Ambulance chasing profitable in NBA betting
Ambulance chasing profitable in NBA betting
Injuries are a simple fact in all sports, and they can be a goldmine for the savvy bettor. The latest NBA star to head to the list of walking wounded is San Antonio guard Tony Parker who will miss the next month with an ankle sprain. With the Spurs off to a dismal 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS start, look for the odds to start to swing in their favor while George Hill takes to the floor for San Antonio.
It’s a bit macabre, but every time an athlete gets injured, a handicapper makes money. This is especially true in the NBA.
These are highly specialized athletes, unusually tall men prone to sprained ankles and tendinitis. There are only so many elite athletes to go around, and there are only five men allowed on the floor at one time, so losing a key player to injury can really mess up a team.
Or not, if the team in question has a strong enough bench. This is where casual NBA bettors often slip up. Consider last year’s Washington Wizards. After Gilbert Arenas hurt his knee just eight games into the season, the Wiz went 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS in their next 15 with Antonio Daniels and Roger Mason Jr. at the point. Now that Mason is in San Antonio and both Arenas and Daniels are hurt, Washington is in a real pickle at 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS.
Casual bettors undervalue the production that strong bench players provide because they’re just that – bench players. Meanwhile, valuable performers like Mason (18.8 points, 4.0 assists per 40 minutes in San Antonio) and Houston’s Carl Landry (18.3 points, 11.1 rebounds per 40) are becoming cult heroes among sharp handicappers and stat geeks alike.
Mason will be a major piece of the puzzle in San Antonio now that Tony Parker (sprained ankle) is out for the next four weeks. Ex-IUPUI guard George Hill will get the start; it only took him three days to replace Jacques Vaughn on the depth chart, and Hill’s 19 points and six assists in 47 total minutes (granted, a small sample size) suggest that he and Mason can make up for a lot of Parker’s absence – more than the casual bettor might suspect.
The Spurs have set the table by going 1-4 SU (0-5 ATS) in their first five games. As people jump off the bandwagon, the betting odds should swing into the favor of San Antonio supporters. Going on an extended winning tear like the Wizards did last year might be asking for a lot, but the Spurs only need to outperform expectations to generate betting value. Expectations are pretty low these days.
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns
Wednesday, Nov 12, 10:30 p.m. (ET) ESPN
Despite Landry’s yeoman work, Houston is stuck on the launchpad at 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS. Tracy McGrady had two miserable games in Los Angeles, shooting a combined 1-for-16 against the Clippers and Lakers. McGrady admitted later to having the flu. Houston was playing well before making their West Coast swing, beating the Mavericks (-4) in Dallas and staying close in a loss to the visiting Celtics (+3).
McGrady should be back to his old self by Wednesday night. The Phoenix Suns, on the other hand, are dead as we know them. They’re still playing strong basketball at 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS), but they’re a lot slower under the guidance of coach Terry Porter than they were under Mike D’Antoni. The Suns are No. 18 in the league in pace at 93.9 possessions per game, while D’Antoni’s New York Knicks are No. 2 at 100.2.
Now that Steve Nash’s playmaking skills on the fly are being de-emphasized, his numbers look a lot like they did in his last season with the Mavericks:
Instead of dishing the ball to Dirk Nowitzki, Nash is feeding Amare Stoudemire and (when healthy) Shaquille O’Neal inside. That part of the game is working great for Phoenix. The problem is at the other end, where the Suns are No. 18 in defensive efficiency at 104.7 points allowed per 100 possessions. However, it hasn’t been enough of a problem yet to keep Phoenix down. The Suns have a point differential of +4.6 compared to +1.0 for the sputtering Rockets. The over is 6-2 so far for Phoenix and 4-3 for Houston to match their records.
Injuries are a simple fact in all sports, and they can be a goldmine for the savvy bettor. The latest NBA star to head to the list of walking wounded is San Antonio guard Tony Parker who will miss the next month with an ankle sprain. With the Spurs off to a dismal 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS start, look for the odds to start to swing in their favor while George Hill takes to the floor for San Antonio.
It’s a bit macabre, but every time an athlete gets injured, a handicapper makes money. This is especially true in the NBA.
These are highly specialized athletes, unusually tall men prone to sprained ankles and tendinitis. There are only so many elite athletes to go around, and there are only five men allowed on the floor at one time, so losing a key player to injury can really mess up a team.
Or not, if the team in question has a strong enough bench. This is where casual NBA bettors often slip up. Consider last year’s Washington Wizards. After Gilbert Arenas hurt his knee just eight games into the season, the Wiz went 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS in their next 15 with Antonio Daniels and Roger Mason Jr. at the point. Now that Mason is in San Antonio and both Arenas and Daniels are hurt, Washington is in a real pickle at 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS.
Casual bettors undervalue the production that strong bench players provide because they’re just that – bench players. Meanwhile, valuable performers like Mason (18.8 points, 4.0 assists per 40 minutes in San Antonio) and Houston’s Carl Landry (18.3 points, 11.1 rebounds per 40) are becoming cult heroes among sharp handicappers and stat geeks alike.
Mason will be a major piece of the puzzle in San Antonio now that Tony Parker (sprained ankle) is out for the next four weeks. Ex-IUPUI guard George Hill will get the start; it only took him three days to replace Jacques Vaughn on the depth chart, and Hill’s 19 points and six assists in 47 total minutes (granted, a small sample size) suggest that he and Mason can make up for a lot of Parker’s absence – more than the casual bettor might suspect.
The Spurs have set the table by going 1-4 SU (0-5 ATS) in their first five games. As people jump off the bandwagon, the betting odds should swing into the favor of San Antonio supporters. Going on an extended winning tear like the Wizards did last year might be asking for a lot, but the Spurs only need to outperform expectations to generate betting value. Expectations are pretty low these days.
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns
Wednesday, Nov 12, 10:30 p.m. (ET) ESPN
Despite Landry’s yeoman work, Houston is stuck on the launchpad at 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS. Tracy McGrady had two miserable games in Los Angeles, shooting a combined 1-for-16 against the Clippers and Lakers. McGrady admitted later to having the flu. Houston was playing well before making their West Coast swing, beating the Mavericks (-4) in Dallas and staying close in a loss to the visiting Celtics (+3).
McGrady should be back to his old self by Wednesday night. The Phoenix Suns, on the other hand, are dead as we know them. They’re still playing strong basketball at 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS), but they’re a lot slower under the guidance of coach Terry Porter than they were under Mike D’Antoni. The Suns are No. 18 in the league in pace at 93.9 possessions per game, while D’Antoni’s New York Knicks are No. 2 at 100.2.
Now that Steve Nash’s playmaking skills on the fly are being de-emphasized, his numbers look a lot like they did in his last season with the Mavericks:
- Nash 2008-09: 17.8 points, 10.5 assists per 40 minutes
- Nash 2003-04: 17.3 points, 10.5 assists per 40 minutes
Instead of dishing the ball to Dirk Nowitzki, Nash is feeding Amare Stoudemire and (when healthy) Shaquille O’Neal inside. That part of the game is working great for Phoenix. The problem is at the other end, where the Suns are No. 18 in defensive efficiency at 104.7 points allowed per 100 possessions. However, it hasn’t been enough of a problem yet to keep Phoenix down. The Suns have a point differential of +4.6 compared to +1.0 for the sputtering Rockets. The over is 6-2 so far for Phoenix and 4-3 for Houston to match their records.