Leans for Tuesday 11/25/08

[cocknocker]

In the words of the Boss in Cool Hand Luke, "What we have here is a failure to communicate."

I don't know why the Warriors are an underdog in this game, but whatever. We'll take our chances with them catching points against the hapless Wizards Tuesday. The Wizards players are the reason why Eddie Jordan lost his job. The incumbent coach is another bench coach from that same regime. WTF can he teach them in 48 hours that they didn't already know and what can he show them that is fresh that they could have learned in that short amount of time? Whatever.Time to go for the juggular on this one, with no points invloved. The players are the same, and the minutes are the same. The Warriors own the Wizards to the tune of 6-3 ats in the last 9 games they have hooked up. I actually watched the Wizards play and believe me when I say that they have no live bodies around the rim and offer little or no resistance around the cup. Not good when you have a wave after wave of salmon swimming upstream. If I wake up in the morning and the Warriors are still underdogs i am taking the moneyline and rocking this game that way. They will not stop shooting against an inferior opponent, trust me on that.

Alrighty then, on we move to New York, where the Cavs settle in to face the Knicks in a battle for LeBron's services. Just kidding, but New York is last in the world in defense, and we all know how LeBron likes to show out in Gotham City. The Knicks give up (get this) 107.6 points per game on average at home. No need in bothering with a side in this one as with a total of 213 and a spread of 7 for Cleveland, I am estimating that their team total will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 106.5, which falls neatly under what the Knicks give up on average anyway. Zach Randolph was their only defensive presence under the glass, and guess what folks? He is gone now, leaving David Lee to man the middle. I can't stop laughing about this one. Let me get my composure. Okay, whew! David Lee is all of 6 feet 9 inches. LeBron is 6 feet 8. Ziggy is 7 feet 3 inches tall. Oh my... I don't usually do prop bets but i can't help but take off on this one and take the Cavs team total to go over 106.5 or whatever, as they will get to the bucket with absolutely no resistance. It already doesn't help that D'Antoni is telling his team to shoot with no less than 12 seconds left on the clock a la Phoenix. Who the heck is gonna rebound with those trees from Cleveland taking up the paint? Christmas comes early boys and girls. Even the Missus is getting in on this one.


Alrighty, boys New Jersey will get it done against the Lakers as they continue to get 2007 New England Patriot sized lines in each and every game as the linesmaker is attempting to get all of that early season money back. You can arleady tell the effects of these spreads as the Lakers failed to cover against the Kings. And just look at this, the Nets are 4-2 ats in their last 6 games in Tinsletown, and have not gotten this many points (13.5) since prior to 1994 (that is as far back as my search engine could go) playing in Los Angeles. Obviously the Lakers fall into our 3 or more wins category, so we have to fade them until the linesmaker gets his back and then begins to lower their spreads in response to the public starting to fade them once everybody catches on that they are getting big stupid ass lines. We will be part of the parade, and not on the sideline spectating and ride these fading corrections until the covering adjustment comes.

Warriors+ whatever or -whatever
Cleveland Cavaliers team total to go over 106.5 (projected)
New Jersey+ a thousand points

[johnnymapalo]

Man, I'm about to go into my savings and put all of it on Cleveland moneyline and the 7 point spread. This is gonna be a massacre. DanAntoni coach teams never play defense and the Knicks are in dissarray after the trade.. Easy money..

[BrandonLaz]

I like your write up for the lines on Tuesday agree with all the picks. I do like the Cavs -7 more than even the team total going over 106.5. One question is Harrington playing do we know yet?

[nick2060]

http://www.nba.com/knicks/news/nykclepre081125.html

That article says harrington, thomas n mobley are all expected to play. Tim thomas is a tall mofo, eitherway i just don't think its going to be as easy as you guys think for cleveland to march in there and kick some ass

[cocknocker]

nick2060,

Why don't you think the Cavs will get to the rim at will? Between Harrington, Thomas and Mobley they have 1 block combined in their last 6 games? Guess who the magic man was? On 11/17 by Cuttino Mobley. David Lee has only 2 in his last 6 games. Alright now, once again, who is going to stop LeBron from going to the hole at will? Certainly not any of those guys. And Lee i the starting center for the Knicks incidently. And moreover than that none of those guys are defensive first teamers, which is what it would take for someone to have a reasonable chance at stopping LeBron. Mobley is what 40 years old or somethin'. The Knicks were already bad at defense. These moves definitely did NOT make them better at defense. All that it did was shore up their offense. Which I am not arguing. But a good offense by the opposition won't stop the Cavs from killing the bucket on their end. Mo Williams, Boobie and company will have a field day with the New York sieve defense.

Mind you I am not picking Cleveland to win by the spread or anything. i am saying I am sure that they will meet the New York average of points surrendered to the opposition. New York has not had enough time to mix in those new players yet with a scheme that took the team a whole preseason to learn. Now you have new plaers added to that same scheme? Mass confusion at it's best. The jjewel in the crown was Zach Randolph, and he is now gone. HE was the anchor for the New York defense and they did nothing with the new pick ups to shore up that hole in the middle. Although I must admit...that is a lot of points for the Cavs to be favored by on a foreign court where they have not covered a spread of this size since i can remember

[l7ustin]

I have a bad gut feeling about this Cleveland game although I definitely like them here. Everything says ROUTE to me. New players usually means poor chemistry. Cavs play good D. Something just seems off. Might bet it tomorrow but usually I place my bets right now and nothing screams bet me bet me at the moment

[The_Kid]

http://www.nba.com/knicks/news/nykclepre081125.html

That article says harrington, thomas n mobley are all expected to play. Tim thomas is a tall mofo, eitherway i just don't think its going to be as easy as you guys think for cleveland to march in there and kick some ass

I disagree. You need a collective defensive effort to keep Lebron on the perimeter and force him out of the paint. The Knicks have NO defense - collectively or individually - whatsoever. I'm guessing LBJ will have a couple TOP 10 nominee plays on Sportscenter tomorrow night. Anyone that TRIES to get in his way will be absolutely destroyed!

Mobley is not quick enough, strong enough, or tall enough to guard Lebron. Thomas/Harrington are pretty much the same players. They stay on the perimeter and shoot 3s on the offensive end and they aren't really known for their defense either. Lebron will absolutely have his will against these guys. I don't think it really matters if these guys play or not.

[jalein]

damn that chit is like science. the write up was superb!

[wangichu]

hate to say it, but i'm playing the bad guys in WAS/GS tomorrow.

1) the majority of the times i can remember a spread that opened with one team favored and then, via a swift public beating, switched favorites, normally the team that was favored first wins. WAS opened as favorites, GS is now favored by 1.5 and probably rising, making a play on them less favorable anyways.

2) Why the hell was WAS ever favored in the first place? Everyone should be a favorite anywhere against WAS. The books knew that you could get the public to fade the wiz against a college team if they were catching points. The obligatory, "something's fishy" line is here imho.

3) I like the wiz here anyways as they are a good jump shooting team. I watched the game they played the warriors in GS last year and they like that golden state style of jumpshooting wars (almost winning outright there, with a fairly injury plagued lineup that saw caron butler on the bench) and I even saw them looking like that's how they wanted to play against houston, well they're hungrier than golden state, and i'll take mcgee and blatche over biedrins and turiaf personally and they're the home team to boot. I expect them sneak this one out against a warrior team who lost it's leader (baron davis, not al harrington) and is waiting for that trade to settle in, minute mixing with crawford.

I think the loss of eddie jordan will more or less be a non-factor. His assistants are going to have them doing the same stuff and they aren't going to care less about getting a second win just because they have someone else talking to them at the timeouts. Even if it does somehow matter, i feel better with GS's trade and linguering effects until that settles in.

WAS +1.5 (or more)

the only other thing that really jumps out at me is that i think dallas will handle their business against the pacers, but i need to see a line before i feel comfortable calling that a play.

as for the lakers, the public agrees with you CK ... something 75-25 and still no movement... i've been thinking about taking the lakers any time the public fades them, feeling that this normally means the books tricked people (unless i'm wrong in which case they'd be tricking me)... no play on that yet though

[vassman86]

anyone have thoughts about phoenix vs oklahoma city? line is suns -10, total is 198.5

i'm leaning toward OC to cover this spread

[BiggDogg5n2]

BOL....Nice write ups....Thanks....Dogg

[cocknocker]

Nice points Wang.

Man you just can't stop those CK Mafia types. That's solid handicapping, win, lose or draw. You've got to know that the referees will be on the side of the Wizzleskins in an attempt to slow down the sprint to the counter after the game is over. But basketball is a game of synergy, and the Warriors synergy was undisturbed by the trade for Crawford, as he is not going to become a starter in Don Nelson's system for quite some time. It takes a minute to learn his offense, but once Crawford does, he is exactly what the Warriors look for in a player. Neither one of these teams plays any defense whatsoever. I am more than qualified to speak on behalf of the Warriors as they are the local team. Their main focal point on defense is the steal and transition. They get occasional blocks, but they are an ofensive juggernaut, plain and simple.

Can the Wizzleskins keep up? I doubt it. Their only hope is Caron Butler, Jamison, and Stevenson. The Wizards are not going to get good on defense overnight, trust that. Etan Thomas is primed for retirement and has no business on an NBA roster. The kid McGee has some promise, but no low post moves to speak of, only the occasional allee-oop. He seriously needs to geton the horn with Kareem pay the $65 thousand and go to the professional big man camp.

One thing not spoken on is the dissention in the locker room of the Wizards. Deshawn Stevenson is a cancer on the team disgruntled as Nick Young is intruding upon his minutes, McGee feels that Thomas is taking practice too seriously and is paying him like he is a stranger, and Butler feels that his teammates are chucking up inappropriate shots, but to his credit he only made one statement and left it alone.

Stevenson on the other hand is a cancer and must be traded. A seriously bad rumor is going on in the DC area amongst young Black females (some that are very close to my sister who is in Virginia also spoke on it)from the region that Stevenson and Antonio Daniels were shall we say on the low, and now are no longer a hot item, which makes for an even stranger dynamic in a locker room. Some of these same ladies are even questioning Jamison, too. Just type the words Antawn Jamison marriage on google and you will see strange things in connection with his name....

Enough about the Wizzleskins locker room. Although Biedrins is a phenominal rebounding machine (1st in the NBA and 1st in offensive rebounds) he is an overall fantasy league stat filler averaging over one block per game as well as a stel per game.

Wang, the Warriors are favored in this game for good reason. They are the superior team and they should not have been catching points in the first place. Golden State is 4-1 ats against Atlantic division teams. That has to stand for something

[Alex68]

Hi CK, what do u think about the over for GS game at 207?

[cocknocker]

Well, we don't know what kind of game plan the new coach for the Wizards will have them playing, so it's not safe. He may go for half court sets to try and slow down the Warriors fast break. So I would not recommend wagering on the unknown in this game. What we do know is that the Warriors will be jacking up the threes on their part. If they start falling...

[2qwik]

I am going with the Nets +13.5. I am scared of the likes of people like Vujacic who still want to score at will at the end even when they are up a good amount. Carter and Harris are not going to let down especially when they are playing against Kobe. Lopez can hang with Gasol/Bynum and Yi will have a descent game and hopefully will pull a defender out to guard him which will help the nets rebound better.

Nets +13.5 it is.

[Alex68]

Thanks CK, I still can't get my avatar to display on my post.

[cocknocker]

The team total for the Cavs is 110, and I am gladly taking it to the bank. As stated, the Knicks put a premium on possessions in a game, and they have the highest total number of possessions between them and the opposition in the league. With no shotblocker and very few good on the ball defenders, I look for LeBron to end up on Sportscenter later on tonight with monster replays and guerilla dunks. Dick Enberg will be saying "Oh my!"

[cocknocker]

jalein,

If it wouldn't be asking too much, please give a quick tutorial on how to display an avatar for those who are not in the know. Thank you in advance for your attention to this matter. BTW, now that we have Yoda on our side, we can't go wrong!

[pronk]

Strong play @5.45 PM EST: Cornell -5.5.

[cocknocker]

Why not? I'll throw some duckies on it, pronk!

[nick2060]

i was about to jump on it but do you know why the line opened at -6 and is now -5 or -5.5 when everybody seems on cornell? This eastern michigan team looks like doodoo

[BigMoneyMan]

OK heres what I like today. Washington 1st half, Oklahoma City and NJ. I really think Washington may win but I just don't trust there D. This team seems to always fade in the 4th but I think they are going to come out hot. Since CK is also on NJ I may double the bet on that one. GL as always

[cocknocker]

Don't over think it, nick2060, just throw a couple a dollars on it. Make it a fun bet. I like Cornell in the 1st half. Eastern Michigan looks to have a roster full of youngsters, while Cornell has a lot of returning starters. I took them for the 1st half -3, and then i will double up at the half. A small bet on both.

Biggie and I have noticed the Wizzleskins are always up at the break. So after talking it over, i have been convinced to take the Wizzleskins in th 1st half. They always fade horribly in the second halves of games, and that would be the time to take the Warriors again, as they will be down by 6 at the break, get yelled at by Don Nelson at the half, and then come out and burn up the court. They have lost two straight games to the Bulls and Philly. He will be pissed off.

Small bet on the Wizzleskins 1st half. The Warriors are too good to lose the game though

[nick2060]

well you know i respect your opinion so goodluck, but i won 2 soccer wagers so im jus gonna put a little bit of that money on eastern michigan and see how it plays out, catch you guys later closer to nba to see whats up

[chipper8888]

Wizards it is follwed by a Nets night cap
GL all
Jaelin chop chop with that avatar tutorial please my man

[maddogmadden86]

ck so you think it would be wise to do wizards first half and warriors for game then see what the second half tells to see if we should go warriors 2nd half?

[maddogmadden86]

also big money what makes u play oklahoma city i cant see anyone on that team stopping amare

[bumppinee]

i'm with ck the warrior out right win this one by at least 5, i got them -2 for 1unit, also have the suns to rout the thunders, they have been beaten by double digits there last 5 games can someone say garbage move back to Seattle.

[cocknocker]

maddog, yes, the moneyline for the Wizards first half is even money. Everyone who knows me knows that i love any even money wager where there is no vigorish involved. I say that the Wizzles get put fast and take the lead into the half, only to give it away at the end to the Warriors because they don't hold leads very well. We can then take the Warrios in the 2nd half if they are down by a couple. I have the number at 6 ponts tht they will be down by at the break. They are a notorious second half team, and the Wizards are the exact opposite. They give it away in the 2nd half.

Got a push on Cornell in the 1st half, so I chickened out on the 2nd half. I felt it was a sign of things to come.

[showtime2000]

Good evening Boys. CK, as usual lookin good!

Withya on wizz at the half and nets for the night cap. Wiz should be pumped for the new coach. Too boot, GS playing last night. LEt's getem!

[jalein]

I got a piece of the TT Cavs at 110 too! Cant wait to call my book AGAIN tomorrow!

The avatar issue was gratin me nerves....I was lost, but now I see. I am feelin it now that I can see me Yoda lightning bolts fixin to toast someone's ass. LOL!

For any avatar-LESS posters interested in getting your avatar.....
Go to the top of the page
Find UserCP and click it
Then click on edit avatar
Then follow instructions.

[pronk]

67-54 Cornell

[maddogmadden86]

CK u still on cavs over 110 even with harrington adn thomas playing?

[maddogmadden86]

congrats pronk u playing anything in the nba tonight?

[nick2060]

thanks for the avatar tip