Leans for Monday 12/15/08

[africanroller]

CK, That is what I was trying to say. Most dont bet dimes on here so playing all the hooks are not beneficial. When you are doing for a living as yourself the of course I understand you do what you have to do. I will buy a half point at times in the NBA to get it to a round number but I use it more for the NFL.

And yes I completely agree with you on Baseball and cant wait to hit a ton with you. Baseball and Hockey are my bread and Butter and you dont have to worry about someone throwing a game.

[Spoon]

Yeah, I hear you, CK. My experience on Saturday was dreadful and I got crushed by the Cavs and Pistons last week when the line dipped down a lot. I think you capped the game well, but I'm passing on this one. Cash it for me though. ;-)

[shoebox]

Dont know if you missed my ? ck just wondering if you use and probability or statistical formulas...???

Thanks much appreciated

[maddogmadden86]

hey ck what are your thoughts with the nets coming off a blow out lose at home last time out agaisnt the raptors and the nets losing 3 straight, me being from new jersey the nets wont shoot that bad again especially with devon harris and vince carter coming to toronto to look to get revenge

[africanroller]

The Eagles spread is up to 16 points. This is Monday Night Football and the Brownies will definately get up for this game. Oh it has to be that defense that gets up thou because that offense is horrible.

Anyone playing this game tonight? That just seems like way to many points and the Brownies are 3-0 ATS VS Philly.

[rb4033]

Miami dropped to -2.5 now.


sportsbookspy: 66% on bucks!

[cocknocker]

Oh, sorry about that shoebox,

I was just looking at the footage of this guy throwing his shoes at George Bush. That is some funny shit!

Okay, I don't probable statistics other than this one in particular. In basketball I don't like to take teams that have won more than three straight games s/u and ats, and I always like to take above .500 teams that have lost 3 or more straight up and ats. In college basketball I always roll with a home team that has had 3 straight conference losses.

I use current previous results to gather statistical information to formulate my spread projections. i don't always use consensus numbers when i make my wagers either. Sometimes too much is put on reading the line movement. I like to see average margins of victory placed against the assigned spread more than looking at the consensus. One important ingredient is the straight up history of teams too.

As BigMoney can tell you, I actually have in mind what I am going to play in the NBA for the entire week on Sunday evening, with some exceptions every now and then. Basketball is a game of synergy. I use all kinds of tools; power rankings, money lines and corresponding spreads, etc. I hope that that answers the question for you...
In football I ALWAYS bet against teams that beat the previous years' Super Bowl champions in their following game if they are facing an opponent with an over .500 record and the total is under 41 for the game (The Ravens fit this bill on Saturday. These teams in the Cowboys situation are just 2-19-1 ats. BTW The Ravens +5 is the next PC Play)

[cocknocker]

rb4033,

Yes. it's exactly as i had planned. Everyone is jumping on the Bucks due to Miami's bad loss to the Grizz. Let it ride and see is you can take it down to Miami-1.5. they will win the game. It's just a matter of by how many.

[shoebox]

Thanks reason being one of my friends is a statistition and uses over under probabilities based on every team throughout the course of the NBA season. Reason being it all boils down to percentages of team shooting. Gathers all the data and pulls the trigger when they are over or under there equilibrium due to his over under scoring model.

[maddogmadden86]

haha how funny is that ish CK i wish bush would have taking one to the dome that would have been classic!

[tdotcotez]

I'm fading utah tonight because of the point averages (for/against) and because boozer averages a triple double against boston everytime he plays them.

[africanroller]

I hit Miami at 3.5 a couple hours ago and its still sitting there on the sites I use.

[peterpan19]

I like the browns D a lot, probably last MNF in a long time for them
Phi win was great against Nyg, well win against cardinals, I dont know, I think you get the pivture.
Anyway Phi wins, but dont think they cover 16 here, browns still have a D, I see a 28 - 14 kinda game, maybe even less pts for phi

[peterpan19]

I hit Miami at 3.5 a couple hours ago and its still sitting there on the sites I use.

pinny has it at -3.5 too, hit a half hour ago

[spal2811]

ck, or anyone really,

I was wondering if you had a sheet or chart with the formulas you follow like the spread to money line chart or any other "rules" or trends you take into account.

I dont know if it is easily put into a spreadsheet or other document but I would like to have it to be able to reference when I am looking at games

thanks in advance

[Dana4U]

I use VIP and it too has been at -3.5 for a hour or so.

[2qwik]

CK's previous message

ck, or anyone really,

I was wondering if you had a sheet or chart with the formulas you follow like the spread to money line chart or any other "rules" or trends you take into account.

I dont know if it is easily put into a spreadsheet or other document but I would like to have it to be able to reference when I am looking at games

thanks in advance

CK,
I will answer this question for you since you provided this information to us in the past.

Fellow CK understudies,
The following is just a copy and paste of what CK provided before in the forum:
I have been waiting for someone here at SBR to ask me that question. It's not a complicated thing, but once you have learned it, wagering will become easier for you, especially when you start comparing the following chart to the amount of points being offered for a particular game. If you combine this information with what i call (perfect or near perfect trends) 100% trends, then your winning percentage should go up. Remember to always try to stay off of the "key" or even numbers if you can.

This following is the official chart for NBA Pointspreads and the corresponding moneyline.

I suggest that all readers of this forum copy this chart to become more educated on NBA wagering. Some of the CK Mafia has a grasp on it, notably BigMoney and Wangichu, but here it goes for all to smoke on:

-2 -130/+110
-2.5 -140/+120
-3 -155/+135
-4 -200/+170
-4.5 -220/+180
-5/5.5 -240/+190
-6 -270/+210
-6.5 -300/+220
-7 -330/+250
-7.5/-8/-8.5 -360/+280
-9/9.5 -400/+300
-10 -450/+325
-10.5 -475/+350
-11 -500/+375
-11.5 -550/+400
-12 -625/+450
-12.5 -650/+475

If a spread and corresponding moneyline opens above these numbers or the outcome is expected to go higher than these numbers, then you can look for the spread to continue to rise over a given day, as there is wiggle room for the linemaker to do so since staving (discouraging average and square bettors to take the high ass moneyline) is in full effect.

Now this guideline is not strictly followed by all of the books as they will try to persuade bettors to be forced to take the points by raising the moneyline to an incredible monetary number in order to stop bigtimers from making eay paydays. This practice is called "staving". Only an educated bettor would know that if a game is being offered for more than the official moneyline guideline that you would need to do your homewaork and find out if a team has a "perfect" or near perfect trend against the team that is the dog. If the trend is not any where near perfect (75% or better winning percentage and ats percentage) then you have a sound play for the dog. If the trend is near perfect, and the spread (regardless of the consensus) line keeps increasing then the favorite is the call. If there is no moneyline offered and the spread for the favorite looks ridiculous, then the favorite will cover (always look for this).

Nothing in wagering is 100% (except the fact that you will make money consistently taking 1st inning runs to score in baseball from May to the World Series), so of course you won't win them all, but at least you will have an idea of what the true and pure guideline is for points and corresponding moneylines.

[cocknocker]

spal 2811

I put the spread versus corresponding moneyline chart on a thread from last week. Dig through those old threads, and you will find the conversion chart. I just named a few of those tools that I use in an earlier post on this thread.

[africanroller]

Orlando up to -3.5 now.

[wangichu]

CK, any value in 1Q NFL lines

CLE +3 (+120)
OVER 7.5 (+115)

little weird looking... gotta think i'll hit one if i play both.

[DaProfessor23]

dam i should have figured Mia spread would go down ... i think i got them at -4.5 .. i think they will cover regardless tho .

[cocknocker]

wangichu,

the over 7.5 is worth a couple a bones. I just can't take Cleveland homie. On anything....

[wangichu]

yeah, that's what i figured. I kinda think that philly will come out strong enough... I'll play it small

[Netprofit]

Just to share my plays:

(in order of confidence)

1. New York - Phoenix First Half Over 114.5
2. Phoenix -8.5
3. Golden State +3.5 (trap)
4. Miami -3.5
5. New Jersey +160 (believing in Vince hatred factor)
6. Denver +1 (have to fade CK on this one, I like Billups+Anthony over Old Kid+Nowitzki)

[nick2060]

wang, not gloating but im pretty good at betting nfl, and i really don't think either of those are good bets. Ken dorsey being blitz with a bad line and jamal lewis getting 3 yards a carry a better bet would probably be eagles -3.5 and POSSIBLY over 7.5, but eagles -3.5 looks reall good

[maddogmadden86]

hey CK i got the Suns at -8 on my book you think it has a chance to drop to 7.5 were your key number is or should i just pull the trigger now in chances that it might go back up

[CTS5]

I know phoenix and new york are very high scoring teams, but come on 225.5? Please tell me someone is looking into that under. That's alot of points people.

[IrwinFletcher]

I know phoenix and new york are very high scoring teams, but come on 225.5? Please tell me someone is looking into that under. That's alot of points people.

For what it's worth.. the Suns are making a concerted effort to get back to the run and gun as exemplified by the acquisition of JR.. and we all know D'Antoni's style is SSOL. Look for little defense in this game and the Suns will want to have fun and play fast.. 230 is no way out of reach..

[CTS5]

True but your looking at the way the suns have been playing without shaq in the line up. He returns tonight.

[IrwinFletcher]

I'm sure he'll see somewhat limited action..

[cocknocker]

To heck with Shaq. He'd better be dominant when he gets into the game. That's what I know!

[CTS5]

Why is miami off to such a slow start. Damit

[africanroller]

CK what do you think about Charlotte +8 second half?

[IrwinFletcher]

He will.... I just think Porter will be a bit cautious with the big guy tonight.. Look for him to play 20 minutes or so tonight with Lopez getting more work.

[wangichu]

CK what do you think about Charlotte +8 second half?

i'm on ATL -8 2nd half... they'll do this sometimes, coming out slow, but dominating late. They always come back in the second half and win by a smaller amount... that's why i don't like laying those big spreads, but they'll still win this thing and that line means they only have to win by a bucket... love it.