JM take your 4th quarter bets to another thread PLEASE
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Count that as a normal win!-3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers
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If you count this as a win then the loss by the beggining of the season that stifler won should be counted as a loss at the same time.I personnaly think that the graph show we got too numerous playing the system as the success increased.Originally posted by Grinder12000Comment -
True - if you can point me to that one . . . . . it should always be the closing line. I won that last night - I also took out all "extra" plays.
December 8th
PERSONALLY - and this is not against Stiffler but more learning about the system, I don't like the numerous double plays where two systems are in agreement. Really crushes fluctuation. I think if Stiff could have less teams on multiple systems that might work out a little better.(C Bet) GS fade: Detroit -1 1,10u | Brooklyn -6 2,31u |Washington +4,5 4,85u
Washington covered by 1/2 while many, including me pushed with +4 . Covers.com line was +4.5 and covered by 1/2.
We then went on to lose the new "C" game vs. Charlotte on the 10th and then the "D" game vs. Miami.
On a side note - Stiffler - no worries dude. We/I appreciate the work and from personal experience on giving out picks -I would rather lose MY money then have others lose theirs. Just slap on the ass from me and keep your head up.
S4D 1-1
S1C 7-1
S3C 0-0Comment -
so is this the right time to bet the d bet sac fade? dallas-10 ???Comment -
Why use Covers now? You've been completely disregarding the closing line until this point. What about the loss earlier this year that was Covers official but you didn't count it because your personal line won??? Not trying to be disrespectful and I thank you for the picks but, you need to pick a side here...Originally posted by StiflerComment -
Wow nice lines today
Pacers -10
Mavs - 10
Cavs + 6Comment -
i listed the lost amount, whats the problem?Originally posted by thelimit0310Comment -
13.02.2013
S1
(C Bet) Ind: Indiana -7 2,20u | Indiana -8 3,52u | Indiana -waiting...
S2
(C Bet) Cle: Cleveland +6 1,10u | Cleveland -6,5 2,31u | Cleveland - waiting...
(A Bet) Utah fade: Minnesota - waiting...
S3
(C Bet) Ind: Indiana -7 2,20u | Indiana -8 3,52u | Indiana - waiting...
S4
(D Bet) Sac fade: Utah +1,5 1,10u | Hou -6 2,31u | Mem -8,5 4,85u| Dallas -10 10,19u
________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
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You are doing new A plays ? Even if the All-star weekend is comming?Comment -
After the Denver closing lines, what do you think its better? wait for the last momment and bet with the closing line or place it asap?Comment -
1-0! OKC wasnt a play. They were not down by 10 or more after the 3rd.Originally posted by J.M. DiscipleComment -
betting the closing line strictly follows the the system, cause i backtested the lines on covers. I doubt u will also get the exact closing line, even if u bet the games right before the game starts. Still its not a smart move at all...i prefer beating the closing line. Situations like last night may happen, but it also happens that u finish off a series with a better line.Originally posted by Alwarrete
the allstar break didnt had an impact during the backtest, so yes im crazy enough to start new A bets.You are doing new A plays ? Even if the All-star weekend is comming?Comment -
Why dont you post these plays in the correct thread?Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
Doesnt matter that much to me personally, just would seem to make more sense. It would be easier to track as well as easier for people to follow and learn the rules.Comment -
+wait for the last momment and bet with the closing line or place it asap?
As a VERY VERY basic strategy - favorites do tend to gather momentum so wait for the dogs and get the favorites early. HOWEVER - that is not always the case. Go to the top of this site and look at the LIVE ODDS. getting the best line is an art. The more you work at it the better you get. I've been beating stiffler half the time but when he can get in early he beats me. I lost some early games on this chase just because I was not good at getting the best line.
A friend of mine that did the I'M OUT thing asked what went wrong. My theory is not really anything. It's not like the games are close we we have been getting clobbered. If the books can't even get the lines close a system will have problems.Comment -
So, thoughts on going all in fading sac (playing it as a D and E) -- I mean, we're at 3 in a row D losses now right? Can we really end up with 4 in a row?Comment -
I think ill make a play on it.Originally posted by noveggies
Ill bet 5 more units on it.Comment -
thats IMPOSSIBLE, we are doint sports betting here. If one thing is for sure - we can not lose 4 D bets in a row...Originally posted by noveggies
dont overreact now...still its ur decision.Comment -
- all lines updated.
13.02.2013
S1
(C Bet) Ind: Indiana -7 2,20u | Indiana -8 3,52u | Indiana -10,5 7,39u
S2
(C Bet) Cle: Cleveland +6 1,10u | Cleveland -6,5 2,31u | Cleveland +7 4,85u
(A Bet) Utah fade: Minnesota -2,5 1,10u
S3
(C Bet) Ind: Indiana -7 2,20u | Indiana -8 3,52u | Indiana -10,5 7,39u
S4
(D Bet) Sac fade: Utah +1,5 1,10u | Hou -6 2,31u | Mem -8,5 4,85u| Dallas -10 10,19u
________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
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Originally Posted by noveggies
So, thoughts on going all in fading sac (playing it as a D and E) -- I mean, we're at 3 in a row D losses now right? Can we really end up with 4 in a row?
thats IMPOSSIBLE, we are doint sports betting here. If one thing is for sure - we can not lose 4 D bets in a row...
dont overreact now...still its ur decision.
Hey Stiffy, don't jinx us. Its called gambling for a reason and 4 is a possibility. Hopefully not but it could happen.Comment -
Why is the C bet on indiana only 4,85 units ?Comment -
Because that is the stake for a C bet if you are going for 1 unit.Originally posted by RVPComment -
i was ironical!Originally posted by billyboy44Hey Stiffy, don't jinx us. Its called gambling for a reason and 4 is a possibility. Hopefully not but it could happen.
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We have not even lost 3 in a row - why are we talking about 4 in a row??
BTW - I'm analyzing WHY the Chase has sucked lately.Comment -
Yea i know. But when the A and B bet is lose of 5,72 total the C bet schould be 7,38 to win 1 unit.Originally posted by KelloggsComment -
Stifler isnt a machineOriginally posted by RVPComment -
edited, thx.Originally posted by RVPComment -
Fun with numbers - While losing 4 "D" bets in a row is really not that rare and should happen 1 out of 84 "D" games - the REAL mind bender is that in order to lose four "D" bets in a row you have to lose 16 games which is 1 out of 588,235 times so you would have to play 9,411,740 games to have that happen ONCE.
BTW - we have only lost 2 in a row.Comment -
I dont think how many D bets are lost in a row matters (sorry for this shitt english, not even me understand this xD)
What i think matters is how many A, B or C bets we win before we lose a D one. Thats the point imo.Comment -
West is a game time decision for Indiana.Comment -
That mean the line will go downnnnnnnnnnnnOriginally posted by OFSComment -
Actually there is a huge difference between a "D" win and a "D" loss because of a non-push if you are using Covers closing line. You pushed it while Covers made it a 1/2 point loss (as did most of us). Then we lost the next 3 while you lost 3 and won the last - told you it would come back to bite you! :-) Originally Posted by thelimit0310
Why use Covers now? You've been completely disregarding the closing line until this point. What about the loss earlier this year that was Covers official but you didn't count it because your personal line won??? Not trying to be disrespectful and I thank you for the picks but, you need to pick a side here...
i listed the lost amount, whats the problem?Comment -
Originally posted by wade1Originally posted by dlunc3Why dont you post these plays in the correct thread?
Doesnt matter that much to me personally, just would seem to make more sense. It would be easier to track as well as easier for people to follow and learn the rules.
Why is it a problem with me posting 4th quarter bets in this thread? For one, stiffler is the one who brought it into this thread to help everyone make more money. 2) That link is for last years thread. 3) This system has been discussed numerous times through out this season so far in this thread and has not been a problem until I started posting some of the plays.
I know we are losing money over this past month with most systems, but lets not get all butt hurt about this. You all should be thankful that me among others are posting 4th quarter plays. At a 70% win rate, I feel people should be happy to make some extra money back, that they may have lost on their D bet.
Chill out and enjoy the extra income. Maybe some of you enjoy losing money and do not want the extra units. If you do not like me posting the plays, there is a block filter you can use. I am sure more people enjoy knowing there are 4th quarter plays, then there are people who do not want them posted. Majority rules, have a nice day.
PS
Thanks stifler for the 10 point filter. I asked about this earlier, but did not get an answer.
PPS
Now if everyone would stop bitching about people bitching, this thread will run a lot more smooth. We are all here for the same reason, to make money.Comment -
Hey JM,
Looking for the post where you explained the 4Q system.
Can I place 4Q bet on PIN?Comment -
In Stifler STİLL we trust
go on to chase.. though night for us all.. 
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