NBA Betting: The lid is on the basket
NBA Betting: The lid is on the basket
Mike D'Antoni has the New York Knicks finding the bucket with a league leading 105.7 points per game so far, almost 10 points better than their average a year ago. But the Knicks are in the minority as scoring has dropped overall in the NBA to open the 2008-09 season. Injuries are partly to blame for the drop among some teams such as San Antonio, while others have cashed Overs despite key players being out.
So much for Seven Seconds or Less.
The extreme offensive pace preferred by NBA coach Mike D’Antoni has followed him from Phoenix to New York, where the Knicks have improved from 96.9 to a league-leading 105.7 points per game. But while New York fills the basket, other teams are firing up airballs. There are only six teams scoring at least 100 points per game compared to 13 last year – when the freewheeling Golden State Warriors topped them all at 111.0 points.
With the drop in scoring, the Under has been a profitable play among NBA matchups this year at 76-69 (52.4 percent, Monday night games not included) despite 10 of those games going into overtime and producing nine overs. In some cases, injuries have been to blame – the Under is 6-3 for the hobbling San Antonio Spurs, who are in a pickle without Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. The Spurs are scoring 91.9 points per game (down from 95.4) and are 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS as a result.
But injuries can have the opposite effect on the betting odds. The aforementioned Warriors are very thin at point guard with Baron Davis moving to the Clippers and Monta Ellis (ankle) still two weeks away from even being able to practice. Golden State (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) has dropped to 104.4 points per game; however, that’s still the best in the West, and the Over is 7-3.
As with any sport, the outcome against the total is a relationship between the expectations of the betting public and a team’s actual performance. San Antonio remains one of the most publicly supported clubs in the NBA – market reports have only the Suns and Rockets drawing more action this year. Golden State is No. 16 on the public money list. Pundits assumed the worst after the Ellis injury, but Warriors coach Don Nelson is using swingman Stephen Jackson like a point forward, and Jackson is producing his highest-ever assist rate at 6.4 per 36 minutes.
Stat guru John Hollinger has pointed out another team that is adjusting to injury in a less conventional manner: the Sacramento Kings. Without leading scorer Kevin Martin (ankle), the Kings are playing swingman John Salmons at the 2-spot and going big in the frontcourt with 6-foot-11 rookie Jason Thompson at “small” forward. In this case, the under is 3-1 for the Martin-less Kings (4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS), including a 97-95 overtime loss to Phoenix (-3) that still managed to skim below the 203-point total. The over was 43-35-4 for Sacramento last year.
Bigger isn’t necessarily slower. Hollinger also noted the lineup Toronto unveiled in Miami on Sunday, with 7-footer Andrea Bargnani at the 3-spot in place of glue guy Jamario Moon. The Raptors (-3) had their biggest offensive output in a non-overtime game with a 107-96 victory, even with Jose Calderon (hamstring) out of commission. The over won this one to improve to 5-4 north of the border.
If you have the time and the inclination to look at each team as an individual case study, you’ll be better able to suss out which ones are better over or under candidates. But the theme for the early season remains the same: Watch out for falling bricks.
Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers (-12½)
Tuesday, Nov 18, 10:30 p.m. (ET) NBA-TV
The Lakers started the season as 5-2 favorites to win the championship that eluded them last year. They’ve already improved to 2-1 after winning their first seven games in a row, a streak that came to an end with Friday’s 106-95 loss to Detroit (+9.5). Los Angeles remains the hottest team at the pay window at 6-2 ATS.
Chicago is plugging away at 5-5 SU (6-4 ATS) and coming off two victories in a row over Dallas (-2) and Indiana (+5.5). Derrick Rose racked up 20 points and seven assists per game during the Bulls’ five-game homestand; they now embark on a seven-game road swing that will take them from L.A. to Philadelphia while the circus takes over the United Center. Chicago is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in away games thus far.
This is the first meeting of the year between the two clubs. The Lakers opened as 12½-point favorites with a total of 197½; the Under is 6-4 for Chicago and 4-4 for Los Angeles, but just 1-4 in L.A.’s last five contests.
Mike D'Antoni has the New York Knicks finding the bucket with a league leading 105.7 points per game so far, almost 10 points better than their average a year ago. But the Knicks are in the minority as scoring has dropped overall in the NBA to open the 2008-09 season. Injuries are partly to blame for the drop among some teams such as San Antonio, while others have cashed Overs despite key players being out.
So much for Seven Seconds or Less.
The extreme offensive pace preferred by NBA coach Mike D’Antoni has followed him from Phoenix to New York, where the Knicks have improved from 96.9 to a league-leading 105.7 points per game. But while New York fills the basket, other teams are firing up airballs. There are only six teams scoring at least 100 points per game compared to 13 last year – when the freewheeling Golden State Warriors topped them all at 111.0 points.
With the drop in scoring, the Under has been a profitable play among NBA matchups this year at 76-69 (52.4 percent, Monday night games not included) despite 10 of those games going into overtime and producing nine overs. In some cases, injuries have been to blame – the Under is 6-3 for the hobbling San Antonio Spurs, who are in a pickle without Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. The Spurs are scoring 91.9 points per game (down from 95.4) and are 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS as a result.
But injuries can have the opposite effect on the betting odds. The aforementioned Warriors are very thin at point guard with Baron Davis moving to the Clippers and Monta Ellis (ankle) still two weeks away from even being able to practice. Golden State (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) has dropped to 104.4 points per game; however, that’s still the best in the West, and the Over is 7-3.
As with any sport, the outcome against the total is a relationship between the expectations of the betting public and a team’s actual performance. San Antonio remains one of the most publicly supported clubs in the NBA – market reports have only the Suns and Rockets drawing more action this year. Golden State is No. 16 on the public money list. Pundits assumed the worst after the Ellis injury, but Warriors coach Don Nelson is using swingman Stephen Jackson like a point forward, and Jackson is producing his highest-ever assist rate at 6.4 per 36 minutes.
Stat guru John Hollinger has pointed out another team that is adjusting to injury in a less conventional manner: the Sacramento Kings. Without leading scorer Kevin Martin (ankle), the Kings are playing swingman John Salmons at the 2-spot and going big in the frontcourt with 6-foot-11 rookie Jason Thompson at “small” forward. In this case, the under is 3-1 for the Martin-less Kings (4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS), including a 97-95 overtime loss to Phoenix (-3) that still managed to skim below the 203-point total. The over was 43-35-4 for Sacramento last year.
Bigger isn’t necessarily slower. Hollinger also noted the lineup Toronto unveiled in Miami on Sunday, with 7-footer Andrea Bargnani at the 3-spot in place of glue guy Jamario Moon. The Raptors (-3) had their biggest offensive output in a non-overtime game with a 107-96 victory, even with Jose Calderon (hamstring) out of commission. The over won this one to improve to 5-4 north of the border.
If you have the time and the inclination to look at each team as an individual case study, you’ll be better able to suss out which ones are better over or under candidates. But the theme for the early season remains the same: Watch out for falling bricks.
Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers (-12½)
Tuesday, Nov 18, 10:30 p.m. (ET) NBA-TV
The Lakers started the season as 5-2 favorites to win the championship that eluded them last year. They’ve already improved to 2-1 after winning their first seven games in a row, a streak that came to an end with Friday’s 106-95 loss to Detroit (+9.5). Los Angeles remains the hottest team at the pay window at 6-2 ATS.
Chicago is plugging away at 5-5 SU (6-4 ATS) and coming off two victories in a row over Dallas (-2) and Indiana (+5.5). Derrick Rose racked up 20 points and seven assists per game during the Bulls’ five-game homestand; they now embark on a seven-game road swing that will take them from L.A. to Philadelphia while the circus takes over the United Center. Chicago is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in away games thus far.
This is the first meeting of the year between the two clubs. The Lakers opened as 12½-point favorites with a total of 197½; the Under is 6-4 for Chicago and 4-4 for Los Angeles, but just 1-4 in L.A.’s last five contests.