Originally posted by FredMadison
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Anytime mate...
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sando, i didnt pull the trigger on caroline. glad you guys cashed
Ferrer pick was on the spot!!Comment -
Nets cashes!
Dallas looking great and Dallas over will cash easily...Comment -
Tennis YTD 16-13-4 (+7.24 Units)
NBA YTD 5-2 (+2.96 Units)
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Great start sando!Comment -
WTA Tournament of Champions Bulgaria (Indoor Hard)
FINAL
Caroline Wozniacki v Nadezda Petrova
Wozniacki -4 games -133 (Sportingbet) 2 Units
Got to be quick peoples, Pinnacle -4 line is already a horrible -171, I found it on Sportingbet for the above price and if you shop around you find a nicer price than Pinnacle, although I expect the Pinny line to adjust slightly in our favor? Anyway I would not reccomend taking more than -4, that way even if Nadia wins a set Wozza can still cover the -4 easy, although I expect Wozza to win 2-0 as you will see from the next play...
Wozza playing lights out tennis this week. I have watched her play and been very impressed. She is once again on the rise and has just checked back into the WTA top 10. She can definitely handle Nadia's heavy shots and send them right back with interest. A battle of Ms. consistent vs Ms. In-consistent.
Caroline Wozniacki has won 14 in a row when Opponent is a Big Server.
Caroline Wozniacki has won 8 in a row on Indoor Hard.
Wozniacki 2-0 Sets -106 (Pinnacle) 1 Unit
Paris Masters 1000 (Indoor Hard)
FINAL
David Ferrer v Jerzy Janowicz
Ferrer -3 -105 (Pinnacle) 1 Unit
Over 23 games -116 (Pinnacle) 1 Unit
*I quite like Ferrer to cover the -3 games even if Swift (JJ) wins a set (7-6?), however I am not willing to play for more than 1 unit as I have a pending 3 unit futures bet on Ferrer already to win the tournament so obviously don't want to get too heavily stacked on the one side. I have been VERY impressed by the emotional and somewhat arrogant young Pole this week, but let's see how his big serve holds up against Ferrer the pit-bull, who dealt with Tsonga's big serve with ease (after the first few games) and eventually overcame a possesed Llodra who was also dropping bombs (at least in the first set). This definitely can go 3 with the fired up and emotional Pole taking the first if his kick serve is on and he is hitting the lines, but they don't call Ferrer roadrunner for nothing. Ferrer is smart, high tennis IQ, he will understand JJ must be running on fumes after playing 7 matches in 7 days, 3 more than Ferrer and 7 more sets in total. Even if they had both played the same ammount of matches, JJ would struggle in the 3rd against Ferrer's never ending energy and hustle. As fatigue sets in JJ will probably start playing closer to the lines and looking to end points = high U/E count? Many have tried this tactic and failed against Ferrer. I could easily see a scoreline like 7-6 (JJ) then 7-5 6-2 (Ferrer), Over is also minor insurance against Ferrer losing ATS, as highly un-likely Ferrer go's down in 2. Remember at 30 this may be Ferrer's last chance to claim a Masters title and it is definitely his best!
David Ferrer has won 9 in a row when Opponent is a Big Server.
David Ferrer has won 6 of last 7 Finals.
David Ferrer has won 9 in a row on Indoor Hard.
Eckental Challenger Germany (Carpet)
FINAL
Ernests Gulbis v Daniel Brands
Gulbis m/l -250 (Sportingbet) 2 Units
* I hate playing on heavy favorites in tennis, but in this case would like some insurance aginst the following bet...
Gulbis 2-1 Sets +310 (Sportingbet) 1 Unit
Surprise, surprise, we ride with Gulbis again for the 5th day in a row as we have every round since round 1 (round of 32). If you want analysis go back and read yesterdays write-up on Gulbis match in the semi's. All I will say is we are playing small as Brands is a German playing in a final in front of his home crowd and is a competent tennis player who deserves his spot in the final. I have a feeling Brands may take the first (national pride and all that crap), but l expect Gulbis superior skill to roll over the top as the match progresses
Geneva Challenger (Indoor Hard)
FINAL
Matthias Bachinger v Mark Gicquel
Gicquel m/l evens (Sportingbet) 1 Unit
Matthias is a head case. Can only win if his serve is on.
Old man Gicquel has played a nice tournament and just beat Matthias on Indoor Hard in straight sets 3 weeks ago.Comment -
TY SirOriginally posted by Louisvillekid1
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Jano is not all serve.Comment -
Early NBA Play
NY Knicks v Philly 76'ers
Knicks -3.5 -109 (Pinnacle) 2 Units
Key Injuries - Bynum? (Philly) Stoudemire, Schumpert (NY)
Orlando v Phoenix
Magic -2 -109 (Pinnacle) 1.5 UnitsComment -
Really enjoy your write ups. Glad to have you in the forum.Comment -
Thanks mate, I like to read your thread too. Hopefully we are both right about Ferrer, watching the match at the moment and that kid JJ is playing so well...Originally posted by BRUTUSB33FCAKEComment -
sorry didn't mean to be mean... i enjoy your write-up gl to youComment -
ferrer cashes bro!!!!!!
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Ok not a great night in the tennis. Riding the Gulbis bandwagon finally caught up with us and it's almost funny that the guy who never lays juice like I did on the Gulbis m/l (-250) got belted for it. Nada put in a blinder against Wozza and in hindsight (life is always easier in hindsight) I think I was putting too much into Wozza's performances against inferior opposition. Anyway the Ferrer future bet cashed so that we still ended up in the black, albeit by the slimmest of margins (+0.32 units).
Our great start to the NBA season rolls on with an easy cash on my NY-3.5 pick, just looking at the rest of the games now, possible might ad one more pick soon...
Tennis YTD 19-18-4 (+7.56 Units)
NBA YTD 6-2 (+4.8 Units)
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NBA
Pistons @ Lakers
Lakers -7 -120 (Pinnacle) 1 Unit *Most lines are -7.5 I bought the hook just to be safe.
Ok call me crazy but I think there is un-deniable value in the current line, obviously because of the Lakers pathetic start to the season. If the Lakers were 3-0 or even 2-1 right now this line would be -10.5 at least. Regardless of the serious problems going on in la la land right now, I have no problem seeing the lakers win this game and cover ATS. Artest can stop Prince, Howard can stop Monroe, who's gonna stop Kobe?Comment -
Minnesota @ Toronto
Over 189 -102 (Pinnacle) 1 Unit *I think this line is too short, I've actually bought up 1.5 points to push the price to basically evens...Comment -
Wow. Way to inspire confidence in your pick...Originally posted by sandoComment -
Woops my bad - edited - thanks. Obviously I meant Howard, I guess old habits die hard...Originally posted by biggedgeComment -
No worries. Confidence restored.Originally posted by sando
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3-0 today NBA
8-2 YTD (Aprox 8.2 Units)
Lakers -7 pending...Comment -
Doing awesome Sando!!!
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Thanks mate! Funny thing is I'm more focused on Tennis ATM (at least until the world tour finals are ove) and yet getting better results in NBA? Go figure haha. Look forward to focusing 100% of my attention on NBA as of next week.Originally posted by Texas956Doing awesome Sando!!!
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Tennis YTD 19-18-4 (+7.56 Units)
NBA YTD 9-2 (+7.98 Units)
Ok looks like just the one play in tennis tonight although I am leaning towards Djokovic to cover ATS (-4) against Mohammed Ali/Tsonga, but for now it's just a lean...
ATP World Tour Finals
London (Indoor Hard)
Andy Murray v Thomas Berdych
Over 23 -109 (Pinnacle) 1.5 Units
Berdych +3 +109 (Pinnacle) 1 Unit
Berdych m/l +231 (Pinnacle) 0.5 Unit
***Massive year for Murray, played so much tennis and invested so much emotion into the year with the heartbreak of Wibledon loss followed by the Glory of Olympic gold and breakthrough major title at US open. Motivation has to be questioned after throwing away match points against wunder kid Jerzy Janowicz and subsequently tanking the match. Muzza played only 1 Indoor tournament this year for 1-1 record. Birdman loves playing on Indoor hard and these courts have been reported to be slow with high bounce, perfect for Berdych's big serve and allowing him time to set up for his heavy heavy ground strokes. H2H is actually 4-3 in Berdych's favor, with the only previous Indoor match a win to the birdman at last years Paris Masters. Berdych 14-2 on Indoors this year. Expect this to go three, but if not we still have a 2 set out with 7-6 6-4 type scoreline, in regards to the over.Comment -
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Im all over murray -3 buddy. All the best to you.Comment -
NBA
Phoenix @ Miami
Over 199 -105 (Pinnacle) 1.5 Units
Golden State @ Sacramento
Kings -2 -103 (Pinnacle) 1.5 Units
Minnesota @ Brooklyn
Nets -6.5 (Unconfirmed) *waiting for line to be releasedComment -
I finally had a chance to read thru your thread a bit. I think you need to make this quite a bit clearer IMO. You put a play in on Gulbis, but I have NO idea if you are betting to WIN 2.0 units or if you are WAGERING 2.0 units. That is a BIG difference to me. In one case, winning two units means you LOST 5.0 units on that play. Otherwise you wagered 2 units on Gulbis to win like 0.7 units???Originally posted by sando
The only reason I say this is bec I have been keeping an honest record of my plays here for 9 months & it is VERY clear what I am wagering and how much I win on a wager. I just personally feel that if you just put units down & don't explain what they are, then altering your "record" is very easy to do. My plays are laid out as clear as day & before any matches start on those tickets. And I can honestly say, that after 400 posted plays on this site, I am still in the black
I definitely like the thread Sando, I just think the organization as to what you are betting and what you are betting to win is not very clear. I am assuming you lost the 5 units on that loser, idiot Gulbis. That dude has been on my black list for quite sometime now. If you have been watching him play throughout his career, I have NO clue how anyone on earth could put 500 on this unmotivated piece of crap tennis player......
Anyways, good luck in the plays & hopefully you make this thread more legit by clarifying what your bet actually is and how much you win on that bet. This is a HUGE difference, bec the chalk in tennis can be sick. Just saying 1 unit on a play doesn't tell me too much, its way too vague. Bec if its to win a unit, then its prob 1.35 units to win that unit or if you risk a 1 unit, then the payout is only 0.75 or 0.80 units, etc...... (just examples, but I'm sure you understand what I'm saying) The Gulbis is a good example, did you lose 2 units there or 5??? To me, that's a big diff. Obviously, this is only for record purposes. But if you CLAIM to be a good capper, then this is something that you should of done when you first started. I did, bec I thought it was common sense, and I am no tennis capper by any means. I just know more than 98% of people about tennis and the players.
Hope the feedback helps ya make this thread better. I have NO problems with you or your plays. I wish everyone luck who bets the tennis bec I know how hard it can be at times. Best of luck today & the days to come
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One word for you sando. SHARP !
Melbourne cup today. Enjoy your day bro
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Ok just to clear up D-money's question, I bet the units stated, for example...
Federer -3 @ -110 means 2 units wagered on Federer to win 1.8 units net.
Also my records are absolutely exact and re-calculated daily.
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Birdman +3 and the over both deliver for us. Another nice night boys.
Tennis YTD 21-19-4 (+9.34 Units)
NBA YTD 9-2 (+7.98 Units)
NBA starting soon. Updated plays to follow...
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NBA
pending...
Miami/Phoenix Over 199 - 1.5 Units
Sacramento -2 1.5 Units
Minnesota @ Brooklyn
Nets -7 -119 (Pinnacle) 2 Units
*most lines -7.5, I bought the hook as originally capped this game at -6.5
Utah @ Memphis
Grizzlies -5 -107 (Pinnacle) 2 Unit
Indiana @ San Antonio
Pacers +9 -119 (Pinnacle) 1 Unit
*again the line is mainly -8.5 however I'm happy to buy the hook and pay the juice.
That's it for today. No times for write-up's sorry, but I'll try and respond to any specific questions about a game.Comment -
Quick question... what do you mean by "pending..." above the Miami/Phoenix and Sacramento pics?
Originally posted by sandoComment -
Sorry for the confusion mate, just mean that I have posted these plays earlier in the day and was just including them again with the new plays so all plays could be seen in the one post. CheersOriginally posted by Texas956Comment -
Love Sacramento myself. Young team with plenty of shooters looking for their first win of the season at home.Comment -
sandos you bet the cups today?
i am on m.anthos and dunaden small. GLComment
