Leans for Friday 11/5/08

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for Friday 11/5/08
    Golden State is one of those types of teams that you can't give 10 points to in any situation unless you have a Championship caliber team. They are one of the best tweener teams in basketball, despite the bad record. On Friday evening they go to the Toyota Center with 7 straight losses to face the Rockets. The Rockets have been skating by lately alternating wins and losses, as they search for the right formula to playing without T-Mac they have gone 2-3 ats. They got by the Clippers in their last game by the skin of their necks.

    The Warriors are going to go all out in this one, They have a 2-1 ats record in their last three games overall with Houston, and a 3-2 ats and 2-1 straight up record. With a spread of 9.5for this game, I encourage bettors to jump on this one tonight and buy a point and play this game at +10.5.

    The over is 4-1 in games in Houston between these two with average over/under lines of 198, and actual game scores of 204 on average.

    The 1st halves are usually Golden State 49.9 (50) to Houston 53.6.

    Warriors+10.5 I am playing this one immediately

    I absolutely love the game of the Blazers. They are strong at every position on the floor and have no visible weaknesses. They play great on the East Coast as well going 6-0 straight up. They have an straight up record of 0-4 staight up in Boston with a 1-3 ats record. But the new Blazers are playing out of their minds, and so is Boston, so what we will do is attack this game rom another angle and go after the total.

    What I see is that the over has occured 4 out of the last 5 contests in Boston with totals lines that have averaged 184.5, and actual game scores have averaged 195.4. And that wasn't even this group of hot shooting Blazers making overs. Both teams this year collectively give up 184.1 points per game, which isobviously where the linemaker got his total from, but when these teams usually score 195.4 against each other, obviously they know howto attack each other's weakness. I say that the three's will be falling from the sky and we take the over in this game.

    As a light option, since i think that Portland is better than most of the teams that Boston has faced this year (6-0 versus the East), I suggest teasing Portland with the over as a "sweetener"

    Portland/Bostonover 184.5

    The best kept secret in the NBA is the Charlotte Bobcats. As my wife can attest with boots and bags in hand, they are a covering machine. So why not play them againt a team that they own against the spread. The Bobcats are 1-4 straight up against the Bucks in Brewland, but they are an amazing 5-0 ats in thos games covering spreads that have been 9 points on average. Their average margin for loss was 6.5 in those games that they lost (4).

    The linemaker has taken noticed these results and have given Milwaukee a much smaller number than they normally get for this game (-4.5). The Bucks come into this game playing with less form than they did while they went on their 7-2-1 ats streak, but they did pick up a win against the Bulls in their last home game. Charlotte is scheduled to play the Cavs after this game, so the Bucks will be getting their full attention in this game. Charlotte comes into this game hot 4-2 ats in their last 6 games. I say that their groove keeps on going and they pick another ats win while the Bucks pick up another victory. I suggest waiting until the very end before taking them. If the line goes under the 4.5, we will buy it back to 4.5 only on one condition. The consesus is heavily in the Bucks favor and the line goes down.

    Charlotte+4.5 or more closer to gametime


    Toronto has fired their coach, and we all know how teams respond in the game immediately following a firing. So this is purely a situational play, combined with the Jazz injuries which has leveled the hardwood. The Jazz are shorthanded and out of gas. the Raptors come into this game losers of 2 straight and 0-5 ats. They are 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ats in games in Salt Lake City. What i want to see is a line fo Utah-8.5 or so with one of the injured players coming back from injury (to mess up the minutes and make the spread higher). If any of them comes ack and the spread is 8.5 or higher, then I will play Toronto. Anything less than that, and I may have issues with taking this bet. This is their third road game of their west coast trip, and after a players' only meeting while in between games, I say that they come out and play with great inspiration in this game.

    Toronto+8.5 projected (Win one for Sam)
  • cnleaf
    Restricted User
    • 11-08-08
    • 346

    #2
    GS, I already got it but its at +9.5.
    Comment
    • wangichu
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-07-08
      • 946

      #3
      i may toss that over on the ticket... i'm with you on charlotte, probably on GS.... i can't fade the jazz at home after lossing SU at home last game, but my favorite two plays so far are first halfers....

      LAL 1st half

      lakers are great at attacking on the road... when they play an inferior team, somewhere between the starters and the 2nd squad, they will handle their business more often than not on the road, especially against vastly inferior teams... the warriors are all high about a blowout they scored in NJ and they have to fly home and host the lakers who outclass them at every position 2x deep. If the warriors stay in this game it will be due to the laker's usual complacency... they were up 16 going into the 4th at indy, and they were up 20 in philly before relaxing too much (or just playing bench warmers maybe) and both times they wound up letting the teams make up double digits worth of the deficit before game's end. i don't by any stretch think that washington wins here, but they have the jump shooters to shake the lakers up a bit and get dangerously close to that 11 pt spread, so i will stick to the time that i know the lakers will dominate and that's going into the half.

      POR 1st half

      i think they cover here, but the way boston subdues teams late and the way both teams are probably better i'll stick to what the blazers do like the lakers... come out play good D, make their shots and put a solid efficient half of basketball on the opponent. They only lost by 10 exactly both times they played boston, but BOTH times they played, portland led at half. I've played POR 1st half a lot and they are very good about it (on the road). Almost any game they've won as road dogs, its been preceded by a good 1st half. even most that they lose as road dogs, they still cover or lead at half

      still marinating on others...
      Comment
      • nick2060
        SBR MVP
        • 10-28-08
        • 1051

        #4
        already played cleveland and Detroit, but im curious what you guys think
        Comment
        • wangichu
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 11-07-08
          • 946

          #5
          i've been pretty low at times on philly, but i almost think that the pistons are the kind of team that they could match up with alright, just like we saw for a few games in the playoffs... and now andre miller could get a little more room to work without billups up his butt... that's why i couldn't lay with detroit... if they had lost the last game, rather than be coming off a good win, i'd be on detroit... otherwise i just think there are better plays on the board...

          as for cleveland, indiana is just a little too dangerous for me to jump on cleveland with the public on them, but i'd think that cleveland should still cover as the underperforming pacers got their win at home and probably have inflated value by not catching 13+... that's just my take though... at the same time, going with two winning teams hosting sub .500 clubs can't be that bad
          Comment
          • vassman86
            SBR MVP
            • 03-11-08
            • 1042

            #6
            Great call last night on the Spurs +4, CK.

            I'm liking your plays so far.
            GSW +9.5 against a shaky Houston Rockets team that's still learning to adopt to Life-without-McGrady. I expect GSW to exploit the Rockets' struggles and keep this one close.

            Portland/Boston over 184.5. I feel this is advantageously low. Both teams are coming off of a full days rest. In their past 9 games with one day of rest, Boston has scored over 100 pts in 7 of 9 of these games. In their past 10 games with one day of rest, Portland has scored over 100 pts in 7 of 10 games. My prognosis: both teams enjoy resting Resting = high scoring = over 184.5 = Money in my pocket =

            Charlotte +4.5 - I don't know what to say about this that CK hasn't already stated. If it's Styles' play, it's good in my book!

            Raptors +8.5 (pending) - I'm a Toronto native and I watch the Raptors play whenever I get the chance. After getting absolutely demolished by the Nuggets three nights ago, I think that loss will act as a wake-up call for the slumping Raptors. One thing they do have going for them is that they've had a few nights of rest. Rest does wonders! Although it's their third road game, I can only hope that the Raptors come out motivated tonight and keep this one close.

            Wangichu,
            Lakers 1st Half - I like this play. I completely agree with you that the Lakers 1st Half is better than the Lakers spread for the game. The Lakers bench has been giving up way too many points in the late stages of the game. In their past two meetings, Lakers have led at the half by 11, and 22 pts. The only way the Wizards cover the half is if Michael Jordan comes out of retirement.
            Comment
            • vassman86
              SBR MVP
              • 03-11-08
              • 1042

              #7
              Btw, on behalf of the board, thanks for another great write-up for today's games, CK. We really do appreciate it.
              Comment
              • NBA Hero
                SBR MVP
                • 12-05-08
                • 1886

                #8
                What about the slumping philly.
                They will be ran to the ground by the back-for-one-game pistons.
                And it will be a home coming game for the once great iverson.
                miller and iguodala hasnt found their groove, and definitely YOUNG and WILLIAMS is not ripe enuf to cover the scoring load left by BRAND
                Comment
                • Garso
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 10-27-08
                  • 162

                  #9
                  CK Love the fact you're taking time to write these plays out... please keep em coming!
                  Comment
                  • Ivic
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 12-05-08
                    • 10

                    #10
                    put money on Detroit or not?
                    Comment
                    • killersweet
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-02-08
                      • 1483

                      #11
                      Good call on SA last nite CK.
                      what do u think about the over play on Hou Vs GST?
                      Comment
                      • inuk0923
                        SBR Rookie
                        • 07-30-08
                        • 35

                        #12
                        Hi Cocknocker. I am new to the forums.
                        It seems like you post daily and that you do pretty good for the forum here. I was wondering how much my bet sizes should be on your picks if I have a starting bankroll of $1,000

                        Also I was wondering if you know your season record and if your up units or down units for the season thus far. Do you know what you normally average per season? Do you play anything other than NBA? What is the sport you are best at betting on?

                        Hope you don't mind these newbie questions
                        thank you
                        Comment
                        • BrandonLaz
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 11-18-08
                          • 855

                          #13
                          Well I know you where directing your questions to CK, but I don't think he really keeps track of wins and losses. I can tell you that he is up on the NBA this season if you play smart and don't get crazy with your bet units. There will be some plays he will have you bet strong which he calls his PC plays. Personally I always think it is best to look at games yourself and see which ones you like then check with other people such as CK who I agree with more than anyone on the forum, and I see what plays they are playing. If they are against one of mine I just don't play it, if they are for one of my plays then it is a go, and if I didn't have it but agree with the write-up I might add it to my ticket. Anyway good luck with your sports handicapping and the main key to success in sports betting is bankroll management.
                          Comment
                          • cnleaf
                            Restricted User
                            • 11-08-08
                            • 346

                            #14
                            MEM +1.
                            It is the first time MEM is underdog at home. They played better at home than road. Though LAC played well recently after the trade, I still dont think that is enough reason to turn them into a favor in this game. From numbers,this season OFF:LAC 93.1 vs MEM 95.2, DEF: LAC 99.9 vs MEM 99.8.

                            IND +11.5
                            I dont understand why IND should get that many pts at CLE. Since the first matchup season is only 4pts loss at the spread of +7.5

                            CK what do u think?
                            Comment
                            • cocknocker
                              Restricted User
                              • 11-06-08
                              • 8001

                              #15
                              I am still waiting on Utah/Toronto's line. If it si smaller than 8.5 and no one os coming back for the jazz, then I will kick it to the curb. Those CK Mafia Vets know about this thing that I call minute mixing. This occurs when a star is bought back into the lineup from off of the injured reserve list. He will be out of sync, but at the same time will command the usual amount of minutes that he usually gets, thus messing with the chemistry that the team has built up while he was out. It also works in reverse as well. Most often times when a star player is out, the team bands together and plays over their heads. The guys that are bench players become starters and when installed in the lineup usually provide more hustle than the star does night in and night out. The production of the star player will be replaced by the team as a whole, and everyone gets more shots than on average.

                              So what I am looking for is for a star like say Carlos Boozer to return tonight after a couple of weeks on the injured list. His presence alone will make the spread go up at least 2 points. He will also command a lot of shots too, even though he may be off his game a little bit. While he is in the game, the +/- factor works in the favor of the Raptors in this case, as they can chip away at the lead while Utah tries to work him back into the fold. Remember he is playing with fear of reinjuring himself, rustiness, and lack of game conditioning.

                              Matter of fact, before I waste my time trying to find out if anyone is coming back for Utah, I am going to rely upon my comrades to help me out with that information.

                              Couold anyone from the CK Mafia please help me out and retrieve the information from the Salt Lake newspaper and find out if any one of the stars (Kirilenko, Boozer) are coming back tonight?
                              Comment
                              • cocknocker
                                Restricted User
                                • 11-06-08
                                • 8001

                                #16
                                inuk0923,

                                With $1000.00, I would place one hundred dollar wagers for whole game plays, and $25.00 for halftime plays, and $10.00 on any parlay you choose to do, with a minimum of 4 teams.

                                Once you get to $2000.00, start placing $200.00 wagers, and $50.00 halftime plays, and still only $10.00 parlays.

                                Once you get to $3000.00 start placing $300.00 wagers and $75.00 halftime plays and still only $10.00 parlays

                                Once you get to $4000.00 start placing $400.00 wagers and $100.00 halftime plays and $100.00 teasers (two teams only)

                                There you have it. Money management. Pin it up on your wall and never forget that information.
                                Comment
                                • mundane
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-25-08
                                  • 3592

                                  #17
                                  here's the latest for u.

                                  Comment
                                  • cocknocker
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 11-06-08
                                    • 8001

                                    #18
                                    On to the other questions...

                                    Ivic, nick2060, NBA Hero,

                                    If Brand is out for Philly, then Philly is the play. Remember that they were playing the Pistons tough prior to Brand's arrival. His production will be replaced by the entire lineup. Iverson is facing off against his understudies and may take a few too many shots. Philly covers in this one if given anything over 6 points. And the spread is 8, so Detroit must beat them by 10 to cash the ticket. No.

                                    cnleaf,

                                    I actually like Indiana and the Cavs to go over the total more than the Pacers shutting down their ats streak. They have length and size at all positions on the floor and if they get hot from the perimeter, watch out. The play of point ggurad T.J. Ford bothers me though. He is not getting his offense into the sets as quickly as he should for an NBA guard, and he is not hitting people at the most opportune time (in stride) to score. As far as the numbers are concerned, Indiana is 0-5 straight up and 1-3-1 ats in games in Rock and Roll City. Try the over. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.

                                    killersweet,

                                    I like the side more than the total. Houston may shoot cold when tying to outshoot the Warriors. They will get ahead at times tonight by 10 or more points, but the Warriors as I stated will be playing like wild dogs, so they will get the ugly cover tonight. I am also playing the Warriors moneyline as well tonight.
                                    Comment
                                    • mundane
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-25-08
                                      • 3592

                                      #19
                                      hmmm even without c magette (gsw)?? his listed as questionable.
                                      Comment
                                      • cocknocker
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 11-06-08
                                        • 8001

                                        #20
                                        Thank you mundane,

                                        Well the line is in for Toronto and they have been made a 5.5 point dog. I expect for them to go all out tonight. But i am going to get my 9 point spread another way if I have to. Hopefully the public will pound the Jazz, and the line will go up to 6. if it does, then I will shorten my wager amount and tease this game with the Charlotte game and make my spreads:

                                        Charlotte+8
                                        Toronto+10

                                        So I will be following the line for a while today looking for upward movement. I know that Toronto can cover a 10 point dog spread playing with a sense of urgency against a wounded Utah crew.
                                        Comment
                                        • cocknocker
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 11-06-08
                                          • 8001

                                          #21
                                          mundane,

                                          even without Corey Maggette. Morrow can replace his production. And the Houston guards are already going to have major problems with guarding the unguardable jamal Crawford.
                                          Comment
                                          • africanroller
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 11-30-08
                                            • 936

                                            #22
                                            CK, Do you believe that Atlanta covers a -10.5 point spread against the Knicks. We have seen an Atlanta team that truly has no bench and a Knicks team that has done away with its cancer. Yes they are the Knicks but they should cover this game, no?
                                            Comment
                                            • killersweet
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-02-08
                                              • 1483

                                              #23
                                              Yea, good point about Houston trying to shoot their way out. And I like your Ind-Clev over pick.
                                              As for the raptors, I think they will show up tonight. I hope Jazz line goes up. Then I would pick the raptors to cover the points. Or gotta buy some points.
                                              Comment
                                              • shoebox
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 11-26-08
                                                • 5710

                                                #24
                                                CK twp plays I love
                                                1st half Knicks/hawks over
                                                over 215.5 gm

                                                Two teams can light it up beyond the arc!!
                                                Thoughts???
                                                Comment
                                                • Sloanie29
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 12-03-08
                                                  • 111

                                                  #25
                                                  thoughts on 2 team tease

                                                  Warriors (+14)

                                                  and

                                                  Charlotte (+9.5)
                                                  Comment
                                                  • roasthawg
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-09-07
                                                    • 2990

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Sloanie29
                                                    thoughts on 2 team tease

                                                    Warriors (+14)

                                                    and

                                                    Charlotte (+9.5)
                                                    Don't know why you guys are posting in this old thread...I love Charlotte today though!

                                                    Ah, nevermind...it's supposed to be leans for 12/5. I'm fast this morning...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Ivic
                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                      • 12-05-08
                                                      • 10

                                                      #27
                                                      cocknocker

                                                      what you think who would win tonight (without handicap)?
                                                      1 or 2 games . thx
                                                      Comment
                                                      • pronk
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 11-22-08
                                                        • 6887

                                                        #28
                                                        CK, nice call on Spurs.

                                                        If i was Denver's GM, the first thing i would do today: #1 Fire Carl. #2 Suspend jerk Anthony for 10 games without pay to send a message to the rest of the team.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • maddogmadden86
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 11-08-08
                                                          • 898

                                                          #29
                                                          hey pronk dont you think lebron and company will destroy the sharp shooting pacers
                                                          Comment
                                                          • africanroller
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 11-30-08
                                                            • 936

                                                            #30
                                                            Guys check out the Fairfield/St Peters game tonight. 8 of the last 8 went over.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Wilforth
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 05-10-08
                                                              • 16309

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by killersweet
                                                              Good call on SA last nite CK.
                                                              what do u think about the over play on Hou Vs GST?
                                                              OVER in the GSW/Hou game looks like one of, if not, the best play of the day.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • The_Kid
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 02-09-08
                                                                • 5049

                                                                #32
                                                                CK, what do you think about wagering on the Lakers? I already know what you think of Washington and their "interior defense." I think Gasol/Bynum will have a field day inside against their big guys. I think Kobe will be able to get to the basket at will too.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • africanroller
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 11-30-08
                                                                  • 936

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Guys quick question and sorry for the ignorance. Is there any sports books out there that use paypal? I see neteller from the UK which is pretty much the same thing.

                                                                  What is the easiest way for most of the guys in the States? I know there must be something easier then what ive been doing. Thanks
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • nick2060
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 10-28-08
                                                                    • 1051

                                                                    #34
                                                                    for those lookin at detroit and philly, brand is definitely out
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • vassman86
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-11-08
                                                                      • 1042

                                                                      #35
                                                                      wangichu,

                                                                      Portland 1st Half +4 is looking like a good play. Boston shifts gears after 1st Half and pulls away in the second half. In the first half, at home, Boston averages 48.8 pts, and surrenders an average of 46.2. But, against opponents that score 98 pts per game (like Portland), the Celtics surrender 48.7 pts at the half.

                                                                      On to Portland. On road games, at the half, Portland averages 47.1 pts, and allows 47.3 pts. When playing opponents that score 99ppg (like Boston), they allow 48.9 pts at the half.

                                                                      Based on these half time stats, Boston does have an edge in the first half. But Portland is getting 4 points to work with here at the half. To me, this makes it a very favourable play.

                                                                      Portland 1st Half +4
                                                                      Comment
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