Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[Catchn_Picks]

Looks like we got ourselves a big game

[Shifty107]

Their new site is absolutely rubbish - chews way too much processor power - my fan goes up a click every time I open their site.

Their new site can eat a dik. Was using the old one up until yesterday. New one takes fukin forever to load shit. Need to click an option just to get the bet number. Bunch of fukin morons. Only reason I use them is that they can never ever ever cut my limits down.

[h3da]

The reason TAB changed is that it's harder to get ddosed and other companies can't use a scraper to steal their markets/odds etc... Terrible for punters to even access anything... They are losing so many punters especially accessing horse racing is just impossible!

[MakinItHappen]

Write up done. Damn, I don't know how some guys (touts) can do big write ups for every pick. I'm drained now, gonna take a break for a couple of hours and come back and look at the other games then. Will answer the questions about other games ASAP.



I agree Doc, however the market is currently offline. Not sure why? Maybe waiting on news of Ginobli's status for this game?



Absolutely mate. Irving over ____ points prop bet ??

It's a little draining man, I do it for tennis, but it also helps you revaluate your thought process and help you make decisions better for futures matches.

[dioforce]

NBA Tuesday Toronto @ Cleveland Cav's -4.5 (-104 Pinnacle) 3x Unofficial play - Cav's 1st half -2.5 (-107 Pinnacle) 1x (Unofficial plays are not counted on my record)*Was leaning towards a 3.5x play, but after much deliberation I cannot pull the trigger. Been going back and forth for half an hour trying to judge the value in this pick and I think 3x is correct in this situation. Analysis Toronto - The Raptors have been playing great basketball the last 2 games AT HOME without 2 of their "big 3" in Lowry and Bargnani, no doubt in response to the supposed comments in the Italian media from Bargnani calling them "the worst team in the NBA". Also there is the bizzare angle of teams raising their level of play when the big guns go down. This is usually attributed to the 2nd and 3rd string players getting a temporary increase in minutes and hence they have the chance to show the coaches what they can offer as they battle each other for minutes in the future. The direct result of this is increased intensity and hustle which combined with the all too common (albeit subtle) psychological let down of the opposition team (who focus their game plans around and scrutinize the scouting reports of the opponents stars) can catch them totally off guard. Add in the build up of pressure from getting hammered in the media, social networks and on message boards like SBR and it is not actually that suprising in hindsight that Toronto has performed so well the last 2 games (although we found out the hard way with the Dallas & Houston picks). This type of situation where a weak team is playing well above their expected median level rarely lasts as with each game, the guys that are getting minutes become more comfortable and whatever 'edge' they were playing with tends to regress in a snowball type effect over time (the possible exceptions being strong teams who are well drilled/well coached of which the Raptors are not). Regardless their recent 2 game winning streak has come at home and the fact remains that Toronto is a terrible 1-14 on the road, with the sole win coming over a month ago by 2 points against an Indiana team that was so dismal they still lost the game despite the Raptors only scoring 5 points in the 4th quarter! Before Toronto's recent 3 game home stand (2 wins and a loss to the Nets) they came off a 5 game road trip where they went 0-5 with an average losing margin of 15.8 points and they got absolutely crushed the last 3 games before heading home. Overall Toronto is on an 11 game road losing streak. Cleveland - The Cav's get a massive boost in this game with Dion Waiters returning from injury for the first time he will partner Irving in the back court since Nov 18. This potentially adds 15.2 ppg for the Cav's and combined with Irving and his 22.5 ppg creates a young, athletic and dangerous back court for the Cav's, although it is highly likely Waiters will come off the bench as in his absence CJ Miles has been tearing it up averaging 22.5 points and 17 of 33 from 3-point range since being inserted into the starting lineup four games ago. It is unlikely coach Scott will want to mess around with Miles confidence ATM and that leaves Waiters (who will be on limited minutes anyway) to bolster a bench which will probably be Cleveland's biggest advantage over an injury hit Raptors list that is not overly deep to begin with. While Derozan will no doubt move to the back court to partner Calderon (who is currently Toronto's biggest asset) creating a great 1-2 punch with the ability to almost match the Cav's (Irving & Miles) offensively, but doing so will further stretch the Raptor's depth in the forwards as he is their starting SF. It is in the back court however where I expect Cleveland to thoroughly dominate the the Raptors, with Waiters coming off the bench alongside "Booby" Gibson who is always reliable for a handful of points and assists when given minutes, and either Pargo (who is capable of exploding for 20+) and/or Sloan who has proven that he can both score and dish the ball when given minutes. I expect a full 48 minutes relentless attack from the Cav's guards especially with Waiters coming off the bench, Miles red hot and bombing 3's and well Calderon has been playing great offensively but defensively he has about as much chance of troubling Irving as I do of getting decapitated by a frisbee when I take my Rottweiler to the park. Clevelands record both at home and overall are nothing to get excited about, but let's just briefly look at their games over the last week - they had an emphatic home win over the Lakers and then went on the road and dominated the Pacers @ Indiana for a half before collapsing in the third quarter. They then went home to face the Bucks who raced out to a big early lead with Ellis just flat out balling and yet the Cav's fought back to take the lead in the third and were in the game right up to the end against a Bucks team riding a three game win streak, before eventually going down by 4. Last game they travelled to MSG and Irving went ballistic in the big apple and they completely stuck it to the red hot Knicks for 4 quarters before again going down by 1 point and that was only because Varejao missed a f/t at the death. So to recap in the last week the Cav's have faced the Lakers, Bucks, Pacers and Knicks, all playoff teams and they have been there or there-about in every game right up to the death. You will not find a lack of effort in a Byron Scott coached team, that is a guarantee. Regardless of all the effort and hard work they are still on a 3 game losing streak and now they are back home, no doubt angry, angry over the Knicks loss and they have an injury hit Raptors team coming to town off the emotional high of their last two HOME games. The Cav's are basically at full strength with their only injury concern being Casspi and even he is a chance to suit up for this game. Most importantly they have their dynamic duo of Irving and Waiters both playing and a legitimate X-factor in Miles who has been redhot. Did I mention he has sunk 17 of 33 3-pointers in the last 4 games? Could this be a let down spot for the Raptors? Maybe? They could be looking ahead to the next night when they will head back home and play the back 2 back against Detroit in a game which is of course very winnable for them, however I dont care if it is or isnt, because the Cav's should win this and win it convincingly. Do not be suprised with a double digit final margin (despite the Raptor's ability to keep games close at the death this season). Oh yeah lastly Anderson Varejao is having a career year leading the league in rebounds by a rediculous 2 whole boards over Zack Randolph at 14.6 rpg. This fluffy headed energiser bunny is scoring, rebounding, dishing the ball like a god damn p/g, I can see him causing some serious problems for young Valanciunas with his hustle and intensity. Seriously if he had of played like this when Lebron was in town, then maybe... Utah @ Brooklyn Nets -4.5 (-108 IAS/Sportsbet) 1.5x Boston @ Chicago Celtics +1.5 (-108 IAS/Sportsbet) 1.5x Washington @ Atlanta Hawks -7 (-105 Pinnacle) 1x The Hawks coming off an embarassing belting at home from the hot Warriors will be unlikely to overlook this game. The Wizzards on the other hand are hit hard by injuries at the moment and lost their last game to the "real" Miami Heat by 30 points. This is a list already lacking in talent/depth and with Wall still out and Nene (who has looked sharp in recent games) likely to sit this one out again, it's hard to see how they can keep pace with a Hawks team who is 6-3 on the road with an average winning margin of 9.8 points and their smallest margin in a road win being 6 points. The Wizards are 2-8 at home and despite being banged up it is unlikely the Hawks will take them lightly after being pushed to OT in Atlanta earlier in the season followed by a 9 point win the next time they visited Philip's arena. Unfortunately due to my procrastination have missed the earlier -6.5, but still like the -7 for a unit.

12/16/12	Nene	C	Foot	Questionable for Dec. 18 vs. Atlanta
12/12/12	A.J. Price	PG	Hand	Out until at least late December
12/10/12	John Wall	PG	Knee	Out until at least late December
12/05/12	Trevor Ariza	SG	Calf	Out until at least late December
12/15/12	Trevor Booker	PF	Knee	Out until at least late December

Atlanta has a far superior ATS record on the road (6-3) as opposed to at home (3-8-1), whilst Washington has a worse ATS record at home (4-5-1) than they do on the road (6-4-1), despite consistently being given plenty of points as a home dog. From a betting point of view this game is better for us that Hawks are travelling to Washington. NBA Total of the day Indiana @ Milwaukee Over 186.5 (-107 Pinnacle) 1x *New rules. Obviously I have been struggling with my totals lately (after such a great start to the season) so from now on I will play 1 total per day max, if and only if I can actually find something that looks solid.

okay

[sando]

This simulation says otherwise Raptors 105.4 - Cleveland 99 Kidding sando I am liking this play too, hope everone here cash tonight

Not sure where you got this from mate? But I will post the team rankings predictions now.

Team Rankings

Toronto Raptors	92.9
Cleveland Cavaliers	96.5

The reason TAB changed is that it's harder to get ddosed and other companies can't use a scraper to steal their markets/odds etc... Terrible for punters to even access anything... They are losing so many punters especially accessing horse racing is just impossible!

I have had dealings with every single major Australian book, and the only two I would not reccomend are TAB and Tom Waterhouse. IMO the best short term option is Luxbet due to their current and extremely generous 100% match up to $500 promo. Otherwise you cannot beat Pinnacle. As you know boys (Aussies) we are living in the dark ages with these no internet live betting laws (penetrating Nick Xenophon), yet with Pinnacle you can bet instantly as lines are released at every time out and break. Personally I turn over 10-15 units every day with live betting at Pinnacle, usually 3-5x more than my pre-match plays which are posted here.

you put washington @ atlanta, you mean atlanta @ washington

My bad. I'll edit it now. Thanks.

Good work Sando.

I will be creating an Australian Open 2013 contest fairly soon, I hope you join bro.

Absolutely, I love tennis competitions. EaglesPhan did a great one for the O2 finals recently.

what is meant by -2 x ATS?

ATS means at the spread. For example if the line/spread is -2 then you would need your team to win by 3 or more to cash the bet (with a win by 2 being a push = money back).

I'll be honest Sando I liked you more when I believed you to be more stoic. Good luck. I'm playing the averages at this point so I'll stick around, probably. (Thank you to the two people who get my entendre; life sucks up here amirite?)

Well I try to be as transparent as possible about how I am feeling and my picks and how much work I am putting in, etc. You will not get any bullshit or false bravado from me. I am what I say, no point pretending to be something I'm not.

Where do you live Sando? And what is your nba team? I have curiosity

I live in Adelaide, South Australia and I am a complete Lakers homer. Psyched for the return of "Boom Boom" Pau Gasol today. I think there is a very good chance the bob-kitty's get rolled by 20 today, as Artest is playing great ATM and the Lake show appears as if it may have turned the corner?

[Romerowned]

you put washington @ atlanta, you mean atlanta @ washington

[Hereindallas]

what is meant by -2 x ATS?

[thewhiteguy]

Lets GO BABY!!! Thanks again Sando, for all you do!!!!!

[mvanja]

what is meant by -2 x ATS?

2 games against the spread

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Good luck all.

[Yinz Hooligan]

cavs -4.5

lets get this!!!

[mvanja]

"Not sure where you got this from mate? But I will post the team rankings predictions now."

Box Score Projection

Points	105.4	99.0
Total Points		204.4

I have already played on cav's, but just to be fair to Kenz, it really shows this result... But never mind. If u read carefully it says that injuries and home field is not taken in consideration.... Lets make some $$$$$$

[shinu]

Cavs MUST win tonight!

BOL!

[sando]

"Not sure where you got this from mate? But I will post the team rankings predictions now."

Box Score Projection

Points	105.4	99.0
Total Points		204.4

I have already played on cav's, but just to be fair to Kenz, it really shows this result... But never mind. If u read carefully it says that injuries and home field is not taken in consideration.... Lets make some $$$$$$

Seriously with an O/U of 189 how could you possibly have a projected score of 204.4?? And what sort of computer comes up with Tornto as a 6 point favorite over the Cav's in Cleveland???? I have absolutely no idea what "Team Rankings" you guys are using but this is the official Team Rankings.

Toronto at Cleveland

Tuesday Dec 18, 2012 - 7:00 pm - Cleveland, OH | Odds: Cleveland by 4.5, Total Points: 189 | Team Pages: TOR | CLE

Cleveland			Toronto	41.1%
Cleveland	58.9%

TOR +4.5			Toronto	53.4%
Cleveland	46.6%

Over 189.0			Over	51.3%
Under	48.7%

TOR +175			Toronto	+4.7%
Cleveland	-7.2%

Toronto	92.9	92.2
Cleveland	96.5	96.8

Offensive Stat Comparison

Points/Game	95.5	94.0
Avg Score Margin	-5.7	-5.8
Fastbreak Pts/Gm	9.6	11.0
Pts in Paint/Gm	37.0	38.5
Assists/Game	20.8	19.5
Total Rebounds/Gm	48.8	53.6
Effective FG %	46.9%	46.0%
Off Rebound %	24.0%	31.2%
FTA/FGA	0.273	0.254
Turnover %	12.2%	14.5%

Defensive Stat Comparison

Opp Points/Game	101.2	99.8
Opp Effective FG %	49.7%	51.6%
Opp Pts in Paint/Gm	43.4	40.5
Off Rebounds/Gm	10.6	13.8
Def Rebounds/Gm	30.1	29.0
Blocks/Game	5.2	3.0
Steals/Game	7.1	8.4
Personal Fouls/Gm	23.7	22.3

[TBsp75]

i see the same team ranking as sando.

Final Score Projection Vegas Implied
Toronto 92.9 92.2
Cleveland 96.5 96.8

[mvanja]

Sando check Box Score Projection and U'll see TOR 105,4 CLE 99


But if u read the explanation it says that injuries and home/away is not in this projection

[mvanja]

lets go cav's

[sando]

Sando check Box Score Projection and U'll see TOR 105,4 CLE 99


But if u read the explanation it says that injuries and home/away is not in this projection

Fair enough, but those calculations are completely rediculous, coming up with a total of 204.4 on a Vegas line of 189.5. A 15 point disrepancy, WTF? I use team rankings through Espn Insider mostly, as opposed to the website where your link is going.

[kenz]

Sando what do you think about under for Bulls. I played under for Pacers - Phili under 182 you said I am not completeley convicted on it but under came. Now I am not sure about this game

Totals is around 180. What you say

[NBA Maniac]

MY prevision: total of +/- 183 points

[Byrone09]

Today's total is down to 185. Major movement!

BOL all! Don't go too crazy, stick to your units all! Lots of fervor on the Cavs.

[mvanja]

Fair enough, but those calculations are completely rediculous, coming up with a total of 204.4 on a Vegas line of 189.5. A 15 point disrepancy, WTF? I use team rankings through Espn Insider mostly, as opposed to the website where your link is going.

Ooooo, now I understand why u are much better capper than me... That's why I (we) need u every day.... Anyway it really doesn't make any sense, two completely opposite info about the same game on the same site.
I just wanted to be fair to Kenz since I sow the same projection....

[kenz]

Ooooo, now I understand why u are much better capper than me... That's why I (we) need u every day.... Anyway it really doesn't make any sense, two completely opposite info about the same game on the same site.
I just wanted to be fair to Kenz since I sow the same projection....

Thanks man

[sando]

Sando what do you think about under for Bulls. I played under for Pacers - Phili under 182 you said I am not completeley convicted on it but under came. Now I am not sure about this game

Totals is around 180. What you say

Line movement = Under (Line has steadily moved down from 182 to 180)
Accuscore = Over (182)
Team rankings = Over (180.7)
Number Fire = 51.8% likelihood of Under 181

From my experience totals set around 180 are profitable (-110 odds) if you play the under every single game. A long time ago I came across some fascinating angles on playing the Under on every total set at 180 and lower and playing the Over on every total set at 210 and higher. Having said that i think Rondo will push the pace against the Bulls (playing the back 2 back)and I am leaning towards the over in this game but will not be playing it myself. This is not the same defensive minded C's team of recent years. Boston's famous defence of 2008-10 was master-minded by none other than the Bulls current head coach in Thib's.

[thorny]

Sando, what's the best site for Player Props? Pinnacle as well?

[mvanja]

Guess what guys, every game I've watched (TOR) this guy De Rozan played like he is Jordan son at least.... So for our sake I'm going to kill my pc and go to sleep. Hopefully tomorrow I'll find some cash on my BNROLL. GL 2 ALL.... Sando U'll brake 40 tonight....

[sando]

Sando, what's the best site for Player Props? Pinnacle as well?

Actually I need one as well, not sure? Perhaps you should start a thread about it? I have 12 sportsbook accounts and yet nothing with decent player props other than Sportingbet and Centrebet who offer 1 per game max and Bet 365 who offer tons of player props at the disgusting odds of -120 ($1.83). Tried to open accounts at places like Heritage and Bodog and others that are supposed to be good for prop bets but they wont accept accounts from Aussies.

Pinnacle doesn't do player props un-fortunately. Pinnacle is a serious book, they don't mess around with any type of prop bets as far as I know?

[Catchn_Picks]

does anybody know why the Laker total has dropped from 208 to 204...anybody out?

[sando]

Luke Walton playing for the Cav's in the 1st Quarter. We are all doomed haha.

[TBsp75]

hope varejao is alrite. i really dun like zeller playing for the team im betting on.

hey sando, you been consistently winning right. does the books limit your bet or anythin? cheers
pinnacle said winners welcome. does it mean some books suspend your account for winning?

[kenz]

Sando what is your view on Cavs game?

[MrXYZ]

Fukkn Calderon can't miss.

[Celtics08]

Calderon unstoppable pfff...

[Byrone09]

Luke Walton playing for the Cav's in the 1st Quarter. We are all doomed haha.

Wtf? Walton is still playing in the NBA? Poor guy should retire...