Leans for Sunday 12/28/08

[cocknocker]

I don't really like the card for NBA on Sunday.. So what we will do is make this one an open board, so I am relyin upon the CK MAfia nd other visitors to open up their minds and come up with a great play for us to make on Sunday.

As far as the early game, i give the slight nod to the Knicks+whatever, as they are in a funk, and have out of towners coming in with midwestern clocks in their heads. The spread will go to 5 on this one, and if t does, i would more than likely take the Knicks+6 if it does. But that is merely a spin and not a take, as I would have to see the line go up in order to take that game.

NO PLAY Waiting for the board to come up with something juicy.

NFL

Early games:

Green Bay-12
New Orleans+1.5
Atlanta-13.5 (buying a hook)

Second set of games
Cardinals-6.5 (buying a hook)

Late night tweek game:

San Diego-9

Well I didn't show that much. It wasn't all the way hard. But I showed it, so now y'all show me yours!

[jamesrg]

Denver -4

Celts -12

Cavs - 10.5


those are the only three games that are on the board right now and those are the 3 that i like


I'm confident i can hit 2 out of 3 and turn a profit.

[jamesrg]

As far as the nfl goes i think Arizona should cover the 6.5 against a bad Seattle team at home

After being a no show the last 2 weeks Arizona should show up and put a few things together this week heading into the playoffs....

Well if they're smart they will.

[jayc88]

i like the clippers against the mavs tomorrow,
lac are 4-1 ats this year vs dallas and they're coming off two huge blowout losses against toronto and milwaukee.
This game will be their 2nd home game after a 4 game road trip.
They had plenty off days off during christmas and i think they are able to keep it close.
I also have the impression that the mavs suck against inferior competition in early games, and they might also be without dirk nowitzki , who commited a flagrant foul against the jazz on friday and might be suspended for the game.

just a few early thoughts

[Clutchski]

with the odds right now...i think going with the cavs is the safest bet at home against miami even at the -10.5.

When it comes to the knicks...the nuggets have won consistently against sub-par teams on the road. The line is at -4. It's a tough call..it's right after Christmas...will their minds be focused on beating NY in NY on the 28th? It's a toss up. This game is at 11am eastern! To me, that screams the under after the nuggets travelling..right after christmas..and playing early in the morning...

[Clutchski]

i like the clippers against the mavs tomorrow,
lac are 4-1 ats this year vs dallas and they're coming off two huge blowout losses against toronto and milwaukee.
This game will be their 2nd home game after a 4 game road trip.
They had plenty off days off during christmas and i think they are able to keep it close.
I also have the impression that the mavs suck against inferior competition in early games, and they might also be without dirk nowitzki , who commited a flagrant foul against the jazz on friday and might be suspended for the game.

just a few early thoughts

I also like that...they were bigtime tired against the raptors after 2 overtime games back to back...they've had a break and are now playing at home. we'll see what the odds are. good call to look at it.

[Dexter]

i also am not feeling the nba card on sunday - going to take a closer look at the hornets only if peja. he means a lot to that team offensively - i have my line set at no -5 (assuming granger plays). the road team has dominated that series of late (4 of 5 ats) but this play would be more of an *instinct* play/liking the hornets with peja. he is sorely missed in their perimeter game. just not sure if im willing to lay the pts. here is my nfl analysis carried over from the early week thread:

panthers @ saints-

neither team should have trouble scoring in the dome this sunday. the panthers may be a *running" team, but they can hit plenty of big plays with homerun threats in smith/d'angelo. the saints offense is clicking as usual - and with brees eying the record, he should be in pass mode all day.

*over*
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

broncos @ chargers-

huge game on SNF for all the marbles. denver took the 1st meeting in an absolute shootout by 1 in denver - this time around i like the chargers to light up the scoreboard at home. playing very well right now, while the broncos are limping to the finish line with no defense. pts should not be an issue for either team. something like 37-21 sd.

*chargers*
*over*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

dolphins @ jets-

jets are playing really poor right now, while the dolphins are playing very well. i love the fact that the line keeps dropping (think it is for the basic reasons i just mentioned). the same way the meadowlands helped get the giants a huge win, i think the elements + favre/jones will find a way to get the jets a huge home win.

*jets*
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

redskins @ 49ers-

singeltary will like to put his stamp on this team as a defensive oriented/run heavy team. i see him leaning heavily on gore this week, and as usual, the skins will rely heavily on portis. the skins have gone over just twice in 15 games this year (7 straight unders) while the 49ers have gone under in 4 straight. both teams try to fast forward the clock to 2009 and forget about this season with heavy ground games.

*under*
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

chiefs @ bengals-

the bengals as a favorite (0-2 ats this year)? i dont think so - love the way thigpen is playing right now, and he's a threat running or throwing the ball. LJ is healthy and Gonzalez has been all world this year - the Chiefs are 5-2 ats on the road and getting a field goal here seems like a gift. the bengals have won 2 straight as a dog, but i dont like them giving up pts.

chiefs*
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

pats @ bills-

i'm not a fan of laying pts on the road in the nfl - but that pats own buffalo in orchard park. last 4 years/wins in buffalo were by 46, 22, 28, and 14. now the pats are asked to cover a 7 point spread in a huge game for them. yeah, the inter-division dog could be playing with no pressure etc etc - but i'm banking on belichek to have these guys focused on the task at hand..

*pats*
*under*

[Dexter]

i like the clippers against the mavs tomorrow,
lac are 4-1 ats this year vs dallas and they're coming off two huge blowout losses against toronto and milwaukee.
This game will be their 2nd home game after a 4 game road trip.
They had plenty off days off during christmas and i think they are able to keep it close.
I also have the impression that the mavs suck against inferior competition in early games, and they might also be without dirk nowitzki , who commited a flagrant foul against the jazz on friday and might be suspended for the game.

just a few early thoughts

fyi - randolph sprained his knee last game.. i have my line on this game (with z-bo) at dal -4

http://www.latimes.com/sports/basketball/nba/clippers/la-sp-clippers23-2008dec23,0,5402767.story?track=rss

dirk appears to be a go:

http://www.star-telegram.com/287/story/1113662.html

[wangichu]

did a write up earlier, but i always love the bills as dogs and that hasn't happened since early in the season. I know that the pats have dominated them in the past, but this is cassel and as good as he's been, he's not brady, and it's just not the same matchup. The bills were awesome early and faded terribly for a number of games, but after playing tough last week and having trent edwards get his swagger back, i think they can get it done... at least covering. Bills have solid special teams and revenge to work with on top of the home dog thing and on top of all that... the books have begrudgingly given some late reverse line movement with 80% ish on the pats.

BUF +6

Miami gets revenge... favre is getting tired and has been showing it lately... his poor mechanics are starting to outdo his natural strength/athleticism. Dolphins are playing well and the line movement indicated them winning despite even money on both sides.

MIA ML (+120)

saints are great at home, much better than anywhere else, panthers are a .500 or less club on the road and home field is perfect in this division. Add the fact that the public is on the panthers and that line has caved down to 1.5, i'm believing in the saints more by the day

NO +1.5

the books know that the cowboys are going to get heavy public money either way in this game, but they definitely didn't want to give philly backers any kind of insurance to play them and that's why they're favored. i know revenge isn't enough, but philly is better late season, dallas is bad late season. philly got revenge on the giants on the road, they can get it at home against the cowboys... the skins game was garbage, but that's what causes the rebound effect that makes a philly W all the more likely. Philly played the boys tough in week 2 and really should have won if they had executed down the stretch or made a couple plays on D. The under looks good too, but i'm just thinking philly gets it done by any means. line movement has my back and this is the philadelphia superbowl since there's no way the raiders beat the bucs.

PHI -1

[djpremier36]

Call me crazy but I'm leaning against the Lake Show and liking the GSW at +15. GSW are 3-1 ats vs LAL in the last three years and always play them tough. Crawford and Jackson should be a go.

BOS at -12 should be a go since BOS is obviously pissed over losing an unthinkable 2 in a row. Gang green beat the Kings by 20 last year in Cow Town and it should be a repeat performance. SAC has already lost at home by 20 points 3 times this year, make it 4 after this game. Look for a quick start for BOS in the first half after they went ice cold in the 4th quarter against the GSW.

CLE at -10.5 looks appetizing as well. MIA is flying high after winning 4 in a row over a very kind schedule but that will end soon. MIA has already lost on the road to teams like MEM by 16 and POR by 38, this CLE team will stomp the Heat. CLE has won by a margin of 11 in the last 2 meetings in CLE and that will increase after this outing.

[Wilforth]

Cleveland -11
Denver -4.5

[The_Kid]

Carmelo Anthony is set to return from his elbow injury on Sunday. He said he felt "pretty good" after Saturday's light practice.

"As far as going down there and getting banged up, that's going to happen," Anthony said. "I just gotta prepare myself for that and ask myself, 'Is that something that I really want to do?'"

[africanroller]

The only pick I like in the NFL tomorrow as of now is the Pats will absolutely dismantle the Bills. Tomorrow is day to wait for game reports as most teams will lay eggs who are already in the playoffs. I can see Arizona sitting everyone after the first quarter and this could lead to Matt Leinhart and 5 int's.

[Dexter]

The only pick I like in the NFL tomorrow as of now is the Pats will absolutely dismantle the Bills. Tomorrow is day to wait for game reports as most teams will lay eggs who are already in the playoffs. I can see Arizona sitting everyone after the first quarter and this could lead to Matt Leinhart and 5 int's.

thats what i originally thought, then when i noticed ck was on arizona, i figured the starters would be going..

"Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt strongly indicated Monday that he plans to play his starters in Week 17 against Seattle.
Whiz will "treat this as a playoff game, within reason" and says "we need some success" after being blown out 47-7 in Week 16 by the Patriots and 35-14 in Week 15 by the Vikings."

[Dexter]

with 40-50mph winds in NE today, i'm also making a play on the under.

*under pats*

[Dexter]

Clippers forward Zach Randolph is questionable for Sunday's game because of a bruised left knee.
Randolph went through portions of Saturday's practice, but it sounds like he'll be a game-time decision. The Clippers have an early 3 p.m. tipoff.
Source: Los Angeles Times

ESPN's John Clayton doesn't believe that Pierre Thomas (back) will play Sunday against the Panthers.

NFL Network reports that Marshawn Lynch (shoulder) will not play Sunday against the Patriots.
Buffalo is expected to roll with Fred Jackson as its every-down back.

Peyton Manning will reportedly only play one series Sunday before the Colts replace him with Jim Sorgi.

NFL Gameday Morning said that winds upward of 35-55 MPH are expected in Buffalo today.

[peterpan19]

a few trends for the early game:
New York is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
New York is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
Ny was embarassed again at home, first by mil and now by minn
den starts it own little 4 team road tip on the east coast today, that being said, its an early game for them, they are only 1-5 ATS over the last 6 games, they will come out a little bit flat and fat from the holidays, where as NY needs this game big time, home after 2 really ugly losses

I take NY + the points here, I will wait until gametime and hope it goes to 5 or 5.5 and buy a point

[Dexter]

i remember watching some of the navy/n. illinois game and couldn't believe that n. ill was a div 1 program. now they're in a bowl game? i'm siding with the public on this one, and taking the home team in La Tech. They've also won 4 of 5 to end the year, while n. ill has lost 3 of 4 including a shutout loss to end the season.

*la. tech*

[peterpan19]

on to the CLE game here:
Yes Cle played pathetic against the Wiz on christmas day, they normally blow out their opponents, so it was only a matter of time before they would stumble a bit. But now come the lovely Mia team into town, against which the Cle are 4-2 ATS at home. One thing that cought my eye is that Cle only allowed 83.33 pts in December at home and that they scored a eye popping 101.5 pts.
And now take a look at Mia, they gave up 105.75 pts in December on the road, ok they also scored 103.75 pts. in this games (but their season average is only 97.4 pts.)
So I have this game at CLE scoring close to 100 pts and only giving up 90 pts. max, so the 10 point spread should be enoguh to cover.
So I take CLE -9.5 (buy the hook), the Under is also very appealing, but you never know how mad CLE is after the performance against the Whiz, so that could be close.
I also dont know what the team total for CLE will be, but it might an option too.

Edit: Team total is 97.5 for CLE, looks good to me

[Ludovike]

Good morning to all

So far my money is on

New York +4,5
All too early for Denver

Boston 1H -7
Angry Celtics will hit quick & hard

Cleveland -10,5
No way Miami will stop the Cavs

Thinking of
Dallas - my countryfellow Dirk will put the Mavs back on track
Golden State - 16 points are too much to cover against self-confident Champion-beaters

BOL

[peterpan19]

3rd game i like today is GS + points, I dont like the NOH game at all and also Bos is a bit tricky, eventhough I would leasn towards Sac here.
15 pts is a damn lot of points, GS normally easily scores 100 pts in La, in fact they scored 108.8 pts the last 5 trips there.
Combine that with the spread of 15 and the Lakers have to score at least 120 or more pts, I just dont see that happening, yes Lakers played well lately but you might have to worry how they show up against a GS team after a huge win for the Lakers against Bos, I mean they know they will win this game easily and might not play as tough as they did against the Lakers. On the other hand is GS, they beat Bos by 10 pts. and the Lakers only by 9, so they are thinking that they might have a chance here, and who doesnt want to win hat the Center anyway ?
I probaly will go with GS +the points, but will monitor the line movement

[Dexter]

final early plays-

over no 51.5
kc +3
pats -6.5
under pats 35.5
packers -11.5 (ck)
falcons -14 (ck)

[africanroller]

Hurry up and hit up KC

Inactives: Carson Palmer (3rd QB), RB Chris Perry, RB Kenny Watson, T Levi Jones, T Stacy Andrews, WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR Chad Johnson and DT Jason Shirley.

Cincy has called it a season!!!!

[Dexter]

Hurry up and hit up KC

Inactives: Carson Palmer (3rd QB), RB Chris Perry, RB Kenny Watson, T Levi Jones, T Stacy Andrews, WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR Chad Johnson and DT Jason Shirley.

Cincy has called it a season!!!!

line down to 1 - glad i got down early...

[africanroller]

Better hit the Pats if you havnt yet!!!

BUFFALO
RB Marshawn Lynch - Inactive today. Fred Jackson will start.
WR Roscoe Parrish - Inactive today.
WR James Hardy - Placed on IR this week.

Sorry but Edwards cant hit Evans when its 80 and sunny nevermind with 50 mph winds

[Ivic]

is that NFL?
Kansas City Chiefs
and
???

[Smacksmiter]

Buffalo/Pats O/U has dropped from 40 to 34...winds are very very high, most likely they will not be able to throw the ball or kick field goals so alot of going for it on 4th down if across the 50 yard line...get the under asap...

Also like the Buffalo +6 , with low scoring game, points should be huge and Buffalo should be able to run with the Pats defensive injuries...

Good luck!

[africanroller]

Fred Jackson will be able to run at the Pats when they stack the box all day? Oh Yeah and the Pats go for it on 4th down all year anyway and if you didnt watch last week. Cassell did pretty good in a blizzard

[Dexter]

is that NFL?
Kansas City Chiefs
and
???

yes, nfl....chiefs

[Dexter]

Fred Jackson will be able to run at the Pats when they stack the box all day? Oh Yeah and the Pats go for it on 4th down all year anyway and if you didnt watch last week. Cassell did pretty good in a blizzard

i'm on the pats as well, but fred jackson is a pretty good runner. solid homerun threat with really good hands.

[shoebox]

Im just gonna mention one game that only Dexter and ck has listed and I am very suprised that no one else is on them. Why has nobody other than Dex snd ck locked and loaded on the chargers. Two teams going in two different directions. This ones gonna be a blowout people open up your eyes. Plus, the zebras already cost this one for them once......I smell revenge get this blowout with the low number.

Chargers (big) -7.5 Might wait cause the line will be dropping ....

[africanroller]

The problem with Fred Jackson is he is also banged up and not playing at 100%.

Also if you havnt bet the Colts yet, Tenn is not starting Gage or CJ.

[shoebox]

Pronk and spoon where you at?
Let me know what you got on the hardwood.
thanks

[africanroller]

3 early plays

Pats -5.5
Chiefs +1.5
Colts +3

I may be crying when its all over but its going to be fun

[Dexter]

The problem with Fred Jackson is he is also banged up and not playing at 100%.

Also if you havnt bet the Colts yet, Tenn is not starting Gage or CJ.

manning is playing 1 qtr...