.(heavy)

I also play this 4 games in a parlay for $20.Need to rest this body now.And GL to all of you!

I also play the nhl picks of africanroller :NJD,ANA,CHI(all heavy).Nice picks africanroller keep this up.

[Dfjay9]

Tulsa tonight boys. Those of you who take the time to read my posts know that I'm mediocre in basketball (50% or so but with a profit -- flat betting is for fools) but I'm hot in CFB. Sure I'm new and I've only been around since hte start of bowl season, but who cares?

So you guys want numbers from me right?
Tulsa is putting up 550 ypg which is 100 more than Ball St and giving up 50 more than Ball state on defense.
In the past 3 years Tulsa is 1-1 both ATS and SU in bowl games and Ball St is 0-1 in both fields. Most of Tulsa's team has been here before. Experience my friends. Another note, this game opened with Ball St being a -2.5 favorite. They're not a 3 point dog. Tread lightly my friends but I think Tulsa wins this one, albeit a close one. I wouldn't bet the bank on this one like I advised to do with the last few. Tough matchup really. Should be a good game. Although by the Sagarin rankings, BSU played a tougher schedule. I disagree. Tulsa blew out some good teams such as Rice (63-28) The tulsa loss to Houston is skewed by 5 fumbles also. Tulsa played an SEC team tough Ball state didnt. Ball state's signature win is Navy at home in a close one. Ball state also got handled in their championship game. The other team wanted it more which is what this one will coem down to. Who wans it more boys?

GL I'm not even sure if I'm betting this one... I might take a day off today.

[cocknocker]

pubster77,

You can't be serious right? We're not talking about how a game ends. We're talking about how the lines are set, homes. There are key numbers in football and basketball. Just accept it to be true. I already did about 10 years ago.

[Mr Handicapable]

I'm starting to really like Lakers/Hornets Over 196 (wish I had 195.5..could buy it down I guess?)
The Lake Show is 12-6 Over at home...12-3 Over w/atleast 3 game winning streak! 211 and 222 pts the last 2 times NO came to town! They totaled 187 in NO last month but Stojakovic didn't play! Kobe shot under 40% in NO but did take it to the rim hard w/a season high 15 FTs! He has a score to settle w/Posey from the Finals last year...look for another aggressive game from Kobe and some Peja 3s as they crack 200 tonite!!

[Turkish]

ck
houston -3.5 phili +3.5 ..is houston still play ( large)?

[showtime2000]

CK, any thoughts on the CHAR/BOSTOn game. Line opened up at -9.5 and moved down to -9 with all the conseus on Boston? Boston is 2-11 ats head to head and the dog is a perfect 11-0ats in this series. Now i know that this is a different Boston team than in the past but are these not strong trends to consider? I think more research is needed.
Thoughts CK?

[cocknocker]

showtime2000

I can't mess with the Celtics right now. They are underperforming miserably. I just can't take them against the Bobcats laying that number. The Bobcats are for real, but at the same time, you don't know what Celtics team is gonna show up. If the good Celtics show up, then it could be a blowout. If the bad one shows up this game could go under or over or they could lose straight up, or the lights may cut out halfway thtrough the game, etc...

Look here, if i can't take them, I won't play against them. it's just that simple.