Testing/Tracking NBA Totals Model

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  • EricZ116
    SBR Sharp
    • 10-09-10
    • 493

    #36
    Yesterday was not a great day for me here either. I like the under in Crooklyn quite a bit. New York I'm on the verge I need another half point to make it a filtered play, but I'm loving Knicks unders right now. As a life long Knicks fan who watches each game, I'll tell you first hand that the offensive proficiency won't last. One of these days, they'll stop hitting the threes and go back to the iso Melo offense. I do think the defense and pace are here to stay with Woodson, though, and those are great signs for the under.

    Washington/Charlotte I'm predicting 189.5, and Toronto/Indi I'm actually right at the 185.5 number so not enough value in either to have a definitive stance for you.

    Wrapping up 11/12
    Filtered:
    Milwaukee under 188.5 loss
    OKC under 195.5 win
    Denver under 202 loss
    Atlanta under 196 win
    Miami/Houston under 196 loss

    Utah/Toronto lean under (is a play at 193.5) loss
    Boston/Chicago lean over win
    Minnesota/Dallas lean under (is a play at 193) win

    Overall 11/12: 4-4
    Filtered: 2-3

    Overall: 27-17
    Filtered: 13-9

    I actually don't mind the last few not so great days, because even they haven't been so bad. I think it's a good sign of things to come, even the bad days don't seem so bad at this point.
    Comment
    • EricZ116
      SBR Sharp
      • 10-09-10
      • 493

      #37
      Just to clean up for tonight's plays:

      Filtered locked in plays:
      Cleveland/Brooklyn under 197
      Portland/Sacramento under 195.5
      San Antonio/LA Lakers under 195.5

      Adding:
      Knicks/Magic under 188.5 -
      don't want to see this line get away from us, think it goes to 188 before it goes to 189.
      Comment
      • swingtrader
        SBR Sharp
        • 09-28-07
        • 382

        #38
        With the line movement in the NY game I have to take the under now as I see no value in the over anymore. I have been racking my brain all day about the lal and crooklyn games. I still like Crooklyn over but I am vexed about the Lakers. I should just hold off. D'antoni isn't with them yet and they are still gonna be in a state of flux.

        GL with your games tonight I hope we both hit well.
        Comment
        • EricZ116
          SBR Sharp
          • 10-09-10
          • 493

          #39
          Good day last night, will wrap up later.

          Early plays:

          Washington/Dallas under 192
          Indiana/Milwaukee under 188.5
          New Orleans/Houston under 187.5

          These are the tightest lines today that I've seen this year as far as variance from my model. The plays above I really can't afford to make them plays if they go any further down.

          Some additional leans:
          Under Memphis/okc
          Over Chicago/phoenix
          Under Atlanta/golden state
          Over Miami/la clippers
          Comment
          • EricZ116
            SBR Sharp
            • 10-09-10
            • 493

            #40
            Locking in Memphis under 195.5

            Would like another point for Charlotte over, Chicago over, and Miami over.

            Atlanta under will be a play at 192.
            Comment
            • EricZ116
              SBR Sharp
              • 10-09-10
              • 493

              #41
              Atlanta under 193 lock it in.
              Comment
              • EricZ116
                SBR Sharp
                • 10-09-10
                • 493

                #42
                Charlotte/Minnesota over 181.5


                lock them in.

                Other leans:
                Utah/Boston over 191.5 (189.5 is a play)
                Chicago/Phoenix over 191 (189 is a play)
                Miami/LA Clippers over 196.5 (would like 196)
                Comment
                • EricZ116
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 10-09-10
                  • 493

                  #43
                  Originally posted by EricZ116
                  Just to clean up for tonight's plays:

                  Filtered locked in plays:
                  Cleveland/Brooklyn under 197 loss
                  Portland/Sacramento under 195.5 win
                  San Antonio/LA Lakers under 195.5 win

                  Adding:
                  Knicks/Magic under 188.5 - don't want to see this line get away from us, think it goes to 188 before it goes to 189. win... thanks to the .5
                  Filtered: 3-1

                  Overall: 30-18
                  Filtered: 16-10

                  Hop on fellas...
                  Comment
                  • EricZ116
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 10-09-10
                    • 493

                    #44
                    Knicks spurs under 194
                    Comment
                    • Khhhh
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 03-12-10
                      • 34

                      #45
                      Very solid performance, the first thread I am checking every day.
                      Comment
                      • mosswoods21
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 10-25-12
                        • 307

                        #46
                        knicks/spurs under up to 196.5, better get on it!!!
                        Comment
                        • EricZ116
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 10-09-10
                          • 493

                          #47
                          Yep, filtered play at 196.5.

                          Brooklyn game is too close ATM, and I'm completely avoiding Denver home games.
                          Comment
                          • EricZ116
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 10-09-10
                            • 493

                            #48
                            Lot of tight lines today, and really busy at the office. Will try to post when I free up a bit.
                            Comment
                            • usfunca
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 10-26-12
                              • 251

                              #49
                              Doing well so far. Looks like I may have to pay attention to this thread!
                              Comment
                              • EricZ116
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 10-09-10
                                • 493

                                #50
                                Houston Portland under 197.5
                                Phoenix la lakers under 201

                                Atlanta sacramento will be a play but think well see 190 again let's wait for that.
                                Comment
                                • EricZ116
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 10-09-10
                                  • 493

                                  #51
                                  Atl under 190.5 lock it in
                                  Comment
                                  • EricZ116
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 10-09-10
                                    • 493

                                    #52
                                    Additional leans:

                                    GS/Minny under 186 (is a play at 187.5)
                                    NY/Memphis over 191.5 (is a play at 189.5)

                                    The rest are literally within .5 of my model which is unreal.
                                    Comment
                                    • mosswoods21
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 10-25-12
                                      • 307

                                      #53
                                      eric, what must a prediction have to make the play "filtered"?
                                      Comment
                                      • EricZ116
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 10-09-10
                                        • 493

                                        #54
                                        I like to see at least 3 points of variance from my model. I found that in my testing it was the best number for me to hit on around 60%.
                                        Comment
                                        • EricZ116
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 10-09-10
                                          • 493

                                          #55
                                          Early play:

                                          Denver/San Antonio under 200.5

                                          Leans:
                                          Memphis/Charlotte over (play at 190)
                                          Chicago/LA Clippers under (play at 196)
                                          Utah/Washington under (play at 191)
                                          Comment
                                          • EricZ116
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 10-09-10
                                            • 493

                                            #56
                                            Toronto/Boston over 187.5 is a play
                                            Comment
                                            • EricZ116
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 10-09-10
                                              • 493

                                              #57
                                              Brooklyn/Sacramento under 193
                                              Golden State/Oklahoma City under 199
                                              Houston/LA Lakers under 205.5
                                              Comment
                                              • EricZ116
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 10-09-10
                                                • 493

                                                #58
                                                Boston/Detroit over 189
                                                Comment
                                                • EricZ116
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 10-09-10
                                                  • 493

                                                  #59
                                                  Houston Utah under 197.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • EricZ116
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 10-09-10
                                                    • 493

                                                    #60
                                                    Indi Washington under 180.5
                                                    Comment
                                                    • EricZ116
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 10-09-10
                                                      • 493

                                                      #61
                                                      Clippers/Spurs under 199
                                                      Comment
                                                      • EricZ116
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 10-09-10
                                                        • 493

                                                        #62
                                                        Philly Cleveland over 183.5
                                                        Denver minn under 192
                                                        Comment
                                                        • EricZ116
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 10-09-10
                                                          • 493

                                                          #63
                                                          Cleveland/Orlando over 183.5
                                                          San Antonio/Indiana under 190
                                                          Sacramento/Utah under 194
                                                          Minnesota/Portland under 196
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ask
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 11-25-12
                                                            • 5

                                                            #64
                                                            Eric, I think you should backtest on a few more seasons. I myself have been working on a model in which I tested a specific method on 5 seasons back. The results varied from a win % of around 49-54.5%. So I guess 1200 games isn't representative.
                                                            Comment
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