Leans for Friday 12/12/08

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for Friday 12/12/08
    Warriors week continues in Part 3. What we have is a revenge game at the Oracle. The Rockets beat a weary and road ravaged Warriors squad on 12/5 by a 131-112 score, Blowout City. This time the Warriors get t face the Rockets without the services of Ron Artest, who did not make the trip. T-Mac may make his return in this game, which is why the line hasn't been offered yet. If he does the Rockets will have their third different lineup in as many nights. That means a lot of mnute mixing. The Warriors have the momentum right now coming into this game. ANy points given to the Warriors in this game are too many. As I indicated at the beginning of this week, this is Warriors week, and I am going to ride them like Roy Rogers rode Trigger.

    Warriors-1 (projected)

    detroit is no longer the media darlings, and the wolves are nipping at their heels. What better team for them to cure the sickness against than the Indiana Pacers, a team with no spine. The Pacers have absolutely no shotblocker on their squad, which means that the Pistons can pretty much call their own shot in the middle if they so choose. It is always a good idea to take a team that has lost 3 games in a row that is an above .500 team. Throw in that the Pistons are 4-2 ats against the Pacers in Knuckle City, and I'll take my chances with the chalk on Pistons to get it done on Friday night in front of the home crowd. I will take them in the 1st half too.

    Pistons-6 (buying a point, and playing it Thursday night)
    Pistons-4 1st half (projected)

    As we have already discussed, I am taking the New Orleans Hornets to get the job done against the Celtics. They are 3-1 ats against the Celtics in their last 3 contests overall, and they are catching the Celtics coming home on the back end of a back to back situation. The public will be all over the Celtics because of the blowout win over the Wizzards. This is an out of conference game, so Boston is not familiar with the Hornets style, having only to play them 2 times a year.

    Hornets+7 or more

    I am taking the quantum leap on this one and going to bet against the Cavs for the first time this year. This is a home and home series that they have going with the Sixers. The Sixers played them tough in the 4th quarter of the first game, and almost got the cover. This time they kick the Cleveland covering machine over. I estimate that this line will be Cavs-10.5. The Cavs have injuries to Ilgauskas and Gibson, so they are a little short handed, and this actually evens up the hardwood, and makes Philly the taller team. I look for the Sixers to have their usual and customary cover on the road in Cleveland as they are 5-2 ats in games between these two teams in Cleveland.

    Philadelphia+10.5
  • BrandNew
    SBR Rookie
    • 12-12-08
    • 5

    #2
    CK, you are killing it man. Could you please look at Chicago@Memphis (Chi -2). Watched the Memphis game against the Thunder, they were down by 21 in 2Q, but they came back and won (108-100) luckily they were playing OKC and Wilcox got hurt early. I don't think Memphis can keep up with Chicago with a full roster available. Rose should have a field day against Conley & Gordon should cancel out OJ's production. As long as Chicago contains Rudy Gay this should be an easy win.

    I've been reading sbrforum a lot lately & you seem the most knowledgeable here. An input from you would appreciated.

    leaning Chi -2
    Comment
    • cocknocker
      Restricted User
      • 11-06-08
      • 8001

      #3
      Never mind. i just looked at the consensus numbers for Detroit, and the public is all over Indiana 70% to 30%, so maybe the line will fall to 6, which in that case i can buy a half point and pound the Pistons heavy. I think that I like this bet te most out of all of them. The Pacers are a jumpshooting team with no heart. This one will be a wire to wire job. I think that the Pistons will win this one by 14 or so.
      Comment
      • Lets_Get_Money
        SBR Sharp
        • 12-10-08
        • 347

        #4
        Ilgauskasis out for the Cavs, thats why the line isn't out yet
        Comment
        • Devon
          SBR Sharp
          • 11-25-08
          • 371

          #5
          What's your PC play that's coming up?
          Comment
          • johnnymapalo
            SBR MVP
            • 06-14-08
            • 2999

            #6
            Originally posted by cocknocker
            Never mind. i just looked at the consensus numbers for Detroit, and the public is all over Indiana 70% to 30%, so maybe the line will fall to 6, which in that case i can buy a half point and pound the Pistons heavy. I think that I like this bet te most out of all of them. The Pacers are a jumpshooting team with no heart. This one will be a wire to wire job. I think that the Pistons will win this one by 14 or so.

            hmm, I want to play the pistons too but I just don't trust them right now. They're too helter skelter for me.. Pacers are horribble on the road though but they have some shooters on the roster.
            Comment
            • cocknocker
              Restricted User
              • 11-06-08
              • 8001

              #7
              Devon,

              Cowboys-2.5 NFL

              Brand New,

              Actually Memphis is 8-1 ats when playing at home against the Bulls. Handle this one with caution. I actually give the slight lean to the Grizzlies. They are showing signs of improvement, and Chicago is not consistent enough to be giving up points on the road in my opinion. Memphis always plays them close in the 1st halves (47.3, 46.3 in favor of the Bulls) It's not about the name of the team. It's how they play against a particular team. I don't like the Bulls in that game. However, i do like them the following night against the Nets at home.
              Comment
              • isiah121
                SBR Sharp
                • 12-04-08
                • 313

                #8
                CK, what are your thoughts on the Hawks +2½?
                Comment
                • cocknocker
                  Restricted User
                  • 11-06-08
                  • 8001

                  #9
                  isiah121,

                  the Hawks are just 1-3 ats their last 4 games in Miami. And they are 1-4 straight up. BUT since they have lost 3 games in a row, they already qualify for a good play in spite of that record, especially since the Heat have won 4 in a row. Because of those current streaks it will be a great play if you wake up tomorrow morning and the public is all over Miami. My advice is to watch the line until noon or so tomorow, and then we can take it up at that time. i don't know how I missed this game, but you have my attention stirred now
                  Comment
                  • Spoon
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 11-21-08
                    • 592

                    #10
                    @CK,

                    Do you feel like giving some O/U a crack?
                    Comment
                    • BrandNew
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 12-12-08
                      • 5

                      #11
                      Thanks for the input. I really like Hornets +7. This should be a close game with Boston playing back-to-back with travel involved. CP3 should contain rondo's penetration, and Hornets has the length to bother Boston's jump-shot since they take too many jumpers. And Posey coming back to Boston should be an interesting match.
                      Thanks Again
                      Comment
                      • lolisaiahlol
                        SBR Rookie
                        • 11-23-08
                        • 43

                        #12
                        MR. COCK KNOCKER! thanks for helping me with the Boston pick! What do you think about Spurs -6½!
                        Comment
                        • CTS5
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 12-02-08
                          • 223

                          #13
                          Hey CK, what do you think about orlando at phoenix? I wonder if j-rich is going to play because suns are -2 against orlando which is a pretty good team. I'm looking into that game and also atlanta at miami, which looks like an easy win for the hawks coming off a loss against the spurs.
                          Comment
                          • isiah121
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 12-04-08
                            • 313

                            #14
                            CK, which team would you play if you only have one choice: Hornets +7 or Hawks +2.5? Should I ask, which dog has a better chance?
                            Comment
                            • cap
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 11-15-08
                              • 79

                              #15
                              Kings +16,5
                              Comment
                              • cap
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 11-15-08
                                • 79

                                #16
                                By the way stock market going to fall below 8,000 tommorrow due to failed auto bailout, anyone wanna bet
                                Comment
                                • NBA Hero
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-05-08
                                  • 1886

                                  #17
                                  how abt toronto. will they have a win over the nets.

                                  toronto is strong inside. will parker play this time.

                                  anybody on the know?
                                  Comment
                                  • nick2060
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-28-08
                                    • 1051

                                    #18
                                    I read he is doubtful, meaning most likely no, but you got plenty of time to get a more sure word before gametime (regarding Parker)
                                    Comment
                                    • vassman86
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-11-08
                                      • 1042

                                      #19
                                      Just a suggestion

                                      Hello fellow CK Mafians! I read just about every post on this thread, and I'm surprised at the astounding number of people that just mindlessly post things like "What do you think about this game?" or "What do you think about this second half bet?" Come on guys...CK is not a machine, he has a life. The very least you can do for all of us (CK and yourselves included) is to justify why you think there is potential in a certain play. Provide us with some of your own insight and an opinion. We're all here to help each other find winning picks.
                                      Comment
                                      • NBA Hero
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-05-08
                                        • 1886

                                        #20
                                        SA is a good matchup. Mchale hasnt won yet, now he understand the position he made. And miller might still be missing. Is he playing
                                        Comment
                                        • vassman86
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-11-08
                                          • 1042

                                          #21
                                          Spurs/T-Wolves
                                          So far, this is the only game I've looked into. Right off the bat, what worries me is that: of the 1300 bets on the spread so far, 96% are on the Spurs -7, which immediately sets off a million light bulbs in my head. The linemaker's goal is to get 50/50 money on both sides of the spread. He should know that the public will jump all over the Spurs -7 over the T-Wolves (4-17) who have lost 7 straight.

                                          One thing I've noticed about these two teams' trends is that the T-Wolves seemingly play the Spurs well in the first half: in their past five meetings, T-Wolves have only trailed after the first half on one occasion.

                                          Public betting aside, I, too, am allured to take the Spurs -7. The T-Wolves are playing their third straight game after firing their head coach. Also, earlier this season, we all saw what the Spurs' Tony Parker was able to do to the T-Wolves with his dominating 55-point game, helping the Spurs win it in OT, and that was without Ginobili. Speaking of which, in the past five games against the T-Wolves, Ginobili has averaged 28.8 pts, shooting 69.7 percent (46-for-66) from the field and 67.6 percent (25-for-37) from 3-point range.

                                          Now that all three all-stars are healthy, the Spurs are rolling to the tune of four straight wins, and after the T-Wolves, they head back home to host the OKC Thunder. Minnesota, on the other hand, must fly so they can lay down and die for the Lakers.


                                          I think Minnesota will put their best foot forward to star this game off before things get ugly. You can expect that Minnesota will come out strong, especially after losing with a huge second half lead against the Nuggets the other night. T-Wolves' coach McHale will have 6'7" Craig Smith as his power forward, which may give Parker some trouble. Share some of your thoughts !
                                          Comment
                                          • joanapoker
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 12-09-08
                                            • 2275

                                            #22
                                            I'm all for the OVER 189.5 at BOSTON! I'm seeing this game very tight...and maybe like CK picked the NO will cover the spread. BOSTON is a killing points machine and at home even better!
                                            Yesterday I made all the picks of CK and also made the OVER 196.5 @WAS! CK thx for the Bears predict (also bought the hook), NFL to me is like chinese!
                                            Comment
                                            • NBA Hero
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-05-08
                                              • 1886

                                              #23
                                              NO bench still has to prove they deserve the minutes excluding posey who gets around two-3's a game and defense, of course.

                                              powe, t. allen, and house is a major boost to the celts campaign.
                                              Comment
                                              • 2qwik
                                                SBR Hustler
                                                • 11-12-08
                                                • 61

                                                #24
                                                CK,
                                                Where did you see Philly +10.5 and GSW -1 because they are off the books right now. Was that your projection or were the lines up before ?

                                                Its now GSW +2.5 (Should we hit that hard CK ?)

                                                Yao Ming was held out of practice on Thursday due to the flu, but will play on Friday according to the Houston Chronicle.
                                                Ming used to have problems with the Warriors when Al Harrington was there to cover him, and also because he struggled in transition. Harrington is gone but the Warriors are still running, and if Yao is battling the flu this may be a game where he gets less minutes than usual.

                                                Houston Chronicle: Friday:
                                                Tracy McGrady practiced. Yao Ming did not. Yao, battling a cold, will play. McGrady might.
                                                McGrady uncertain

                                                “If he plays, it’s not going to be extended time,” Adelman said. “Obviously, he needs to work himself back to shape. But it was good to see him out there.
                                                McGrady was unavailable for comment after Thursday’s practice, but Adelman and others said he looked to be battling soreness in his left knee.

                                                GSW runs up and down a lot and considering the above facts I believe GSW is a play.
                                                You agree CK ?
                                                Comment
                                                • John Cash
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 12-02-08
                                                  • 5

                                                  #25
                                                  That was his projected. The line is out and is at GS +3
                                                  Comment
                                                  • cocknocker
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 11-06-08
                                                    • 8001

                                                    #26
                                                    Spoon,

                                                    No over/unders for me today. I hate how Utah played the exact opposite of how they normally play at home yesterday. I have the NBA package and have watched severl of their games. I don't think I have seen them walk the ball up the court the way that that they did last night this season.

                                                    lolisiahlol,

                                                    Spurs-6.5? No. I don't like that game. These are the Days of Detroit (today and tomorrow)

                                                    CTS5

                                                    I prefer the Hornets over the Hawks, but both are excellent picks. The Hornets are playing better basketball than the Hawks are at this time. Which of course means tha the Hawks will come out and blast Miami!

                                                    NBA Hero

                                                    Toronto/Nets? The Nets beat them earlier this year in an overtime thriller. The Nets got blown out in the 2nd half by New York in their last game. Toronto finally wona game. This is a tough one. Until Toronto establishes an identity, I can't wager on them. You're on your own on that one!

                                                    2qwik,

                                                    Yes those are my projected lines. But the Warriors are +2.5, and the Sixers are actually +10.5 ( I got that one right)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • cocknocker
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                      • 8001

                                                      #27
                                                      The line for Detroit will go up a bit probably , so I am going to play it at -6. I thought that they would go down, but people aren't stupid!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • cocknocker
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 11-06-08
                                                        • 8001

                                                        #28
                                                        New Orleans has gone down to +6.5 with 74% of bettors on the Celtics, which is good movement. The linemaker actually went below a key number. I have played the Hornets at +7.5 already.

                                                        With the Warriors being a dog, which I find surprising, I will wait for the line to come out at my book and play them at +4 or +4.5 if it comes out at my book +3 or +3.5. I better not get it at +3.5
                                                        Comment
                                                        • sb76854
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 12-05-08
                                                          • 6

                                                          #29
                                                          Great call on the CHARLOTTE AT DALLAS under last night!

                                                          I am 3-0 using your advice. I really appreciate your analysis.




                                                          Thanks!!!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • africanroller
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 11-30-08
                                                            • 936

                                                            #30
                                                            I have GS +3.5 and that equals a hrd hit
                                                            Comment
                                                            • joanapoker
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 12-09-08
                                                              • 2275

                                                              #31
                                                              CK

                                                              have u beted already at GS +3.5?
                                                              What have u locked in already? Sory for this questions, but I want to try to make exactly the same bet (same lines)!

                                                              thx for all the help!
                                                              P.S. already locked the Cowboys -2.5
                                                              Comment
                                                              • joanapoker
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 12-09-08
                                                                • 2275

                                                                #32
                                                                U already answered me
                                                                Comment
                                                                • BookBuster
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 11-09-08
                                                                  • 211

                                                                  #33
                                                                  hey ck...bookbuster again....any leans on the sactown/lakers game? i know sactown beat them last time out but do u think 16.5 is too much to cover tonight at home?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • LUNT101
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 03-12-07
                                                                    • 919

                                                                    #34
                                                                    CK, check out your Thursday leans thread and let me know what you think of my Dallas/Giants write up. Interested to hear why you and your boys are so high on the 'boys.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • cocknocker
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                                      • 8001

                                                                      #35
                                                                      My book, Greek.com has not offered the line yet. As stated, I better not get the Warriors+3.5. If I do the Rockets will heave to beat them by 6, because i will take it up to +4.5 by buying a point. A quick checlk of the consensus numbers shows that the Warriors are a minority among bettors 37 to 63%. So that means that if the line is 3 right now, it will in all likelihood go up to 3.5 at some point today to stave(there's that word again) off the onslaught of Rockets backers looking for a free payday.
                                                                      Comment
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