pronk... give me some NCAAB plays amigo... my bankroll has been on the rise, but i don't want to throw my money in a forum that i'm only mediocre at with an expert on deck... i cashed duke purdue as well as the other 4 plays of yours i got into to post, which means, i have played 5 of your college picks and won all of them (i missed out on the MLs that missed, luckily for me)... anyways, drop some college wisdom on us man, i'm hungry..
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I'll probably play Portland 1st Half near game time. At 4300 bets, 73% of the public is on Boston. They've driven up the line from -7.5 to -8. I hope this trend continues, maybe we can catch some favourable odds if we wait it out.Comment -
i know everyone would rather hear it from CK, but i think that my responses approximate his thoughts...
LAL vs WAS
WAS is a live dog and 12 is too much for a road fav... add to that the way that the lakers have been getting large double digit leads and then kind of slacking down towards the end and letting a team creep back into the game. They were up 16 on indy and lost, they were up 20 on the sixers and let them cut that to 12. The wiz have the kind of sharp shooters that can put them right back within the spread with but a minute of sloppy d from the lakers... that's why i'm on the half, before the lakers D gets sloppy
IND vs CLE
don't get me wrong, cleveland is the better team by a bit, but indy has the size and athleticism to compete with anyone, plus a wide array of jump shooters that can close deficits on the quick... maybe cleveland SHOULD handle business, but indy is too much of a live dog to give double digits to.
PHI vs DET
last time AI took on philly he won it on a buzzer beater... DET is a great team, but doesn't have any overwhelming advantages except experience and class. DET is coming home off a big upset win over the spurs and is not in a great position to win by double digits.
those games are all no plays for me... and everyone here has been with the public perception of those two games, so i would just issue a word of caution when approaching them... the public could win all 3, but line movement and situational play do not encourage public plays in these games...Comment -
I like the under in the GS/HOU game
Golden State's poor defense on the road this season has caused the line to be high. Houston is a half court offensive team which averages just 92.9
ppg at home and allows just 87.5 ppg. Houston is 9-0 UNDER in home
games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games
over the last 2 seasons. The average score in these games totaled just
179.1 points. I think Houston will control the tempo and it will come in
way under tonightComment -
I took the Lakers for the 1H already but couldn't pull the trigger on the game spread. You do have a point about the Lakers letting teams hang around at the end. I watched the Pacers and Sixers game and they just couldn't put either team away for good. The Lakers D hasn't been all that great recently either and to think they'll fix it now before the end of their road trip will probably not happen. I think if Jackson played Ariza more, their defensive intensity would pick up but he has Radmanovic out there running around like a chicken with his head cut off. Thanks for the response, wangchiu.
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good stuff man... thanks for doing a little research to back those plays... let's hit them up for some skrilla...
after LAL 1st half and POR 1st half, i'm with CK on GS and CHAR, but i also like 2 more plays....
MEM +1 (or 2 by game time.. probably buy to 2.5)
classic cave in spread... clips look like they should have been favored, but instead memphis was... the way the clips have played close and covered two double digit spreads, you'd think they would be set to just outright win one, but that's just never the way the NBA works, and the linesmakers know that the public has been on the clips for the last two games, and it's now time to collect from clipper homers, reminding them that they are still the clippers... memphis has only been a home dog to a sub .500 team once this year, and while they lost to a hungry golden state team, the clips aren't going to out jump shoot memphis or anything. Also, clips are playing their 3rd in 4 with another game tomorrow night against minny so they don't have any pressing need to win this game, with minny on deck tomorrow. Meanwhile this is only the 2nd game in 6 days for memphis so they will come in rested and ready. Still holding off here, but so far, i'm liking it.
ATL -10 (buyin hook)
Josh smith really is the kevin garnett of the hawks. the defensive mammoth, the exciter and the energizer... back when he was in the lineup, the hawks were undefeated coming into boston... since then, they've had a bit of a tailspin... but he is back and the hawks are fresh off a cover against memphis, and ready to start handling their business. The knicks meanwhile lost any real inside presence... add to this the fact that marbury's garbage is still prominently floating over this teams head and you have a garbage knicks team strolling into a hostile atlanta where josh smith will have his team ready to dominate a vulnerable knicks team that for some reason has got the public sprung on them.Comment -
wang, I like ur lakers at half play. looks solid to me!Comment -
Those are all solid plays wang but I am laying off Atlanta tonight. After watching that bench fall apart the other night after leading by 23 in the third im a little shaky on them. Yes they did cover but it came down to the end when it should not have.
Good luck on itComment -
add to the memphis write up... they have lost 7 straight ATS and still came out favored.... i'm on this play... just waiting on that line to get me up to 2... I'll buy it if it doesn't get their on its own
MEM +2.5Comment -
Ivic,
The two teams that I feel will win tonight without benefit of handicap are Orlando and the Lakers.
Sloanie29,
I like that teaser (Warriors+14/Charlotte+9.5). Those two wagers were strong without benefit of the extra 5 points, so that makes the play even more better. But shorten your wager with teasers.
African Roller
I think that Atlanta stumbles around a bit at the end of games because they always have to replace the points that their bench surrenders. They have no go to guy on the bench squad. What would be nice would be to let Acie Law start and bring Bibby off the bench to keep scoring consistent through all minutes of the game. But that won't happen when Bibby hasclauses in his contract. he would turn into a cancer if asked to modify his minutes. New York is faltering with the trades and lack of a decent big man in the middle. When David Lee is your tallest player playing center, that spells trouble if jumpers aren't falling on the other end. The Hwaks are not a good enough team to lay 10.5 points unless the team coming into town is on the second leg of a back to back and went to overtime the night before in a different time zone.
Shoebox
I do actually like the Knicks and Hawks to go over for the reason that I just gave Roller. The Hawks should be able to get to the basket at will on New York, and the Knicks won't stop shooting threes no matter what. They place a premium on the amount of possessions there are in a game. More possessions means more points.
The Kid,
I like the Lakers in that game, but BigMoney and I have a theory about teams in their third consecutive out of conference road game, and it's not good for covering spreads as a favorite. That third road game is about where the team gets used to the time zone change, and then magically transform into a east coast team, and then start playing east coast style ball. Which is grind it out ball. This happens because of the unfamiliarity with the players and their style of play. The crowd always comes out to see the out of conference favorite and to spur their team into playing harder than usual to get the upset.
This game is a tough one, although it may not look like that on the surface. Washington hasn't gotten these kinds of points at home against the Lakers since well before 1998. The first halves in their last 10 contests have averaged scores of 52.9 Lakers, 47.8 Washington (Lakers ahead by 5 going in at the break), But despite an ats record of 7-3, the Lakers are just 5-5 straight up, which means that the Wizards obviously come out to play in the second half. The spread of 6.5 for the 1st half is just a tad too many points to give the Wizards in the 1st half as they are actually an excellent 1st half team, and a late fading team. Remember, that which looks easy is often quite the contrary in this thing of ours.Comment -
pronk,
What are your feelings about the Texas A&M/Arizona matchup? I think that I like the Aggies to get the job done and avenge last years' 78-67 loss. Arizona is 2-5 ats in their last 7 road games, and A&M is 6-1 straight up in their last 7 at home. The consensus shows that 67% of bettors are on Arizona's side. I knw that A&M hasn't played anybody and has gone 1-2 ats against Division 1 opponents, but for some reason I like the odds being stacked against them. it actually seems to make no sense that they are favored in this game. The line has dropped as it should have with all of that money riding on the Cats from 4.5 to 3.5.Comment -
crap... i just can't play the hawks... they just don't blow out teams and that bench collapse against a team that hocks up endless 3's just doesn't make me confident in the hawks chances to hold it down... so i guess i'm sitting on...
GS +10
CHAR +4
POR +4 1st half
LAL -6 1st half (got it early)
MEM +2.5 (still holding before pulling the trigger)Comment -
CK..thanks for your input...appreciated.
you have any thoughts on the O/U for GS-HOU? i like the underComment -
here's another update for utah..
Dec. 5 - 3:17 pm et
Andrei Kirilenko (ankle) will return to action on Friday night.
This is where we would say that C.J. Miles' value will take a hit, except that Miles didn't do anything while Kirilenko was out. Since AK-47 only missed two games, it should be safe to get him back in your lineup right away.
Source: Salt Lake TribuneComment -
man i gotta say when monta ellis comes back the warriors could be one scary underrated teamComment -
Thank you, mundane. With that information, i am going to tease Charlotte and Toronto tonight.Comment -
[QUOTE=cocknocker;1269395]pronk,
What are your feelings about the Texas A&M/Arizona matchup?
CK, Judkins is out for Arizona (2.5 asst per game), but i think Cats will cover.Comment -
Ck, How many points you going on the teaser?Comment -
Thanks, Pronk, Cats it is for a light play!
Roller, I am putting in a 4 point teaser for Charlotte and TorontoComment -
adding a small 7 pt teaser...
LAL -5
ORL -6
POR +15
figured i'd probably pound each of those lines if the books gift wrapped them for me, so might as well make a small teaser to throw them all togetherComment -
Real quick behind schedual tonight. Boston and the Clippers. Also took Orlando first half, LA and Cavs but I think there will be some good half bets. Back to capping GLComment -
LOL Unnnn believable! Majik are up 5 in the 1st quarter and have 6 with 25 left. They miss and then get a stop. But heres the kicker 15 seconds left they put in Redick and he gives up the ball on a travel and he gets benched the next play and of course they stop the last Shot! LOL. Anyway i like Cleveland at half and Charlotte. I was leaning toward the warriors but they were on the road for 5 played one at home then back out. So in essence they are on a 9 game road trip. More to come. GLComment -
Cleveland is -2 in the 2nd half.Comment -
Well after my post I called the man and told him why I didn't like GS and he told me shut up and take them. So get what I did
Seriously though there is some good movement and he likes it allot so that is what i did. Gl
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Hope someone took the Knicks with me.Comment -
Leaning toward Boston in the second waiting until the line comes outComment -
Boston -1Comment -
Mines already in. Take it!! They are out rebounding them by 10 and offensive boards 2-1. GlComment -
I am glad I stayed away from the Lakers tonight this team really needs to learn to keep a lead in the 4th Quarter. I might just start having to bet against them ML in the 4th every game until they prove they can keep a lead.Comment -
Im with ya Brandon. I couldnt touch this team tonight either.Comment -
I agree If they cant close against the Wiz who can they close? I think they are only a good double digit bet at home.Comment -
2nd hal thoughts anyone? haven't been able to contibute much the last 2 nghts, been really busy.....Comment -
Knicks and Cavs second half cash. All the rest look good except the Bos.Port over. Portland cant hit a shot.Comment -
Portland is getting creamed. it will take an act of God to save us from going under. It looks bad for us on that one homies. They seriously underperformed tonight. I never saw that coming, but i did see Boston playing well against them as the ats record shows.Comment -
My thought on second half bets right now is Cleveland only. Eveyone else cant close a f-cking game out. I am only playig totals 2nd half except for cleveland and la at home only. Are yoi guys watching the bosotn and detroit BS on a friday night. UNreallComment
