NBA Betting: Capping a strong rookie class
NBA Betting: Capping a strong rookie class
This year's crop of NBA rookies, including several one-&-done's from the college ranks, is starting to turn some heads, and the newcomers are definitely grabbing the attention of astute handicappers. Led by players like No. 1 overall pick Derrick Rose of the Chicago Bulls, O.J. Mayo in Memphis and Philadelphia's Marreese Speights, the youngsters are making an impact on the professional hardwood.
Kids really are growing up faster these days.
It wasn’t that long ago when NBA fans were lamenting the onslaught of underclassmen entering the draft. Players were joining the league unprepared for the rigors of pro basketball, spending their first few seasons planted at the end of the bench while they learned the game and hit the weight room.
We might as well be talking about the set-shot and the underhanded free throw. One look at this year’s crop of premium rookies, replete with “one-and-done” players, shows how much the times have changed – and reminds handicappers how important it is to pay attention to the full spectrum of an athlete’s development. We’ll be looking at the genetic tests of children at this rate.
1. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
The No. 1 overall pick hasn’t exactly carried the Chicago Bulls on his back; they’re 11-12 SU and ATS at press time. However, he’s scoring 18.8 points with 6.5 assists per 40 minutes stepping into the most difficult position on the court. And his work ethic is in stark contrast to Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas – their glacial development is dragging this team down.
2. O.J. Mayo, Memphis Grizzlies
Mayo has the better numbers (22.1 points, 4.4 rebounds/40 min) and would probably win the ROY award right now. I have him at No. 2 only because his job description is somewhat easier. Mayo has already exceeded expectations and made the Kevin Love trade look pretty good for Memphis right now.
3. Marreese Speights, Philadelphia 76ers
Speights has the highest PER among regular first-year players at 18.63 (Two-time MVP Steve Nash is at 18.65). The former Florida Gator is good for 19.0 points and 11.3 rebounds per 40 minutes, but Speights is only playing 12.9 minutes per game, buried for now behind the slumping Samuel Dalembert (10.80 PER).
4. Rudy Fernandez, Portland Trail Blazers
There’ll be a renewed rush for Euroleague-trained talent after what Fernandez has been able to do at the NBA level: 16.5 points and 5.2 boards/40 with a 40-percent success rate from downtown. Mayo’s defense is much better, though.
5. Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
He was considered a throw-in when the Lakers traded for his brother Pau. Instead, Gasol has taken the starting center job from Darko Milicic (a disappointing draft bust, but still a decent player) and provided Memphis 15.7 points and 9.3 rebounds per 40 minutes. Gasol is also a very good defender and, like Fernandez, battle-tested at age 23.
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets
Wednesday, Dec 17, 9:30 p.m. (ET) ESPN
It’s still early in the season, but I’m more than willing to admit I had the Spurs dead and buried and that I was wrong. This aging team has been invigorated by the decision to start Matt Bonner at center – he can’t defend, but he’s a 40-percent career shooter from behind the arc, and Bonner is nailing 52.6 percent of his threes to start the season.
The contributions of rookie guard George Hill (17.14 PER) have arguably been more important; he logged heavy minutes earlier this season when both Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili were injured. Another draft coup for the Spurs at No. 26 overall. Add Roger Mason (a late bloomer at age 28), and you have a revitalized San Antonio team leading the Southwest Division at 15-8 SU (12-11 ATS).
The Hornets (13-7 SU, 9-10-1 ATS) are buzzing again after a slow start, winning eight of their last 10 and shredding the betting odds 7-3 ATS. They’ve beefed up their roster with a trio of former Spurs: Devin Brown (in his second tour of duty with NOLA), Sean Marks and the recently arrived Antonio Daniels. Rasual Butler (45.3 percent from long range) has taken Morris Petersen’s spot in the starting lineup, and James Posey (45.9 percent) is also lighting it up in his first year with the Hornets.
New Orleans now has plenty of secondary scoring to support Chris Paul, who has actually improved on last year’s MVP-quality season with a 30.85 PER. Paul is the best player in the league not named LeBron James (33.28 PER) and easily the best player in this matchup. His ability to find the open man gives New Orleans the advantage against a Spurs team that allows 36.0 percent shooting from the perimeter, ranking No. 16 in the NBA.
This year's crop of NBA rookies, including several one-&-done's from the college ranks, is starting to turn some heads, and the newcomers are definitely grabbing the attention of astute handicappers. Led by players like No. 1 overall pick Derrick Rose of the Chicago Bulls, O.J. Mayo in Memphis and Philadelphia's Marreese Speights, the youngsters are making an impact on the professional hardwood.
Kids really are growing up faster these days.
It wasn’t that long ago when NBA fans were lamenting the onslaught of underclassmen entering the draft. Players were joining the league unprepared for the rigors of pro basketball, spending their first few seasons planted at the end of the bench while they learned the game and hit the weight room.
We might as well be talking about the set-shot and the underhanded free throw. One look at this year’s crop of premium rookies, replete with “one-and-done” players, shows how much the times have changed – and reminds handicappers how important it is to pay attention to the full spectrum of an athlete’s development. We’ll be looking at the genetic tests of children at this rate.
1. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
The No. 1 overall pick hasn’t exactly carried the Chicago Bulls on his back; they’re 11-12 SU and ATS at press time. However, he’s scoring 18.8 points with 6.5 assists per 40 minutes stepping into the most difficult position on the court. And his work ethic is in stark contrast to Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas – their glacial development is dragging this team down.
2. O.J. Mayo, Memphis Grizzlies
Mayo has the better numbers (22.1 points, 4.4 rebounds/40 min) and would probably win the ROY award right now. I have him at No. 2 only because his job description is somewhat easier. Mayo has already exceeded expectations and made the Kevin Love trade look pretty good for Memphis right now.
3. Marreese Speights, Philadelphia 76ers
Speights has the highest PER among regular first-year players at 18.63 (Two-time MVP Steve Nash is at 18.65). The former Florida Gator is good for 19.0 points and 11.3 rebounds per 40 minutes, but Speights is only playing 12.9 minutes per game, buried for now behind the slumping Samuel Dalembert (10.80 PER).
4. Rudy Fernandez, Portland Trail Blazers
There’ll be a renewed rush for Euroleague-trained talent after what Fernandez has been able to do at the NBA level: 16.5 points and 5.2 boards/40 with a 40-percent success rate from downtown. Mayo’s defense is much better, though.
5. Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
He was considered a throw-in when the Lakers traded for his brother Pau. Instead, Gasol has taken the starting center job from Darko Milicic (a disappointing draft bust, but still a decent player) and provided Memphis 15.7 points and 9.3 rebounds per 40 minutes. Gasol is also a very good defender and, like Fernandez, battle-tested at age 23.
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets
Wednesday, Dec 17, 9:30 p.m. (ET) ESPN
It’s still early in the season, but I’m more than willing to admit I had the Spurs dead and buried and that I was wrong. This aging team has been invigorated by the decision to start Matt Bonner at center – he can’t defend, but he’s a 40-percent career shooter from behind the arc, and Bonner is nailing 52.6 percent of his threes to start the season.
The contributions of rookie guard George Hill (17.14 PER) have arguably been more important; he logged heavy minutes earlier this season when both Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili were injured. Another draft coup for the Spurs at No. 26 overall. Add Roger Mason (a late bloomer at age 28), and you have a revitalized San Antonio team leading the Southwest Division at 15-8 SU (12-11 ATS).
The Hornets (13-7 SU, 9-10-1 ATS) are buzzing again after a slow start, winning eight of their last 10 and shredding the betting odds 7-3 ATS. They’ve beefed up their roster with a trio of former Spurs: Devin Brown (in his second tour of duty with NOLA), Sean Marks and the recently arrived Antonio Daniels. Rasual Butler (45.3 percent from long range) has taken Morris Petersen’s spot in the starting lineup, and James Posey (45.9 percent) is also lighting it up in his first year with the Hornets.
New Orleans now has plenty of secondary scoring to support Chris Paul, who has actually improved on last year’s MVP-quality season with a 30.85 PER. Paul is the best player in the league not named LeBron James (33.28 PER) and easily the best player in this matchup. His ability to find the open man gives New Orleans the advantage against a Spurs team that allows 36.0 percent shooting from the perimeter, ranking No. 16 in the NBA.