Leans for Monday 12/15/08

[Broncos9798]

Its Locked Down For Tonight

Alright CK,

As promised yesterday I am following you to the end(even if that means betting against my Nuggets). However I am playing a little bit off one of your non-official picks.

If the Dallas games goes over then the Nuggets will win the game. If it goes under then Dallas wins the game.

Dallas -1.5 and Under 209.5 - .5 Unit(2 Team Parley)
Phoenix -8.5 - 1 Unit
Miami -4.5 - 1 Unit

Anything else you want to add or looking good?

[ClayBalls]

Where are you guys getting your information with things like history of covering spreads and overs, etc? That would help me come up with some things on my own.

[Broncos9798]

Go to www.sbrforum.com
There are all the tabs for NBA/NHL Etc.
Select NBA and go down to Matchup Reports
Its shows all the games then you can select Matchup Report for whatever game you are looking at.

GL

Where are you guys getting your information with things like history of covering spreads and overs, etc? That would help me come up with some things on my own.

[cocknocker]

I took Miami at -3.5 to get under the key number.I don't think that the lien will go under 4 on it's own, and I have to step out for a few hours, so i don't want to come back and find that the line is 5 or more. I like the Heat's chances of winnng by 2 baskets at home over a Bucks squad that has been in perpetual motion. Hell the Heat own them anyway at home...

Heat-3.5

[cocknocker]

My official plays are

Phoenix-7.5 (1 point buy to get under the key number)
Miami-3.5 (1 point buy to get under the key number)
Dallas-1.5

[The_Kid]

For those of you interested in playing the Celtics/Jazz game...

Carlos Boozer (knee) will not play in Monday's game, marking his 14th consecutive DNP.

Boozer's injury is more to his knee than his quad and also included a bone bruise. There is no definite return date, but he will likely need to practice at least once before returning. It is unknown if he will practice on Tuesday, so check back for an update.
Source: Salt Lake Tribune

[OuchaDirkFan41]

Takin Suns and I hope my Mavs dont burn me! I dont bet them often but its been rough the last 3 times, Indy, Clips and, SA(got mavs +2.5 from my dude, they just couldn't lose by two in the 4th or 1st ot to cover, pathetic. Dirk missed 2 game winners, I personally thought J kidd should of taken the ;ast one after he drilled one right before.) Thank god the Boys'did thier thug thizzle last night too, took ATL-P,DET-W,AZ-LBal-L and the Boys W so it wasnt so bad.

[killersweet]

Kings have fired the coach today(espn reporting). Wolves are +4 tonite and have been playing decent ball lately. So what do u guys think? Take the Wolves tonite?

[sportsguy04]

No one on Orlando -2 tonight? No ellis, Maggette, and now possibly no Jackson. No howard but still...?

[cocknocker]

sportsguy04,

It looks too easy. With all of those injuries for the Warriors the line should be Orlando-6 in my opinion. It looks like a gimmie, but I'm not so sure.

[R4mPaGe]

what do you think about the celtics and jazz over 192?

[joanapoker]

.....guess no one likes ORLANDO
I do! Locked ORL -2

My Final Card (with 3 CK picks, of course)

DAL-1.5
DAL UNDER 209.5
MIA-4.5
ORL -2 (I think the warriors are just no match for the Magic, soft number here...maybe its a trap...consensus is heavy on them, and the line has not moved yet, according to Power Rating the line should be ORL -8...so why not take advantage??)
BOS -9 (just want to ride them @home)
IND +1.5 (don't even ask lol)

CK I would really like to know if you think the linemaker knows something that we are all missing in the ORL/GS game??

[Broncos9798]

Added .5 Units - Orlando - 2

sportsguy04,

It looks too easy. With all of those injuries for the Warriors the line should be Orlando-6 in my opinion. It looks like a gimmie, but I'm not so sure.

[cocknocker]

The Warriors game is a trap. i have had time to analyize this game's assigned line for awhile and the side numbers, and so on. It doesn't make sense. I would encourage any bettor playing the Magic to wait until late to play this game. With 90% of bettors on Orlando, a correction should be on the way. I would be more inclined to take Orlando-4 with 90% on them and corresponding movement than to take them at 2 with absolutely no movement on them. I wish you all luck on that one.

[killersweet]

I like the Raptors play tonight. They were suppose to lose to a team like NO yesterday and they lost. But they have been getting better for sure. I expect them to beat NJ by 4. I would buy a point and make it 3 to be more comfortable. Also since this being the 2nd game at home between these 2 teams, I think crowd would lay off Vince.
I also like the Wolves tonight. They have been playing better ball lately and I think they can cover 4 points.

GL everyone!

[joanapoker]

The Warriors game is a trap. i have had time to analyize this game's assigned line for awhile and the side numbers, and so on. It doesn't make sense. I would encourage any bettor playing the Magic to wait until late to play this game. With 90% of bettors on Orlando, a correction should be on the way. I would be more inclined to take Orlando-4 with 90% on them and corresponding movement than to take them at 2 with absolutely no movement on them. I wish you all luck on that one.

Thx CK for the fast reply....

I have a feeling that something weird is going on.....but now it's done!
cya later

[Broncos9798]

CK,

Question for you. I see that a lot of times that you buy a point in games to get off key numbers or increase your odds. On my website the normal juice is -110. If I buy half a point it cost a dime and a full point 2 dimes. So that make a bet -130. Should I follow your strategies with -130 or take the chance at -110.

In NFL I see that huge advantange in a -3 situation(Atlanta this weekend). However some of the NBA games seem to be cutting into my profits.

Thoughts?

[DaProfessor23]

CK,

Question for you. I see that a lot of times that you buy a point in games to get off key numbers or increase your odds. On my website the normal juice is -110. If I buy half a point it cost a dime and a full point 2 dimes. So that make a bet -130. Should I follow your strategies with -130 or take the chance at -110.

In NFL I see that huge advantange in a -3 situation(Atlanta this weekend). However some of the NBA games seem to be cutting into my profits.

Thoughts?

broncos , it all depends on how much your betting . if your like me who never bets more than $15 on a game you really cant afford to buy that hook or a whole point, because its dips into your funds heavily . if your betting 100+ on games then its usually a must because it only costs you a couple dollars and in the long run it will save you more money then your losing. i dont know how much Ck bets but im sure its not $10 bets lol , so for him that hook is essential and probly helps him most of the time

[cocknocker]

Okay,

There is a game on the board that has no moneyline that I just saw, and although I don't like wagering on college basketball, I have to put something on it. USC-25.5 against Pepperdine is not assigned a moneyline and it is 2:00pm, which means that it's not a question of wether USC wins this game, but by how much. I am gonna put a few hundred on it, as I don't fully trust college athletes. It is too easy to buy one of them off fo rth throw. So I won't be playing this game too hard. I am also placing it in a SMALL parlay with

UC Davis-1
Syracuse-12.5
USC-24 (bought a point and a half)

Do not trail me o this parlay unless you want to lose your money. I don't like to do them, so obviously it won't hit!

But I had UC Davis capped to win by 10, Syracuse to win by 16 (Cleveland State is on their 3rd road game in 4 days I think it was. I already threw my sheet away) and USC doesn't have a moneyline assigned to their game, but I had to take it down a bit anyway. They bit me in the ass against USF (San Francisco), so I am gonna tred lightly.

[africanroller]

Since reading this thread I have never taking the hook when CK has said and it has never cost me a game. I know at times it will happen but for me I would rather take the push then cut down across the board on my profits.

I know this isnt everyones motto but just wanted to give you my opinion.

[DaProfessor23]

Alright everybody iv'e made my picks for today [ most of these were from CK ]

Pacers vs Washington = Pacers [ML]--- there only +1 and ML was even so since im broke that 9 or 10 percent means a lot!

Nuggets vs Mavs = Mavs -1.5

Bucks vs Heat = Heat -4.5

Knicks vs suns = suns -8.5

---actually i think these were all suggested by Ck lol . I agree with all of them and hopefully we all get paid tonight!

[cocknocker]

Broncos9798,

Betting on baseball will get you used to betting -130 with no problems. The hook and the point are useful tools in wagering once you have learned how to use them. Don't be afraid to put a few more dollars in the name of a higher winning percentage.

[Spoon]

Some people call the Magic game a trap, but how? GSW has so many injurys and I believe the Magic can beat them with no injurys. DH is a huge loss for the Magic, but they have been playing well despite him not being in the lineup.

Orlando -2 is play regardless.

[BookBuster]

hey Ck, Does the Mrs. have any thoughts about Charlotte +8.5 tonight @ ATL?
It was only a 5 point lost the last time these teams met back on Nov. 21. ..And Toronto looks great tonight against New jersey..Jersey got beat at home last Friday by 30 points or so....i think Toronto will carry that momentum home...hit me back up and let me know what u think....i got those plays u got earlier on str8 bets already....just trying to get a little parlay in for some fun.

[shoebox]

CK do you use any probability or statistical formulas??

[tdotcotez]

69% of the public but only 14% of the total money on miami..... HMMMMMMM

Had to fade john morrison tonight n go with boston.

[cocknocker]

roller,

when you're putting up about 3 grand a day, you want all of the insurance that you can get. When I was betting hundreds though I wasn't buying points at all. I didn't see the use in buying points at that time. But when I started beting dimes....

[rb4033]

cK, look my parlay:

Pacers 1st Half
Toronto -2 1st Half

what you think??

I on HUGE on Miami and Orlando!!

[cocknocker]

Bookbuster,

I am sorry, I actually forgot to report her play for the board until you said something. She is laying off of the sides for the night. She doesn't like the new additions theory either after talking things over. However, she is making a play for the OVER the total in that game, which is wise considering that the teams combine for 186.8 actual points and their lines have been 189 on average, which has produced 3 out of 5 unders in the last 5 games at Atlanta. Obviously the linemaker made an adjustment for all of those under hits!.

Over 184.5 Style's pick

[Spoon]

The Miami line is moving too much. It's down to -3 @ BetJam. This is how I got burnt on the Cavs and Pistons game.

[cocknocker]

rb4033,

It looks good! I hope you hit it. I think that although Washington is a better 1st half team, Indiana is in desperation mode now. Totonto is playing better at home now and they are establishing an identity. Good luck to you, homie!

[nick2060]

not sure if this was common knowledge already but i just came across the fact gerald wallace is doubtful due to personaly reasons

[peterpan19]

mia is down to -3.5 and falling ?
whats going on ?

magic line at -2.5

[cocknocker]

Spoon,

Don't get too caught up in the line movement. See my post earlier about the line going down based upon the Heat's bad loss to the Grizzlies yesterday. I had already taken it into account, and if you noticed, i played them at -3.5 too in anticipation of the line dipping. It will shoot back up just prior to gametime. 3 and 3.5 are one and the same, as they need to win by 4, which is a beautiful spread in my opinion. If you don't like the game, lay off of it, and play another one. i am all over the Heat in this game, and according to my research, the line should have been Miami-6.5 coming off of a loss.

[Sloanie29]

CK,

any thoughts on Miami now that the line has dropped to 3.5?