NBA Road Favorites system

[leo2302]

Got it now...u mean to say if the road fav is under .500 then its only a play if the opp is garbage?

exactly

[yankeefan1024]

Leo, would you mind me asking how you go about doing your backtesting? I'm interested in potentially running some backtests of my own, I just don't know where to begin really or what to do! How'd you end up with the system we're currently playing here?

[leo2302]

Leo, would you mind me asking how you go about doing your backtesting? I'm interested in potentially running some backtests of my own, I just don't know where to begin really or what to do! How'd you end up with the system we're currently playing here?

I borrowed it from a paid forum I used to belong to... it'll be hard to backtest seeing that we use 1Q lines and not sure of where you could find those lines from the past. The last year I played it religiously (2007), the system stats were:

65-11 (Successes-Failures)
46-28 (1st Quarter Plays)
19-11 (2nd Half Plays)

[yankeefan1024]

Leo, that's awesome! With that success rate, why not religiously play that every year?

[leo2302]

well, that was prior to the gov't banning online betting and didn't have a way to fund and was almost impossible for me to cash out, so I gave up on it. Just finally got an online account again and resuscitated the system

[leo2302]

Think I may sit this one out and jump on Miami 2nd half if the game is close at the half. They seem to get off to a slow start and pick it up late. GL leo

Looks like you were right... 2nd half will be in play. Will update at halftime

[StephenSmith]

Noob question...will 2nd half lines be posted at halftime or...?


edit: i'm with 5dimes

[blanco]

This may also be a good time to sit out the 2nd half as well. Publics gonna be slamming heat you won't get a good line

[Riceboi]

i got it at heat -10.5

[StephenSmith]

i got it at heat -10.5

Same here.

[brigade125]

wow.. 10,5.... i been burned to many times by the heat this season...im sitting this one out...

[leo2302]

hmmmm.. discouraging loss. The 2H bets are taking away the early profits. I'll keep tracking the plays, but may stick to 1Q bets oonly.

we'll get 'em tomorrow fellas

[blanco]

hmmmm.. discouraging loss. The 2H bets are taking away the early profits. I'll keep tracking the plays, but may stick to 1Q bets oonly.

we'll get 'em tomorrow fellas

Don't be discouraged by 2 in row, its only a little bit better than a coinflip. Don't let variance make you leave a good system. That being said, I think you can be a little bit selective with the 2H bets. But if you don't trust your judgement with them, I'd still stick to doing them all vs. stopping them all together.

[thunderous]

So we have 3 favorites tonight...Knicks, Lakers and Bulls. Which ones fall into the system?
I am sure Knicks has to be, not sure of the others.

[RatMAn2787]

This may also be a good time to sit out the 2nd half as well. Publics gonna be slamming heat you won't get a good line

Yeah this spread was way to big for 2H. Just avoided this game, Heat are playing like shit, especially defensivley but they will pick it up soon.

[leo2302]

Two plays today... let's get back to winning, eh?

Chicago Bulls 1st Quarter -½
New York Knicks 1st Quarter -2½

-----------------------
1Q: 7-3
2nd HALF: 1-2
YTD: 8-2
UNITS: +1.4

[yankeefan1024]

Leo,

why are we playing Bulls for the half?

[Avatar220]

Leo,


should we play Bulls 1st Quarter -0.5 or Bulls 1st Half -1½

[leo2302]

My mistake... I was copying and pasting... must have copied the wrong one. Should be Chicago Bulls 1st Quarter -½

[16johnnymac]

So please confirm these two plays

Thank you Johnny Mac

Two plays today... let's get back to winning, eh?

Chicago Bulls 1st Quarter -½
New York Knicks 1st Quarter -2½

-----------------------
1Q: 7-3
2nd HALF: 1-2
YTD: 8-2
UNITS: +1.4

[leo2302]

Yes, official plays for Wed:

Chicago Bulls 1st Quarter -½
New York Knicks 1st Quarter -2½

-----------------------
1Q: 7-3
2nd HALF: 1-2
YTD: 8-2
UNITS: +1.4

[leo2302]

For those of you interested, I'm also starting a NCAA BB thread here http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-baske...l#post17017832

[Avatar220]

damn knicks are not playing defense, the bobcats are running around them

[yankeefan1024]

Damn. Another loss, by 1/2 point. Faaaaaaack. If i lose the second half of this one, I'll be down 5 or 6 units now...

[thunderous]

INTERNET / -1

Ticket #: 11288613 Dec 05 07:05 PM

NBA

STRAIGHT BET [3503] 1Q NY KNICKS -2-115

100 / 86

0

PUSH PUSH

12/05/2012 11:02 AM

Guess I got lucky there...pushed my -2. But I have them -4 at the half which I don't feel good about....hope that hits

[leo2302]

New York Knicks 2nd Half -6*

[blanco]

don't like this one either

[leo2302]

For TRACKING PURPOSES ONLY, I will continue to post 2H plays. However, I recommend at this time only betting the 1st Q.

No plays today. Check out my other thread for NCAA BBALL plays later today.

-----------------------
1Q: 8-4
2nd HALF: 1-3
YTD: 9-3
UNITS: -0.9

[16johnnymac]

i noticed Sonnybaby was on the otherside of a 1st qtr bet and won we lost u should ask him what his criteria is for his 1st qtr bets and maybe it may be better "sonnybaby". Check it he replys to me if you have no luck


johnny mac

UOTE=leo2302;17027422]For TRACKING PURPOSES ONLY, I will continue to post 2H plays. However, I recommend at this time only betting the 1st Q.

No plays today. Check out my other thread for NCAA BBALL plays later today.

-----------------------
1Q: 8-4
2nd HALF: 1-3
YTD: 9-3
UNITS: -0.9[/QUOTE]

[leo2302]

Happy Friday everyone. Two plays tonight to right the ship:

Memphis Grizzlies 1st Quarter -2 vs New Orleans Hornets
Chicago Bulls 1st Quarter -½ vs Detroit Pistons

-----------------------
1Q: 8-4
2nd HALF: 1-3
YTD: 9-3
UNITS: -0.9

[thunderous]

Happy Friday everyone. Two plays tonight to right the ship:

Memphis Grizzlies 1st Quarter -2 vs New Orleans Hornets
Chicago Bulls 1st Quarter -½ vs Detroit Pistons

-----------------------
1Q: 8-4
2nd HALF: 1-3
YTD: 9-3
UNITS: -0.9

On it buddy! For some reason the quarter lines for grizzlies (and later) games not out where I play. Hoping it is -2 and not -2.5

[yankeefan1024]

Happy Friday everyone. Two plays tonight to right the ship:

Memphis Grizzlies 1st Quarter -2 vs New Orleans Hornets
Chicago Bulls 1st Quarter -½ vs Detroit Pistons



-----------------------
1Q: 8-4
2nd HALF: 1-3
YTD: 9-3
UNITS: -0.9

the line for memphis for me @ 5dimes is -4. Still play that game?....

[leo2302]

the line for memphis for me @ 5dimes is -4. Still play that game?....

for 1Q?? I wouldn't for 1Q. Too high. Either buy down or skip this play if I were you. Are you sure you're not looking at 1H?

[Dom177]

Is there a criteria for points scored per first quarter/points given up per first quarter? I tailed the other day on MIA -3 because I've been trying to follow along in the system. Obviously this one lost but looking at the stats the heat were only scoring just under 2 more points per 1st than the wizards. Just curious if there's a cut off to play any 1st quarter lines like only playing between -.5 and -3 or something along those lines?

[leo2302]

You may be onto something... I haven't looked at that, given that you'd think the stronger team (road favorite) comes out strong at the beginning to set the pace/tempo. But looking at points scored in 1Q may give us a higher % win. If you have those stats available, please feel free to post them so we can make better picks.