NBA Road Favorites system

sbrhgary · 12-01-12, 08:49 PM

Another winner. I'm also holding back, but ready to up the units.
Keep up the good work.

meader99 · 12-01-12, 09:01 PM

Nice little system you've found here.

thunderous · 12-01-12, 09:08 PM

3-0 following this system since yesterday......hope this continues!! Thanks!!

leo2302 · 12-01-12, 09:25 PM

You're welcome everyone... would love some points or nominations if you guys like this... I've tailed many here before and happy to finally be able to contribute.

No plays tomorrow, but already looking forward to next week. Enjoy your Sunday!

16johnnymac · 12-01-12, 11:12 PM

Bro way to go juiced it up to 100 a play heading up to 2.5 units thank you made my day I am treading lightly and I am taking one day at time keep up the good job $$$$$$$ in da bank

Originally posted by leo2302

You're welcome everyone... would love some points or nominations if you guys like this... I've tailed many here before and happy to finally be able to contribute.

No plays tomorrow, but already looking forward to next week. Enjoy your Sunday!

RatMAn2787 · 12-03-12, 10:47 AM

Leo wasn't too sure about this system the first time I read it, but seems to be working. 3-0 since I began tailing you. One question I have is that I have yet to have to double up on the 2H of a game, does this 2H bet usually win at a high %? Just trying to figure out if I should just cut loses after the original bet loses.

sbrhgary · 12-03-12, 11:06 AM

Looks like only bucks game fits the system tonight.

password · 12-03-12, 11:09 AM

Yeah but Hornets are below .300

Leo, do we have a play on the Bucks tonight?

leo2302 · 12-03-12, 12:22 PM

One play today:
Milwaukee Bucks 1Q -1

Past years, the 2H bets did have a very high winning %. Up to you if you want to double down, but I've been very successful in the past with this system.

-----------------------
1Q: 7-1
2nd HALF: 1-0
YTD: 8-0
UNITS: +8

GhostNL · 12-03-12, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by leo2302

Past years, the 2H bets did have a very high winning %. Up to you if you want to double down, but I've been very successful in the past with this system.

So Leo can I also bet the 2nd half before the match starts? I live in Europe and because of the time difference I'm usually asleep before most 1st quarters finish. But if the winning % is good I can place both bets right?

Thanks already for the units I made because of you

leo2302 · 12-03-12, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by GhostNL

[/B][/B][/B]
So Leo can I also bet the 2nd half before the match starts? I live in Europe and because of the time difference I'm usually asleep before most 1st quarters finish. But if the winning % is good I can place both bets right?

Thanks already for the units I made because of you

I don't believe you can bet the 2nd Half before the game starts... plus you wouldn't want to, as if they win the 1st Q, you wouldn't bet the 2nd Half. It's only if they lose the 1Q.

If anything, I would just stick to the 1Q bet if you can't double down on the 2H.

GhostNL · 12-03-12, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by leo2302

I don't believe you can bet the 2nd Half before the game starts... plus you wouldn't want to, as if they win the 1st Q, you wouldn't bet the 2nd Half. It's only if they lose the 1Q.

If anything, I would just stick to the 1Q bet if you can't double down on the 2H.

Ok man, thanks

Probably gonna have to set the alarm if I'm gonna play with more cash haha.

PS Your system rocks !

16johnnymac · 12-03-12, 01:52 PM

You can but all 4 qtrs usually are posted closer to game time

Originally posted by GhostNL

[/B][/B][/B]
So Leo can I also bet the 2nd half before the match starts? I live in Europe and because of the time difference I'm usually asleep before most 1st quarters finish. But if the winning % is good I can place both bets right?

Thanks already for the units I made because of you

16johnnymac · 12-03-12, 01:53 PM

Forget my 3 & 4th qtr bets makes no sense sorry

blanco · 12-03-12, 08:23 PM

Lopez already out in foul trouble and the bucks in the bonus with 6:00 left in the quarter. this bodes will for the bucks

blanco · 12-03-12, 08:35 PM

jynx

brigade125 · 12-03-12, 09:10 PM

Got -4 2nd half ...lets go buck

leo2302 · 12-03-12, 09:10 PM

Milwaukee Bucks 2nd Half -4

brigade125 · 12-03-12, 10:08 PM

The bucks lost every qtr...we will get it next time

leo2302 · 12-03-12, 10:28 PM

well... we suffered our first system loss. No worries... we got some good matchups coming up this week.

-----------------------
1Q: 7-2
2nd HALF: 1-1
YTD: 8-1
UNITS: +4.7

yankeefan1024 · 12-03-12, 11:30 PM

it's fine! still believe in your system!

yankeefan1024 · 12-03-12, 11:31 PM

I've gone 2 or 3 wins and just 1 loss with it so far so thanks for the system and I look forward to more W's!

Riceboi · 12-03-12, 11:57 PM

your 1st Q win % is unreal. Keep it up.

leo2302 · 12-04-12, 01:04 PM

Alright... let's go back to our winning ways today:

Miami Heat 1st Quarter -3

-----------------------
1Q: 7-2
2nd HALF: 1-1
YTD: 8-1
UNITS: +4.7

GhostNL · 12-04-12, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by leo2302

Alright... let's go back to our winning ways today:

Miami Heat 1st Quarter -3

-----------------------
1Q: 7-2
2nd HALF: 1-1
YTD: 8-1
UNITS: +4.7

Leo isn't the wizards winning % under .300? Or did I interpret the rules of the system wrong?

leo2302 · 12-04-12, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by GhostNL

Leo isn't the wizards winning % under .300? Or did I interpret the rules of the system wrong?

yes, but the rule says:

bet on road favorites at least 16% higher win percentage than opponents as long as they have an over .500 winning record (which Miami does)
UNLESS opponents are horrible (.300 or less).

So as an example, if MIA had .460 record and WASH had .300, then it would be a play

But if MIA had .480 record and WASH had .320, event though it's 16% difference, it would not be a play, since MIA is not over .500 winning record.

Does that make sense?

BlueDreams · 12-04-12, 02:20 PM

Love what you are doing!! Just wondering why doesn't OKC fit in this system? When you calc the winning percentage for road favorite are you looking at the first quarts of all their games or just on the road and for the home underdog, is it for all their 1q or just at home?

thunderous · 12-04-12, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by leo2302

yes, but the rule says:

bet on road favorites at least 16% higher win percentage than opponents as long as they have an over .500 winning record (which Miami does)
UNLESS opponents are horrible (.300 or less).

So as an example, if MIA had .460 record and WASH had .300, then it would be a play

But if MIA had .480 record and WASH had .320, event though it's 16% difference, it would not be a play, since MIA is not over .500 winning record.

Does that make sense?

Aren't the Wizards under .300 and hence a no play?

GhostNL · 12-04-12, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by thunderous

Aren't the Wizards under .300 and hence a no play?

My point right here!

leo2302 · 12-04-12, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by BlueDreams

Love what you are doing!! Just wondering why doesn't OKC fit in this system? When you calc the winning percentage for road favorite are you looking at the first quarts of all their games or just on the road and for the home underdog, is it for all their 1q or just at home?

OKC record = 0.778
BKLYN record = 0.688

0.778 - 0.688 = 0.09 ... does not meet the minimum .16 threshold.

Originally posted by thunderous

Aren't the Wizards under .300 and hence a no play?

That part only comes into play if the road favorite is under .500

So if road favorite is .490 and home dog is .310, even though it's more than 16% difference, it would not be a play. Only a play if road favorite is over .500 UNLESS the home dog is .300 or below. Then the road favorite could be under .500

So in this case, Miami is a play since they are over .500

Riceboi · 12-04-12, 03:06 PM

The method you use makes it hard to backtest, but it seems the average spreads are like 7-13+ for the road fav depending on the teams. What are the average full game spreads for your picks? I know it won't be the 16% thing, but if there is a correlation to the spread it can be backtested in a way. Hope this makes sense.

GhostNL · 12-04-12, 03:06 PM

Cool man, got it now

Thanks for the quick response!
Placed the bet

BOL!

RatMAn2787 · 12-04-12, 03:34 PM

Think I may sit this one out and jump on Miami 2nd half if the game is close at the half. They seem to get off to a slow start and pick it up late. GL leo

thunderous · 12-04-12, 04:49 PM

Got it now...u mean to say if the road fav is under .500 then its only a play if the opp is garbage?

16johnnymac · 12-04-12, 05:07 PM

This is the correct play Miami is now -3 1/2

UOTE=leo2302;17006250]Alright... let's go back to our winning ways today:

Miami Heat 1st Quarter -3

-----------------------
1Q: 7-2
2nd HALF: 1-1
YTD: 8-1
UNITS: +4.7[/QUOTE]