Leans for Monday 12/29/08

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for Monday 12/29/08
    Well now, I had a ball at the 49ers game yesterday, tailgating, and sitting in one of the PC Boys skybox. It was my first NFL game that I attended this year, and man did I have a good time! The Niners cashed our tickets at 2.5 ans well as the 2nd half, so we did alright on that one.

    While sitting in the box we came up with the following PC Play wired as hell!

    The Memphis Grizzlies as we all know are horrid in back end of back to back games and they come into town with a double overtime in the second game and one days rest. Kevin McHale has come down from his own luxury seats to see how horrible his team actually is. But this is a winnable game for the T-Wolves and we will take this spot to lay the hammer and take the T-Wolves to get the victory over the Grizzlies who played double overtime thriller against the Spurs taking them to the limit losing 103-106. The score alone tells you that there was maximum effort as a double overtime games rarely have such a low score. Never mind the fact that Memphis has a 4-1 ats record in games in Prince Town. They are in a bad situation to get the cover, and we are gonna take the Mighty T-Wolves to pick up their first win for McHale in front of the thirsty home crowd.

    Minnesota-1.5 (1 point buy) BIG PC Play

    I don't know why but the Nets are an up and down team. Chicago is more of the same, just a few more downs than ups. But the Nets are coming off of a grueling home and home with the Bobcats which produced an overtime win in game number 2. Despite their bad ats and straight up record in games in New Jersey, the Bulls fit a neat 49-13 ats situation in this game because of the amount of points they are receiveing, New Jersey's overall record, the number of losses they have had in a row, and New Jersey coming back home off a back to back situation wherein they also picked up an overtime win. The Bulls are trying to salvage a win out of their 4 game road trip, and they know that Orlando is coming in to meet them when they get home. The power rankings even have them as a 4 point dog, which is well under what they will be receiving by gametime especially when squares see their straight up and ats record on the road against New Jersey. Gimmie those points. New Jersey has talent, but they are not a deep team. For every Devin Harris, there's a Ben Gordon.

    Bulls+6 or more

    Washington week is on hold until the status of Caron Butler is exposed. They have a bad matchup against the Rockets, and without Butler they probably don't stand a chacne. With him they will cover a double digit spread with ease. But he must be 100%, so I am taking a pass on the first game of Washington week!

    Other notables ( Unofficial games that did not make the cutting room floor but are worth looking at with a scrupulous eye): I like the Hawks to get the job one against the Nuggets. Both teams are not bench heavy teams, and obviously the Hawks are fresher than the Nuggets.The line should be Atlanta-3 according to my rescoring model. That game will be a squeaker, and will be very tight until the end due to the lack of production by both benches.

    Utah hit double overtime against the Rockets in their last game, a road game. Philly may keep this one close despite the Jazz awesome home court advantage. If Boozer actually does play, then I may end up taking the Sixers.

    Show me what ya smokin on boys and girls. Those are my two plays.
  • The_Kid
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-09-08
    • 5049

    #2
    CK, Boozer is not expected back till sometime in January. So, if you plan on making any Jazz wagers, just know that he'll be out until at least that time. Millsap is also out another week.

    CK, I'm looking at the Detroit and Orlando game. Orlando has always been a great road team and I don't even want to consider that Detroit is 3-1 ATS at home against Orlando in their last 4 (they are a completely different Pistons teams). Detroit has won 3 in a row now and finally covered against the Bucks the other day at home but I still consider them a .500 team at best. I'm liking my chances with Orlando on the road.
    Comment
    • cocknocker
      Restricted User
      • 11-06-08
      • 8001

      #3
      The Kid

      Kind of hard to go against the Magic right now. They are too hot to handle with oven gloves. The only thing is that outside of one player (Iverson) this is the same Detroit team that has the Magic's number. Neither team has made wholesale changes, there is only one person that is different. So with that, i wouldn't want to be in your position, deciding on which side to go with on such a difficult game...If I had to paic a side, i would end up going against Spoon's rule #1. But one thing I have learned about wagering on basketball. An ats run only goes on for so long. Eventually the linemaker makes the appropriate adjustment, and he rakes back in ALL of the money the books have lost following a team on a hot ats streak. Boston is now feeling those effects. The linemaker didn't wait that long to rake back in his Laker dough. And so too is the same case for Cleveland, as the linemaker is now poishing off those who have gotten used to Cleveland blowing out oppononets. Now they HAVE to win by 15. That's totally different than being favored by 7 and winning by 15, trust me. All of those teams that the publicis in uproar over will and in some cases already come back to earth. If Orlando is favored going ino the Motor City by anything, it is too much.
      Comment
      • Dexter
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 12-24-08
        • 25829

        #4
        ncstate vs rutgers-

        the more i think about this game, rutgers is not going to have a problem scoring today. teel has been locked in lately, and the 95th ranked pass defense is not going to stop him. ncstate should be able to put up 21-28 pts themselves. the weather is 60 degress with no wind, so im now going high (hope my slow day at work doesnt come back to haunt me

        *over*
        -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        nwestern vs missouri-
        the public is all over missouri at 68%, yet the line has dropped from 14.5 to 12. mizzou has stumbled into this bowl game losing their last 2 games of the year, while nwestern has been a solid dog this year at 4-2 ats. pts should not be an issue in the dome tonight...

        *nwestern*
        *over*
        -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        magic @ pistons-no line yet with hamilton questionable. i like the magic here as they look to avenge the playoff series from last year (just as the lakers did vs boston) where the pistons knocked them out. the magic are the better team now and have been rolling lately/all year ats (11-3ats on the road) - while the pistons have been awful ats at the palace (4-10). i have my line on this game set at magic -1.5

        *magic*
        -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        sixers @ jazz-no line on this game yet with okur questionable - either way, i like sixers here. no boozer or millsap, plus the sixers have the revenge angle working on their side from a 13pt loss at home in nov. i have my line set at utah -6.5

        *sixers*
        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Comment
        • NBA Hero
          SBR MVP
          • 12-05-08
          • 1886

          #5
          uve been busy with football.

          miller might not play for minn. mchale's 2nd win tom.
          Comment
          • Dexter
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 12-24-08
            • 25829

            #6
            Carlos Boozer's third MRI is scheduled for Dec. 29

            3 sounds about right for the hawks - i came up with atl -4.
            Comment
            • cocknocker
              Restricted User
              • 11-06-08
              • 8001

              #7
              I just locked down my two plays for tomorrow, so I am as the Republican say, fully vested.

              Minnesota -1.5 (with a 1 point buy) PC Play
              Chicago+6.5 (with a 1 point buy)

              I am through with all that i will be wagering on Monday, I don't need to watch the line movement for these two plays, as they are solid as stone. But I am open to some dynamite play if a lady or gentleman comes up with something extra nice. But with the amount that I just put up on theT-Wolves, it must be VERY eye catching. So let's get to handicapping, boys and girls. We don't have any plays on Thursday, and my birthday is on January 2nd, so I will have to make those plays early on New Year's Day. The Missus has a Bay Area dinner cruise in mind, so I won't be around to go over the specifics with the Ck Mafia on Friday night, but I already have my plays for the week in mind anyway at this time. Further evidence that win/lose/draw I take my homework VERY seriously and i have the pockets of the Mafia in mind when doing my research. Shot out to Wang- Good lookin' on the Philly thing, but you interrupted some serious Jack sippin' in the skybox! You're still my lil homie though!

              I will start the threads this week, but i may not always be available forcomments. As BigMoney knows I like to have a schedule that I follow through the week. I had previously designated this as Wizzleskins Week. Since the Wizards are not up to speed this week with the unexpected injury to Caron Butler, I am switching up speeds like Bruce Lee riding a Fuji in a movie (only die hard RedMan fans know that line) and going with Indiana Week this week. Alls that I want out of them is 2 covers in the week. As stated, I always have futures in mind, and the better interests of the CK Mafia. When you research these plays in advance you will see that the trends are extremely in my favor given the situation (that team playing at the certain location). Good luck, gentlemen.

              Tuesday:
              Indiana 5-0 s/u and ats
              New York (Charlotte on back to back with overtime previous game)
              Boston 4-1 ats

              Wednesday:
              Philly 4-1 ats
              Houston 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ats Bucks will be on 2nd game of a back to back

              Friday: (obviously a light $300 apiece night)
              Washington 4-1 straight up and ats * only if Caron Butler plays
              Toronto 4-1 straight up and ats
              Indiana 4-1 straight up and ats
              Charlotte 4-1 ats
              Portland 5-0 straight up and ats
              Comment
              • nonsense48
                SBR MVP
                • 12-15-08
                • 2927

                #8
                dex, did you find that site informative?
                Comment
                • cocknocker
                  Restricted User
                  • 11-06-08
                  • 8001

                  #9
                  College Football Monday:

                  Rutgers-anything
                  Missouri-anything

                  NC State is outmatched offensively and doesn't produce much offensively if they aren't given a small field. Rutgers is on a mission, and has more consistent play from the quarterback position than the Wolfpack. I feel that Nc State may have more playmakers on defense, but they sometimes have scoring lulls. Not so with Rutgers. They can sling it with the best of them. Teel is a brand name quarterback.


                  Missouri is just a better version of Northwestern. C'mon. everyone knows the Big10 sucks in bowl games. Missouri's speed will give them fits on the offensive end, and i say that the tigers will get the 3 defensive stops needed in the game to get the cover. Northwestern's defense won't get the 3 stops that they need. They made Michigan's offense look good. Enough said.

                  I am making very light plays on both as the value is with the PC Play tomorrow. I seriously doubt that i would put up more than $150.00 apiece on these games, just taking them as fun bets.
                  Comment
                  • Dexter
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 12-24-08
                    • 25829

                    #10
                    yup, i'm going to use it exclusively for public % data - ive seen it before, but didnt navigate it properly...thx.

                    just saw the celtic score - i had them one night too early for their *angry* win...
                    Comment
                    • isiah121
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 12-04-08
                      • 313

                      #11
                      CK bro, you won't believe that crazy wager of mine last night man. I did Lakers -14.5, and Warriors +18.5 separate wagers and won both. Woo, this is what you call a dumb rookie who takes big risk!
                      Comment
                      • cocknocker
                        Restricted User
                        • 11-06-08
                        • 8001

                        #12
                        You guys haven't used squat until you use The Spread.com, and Sportsinsights.com. The Spread is extra good for seeing how the power rankings are actually put to use, and Sportsinsights.com uses 5 sportsbooks to compile consensus data, including Pinnacle, which I feel is one of the best "early" sites for tracking spreads
                        Comment
                        • cocknocker
                          Restricted User
                          • 11-06-08
                          • 8001

                          #13
                          Isaiah121,

                          All that you did is what i do as a practice. You simply faded your picks, and gave yourself a chance to win even if you lost. Now let some of the readers tell it, you did something sophomoric, but to me you simply used good money management and of course it worked out to your favor. Don't let anyone tell you what you did was wrong especially if you fill your pockets up! Don't tell everyone what you did tho...they'll tell you that you lost money doing what you did even though you have evidence that it works!
                          Comment
                          • nonsense48
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-15-08
                            • 2927

                            #14
                            good for you. i've found it very helpful. their football analysis is pretty scary as to how right and close they come 80% of the time. i just wish i'd pay attention and go their way more. on xmas eve they had notre dame beating hawaii by 22 and i didn't listen and went with hawaii. nd won by 26
                            Comment
                            • danrman
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-30-08
                              • 2696

                              #15
                              hey ck thanks much for the research.. it is greatly appreciated
                              Comment
                              • Dexter
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 12-24-08
                                • 25829

                                #16
                                Originally posted by cocknocker
                                You guys haven't used squat until you use The Spread.com, and Sportsinsights.com. The Spread is extra good for seeing how the power rankings are actually put to use, and Sportsinsights.com uses 5 sportsbooks to compile consensus data, including Pinnacle, which I feel is one of the best "early" sites for tracking spreads
                                i was using the spread.com, but cant find public % on totals.

                                sportsinsights i believe you have to pay for...
                                Comment
                                • nonsense48
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-15-08
                                  • 2927

                                  #17
                                  rutgers is gonna roll. my best bet of the week. 2 dimes
                                  Comment
                                  • danrman
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 08-30-08
                                    • 2696

                                    #18
                                    hey i use sports insights.. it helped me make a play against the cowboys today
                                    Comment
                                    • nonsense48
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-15-08
                                      • 2927

                                      #19
                                      "
                                      Comment
                                      • danrman
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 08-30-08
                                        • 2696

                                        #20
                                        isiah you kinda middled that laker-gs game.. i did the same w/ the la. tech-n.ill football game tonight and won.. nice win you win both sides
                                        Comment
                                        • infamousdx
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 10-01-08
                                          • 362

                                          #21
                                          i'm almost always fading the nets at home... as i am sitting there every game to witness the debachle.
                                          Comment
                                          • Dfjay9
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-04-08
                                            • 1576

                                            #22
                                            So I'm wondering CK, your analysis of the Minny game leaves much to be desired. For instance,

                                            Why does the 4-1 ATS not matter here?
                                            Minns crowd hasn't pumped anyone up until this time, what makes you think it will happen now?
                                            Comment
                                            • nonsense48
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-15-08
                                              • 2927

                                              #23
                                              my leans for monday are rutgers-7 and under 56 gonna try a ck play with minn-1' orl-1' pho-8' utah line dependent hou line dependent need to study more but leaning toward nwestern+12' whichever way you lean however you wager my friends, GOOD LUCK
                                              Comment
                                              • cocknocker
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 11-06-08
                                                • 8001

                                                #24
                                                Dfjay9,

                                                I guess that you're gonna have to go against the grain and play Memphis if it doesn't make sense to you. All that i know is the PC's are 11-3 ats since I joined SBR. The truth is that Memphis is in a bad spot to get the cover. You can either wager on the other side or watch how it turns out. If my analysis leaves much to be desired, you may want to fade that pick if you don't like the sound of it, right?

                                                nonsense48 and Dexter,

                                                VegasInsider is inferior to Sportsinsights as it only lists the consensus of ONE book, and not FIVE which is the advantage of Sportsinsights. It's only $50 or so a month. What's that for what we out up on our wagers? The only thing that VegasInsider is good for is for finding out when the wiseguy play was made and how it affected the line at LVSC and the Golden Nugget
                                                Comment
                                                • Dfjay9
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-04-08
                                                  • 1576

                                                  #25
                                                  No need to rub the sand in your pants. I just wanted a little more information. But if you're going on instinct then it's your choice. You make the write ups and I do read them daily, I agree with most of them. I'm confused on this one.

                                                  Edit: Also, its tough wagering on the bottom few teams in any sport may it be fb bball or baseball which is another reason I'm iffy on this one.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Wilforth
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 05-10-08
                                                    • 16309

                                                    #26
                                                    Bulls ML will be worth a try on Monday.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • nonsense48
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-15-08
                                                      • 2927

                                                      #27
                                                      sportsinsights likes ncst +7 to beat rutgers vegasinsider likes rutgers to cover i like rutgers to cover 7. we shall soon see
                                                      Comment
                                                      • isiah121
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 12-04-08
                                                        • 313

                                                        #28
                                                        CK bro, that's cool, I'm really learning about money management then. I have a bankroll of $500 for today's plays. Can you advice me how much should I put on the Timberwolves' PC play? Thanks bro.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • cocknocker
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 11-06-08
                                                          • 8001

                                                          #29
                                                          Dfjay9,

                                                          The PC's don't go off of instincts. Minnesota is 49-13 in this situation. The search engine that one of my PC crew uses costs over 5 grand per year to use, but it's well worth it. It's a trde secret, and I can't divulge the name of it, but i can tell you that only heavyweights like Marc Lawrence and Wayne Allen Root for example use it's services. The average joe wouldn't see the value in purchasing such a product. We put no less than 3k up per PC wager. Everyone doesn't know what we know. And the numbers fit for this game, regardless of Minnesota's record.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • innovator
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 11-28-08
                                                            • 238

                                                            #30
                                                            i'm going to fade every CK play today.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • nonsense48
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-15-08
                                                              • 2927

                                                              #31
                                                              ck, don't u feel that consensus from too many books can sometimes get a bit confusing? i followed root a few yrs back and was far from impressed with his record in football and basketball
                                                              Comment
                                                              • cocknocker
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 11-06-08
                                                                • 8001

                                                                #32
                                                                Isaiah121,

                                                                If it's just for todays play and not your entire bankroll, I would put up $300.00. If the $500.00 is you entire bankroll I wouldn't suggest putting up more than $100.00. Might as well step out on the good ones.

                                                                nonsense48,

                                                                the spread has Rutgers winning by 12 due to the power rankings.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Spoon
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 11-21-08
                                                                  • 592

                                                                  #33
                                                                  What's up fellas...I've been extremely busy, but wanted to add a post that I posted in the NCAA Football thread.

                                                                  Originally I was leaning Rutgers, but I'm starting to back peddle a little after looking at this matchup closer. I would like to parlay this game too, but that 56 is a tough number. However, I'm leaning the under due to Rutgers' defense - if they show up for an ACC matchup.

                                                                  POSTED IN THE NCAA THREAD
                                                                  This game is not easy to gauge on the scoring front either. Although I’m liking Rutgers in this spot (-6.5), it's hard to ignore the temptation of taking NC State at +7 or more. Reason being, out of Rutgers' last 4 games they did do some damage in the scoring department, however, 3 of those opponents are really weak teams (Army, Louisville, and Syracuse) and USF turned out to be nothing special as we seen heading into October. On the other side, NC State beat two Top 25 teams (Wake and UNC) in their last 3 games. Two other important factors that should be mentioned. First, the ACC (I’m being unbiased here even though I went to FSU) is a much stronger conference than the Big East so the strength of schedule is on NC States’ side. Second, it does not make matters any easier that O'Brien is 7-1 in bowl games. The only common opponents between these two schools are USF and UNC. On could make an argument that Rutgers crushed USF (49-16) and NC State got crushed by USF (41-10), however, it’s a wash because Rutgers got crushed by UNC (44-12) while NC State crushed UNC (41-10). Need to think this one through, but it feels like I’m making an argument to take NC State although I was heavily leaning Rutgers. We’ll see.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • nonsense48
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-15-08
                                                                    • 2927

                                                                    #34
                                                                    i faded him quite often and did very well for myself
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • cocknocker
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                                      • 8001

                                                                      #35
                                                                      innovator & nonsense48 ,

                                                                      That's smart thinking. Why do you think I do the same thing as you do? Hell, I fade myself each and every single play I make, lol! Good luck to you, and God bless you. You are qualified to do so.
                                                                      Comment
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