nba chase 12/13

**wade1** · 02-13-13, 08:35 AM

JM take your 4th quarter bets to another thread PLEASE

**Grinder12000** · 02-13-13, 08:43 AM

-3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers

Count that as a normal win!

**Nino7** · 02-13-13, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Count that as a normal win!

If you count this as a win then the loss by the beggining of the season that stifler won should be counted as a loss at the same time.I personnaly think that the graph show we got too numerous playing the system as the success increased.

**Grinder12000** · 02-13-13, 09:11 AM

True - if you can point me to that one . . . . . it should always be the closing line. I won that last night - I also took out all "extra" plays.

December 8th

(C Bet) GS fade: Detroit -1 1,10u | Brooklyn -6 2,31u |Washington +4,5 4,85u

Washington covered by 1/2 while many, including me pushed with +4 . Covers.com line was +4.5 and covered by 1/2.

We then went on to lose the new "C" game vs. Charlotte on the 10th and then the "D" game vs. Miami.

PERSONALLY - and this is not against Stiffler but more learning about the system, I don't like the numerous double plays where two systems are in agreement. Really crushes fluctuation. I think if Stiff could have less teams on multiple systems that might work out a little better.

On a side note - Stiffler - no worries dude. We/I appreciate the work and from personal experience on giving out picks -I would rather lose MY money then have others lose theirs. Just slap on the ass from me and keep your head up.

S4D 1-1
S1C 7-1
S3C 0-0

**scrotum_scr@cher** · 02-13-13, 10:07 AM

so is this the right time to bet the d bet sac fade? dallas-10 ???

**thelimit0310** · 02-13-13, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

Im gonna take the loss on the S4 tor fade, as Denver closing lines covers and technically ends the series.

Why use Covers now? You've been completely disregarding the closing line until this point. What about the loss earlier this year that was Covers official but you didn't count it because your personal line won??? Not trying to be disrespectful and I thank you for the picks but, you need to pick a side here...

**John Deere** · 02-13-13, 11:17 AM

Wow nice lines today

Pacers -10
Mavs - 10
Cavs + 6

**Stifler** · 02-13-13, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Why use Covers now? You've been completely disregarding the closing line until this point. What about the loss earlier this year that was Covers official but you didn't count it because your personal line won??? Not trying to be disrespectful and I thank you for the picks but, you need to pick a side here...

i listed the lost amount, whats the problem?

**Stifler** · 02-13-13, 11:33 AM

13.02.2013

S1

(C Bet) Ind: Indiana -7 2,20u | Indiana -8 3,52u | Indiana -waiting...

S2

(C Bet) Cle: Cleveland +6 1,10u | Cleveland -6,5 2,31u | Cleveland - waiting...
(A Bet) Utah fade: Minnesota - waiting...

S3

(C Bet) Ind: Indiana -7 2,20u | Indiana -8 3,52u | Indiana - waiting...

S4

(D Bet) Sac fade: Utah +1,5 1,10u | Hou -6 2,31u | Mem -8,5 4,85u| Dallas -10 10,19u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**John Deere** · 02-13-13, 11:38 AM

You are doing new A plays ? Even if the All-star weekend is comming?

**Alwarrete** · 02-13-13, 11:38 AM

After the Denver closing lines, what do you think its better? wait for the last momment and bet with the closing line or place it asap?

**Stifler** · 02-13-13, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

4th quarter system 1-1 today

1-0! OKC wasnt a play. They were not down by 10 or more after the 3rd.

**Stifler** · 02-13-13, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by Alwarrete

After the Denver closing lines, what do you think its better? wait for the last momment and bet with the closing line or place it asap?

betting the closing line strictly follows the the system, cause i backtested the lines on covers. I doubt u will also get the exact closing line, even if u bet the games right before the game starts. Still its not a smart move at all...i prefer beating the closing line. Situations like last night may happen, but it also happens that u finish off a series with a better line.

You are doing new A plays ? Even if the All-star weekend is comming?

the allstar break didnt had an impact during the backtest, so yes im crazy enough to start new A bets.

**dlunc3** · 02-13-13, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

4th quarter system 1-1 today

Why dont you post these plays in the correct thread?

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1548879-lunts-4q-betting-system.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

Doesnt matter that much to me personally, just would seem to make more sense. It would be easier to track as well as easier for people to follow and learn the rules.

**Grinder12000** · 02-13-13, 12:00 PM

wait for the last momment and bet with the closing line or place it asap?

+

As a VERY VERY basic strategy - favorites do tend to gather momentum so wait for the dogs and get the favorites early. HOWEVER - that is not always the case. Go to the top of this site and look at the LIVE ODDS. getting the best line is an art. The more you work at it the better you get. I've been beating stiffler half the time but when he can get in early he beats me. I lost some early games on this chase just because I was not good at getting the best line.

A friend of mine that did the I'M OUT thing asked what went wrong. My theory is not really anything. It's not like the games are close we we have been getting clobbered. If the books can't even get the lines close a system will have problems.

**noveggies** · 02-13-13, 12:01 PM

So, thoughts on going all in fading sac (playing it as a D and E) -- I mean, we're at 3 in a row D losses now right? Can we really end up with 4 in a row?

**John Deere** · 02-13-13, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by noveggies

So, thoughts on going all in fading sac (playing it as a D and E) -- I mean, we're at 3 in a row D losses now right? Can we really end up with 4 in a row?

I think ill make a play on it.
Ill bet 5 more units on it.

**Stifler** · 02-13-13, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by noveggies

So, thoughts on going all in fading sac (playing it as a D and E) -- I mean, we're at 3 in a row D losses now right? Can we really end up with 4 in a row?

thats IMPOSSIBLE, we are doint sports betting here. If one thing is for sure - we can not lose 4 D bets in a row...

dont overreact now...still its ur decision.

**Stifler** · 02-13-13, 12:48 PM

- all lines updated.

13.02.2013

S1

(C Bet) Ind: Indiana -7 2,20u | Indiana -8 3,52u | Indiana -10,5 7,39u

S2

(C Bet) Cle: Cleveland +6 1,10u | Cleveland -6,5 2,31u | Cleveland +7 4,85u
(A Bet) Utah fade: Minnesota -2,5 1,10u

S3

(C Bet) Ind: Indiana -7 2,20u | Indiana -8 3,52u | Indiana -10,5 7,39u

S4

(D Bet) Sac fade: Utah +1,5 1,10u | Hou -6 2,31u | Mem -8,5 4,85u| Dallas -10 10,19u

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**billyboy44** · 02-13-13, 01:02 PM

Originally Posted by noveggies
So, thoughts on going all in fading sac (playing it as a D and E) -- I mean, we're at 3 in a row D losses now right? Can we really end up with 4 in a row?

thats IMPOSSIBLE, we are doint sports betting here. If one thing is for sure - we can not lose 4 D bets in a row...

dont overreact now...still its ur decision.

Hey Stiffy, don't jinx us. Its called gambling for a reason and 4 is a possibility. Hopefully not but it could happen.

**RVP** · 02-13-13, 01:09 PM

Why is the C bet on indiana only 4,85 units ?

**Kelloggs** · 02-13-13, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by RVP

Why is the C bet on indiana only 4,85 units ?

Because that is the stake for a C bet if you are going for 1 unit.

**Stifler** · 02-13-13, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by billyboy44

Hey Stiffy, don't jinx us. Its called gambling for a reason and 4 is a possibility. Hopefully not but it could happen.

i was ironical!

**Grinder12000** · 02-13-13, 01:42 PM

We have not even lost 3 in a row - why are we talking about 4 in a row??

BTW - I'm analyzing WHY the Chase has sucked lately.

**RVP** · 02-13-13, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by Kelloggs

Because that is the stake for a C bet if you are going for 1 unit.

Yea i know. But when the A and B bet is lose of 5,72 total the C bet schould be 7,38 to win 1 unit.

**Nino7** · 02-13-13, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by RVP

Yea i know. But when the A and B bet is lose of 5,72 total the C bet schould be 7,38 to win 1 unit.

Stifler isnt a machine

**Stifler** · 02-13-13, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by RVP

Yea i know. But when the A and B bet is lose of 5,72 total the C bet schould be 7,38 to win 1 unit.

edited, thx.

**Grinder12000** · 02-13-13, 02:36 PM

Fun with numbers - While losing 4 "D" bets in a row is really not that rare and should happen 1 out of 84 "D" games - the REAL mind bender is that in order to lose four "D" bets in a row you have to lose 16 games which is 1 out of 588,235 times so you would have to play 9,411,740 games to have that happen ONCE.

BTW - we have only lost 2 in a row.

**Alwarrete** · 02-13-13, 02:41 PM

I dont think how many D bets are lost in a row matters (sorry for this shitt english, not even me understand this xD)

What i think matters is how many A, B or C bets we win before we lose a D one. Thats the point imo.

**OFS** · 02-13-13, 03:26 PM

West is a game time decision for Indiana.

**John Deere** · 02-13-13, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by OFS

West is a game time decision for Indiana.

That mean the line will go downnnnnnnnnnnn

**Grinder12000** · 02-13-13, 04:15 PM

Originally Posted by thelimit0310
Why use Covers now? You've been completely disregarding the closing line until this point. What about the loss earlier this year that was Covers official but you didn't count it because your personal line won??? Not trying to be disrespectful and I thank you for the picks but, you need to pick a side here...
i listed the lost amount, whats the problem?

Actually there is a huge difference between a "D" win and a "D" loss because of a non-push if you are using Covers closing line. You pushed it while Covers made it a 1/2 point loss (as did most of us). Then we lost the next 3 while you lost 3 and won the last - told you it would come back to bite you! :-)

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-13-13, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by wade1

JM take your 4th quarter bets to another thread PLEASE

Originally posted by dlunc3

Why dont you post these plays in the correct thread?

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1548879-lunts-4q-betting-system.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

Doesnt matter that much to me personally, just would seem to make more sense. It would be easier to track as well as easier for people to follow and learn the rules.

Why is it a problem with me posting 4th quarter bets in this thread? For one, stiffler is the one who brought it into this thread to help everyone make more money. 2) That link is for last years thread. 3) This system has been discussed numerous times through out this season so far in this thread and has not been a problem until I started posting some of the plays.

I know we are losing money over this past month with most systems, but lets not get all butt hurt about this. You all should be thankful that me among others are posting 4th quarter plays. At a 70% win rate, I feel people should be happy to make some extra money back, that they may have lost on their D bet.

Chill out and enjoy the extra income. Maybe some of you enjoy losing money and do not want the extra units. If you do not like me posting the plays, there is a block filter you can use. I am sure more people enjoy knowing there are 4th quarter plays, then there are people who do not want them posted. Majority rules, have a nice day.

PS
Thanks stifler for the 10 point filter. I asked about this earlier, but did not get an answer.

PPS
Now if everyone would stop bitching about people bitching, this thread will run a lot more smooth. We are all here for the same reason, to make money.

**John Deere** · 02-13-13, 04:41 PM

Hey JM,

Looking for the post where you explained the 4Q system.
Can I place 4Q bet on PIN?

**olmec** · 02-13-13, 05:17 PM

In Stifler STİLL we trust

go on to chase.. though night for us all..