Testing/Tracking NBA Totals Model

[EricZ116]

I'm currently working on a model to predict NBA totals. Without delving too deep in to it, my backtesting of the 2010/2011 season (which I find to be more of an accurate comparison than last season) came up with results of 56% on totals betting every game. [note: this is not me attempting to cover up some sort of failure for last year, I simply haven't gotten a chance to log all of the totals. I figured the 1200+ from the year prior were statistically significant enough... though I'd love it if somebody could send me pinny's closing lines for last year]

I'm currently working on perfecting my formulas and finding what my proper "cutoff" should be, in order to cut down on bets/day and also to hone in on the "best bets".

As it stands right now, I've managed to cut it down to a point of testing where roughly 56% (not related to the prior 56%) of the games qualify. And playing those nets in a 61% win rate.

Now, I am not going guarantee either 56% or 61%, but I am fairly confident that this will be successful going forward.

In this preliminary phase, I will not be weighing certain bets over others (1 vs 3 units for example), simply because the numbers at the moment don't support it. If I find that as we go on, the correlation becomes strong enough, I'll do so. But for now, I will simply be keeping track of my record.

[EricZ116]

I missed the boat for the early games, and since this is a test run I'd like to just get the most amount of tests in as possible.

So for the remaining games tonight:

Under 191.5 DET/SAC
Under 199.5 CLE/GS
Under 203.5 SA/LAC

[EricZ116]

Tomorrow I will post leans for all games, and I'll dedicate a special section for filtered unders which through more back testing have been particularly successful.

[EricZ116]

1-2 on posted plays last night.

Filtered plays went 2-2, overall 8-5.

As for tonight's games, both would qualify for filtered unders at 190.5 and 201.5. I missed these numbers earlier, and hope they'll go back up at some point. Either way, the leans are under in both games.

[rumnblack]

You nearly got the Sac game, slowed down to a crawl 4th q

[EricZ116]

Yeah. Before the game I was worried because with two young teams like that there is always a chance that they start playing streetball trading jumpers, but the model supported a play.

At 190.5 right now im locking in the thunder and bulls.

[EricZ116]

And there it is. 201.5 locked in at 5Dimes.

OKC/CHI Under 190.5 (-108)
LAC/POR Under 201.5 (-105)

[EricZ116]

Anyone by any chance have an excel file in this format:

Home Team & Score - Away Team & Score - Closing Line (pinny would be nice)

I'd like this for last season if possible. I've manually gone through SBR odds for 800 games in 2010/2011 already and would like to avoid doing that again.

I'll send some points your way!

[EricZ116]

2-0 last night.

3-2 filtered plays

10-5 total.

[EricZ116]

Big night tonight, lots of potential plays.

At it stands now, these plays would be filtered.

Milwaukee/Washington under 189.5
Brooklyn/Orlando under 196.5
Houston/Memphis under 195
Charlotte/New Orleans over 181
Detroit/Oklahoma City under 198
Indiana/Minnesota under 182.5
San Antonio/Sacramento under 198
Utah/Denver under 199.5
Golden State/LA Lakers under 200.5

Yes, that's a lot of plays... And a lot of unders. Over my back testing, this model has generally favored unders fairly consistently, particularly on filtered plays. Also, over the course of the season I expect that we will be playing between 55-60% of all games. We'll adjust as needed, but I don't mind it as long as they are winning.

[EricZ116]

Updating for current lines:

Going to lock in:

MIL/WAS Under 192
BK/ORL Under 195
DET/OKC Under 197.5
IND/MIN Under 183.5
SA/SAC Under 198.5
Utah/Denver under 203

For any additional I'll look for some better lines.

[EricZ116]

Won't be available later, here are the other leans:

Philly/Boston under 179.5
Houston/Memphis under 194
Charlotte/New Orleans over 181.5
Cleveland/Phoenix under 200.5

[EricZ116]

Updating for current lines:

Going to lock in:

MIL/WAS Under 192 push
BK/ORL Under 195 win
DET/OKC Under 197.5 win
IND/MIN Under 183.5 loss
SA/SAC Under 198.5 win
Utah/Denver under 203 win

For any additional I'll look for some better lines.

4-1-1 posted plays.

Philly/Boston under 179.5 loss
Houston/Memphis under 194 win
Charlotte/New Orleans over 181.5 win
Cleveland/Phoenix under 200.5 loss

2-2 additional leans.

16-8-1 overall

7-3-1 filtered

[SlickRick1382]

Looking good thusfar

Good Luck going forward

[EricZ116]

Locked in filtered plays:

San Antonio/Portland under 196.5
Denver/Golden State under 202
Washington/Indiana under 183.5

Additional leans:

Dallas/Charlotte over 200
Detroit/Houston under 192 (need 1.5 pts)
Phoenix/Utah under 201
Boston/Milwaukee over 190.5 (need 2 more pts)
Philadelphia/Toronto under 187 (going to need 2 more pts here)

[EricZ116]

Going to lock in Dallas/Charlotte over 198.5.

[EricZ116]

Locking in
Phoenix/Utah under 203.5

[EricZ116]

I'm very hung over and have a 5 hour drive ahead of me, so I'll wrap up last night later.

Orlando/Brooklyn under 191 is a play
Cleveland/Oklahoma City under 203 is a play
Sacramento/LA Lakers under 191.5 is a play

ATL/LA is a play if under 199
Miami/Memphis over is a play at 193.5

[EricZ116]

Locked in filtered plays:

San Antonio/Portland under 196.5 loss
Denver/Golden State under 202 loss
Washington/Indiana under 183.5 win

Additional leans:

Dallas/Charlotte over 200 loss
Detroit/Houston under 192 (need 1.5 pts) win
Phoenix/Utah under 201 win
Boston/Milwaukee over 190.5 (need 2 more pts) no play
Philadelphia/Toronto under 187 (going to need 2 more pts here) win

Filtered plays:
2-3

Overall: 4-3

Total: 20-11
Filtered: 9-6

[sando]

Good luck with your model this season mate, play a few totals myself, tricky business...

[EricZ116]

Thanks man, this is my first season really delving in to the NBA. To be frank, I've always avoided it because I never liked the idea of betting a sport that was so volatile and relied so heavily upon the effort of 5 players at a time for a team.

I thought over/unders were more open to being "figured out", and hopefully I continue to be correct.

[EricZ116]

I'm very hung over and have a 5 hour drive ahead of me, so I'll wrap up last night later.

Orlando/Brooklyn under 191 is a play
Cleveland/Oklahoma City under 203 is a play
Sacramento/LA Lakers under 191.5 is a play

ATL/LA is a play if under 199
Miami/Memphis over is a play at 193.5

Full disclosure: bet was canceled by 5d, apparently this morning they had Kings vs Clippers. Got the line now at 192.

[EricZ116]

At work, will wrap up later.

Lots of plays close to my cutoffs, so let's get them in now.

Milwaukee under 188.5
OKC under 195.5
Denver under 202
Atlanta under 196

[EricZ116]

Miami/Houston under 196 is now a filtered play as well.

For the rest of the games:

Utah/Toronto lean under (is a play at 193.5)
Boston/Chicago lean over
Minnesota/Dallas lean under (is a play at 193)

[EricZ116]

Orlando/Brooklyn under 191 is a play win
Cleveland/Oklahoma City under 203 is a play win
Sacramento/LA Lakers under 192 is a play loss

ATL/LA is a play if under 199 win
Miami/Memphis over is a play at 193.5 no play

Total: 23-12
Filtered: 11-7

[impper]

looked in at the games and it seems that most of the ones moved your way. looks good.

would you mind talking about your system at all? what sort of factors you look at? i've been betting a lot more totals this year and having decent success; i'd be interested in hearing anything you have to say

[swingtrader]

Wow I think I am against you in almost every total you have tonight. That is scary because you have had a good run and I have had a ridiculous run so one of us will be having a bad night. GL either way bro. I like totals and I use the lines to make my picks but I don't have a computer model I just go with the ol' noggin. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

[EricZ116]

Without giving too much away, a key is that it zeros around the pace/tempos of the teams. To me, over/unders are publicly chosen based on the star power of the teams involved, but I find that when you look at how fast or slow the teams play, a truer representation presents itself.

[EricZ116]

Wow I think I am against you in almost every total you have tonight. That is scary because you have had a good run and I have had a ridiculous run so one of us will be having a bad night. GL either way bro. I like totals and I use the lines to make my picks but I don't have a computer model I just go with the ol' noggin. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

Congrats on your run... but I'll have to be blunt here and hope that you will be the one having a bad night - or have the best night possible as long as I don't lose any games

[EricZ116]

Also going forward, I'm going to avoid Laker games until I see how D'Antoni is going to change things. My gut feeling is that the team won't be able to change much since we are in a season, and we may see some inflated lines especially as ESPN continues to force feed the facts of D'antoni's previous teams and the 7 seconds or less... but I'll avoid them in the interim.

[impper]

ah, i see, eric.

i have a similar thought on how to do it, though i don't map it out too much. i like to look at pace and offensive/defensive efficiency of the teams, giving special weight to what i perceive to be the "better" team imposing their philosophy on the game.

i also think about bad offenses being choked by good defensive units, which i have been having a hot streak with

[EricZ116]

For the sake of being fully transparent, Utah/Toronto never got to the number I needed to make it a filtered play, though I will track it as an "overall" play.

Minn/Dallas same so far, still waiting for that 193 but not looking good.

[EricZ116]

Early plays:
Cleveland under 197
Portland under 195.5

Leans:
Knicks under 188.5 (is a play at 189)
Spurs under 194 (is a play at 195)

[EricZ116]

Spurs under locked in at 195.5.

[swingtrader]

Hey Eric. I actually pushed yesterday but since i went kinda hard on Dal o, and both teams shot sub 40% I lost about a unit or two.

I'm with you on the Sac/Por U. I think a lot of people think Sac is still run and gun but they have rested their caps on defense this year and Portland off a back to back should help the under.

I'm leaning over in Crookland but the numbers are just about right so I can't pull the trigger either way.

Here's what I have tonight:

Tor/Ind o
Por/Sac u
Was/Cha o-Scary line but I'm banking on Cha defense(or lack there of) to be a factor in tonight's game.

I'm leaning:
Crookland o
NYK o
Lal u

What do u think bro?