Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

**Dr.Gonzo** · 08-14-13, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by rohan22no

Theory question for Sando, TGM, benrama, TG, XYZ etc...

NRL based example -

On Wednesday when the odds come out - Friday night game is Team A vs Team B. Team A is $1.50 and Team B is $2.50.

Friday night before kickoff, is it more likely that team A's odds have shortened (to $1.40) or lengthened (to $1.60)?

Considering that all other things are equal (no injuries/weather changes/significant team news etc), please tell me your opinion on what is the most likely scenario and your reasoning.

Thanks.

It's obviously Team A or your underdog NRL trend wouldn't work at the SP.

Beyond the NRL looking at all sports I would assume Home Favs shorten the most, what's interesting is how Home Dogs match up with Away Favs.

I think that might be sport dependent, maybe American markets value Home Dogs more than Euro/Aus markets? Slight edge to Away Favs because of weight public money on the "better" team?

As already stated, The ML market is dependent on the spread market.

**angelo63** · 08-14-13, 12:35 AM

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**Parramatta+14
*Gold Coast +9.5
***Knights +6
**Tigers+22

Eels +14
Eels love playing in Brisbane
In Brisbane the eels are 5-4 up there in the last 9 meetings and a lifetime 11-5 .
Hayne is 5/8 , this has not always worked but one thing it will ensure is at least more attacks on the Brisbane line than normal from the Eels.
Broncos have lost Hodges for the season and that may have deflated them mentally as they know without him they are no chance.
14 is a lot of points for the Broncos to cover, even against the hapless Eels. Friday night exposure will also help the Eels and the forward pack led by Mannah and Moi Moi will at least hold the Broncos forwards.
Any love from the guys who backed the Eels last week? I could not bring myself to take them at the minus3.5 in what was going to be a see saw battle, regardless they won and covered and that’s all that matters.

**Shazzadude** · 08-14-13, 12:43 AM

ITM cup rugby

Two lines stand out for me:

Taranaki +13.5
Northland +8.5

**Dr.Gonzo** · 08-14-13, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by angelo63

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**Parramatta+14
*Gold Coast +9.5
***Knights +6
**Tigers+22

Eels +14
Eels love playing in Brisbane
In Brisbane the eels are 5-4 up there in the last 9 meetings and a lifetime 11-5 .
Hayne is 5/8 , this has not always worked but one thing it will ensure is at least more attacks on the Brisbane line than normal from the Eels.
Broncos have lost Hodges for the season and that may have deflated them mentally as they know without him they are no chance.
14 is a lot of points for the Broncos to cover, even against the hapless Eels. Friday night exposure will also help the Eels and the forward pack led by Mannah and Moi Moi will at least hold the Broncos forwards.
Any love from the guys who backed the Eels last week? I could not bring myself to take them at the minus3.5 in what was going to be a see saw battle, regardless they won and covered and that’s all that matters.

There's no way I could lay 14.5 points but I never bet big against Brisbane at home because they are referee darlings. Considering a small play on Parramatta.

**angelo63** · 08-14-13, 01:09 AM

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I like this play a lot, The Knights did the job last week against the Sharks and now face an inform Storm at home.
The Knights are fighting for their season and at home will certainly be up for a stoush with the in form Storm. This match will be a grindathon with both coaches be trying to negate the others potent outside backs. Kicks will be for touch and the game will be played at a slow pace.

Some interesting stats to come out of this one are,
Knights are 0-6 against the Storm in Last 6 encounters. Although 5 were in Melbourne .
In Newcastle though the Knights have won 9 of the 13 encounters between these two.
Two inform teams , in a tight grinding match , this game will show us if the Bennett polish has rubbed off on the knights after nearly two seasons, this iis the litmus test for them and him.

Have to take the Home team with the 6 points

***Knights +6.5 @ 1.90 (Sportsbet,Luxbet)

**RedDevil89** · 08-14-13, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by angelo63

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I like this play a lot, The Knights did the job last week against the Sharks and now face an inform Storm at home.
The Knights are fighting for their season and at home will certainly be up for a stoush with the in form Storm. This match will be a grindathon with both coaches be trying to negate the others potent outside backs. Kicks will be for touch and the game will be played at a slow pace.

Some interesting stats to come out of this one are,
Knights are 0-6 against the Storm in Last 6 encounters. Although 5 were in Melbourne .
In Newcastle though the Knights have won 9 of the 13 encounters between these two.
Two inform teams , in a tight grinding match , this game will show us if the Bennett polish has rubbed off on the knights after nearly two seasons, this iis the litmus test for them and him.

Have to take the Home team with the 6 points

***Knights +6.5 @ 1.90 (Sportsbet,Luxbet)

Knights are very inconsistent and I could take them against the storm especially that they have hit red hot form! I'd take storm ATS! Knights allow points too easily and have had trouble scoring! The storm on the other hand don't let any soft tries and they can put em past any team!

**angelo63** · 08-14-13, 01:27 AM

Originally posted by RedDevil89

Knights are very inconsistent and I could take them against the storm especially that they have hit red hot form! I'd take storm ATS! Knights allow points too easily and have had trouble scoring! The storm on the other hand don't let any soft tries and they can put em past any team!

Knights have lost 1 of the last 6 matches they have played. Storm have lost 4 of the last 7 played. The knights are performing a little better than everyone can see, the win last week at Cronulla was a very good one, taking on the best club pack in the comp at home and winning is worth noting.

**Ra22moan** · 08-14-13, 01:48 AM

I never place any wager without researching the selection first.

**Dr.Gonzo** · 08-14-13, 01:58 AM

Originally posted by angelo63

Knights +6.5
I like this play a lot, The Knights did the job last week against the Sharks and now face an inform Storm at home.
The Knights are fighting for their season and at home will certainly be up for a stoush with the in form Storm. This match will be a grindathon with both coaches be trying to negate the others potent outside backs. Kicks will be for touch and the game will be played at a slow pace.

Some interesting stats to come out of this one are,
Knights are 0-6 against the Storm in Last 6 encounters. Although 5 were in Melbourne .
In Newcastle though the Knights have won 9 of the 13 encounters between these two.
Two inform teams , in a tight grinding match , this game will show us if the Bennett polish has rubbed off on the knights after nearly two seasons, this iis the litmus test for them and him.

Have to take the Home team with the 6 points

***Knights +6.5 @ 1.90 (Sportsbet,Luxbet)

If Boyd pulls his finger out of his ass Knights can win this game outright at home. Uate and McManus make good meters returning the ball early in the tackle count and the Knights forwards have held their own against bigger packs than Storm.

Melbourne are the best grinding team but I'm not sold on them out competing in the grind for this match. Coming off a little bit of a slump they were dynamic in attack but fell apart against a poor Souths team, they haven't shown the grind for a while. I'd expect a little bit of flash out of them to be honest, and it might backfire.

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 08-14-13, 02:08 AM

Originally posted by rohan22no

Theory question for Sando, TGM, benrama, TG, XYZ etc...

NRL based example -

On Wednesday when the odds come out - Friday night game is Team A vs Team B. Team A is $1.50 and Team B is $2.50.

Friday night before kickoff, is it more likely that team A's odds have shortened (to $1.40) or lengthened (to $1.60)?

Considering that all other things are equal (no injuries/weather changes/significant team news etc), please tell me your opinion on what is the most likely scenario and your reasoning.

Thanks.

As the others have said, it will 95% of the time be the fave getting crunched.
It will especially be true if a big fan base club is playing on Friday night (and even more so at home), like the Broncos, Rabbitohs, Dragons or Bulldogs.

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 08-14-13, 02:18 AM

Originally posted by angelo63

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**Parramatta+14
*Gold Coast +9.5
***Knights +6
**Tigers+22

Eels +14
Eels love playing in Brisbane
In Brisbane the eels are 5-4 up there in the last 9 meetings and a lifetime 11-5 .
Hayne is 5/8 , this has not always worked but one thing it will ensure is at least more attacks on the Brisbane line than normal from the Eels.
Broncos have lost Hodges for the season and that may have deflated them mentally as they know without him they are no chance.
14 is a lot of points for the Broncos to cover, even against the hapless Eels. Friday night exposure will also help the Eels and the forward pack led by Mannah and Moi Moi will at least hold the Broncos forwards.
Any love from the guys who backed the Eels last week? I could not bring myself to take them at the minus3.5 in what was going to be a see saw battle, regardless they won and covered and that’s all that matters.

I like the Eels in this spot, but would have liked a few more points.
I capped the game at 18, but that is not taking into account the Hodges injury.
Let me crunch the numbers again and I'll keep you posted.

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 08-14-13, 02:20 AM

Tigers are the longest priced team so far this season.

TAB has the start at 26.5, which is bordering on autoplay.

Luxbet have them at $12 on the ML.

Very tempted to take them ATS, that's a huge line.

**benrama** · 08-14-13, 02:21 AM

Originally posted by Dr.Gonzo

It's obviously Team A or your underdog NRL trend wouldn't work at the SP.

Beyond the NRL looking at all sports I would assume Home Favs shorten the most, what's interesting is how Home Dogs match up with Away Favs.

I think that might be sport dependent, maybe American markets value Home Dogs more than Euro/Aus markets? Slight edge to Away Favs because of weight public money on the "better" team?

As already stated, The ML market is dependent on the spread market.

Two points:

1) The dog systems or angles out there usually work on both closing and opening prices, but waiting till late to play your bet does seem slightly more likely to get you better odds, though this would be good to test.

2) ML and ATS markets can move independently (small movements at least) depending on book exposure and the significance of the move. I've seen NRL lines move from -2.5 to -3 for example with no ML adjustment.

**benrama** · 08-14-13, 02:26 AM

Angelo - I like Knights too and will auto play them on the ML, ticks the right boxes - home dog, something to play for, etc. HS is one of the strongest home ground advantages too.

Wouldn't touch Eels but Tigers @ $11 that's hilarious! MNF special.

**h3da** · 08-14-13, 03:44 AM

There's alot of reason for favourites to shorten. Bookmaker percentage, mugs chasing on footy after losing their other bets etc, weather, media... There's no precious reason...

**RedDevil89** · 08-14-13, 04:21 AM

Originally posted by angelo63

Knights have lost 1 of the last 6 matches they have played. Storm have lost 4 of the last 7 played. The knights are performing a little better than everyone can see, the win last week at Cronulla was a very good one, taking on the best club pack in the comp at home and winning is worth noting.

You can make the stats look bias to your opinion! Knights have won 1 of their last 4 games at home and that was against the Titans! That dismisses their home ground being a "fortress"! I agree the knights have improved in form as of late but they have under performed when you look at their squad on paper! The knights may have won against the sharks but if you watched the game, first of all they scored a last minute try, sharks couldn't put it away which they should have easily given the amount of chances they had, both teams played shocking and it was a poor game of footy! Not only was it not a convincing win it was a poor performance from both teams! You can't win games playing that badly against the storm!

But hey don't get me wrong mate that's my opinion! I respect yours so I'm not having a go at you or anything like that just giving you my 2 cents!

**angelo63** · 08-14-13, 05:02 AM

Originally posted by RedDevil89

You can make the stats look bias to your opinion! Knights have won 1 of their last 4 games at home and that was against the Titans! That dismisses their home ground being a "fortress"! I agree the knights have improved in form as of late but they have under performed when you look at their squad on paper! The knights may have won against the sharks but if you watched the game, first of all they scored a last minute try, sharks couldn't put it away which they should have easily given the amount of chances they had, both teams played shocking and it was a poor game of footy! Not only was it not a convincing win it was a poor performance from both teams! You can't win games playing that badly against the storm!

But hey don't get me wrong mate that's my opinion! I respect yours so I'm not having a go at you or anything like that just giving you my 2 cents!

Im very happy you are joining in the discussion mate, I love it , thats why we are here to join forces against the evil Bookies. Truly it is nothing to do with ego for me, I just want to know more about what i am betting on and wit the great minds on here we can only benefit.

I did a little digging into the Knights Storm record because the Storm has had the wood on the Knights for the last few years but at Newcastle the Knights hold a strong 9 out of 13 record, But that's not the major influence here. The Storm can be out smarted by some teams and the Knights have the brains trust to do this. Buderus, Gidley, Gower have quite a bit of experience and will execute a game plan that hopefully will put pressure on the Storm machine. Lots more game to get through though. The Tigers line is getting very juicy at 26.5 , at worst could hedge in play.

**Dr.Gonzo** · 08-14-13, 05:17 AM

Originally posted by benrama

Two points:

1) The dog systems or angles out there usually work on both closing and opening prices, but waiting till late to play your bet does seem slightly more likely to get you better odds, though this would be good to test.

2) ML and ATS markets can move independently (small movements at least) depending on book exposure and the significance of the move. I've seen NRL lines move from -2.5 to -3 for example with no ML adjustment.

Second point is true, I should have said highly correlated.

**trigga50** · 08-14-13, 05:18 AM

Originally posted by OZnBa Fan

anything in todays game trigga? ive had some time off lately and been crunching some numbers don't mind la -6.5?

Hey bud, sorry I could not get onto SBR last night or this morning! took Chicago for 3 units at +6 early on Tuesday. The line seemed to high to me I had LA to win by 1 with my predictions. Also got on the early line of the over at 157.5 for 1.5 units which missed by points!! Chicago should have won that game if they shot a bit better.

**MrXYZ** · 08-14-13, 06:11 AM

If Delle Donne hadn't gotten injured they would've won for sure. I was on the under at 160 and it was a bad play that lucked out. I reckon this game would've landed at 165 with her in it.

**OZnBa Fan** · 08-14-13, 07:55 AM

Originally posted by trigga50

Hey bud, sorry I could not get onto SBR last night or this morning! took Chicago for 3 units at +6 early on Tuesday. The line seemed to high to me I had LA to win by 1 with my predictions. Also got on the early line of the over at 157.5 for 1.5 units which missed by points!! Chicago should have won that game if they shot a bit better.

All good mate.. You like anything in tommorows games?

**OZnBa Fan** · 08-14-13, 08:13 AM

"

**rohan22no** · 08-14-13, 12:54 PM

Rohans massively high variance but +EV tips for this weekend

Eels v Broncos @ $5.75
Dragons v Sharks @ 4.25
Panthers v Warriors @ $6
Knights v Storm @ 2.88
Tigers v Roosters @ $13

**trigga50** · 08-14-13, 05:08 PM

"

**h3da** · 08-14-13, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by rohan22no

Rohans massively high variance but +EV tips for this weekend

Eels v Broncos @ $5.75
Dragons v Sharks @ 4.25
Panthers v Warriors @ $6
Knights v Storm @ 2.88
Tigers v Roosters @ $13

No value in taking tigers or panthers. Both teams are horrible and might even struggle to cover ATS

**s2230011** · 08-14-13, 07:40 PM

I would think Panthers are a better chance than the Dragons

**RedDevil89** · 08-14-13, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by s2230011

I would think Panthers are a better chance than the Dragons

Agreed. Both Panthers and Warriors are very inconsistent teams and warriors don't usually travel well!

**Shazzadude** · 08-14-13, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by RedDevil89

Agreed. Both Panthers and Warriors are very inconsistent teams and warriors don't usually travel well!

It's at Mt. Smart.

**s2230011** · 08-14-13, 09:53 PM

Apologies then ... didn't look that up.
Dragons without Dugan or Merrin, not sure where the points will come from though

**angelo63** · 08-14-13, 10:37 PM

Originally posted by s2230011

I would think Panthers are a better chance than the Dragons

Dragons are at Home and it is a local derby, form goes out the window in this type of match. Especially a home dog with 10.5 points in derby, very hard to go past , even without Dugan and Merrin, This is the Dragons last hurrah for the season, small motivational factor re derby , but when dismissed by everyone and at home , knowing a win will get them away from the dreaded wooden spoon , they should fire, i doubt they will win but will keep it close.

**sando** · 08-14-13, 10:52 PM

AFL

Crashed and burned hard last w/e, after 7 winning weeks in a row.

2-6 -6.37 units

Season +11.98 Units

NRL

Ok w/e. Sharks game very frustrating, leading with 1 minute left and threw the game away. Cordner supercoach prop was a joke as well, suddenly the game plan for the Roosters was constant 1 out decoy running for Cordner, meaning minimal (supercoach) points on offence. Going off early with the injury killed any chance of cashing the bet.

9-6-1 +1.64 units

(NRL 5-2 +2.95 units / Supercoach 4-4-1 -1.31 units)

Season +26.89 Units

**davopnz** · 08-14-13, 11:30 PM

i like wellington a lot tonight sando, very strong side.

i like this multi welli/hawkes bay/northland +8.5/abs

**rohan22no** · 08-15-13, 02:40 AM

Originally posted by h3da

No value in taking tigers or panthers. Both teams are horrible and might even struggle to cover ATS

So what would you price them at if you consider the current odds to be no value?

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 08-15-13, 03:07 AM

Sorry, but in a 2 horse race, how can 1 team be a $13 chance?

It is still 13 on 13 and anything can happen.

Otherwise we'd all be rich and the bookies would be the mugs.

**angelo63** · 08-15-13, 03:30 AM

[QUOTE=Tim Gerry Mander;19382358]Sorry, but in a 2 horse race, how can 1 team be a $13 chance?

It is still 13 on 13 and anything can happen.

Otherwise we'd all be rich and the bookies would be the mugs.[/QUOTE

Buster Douglas was 500 to 1 in a two horse race against Tyaon . As we all know there is no such thing as a certain winner . A horse can break a leg and fall