Leans for Monday 12/29/08

[nonsense48]

i think rutgers has the triple threat in receivers and rushing

[innovator]

innovator & nonsense48 ,

That's smart thinking. Why do you think I do the same thing as you do? Hell, I fade myself each and every single play I make, lol! Good luck to you, and God bless you. You are qualified to do so.

just messin' man...i would just love it if you got back to your 100% nights again.

[cocknocker]

nonsense48,

No I like to see the play activity from 5 books. Sportsinsights breaks it down to an overall percentage for you, and that is very helpful when trying to figure out who is playing what actually, although i don't place too much stock in consensus numbers. As yo can see i make my plays well before the consensus comes out. Lately though I have seen teams come out with late injury updates, trades, etc. Those things can't be helped, but since i am fading myself under seperate cover on another book, it all seems to work out anyway. BigMoney is a consensus watcher. However, if i waited for the consensus reading, then I would have to make my threads at 4:00pm pst the same day of the games, and no one would like that. It wouldn't give everyone time to make capping talk on the thread, which is what I encourage. If someone doesn't like my offerings, there should be at least 30 or so more CK Mafia types to tail.

[cocknocker]

innovator,

the best example is to take only my heavy plays. The PC's only play a game that i go heavy on, and leave the rest alone. I always indicate when I am going heavy, and those plays always bring home the bacon. I am no different than a picks service. You have your 2 unit plays and you have your 20 unit plays. it's just that simple. I always make a point to indicate what play I am going heavy on, so look out for those only.

[nonsense48]

time for me to rest my head as it's an early rise for me. good nite all and good luck

[isiah121]

Ck seems like a lot of bettors are on Memphis tonight. Do you think this would drive the line down?

Also, I don't like to make an early bet and later find out that one of Minnesota's starter will miss a game. You know, I was sweating after finding out Butler would be missing the Wizard's game against the Thunders, which was also a PC play.

[Spoon]

i think rutgers has the triple threat in receivers and rushing

That's a fair statement, however, you can't just look at one side of the equation. For example, their "triple threat in receivers and rushing," as you say might be awesome against the 2-7 Syracuse team, 3-7 Army team, and the 5-6 Louisville team they played, but what will transpire when they face an ACC opponent like NC State who is use to tough schedules and is a lot tougher than almost, if not the toughest competition, they faced this season.

Just something to think about.

[danrman]

i like the acc over big east.. i like nc st.'s qb.. he's a playmaker.. i like the dog(nc st. in the early game) and the fav. late missouri in case anyone cares.. i think the wrong team is favored in the rut-nc st. game

[innovator]

thanks CK

[cocknocker]

isiah121,

That's what is going to make this play so golden (public perception) I liked the T-Wolves at -1.5, which is where i took them. I don't like to wait on the line movement all the time, because what if the wiseguy money comes in and despite the public being all over the Grizzlies and the line goes up to Minny-3 or 3.5? Well we (speaking of the PC's and myself) played it right away after getting the information to lock in as a basic "just win" spread. I wouldn't recommend taking this game if it gets to Minnesota-4.5, which means that they would basically have to win by 6. 6 in our world is basically 10. Gotta remember that these are the T-Wolves after all, and they will make it interesting to say the least. We already knew the public would be on the Grizzlies when we made our wagers.

[danrman]

so far 68% are on missouri so that pick could change for me.. serious lack of respect for the big ten

[cocknocker]

Who knows, I may flip flop on the NC State/Rutgers game. I am hearing very appealing information from both sides. I m only putting up peanuts on it, but I would like for it to come back, lol!

[Ant2nv]

Ck took the wordz right out of my mouth chicago and new jersey seem 2 be the same, never kno wat your gonna get....chicagoz been playing much better of late tho..despite their last 1/4 fade out against miami....

I actually like chicago 2 get the upset win on the road here...think 5.5 is to much, i was thinking 3.5 max!!
Chicago all day +5.5 against the nets!!!!!

Minnesota/memphis...No play, no way...how much the triple over time? hahaha

Phoenix/oklahoma...im expecting a high scoring game so the over 208 might be my play, im very unlucky with over/under tho, i like steering away from them!

Denver/Atlanta....Denver will win Atl wont kno wat hit them, and denver might even be given 2.5 here,....
Denver my play of the day!!!

[spal2811]

i appologize as i know you guys have explained fading a number of times, but just as an example; if i am putting $50 on the t-wolves -1.5, how would i fade this play and for how much?

thanks

[NBA Hero]

no one seeing a blowout for phoenix after a loss of a point to the spurs.

shaq got a lot of rest and should play (back to back game).

phoe is to big for okl. penetrations would be limited so the okl will keep on shooting outside.

once phoe ( nash) limits the turnover and barbosa recover from a bad game, it will be over soon

[ManBearPig]

i appologize as i know you guys have explained fading a number of times, but just as an example; if i am putting $50 on the t-wolves -1.5, how would i fade this play and for how much?

thanks

If you r gonna fade the same way ck does u would put $5 on the memphis ML if i remeber correctly. This is the vig you would pay to get even money back from ur original bet at -110.

[nick2060]

What do you like about Minny? Here's some stuff i looked up:
Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 in minny
Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in the last 6
Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7
Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5
Minny is 3-11 ATS at home compared to Memphis being 5-9 ATS on the road.
Minny is 2-8 ATS on one days rest. Memphis is 8-7-1 ATS on one days rest.

Of course Darko is injured and that's gonna hurt them, im just curious as to the angle your taking on this game.

[Spoon]

You guys remember this video put together by VAW-116 Hawkeye Squadron? Just a little humor for the thread.

[cocknocker]

nick2060,

It's just money, baby. I can't explain it more than I already have. Trends and line movement don't have anything to do with this play at a just win spread.

The (Grumpy) man told me about this one at the half of the Niner game. "Minnesota's synergy will match that of the Grizzlies and they will get the benefactor calls down the stretch,"

Check it out...it may be close, but the T-Wolves are starved for a win. Memphis is the team to beat and the public knows that." Yet they are coming off of a close win against Indiana and a double overtime loss by 3 to San Antonio. That's a lot of close games in a short period and after that back to back, with one days rest, still on the road to meet a road dog team the public feels is inferior by ats results and record. Whatever. It ain't just me on this one. I have the PC Boys using their big money too.

[lolisaiahlol]

ok CK i Just played Minnesota, i hope that PC play is going to be right!

[Dexter]

i faded him quite often and did very well for myself

who did you fade?

**added play for me today on over missouri

[Dexter]

What do you like about Minny? Here's some stuff i looked up:
Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 in minny
Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in the last 6
Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7
Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5
Minny is 3-11 ATS at home compared to Memphis being 5-9 ATS on the road.
Minny is 2-8 ATS on one days rest. Memphis is 8-7-1 ATS on one days rest.

Of course Darko is injured and that's gonna hurt them, im just curious as to the angle your taking on this game.

darko milic is going to hurt the grizzlies?? thats the first time i have ever seen someone give that guy props...lol

[strybie]

I take MEM +2.5. They played very good last games, and their top players are better then the MIN top players. If MEM almost win @ SAS, why wouldn't they be able to win in MIN ?

Other plays for today : ORL ML, DEN ML

[NBA Hero]

dexter,
maybe he means darko will sub for gasol, esp if in foul trouble and in a closely contested game. last time gasol got in foul trouble, 5fouls against tim.
they would probably use warrick, but al jeff and craig smith should use some strong post move to get gasols foul. already gave up on kevin love but at least he grabs the rebounds.
but i get the joke, darko being mention and a factor. good for him that he gets his playing time at memphis. did you see him rip his jersey when he got almost consecutive fouls on yao. the guy ( darko) is strong.

go wolves

[Dexter]

nah i didnt see that.

i'm with the mafia on minny tonight. i will never ask questions when it comes to a pc play.

[peterpan19]

PC plays are golden, and I need that after an 1-5 day yesterday, some were close, but a loss is a loss

Bulls look solid too, dont know about that Phoenix game, OKC/Seas seems to have their number, as they are 4-0-1 ATS at home vs Phoenix, but then Phoenix only won by one earlier and lost by 1 against SA, so it has revenge written all over it, so you might want to take a look at the Phoenix team total too to go over ??

[killersweet]

I think raptors can get the job done tonite.
Taking Raptors -1 and orlando -2. and I like the over on GST game as well.

[africanroller]

Yes I said I wanst going to play any NHL but this one is just to good not to play.


Montreal and the Under

• Under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings.
• Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Florida.
• Road team is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
• Under is 4-0 in Canadiens last 4 games as a road favorite.
• Under is 4-0 in Canadiens last 4 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
• Under is 7-0 in Canadiens last 7 road games.
• Under is 8-2 in Canadiens last 10 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
• Under is 4-1 in Canadiens last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.
• Under is 8-2-1 in Panthers last 11 home games.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Panthers last 6 games as a home underdog.
• Under is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game

[zackattack]

i am now 9-3 in bowl games......todays selections are nc state and missouri........also take phx tonight in nba -9.5......and of course the pc play!

[The_Kid]

CK, Orlando is favored by -2.5 now and you said it was too much. I hate to fade the Magic though because as you said, "they're too hot to handle with oven gloves." Maybe it is a good idea to skip this game altogether but now I'm finding out that some of the key Pistons players are dealing with injuries right now. Rip Hamilton has a left groin injury (questionable tonight), Antonio McDyess has a bruised thigh, and Tayshaun Prince rolled his ankle. Both McDyess and Prince received treatment for their injuries but they are expected to play. At any rate, I don't expect any of the bigs from the Pistons to slow Superman down. Kwame Brown, Amir Johnson, Jason Maxiell, and McDyess will definitely have their hands full.

[nonsense48]

rut/ncst: sides are evenly split and the money line is ncst 85%-15%

[africanroller]

Im seeing Rutgers 61%

[peterpan19]

den +5 and going up, ? seems too high, if it goes to 6 you could think about it
was +13, butler must be out here ?
phi +7 is tempting
gs -1 ? 4-1 ATS vs Tor, I know b2b, but Tor should be tired even more after long road trip

edit: gs +1

[africanroller]

Im thinking the play in the Denver game is the Under

[SlicWilly3]

Anyone else love COLORADO STATE ML +160 today against UVM?
This game should be a pk imo.....I just see a lot of value taking Colorado State on the ML.
They are +4 against Vermont. Game tips at 4pm