Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[thorny]

Actually I need one as well, not sure? Perhaps you should start a thread about it? I have 12 sportsbook accounts and yet nothing with decent player props other than Sportingbet and Centrebet who offer 1 per game max and Bet 365 who offer tons of player props at the disgusting odds of -120 ($1.83). Tried to open accounts at places like Heritage and Bodog and others that are supposed to be good for prop bets but they wont accept accounts from Aussies.

Pinnacle doesn't do player props un-fortunately. Pinnacle is a serious book, they don't mess around with any type of prop bets as far as I know?

Yeah, no real good books being an Aussie on American sports.

I use Sportsbet/Bet365. Sportsbet sometimes has O/U for a player's individual stats for some games that they feel like doing it for.

Yeah Pinnacle no go.

[Celtics08]

Cleveland not defence nothing...fck!

[Celtics08]

they give easy shoots...imposible win with this way

[fitguy67]

This simulation says otherwise Raptors 105.4 - Cleveland 99 Kidding sando I am liking this play too, hope everone here cash tonight

kenz, thots on the value (negative/neutral/positive) of this simulator....something to avoid looking at, a waste of time, or something to make a point to look at?

[davopnz]

lol boston are awful

[joemfbishop]

does anybody know why the Laker total has dropped from 208 to 204...anybody out?

there was heavy action on the under last night so it dropped quickly plus the possibility of 2 lakers out for the night(nash and gasol)....my book drop by two as well. Which shyed me away fom taking it , but did add the total to my teaser for the night

I hate to pick against you sando but i took utah +4.5 and minnesota+8.5 earlier this morning for my underdog parlay. not so sure about it but ya never know.

GL

[Byrone09]

Damn I hate the Raptors. They have been a major thorn in my sports betting side!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Actually I need one as well, not sure? Perhaps you should start a thread about it? I have 12 sportsbook accounts and yet nothing with decent player props other than Sportingbet and Centrebet who offer 1 per game max and Bet 365 who offer tons of player props at the disgusting odds of -120 ($1.83). Tried to open accounts at places like Heritage and Bodog and others that are supposed to be good for prop bets but they wont accept accounts from Aussies.

Pinnacle doesn't do player props un-fortunately. Pinnacle is a serious book, they don't mess around with any type of prop bets as far as I know?

From memory, that guy Cheme (prop king) uses Bovada.
Not sure if they take Aussie accounts though.

[davopnz]

cavs and biggest play of the year doesn't work for me, those kunts always choke when i bet on them. might take first half line

[757sFinest]

Bottom line. Toronto is starting to ball.

[757sFinest]

that and the Cavs just stand around on the interior.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Can someone confirm:

The amount of times these two teams have burnt us when we bet them or fade them?

Raptors is at least 3

[TBsp75]

bargnani's comment of worst team in nba really fire up the raptors lately.

[MrXYZ]

Can someone confirm:

The amount of times these two teams have burnt us when we bet them or fade them?

Raptors is at least 3

Twice this week already.

[davopnz]

there is some serious coin to be made betting cavs first half then fading them second half, its a trend that i'm noticing more and more hence why i suggested first half line

[NittanyLionsFan]

Aye Sando... #suckadickb

[thorny]

Lakers -4 1st Qtr?

[davopnz]

Aye Sando... #suckadickb

this guy with his gay chris benoit avatar

[Byrone09]

Having some really bad 2nd halves...

[Romerowned]

Yesterday the guy goes 2-0 and everyone loves him, today he might go 0-5 and everybody hates. Nobody have to follow of they don't want to. They are his picks and you can follow them if you want or not if you don't want. I'm just anticipating on the garbage posts coming.

[shimeon40]

Hi Nittany..happy xmas bud.

[Catchn_Picks]

Gee...tough crowd. No doubt a disappointing game...I stepped up too but It's not like we've never found winners around here.

The fact is that TOR has been atrocious on the road this year and today they decided to be good.

[Byrone09]

Gee...tough crowd. No doubt a disappointing game...I stepped up too but It's not like we've never found winners around here.

The fact is that TOR has been atrocious on the road this year and today they decided to be good.

It's heading towards several disappointing games... We'll get em tomorrow

[757sFinest]

well. that sucks. the first time I've tailed someone in a while and I'm down 550. Oh well. You are still up. GL the rest of the way.

[usfunca]

Ouch. Rough beat today. That 40 unit ceiling is acting like brick instead of glass. Get em back tomorrow sando!

[MTM]

Toronto is my arch enemy. Can't back or fade. Time for a break from gambling

[h3da]

Gambling is a marathon and not a sprint.. Some days you just can't pick a winner while other days you sweep! Love Thunder tomorrow. Hawks played hard OT today while Thunder is well rested.

[shimeon40]

24 hours break enough MTM ?....

[tblues2005]

A tough loss tonight and at least Miami won. It wasn't a total loss though. I did well enough last night so tonight isn't that bad.

[MrXYZ]

Sando's proven himself as a consistent winner across several sports. In a long season, tough days are inevitable. They're going to hit hard regardless of how much work you put in. They just make the winning days sweeter.
Get 'em tomorrow.

[TBsp75]

Gambling is a marathon and not a sprint.. Some days you just can't pick a winner while other days you sweep! Love Thunder tomorrow. Hawks played hard OT today while Thunder is well rested.

investment is a marathon. gambling is a sprint orite. if your bankroll can't make it during a bad stretch, you're gambling and you can forget about winning money in this business. sando you doing great, don't let couple of bad days affect your confidence. forget all abt it when you doing analysis today. jst a little suggestion, don't upsize your unit to inconsistent teams like cle no matter how good it looks.

[Arthur-from-LV]

Subjectivity got a deserved smack from objectivity in regards the simulator results for the Cavs game, no offense Sando. I only handicap MLB games using my own simulator. I will start posting much picks for baseball when the next season rolls around. I'm still going to follow this thread for basketball because I'm new to NBA handicapping. Anyways kudos to whoever posted the SIM results for the Cavs game and the source, another reason why I come here.

[daimoshokage]

NBA Tuesday

Toronto @ Cleveland
Cav's -4.5 (-104 Pinnacle) 3x LOSER

"Analysis

Toronto - The Raptors have been playing great basketball the last 2 games AT HOME without 2 of their "big 3" in Lowry and Bargnani, no doubt in response to the supposed comments in the Italian media from Bargnani calling them "the worst team in the NBA". Also there is the bizzare angle of teams raising their level of play when the big guns go down. This is usually attributed to the 2nd and 3rd string players getting a temporary increase in minutes and hence they have the chance to show the coaches what they can offer as they battle each other for minutes in the future. The direct result of this is increased intensity and hustle which combined with the all too common (albeit subtle) psychological let down of the opposition team (who focus their game plans around and scrutinize the scouting reports of the opponents stars) can catch them totally off guard. Add in the build up of pressure from getting hammered in the media, social networks and on message boards like SBR and it is not actually that suprising in hindsight that Toronto has performed so well the last 2 games (although we found out the hard way with the Dallas & Houston picks). This type of situation where a weak team is playing well above their expected median level rarely lasts as with each game, the guys that are getting minutes become more comfortable and whatever 'edge' they were playing with tends to regress in a snowball type effect over time (the possible exceptions being strong teams who are well drilled/well coached of which the Raptors are not). Regardless their recent 2 game winning streak has come at home and the fact remains that Toronto is a terrible 1-14 on the road, with the sole win coming over a month ago by 2 points against an Indiana team that was so dismal they still lost the game despite the Raptors only scoring 5 points in the 4th quarter! Before Toronto's recent 3 game home stand (2 wins and a loss to the Nets) they came off a 5 game road trip where they went 0-5 with an average losing margin of 15.8 points and they got absolutely crushed the last 3 games before heading home. Overall Toronto is on an 11 game road losing streak.

Cleveland - The Cav's get a massive boost in this game with Dion Waiters returning from injury for the first time he will partner Irving in the back court since Nov 18. This potentially adds 15.2 ppg for the Cav's and combined with Irving and his 22.5 ppg creates a young, athletic and dangerous back court for the Cav's, although it is highly likely Waiters will come off the bench as in his absence CJ Miles has been tearing it up averaging 22.5 points and 17 of 33 from 3-point range since being inserted into the starting lineup four games ago. It is unlikely coach Scott will want to mess around with Miles confidence ATM and that leaves Waiters (who will be on limited minutes anyway) to bolster a bench which will probably be Cleveland's biggest advantage over an injury hit Raptors list that is not overly deep to begin with. While Derozan will no doubt move to the back court to partner Calderon (who is currently Toronto's biggest asset) creating a great 1-2 punch with the ability to almost match the Cav's (Irving & Miles) offensively, but doing so will further stretch the Raptor's depth in the forwards as he is their starting SF. It is in the back court however where I expect Cleveland to thoroughly dominate the the Raptors, with Waiters coming off the bench alongside "Booby" Gibson who is always reliable for a handful of points and assists when given minutes, and either Pargo (who is capable of exploding for 20+) and/or Sloan who has proven that he can both score and dish the ball when given minutes. I expect a full 48 minutes relentless attack from the Cav's guards especially with Waiters coming off the bench, Miles red hot and bombing 3's and well Calderon has been playing great offensively but defensively he has about as much chance of troubling Irving as I do of getting decapitated by a frisbee when I take my Rottweiler to the park.

Clevelands record both at home and overall are nothing to get excited about, but let's just briefly look at their games over the last week - they had an emphatic home win over the Lakers and then went on the road and dominated the Pacers @ Indiana for a half before collapsing in the third quarter. They then went home to face the Bucks who raced out to a big early lead with Ellis just flat out balling and yet the Cav's fought back to take the lead in the third and were in the game right up to the end against a Bucks team riding a three game win streak, before eventually going down by 4. Last game they travelled to MSG and Irving went ballistic in the big apple and they completely stuck it to the red hot Knicks for 4 quarters before again going down by 1 point and that was only because Varejao missed a f/t at the death.

So to recap in the last week the Cav's have faced the Lakers, Bucks, Pacers and Knicks, all playoff teams and they have been there or there-about in every game right up to the death. You will not find a lack of effort in a Byron Scott coached team, that is a guarantee. Regardless of all the effort and hard work they are still on a 3 game losing streak and now they are back home, no doubt angry, angry over the Knicks loss and they have an injury hit Raptors team coming to town off the emotional high of their last two HOME games. The Cav's are basically at full strength with their only injury concern being Casspi and even he is a chance to suit up for this game. Most importantly they have their dynamic duo of Irving and Waiters both playing and a legitimate X-factor in Miles who has been redhot. Did I mention he has sunk 17 of 33 3-pointers in the last 4 games? Could this be a let down spot for the Raptors? Maybe? They could be looking ahead to the next night when they will head back home and play the back 2 back against Detroit in a game which is of course very winnable for them, however I dont care if it is or isnt, because the Cav's should win this and win it convincingly. Do not be suprised with a double digit final margin (despite the Raptor's ability to keep games close at the death this season).

Oh yeah lastly Anderson Varejao is having a career year leading the league in rebounds by a rediculous 2 whole boards over Zack Randolph at 14.6 rpg. This fluffy headed energiser bunny is scoring, rebounding, dishing the ball like a god damn p/g, I can see him causing some serious problems for young Valanciunas with his hustle and intensity. Seriously if he had of played like this when Lebron was in town, then maybe..." <-- TLDR AND THE.MOST.WORTHLESS.POST.EVER!!!


Utah @ Brooklyn
Nets -4.5 (-108 IAS/Sportsbet) 1.5x LOSER

Boston @ Chicago
Celtics +1.5 (-108 IAS/Sportsbet) 1.5x LOSER

Atlanta @ Atlanta
Hawks -7 (-105 Pinnacle) 1x LOSER

NBA Total of the day

Indiana @ Milwaukee
Over 186.5 (-107 Pinnacle) 1x Winner

1-4 and -6 units.. unreal!!
Thanks for the fades sando.. You're making me rich!!

[ShotgunRua]

Some people need to google variance........ If every day was a winning day nobody would have jobs and everyone could just tail Sando on here and spend the rest of the time sunbathing.

Your balance will go up and down and if you are doing things right it will be higher at the end of the season than it was at the start. Well done so far Sando you are already positive, keep up the good work!

[lagosu]

^exactly. don't lose your confidence over a few bad days and haters talking smack. i still believe in you brother, keep it up!