NASCAR - DirecTV 500 - Preview/Odds/Thoughts

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  • bigboydan
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 08-10-05
    • 55420

    #1
    NASCAR - DirecTV 500 - Preview/Odds/Thoughts
    Location: Martinsville
    Time: 1:30PM EST / 12:30PM CST / 10:30AM PST
    2005 Pole Winner: Scott Riggs #10
    2005 Winner: Jeff Gordon #24

    This week it’s off to another short track event for the NASCAR Nextel Cup drivers as the “Mean Season” continues. The Mean Season actually only consists of six races on the year which are two each at Bristol, Martinsville, and Richmond. Because off the short distances and configuration of the track, all the cars must go slower and as a result the drivers feel much more comfortable bumping and banging each other around the track.

    Bristol is where the driver’s tempers usually reach it hottest boiling point. It’s the smallest track but it also has the highest banking, making the cars stick to the track at maximum speed the same way a roulette wheel has the ball spin round and round. Because of the force versus gravity mix, the cars are able to go just as fast as the cars at Richmond. Despite Bristol being a quarter mile shorter than Richmond, the speeds at both Richmond and Bristol are similar. Martinsville on the other hand is a traditional half mile flat track shaped like a paper clip where the average lap speeds never get over speeds never get over 100 mph.

    Beyond the damage to the cars that each of the driver’s cause, another aspect of the car that takes a beating are the brakes. There are 500 laps around the track. Each of the straights are like a drag race where the drivers mash the pedals, but they can only mash for a short time, then they go through this process of braking, downshifting, turning at maximum speed, and then attempting to exit the turns the fastest without losing the backend. There are 500 laps but two sides of the track meaning this process goes on for 1,000 times. After about 25 turns around each end of the tracks, the brake drums and rotors turn to near molten lava states. Then there are the issues with the heat of the drums damaging the brake lines. If that doesn’t get them, other brake issues will such as the caliper housing or master cylinder problems that occur anytime there is excessive over braking.

    There is no track in NASCAR where brakes are more critical than at Martinsville.

    Martinsville also becomes the great equalizer in NASCAR. It where the driver can make a whole lot of difference in where the car ends up, unlike most of the other tracks on tour where the car takes the driver to it’s ultimate capability. That is why in the past decade of Martinsville races we have seen some huge payouts at the betting window.

    There are some of the heavyweight financed teams that have had great success at Martinsville, but there isn’t another track out there that can claim so many upsets.

    Virginia native Jeff Burton upset Rusty Wallace in ’97 paying off at 18 to 1. The next year, Bobby Hamilton handsomely paid off at 25 to 1 despite being the pole sitter. NASCAR betting wasn’t like it is today, so it wasn’t followed too closely by many books. Hamilton went on to lead almost every lap in route to victory. During that same year in the fall race, single car owner Ricky Rudd took his Tide ride to victory lane despite having the flu. Rudd closed at 60 to 1 odds. In ’99 John Andretti won what was deemed an improbable win for Petty, even though the same car had finished 3rd two years before with Hamilton driving. The Andretti win paid out at 45 to 1. Fast-Forward to 2001 where Ricky Craven won paying off at 40 to 1. Since then, the last eight races at Martinsville have been won by drivers that didn’t surprise anyone.

    The main culprit over that eight-race stretch of not surprising anyone is Jeff Gordon (5/1) who has won four of the last six Martinsville races. Over his career, Gordon has seven career wins at Martinsville. He is a driver who could probably take a lesser vehicle than what he’s given daily with Hendrick Motorsports and have a great run. When you combine his great driving skills with the equipment the team has, it’s easy to see how Gordon has been so successful on this track. As if any more information was needed to show just good Gordon has been there during his career, try this one; In 26 career starts, Gordon has twenty top 10 finishes, of which are fourteen top 5 finishes. That is old school, Petty type, NASCAR dominance.

    Gordon’s teammate, Jimmie Johnson (7/1), has finished no worse than 9th in his last seven races. Four of those races were top 4 finishes that include one win. Johnson would be the closest driver that could compete with Gordon’s accomplishments of consistency over the same span, except the big figure which of course is four wins. After an awful Bristol runs that sent Johnson into third place in points, Johnson should be primed to get things going again. And so should crew chief Chad Knaus. How’s he feel at this point? Four races and leading in points with the interim Chief. One race with Knaus back and all hell breaks loose.

    Kurt Busch has one of the wins in the last eightraces at Martinsville and he’s also driving the car that can say the same thing. The No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge’s former driver, Rusty Wallace, was a seven-time winner at Martinsville.

    To show just how young NASCAR is today and just how good Jeff Gordon has been, there are only a few current drivers today that we can name that we already haven’t who have been past winners at Martinsville. Gibbs teammates Tony Stewart and Bobby Labonte have one win each, Dale Jarrett has a win, and Mark Martin(sville) has two wins. That’s it!

    If looking for a correlation between the two half mile short tracks of Martinsville and Bristol, the only drivers you may be able to look at that have had reasonable success on both tracks are Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart, both of whom had plenty of Sprint car experience before their NASCAR days. On the same lines, especially at Martinsville, Ryan Newman falls into the same grouping with great Martinsville consistency.

    Another Sprint car driver, Kasey Kahne, finished second in this race last year. He has been resurgent this season after a tumultuous first two seasons where a lot of unfair expectations were placed upon him. After five races this season, Kahne is still sitting in second place in the points standings. This will be a real test for him this week, but he’s looking like a much better driver of late and will be up for the task.
  • Illusion
    Restricted User
    • 08-09-05
    • 25166

    #2
    As always, great stuff.
    Comment
    • onlooker
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 08-10-05
      • 36572

      #3
      Here is the starting grid for the race at Martinsville.

      Code:
      1	48	Jimmie Johnson	 Chevrolet	
      2	26	Jamie McMurray	 Ford	
      3	20	Tony Stewart	 Chevrolet	
      4	12	Ryan Newman	 Dodge	
      5	9	Kasey Kahne	 Dodge	
      6	14	Sterling Marlin	 Chevrolet	
      7	38	Elliott Sadler	 Ford	
      8	24	Jeff Gordon	 Chevrolet	
      9	2	Kurt Busch	 Dodge	
      10	16	Greg Biffle	 Ford	
      11	10	Scott Riggs	 Dodge	
      12	96	Tony Raines	 Chevrolet	
      13	43	Bobby Labonte	 Dodge	
      14	22	Dave Blaney	 Dodge	
      15	99	Carl Edwards	 Ford	
      16	17	Matt Kenseth	 Ford	
      17	5	Kyle Busch	 Chevrolet	
      18	18	J.J. Yeley*	 Chevrolet	
      19	21	Ken Schrader	 Ford	
      20	31	Jeff Burton	 Chevrolet	
      21	1	Martin Truex Jr.* Chevrolet	
      22	01	Joe Nemechek	 Chevrolet	
      23	19	Jeremy Mayfield	 Dodge	
      24	25	Brian Vickers	 Chevrolet	
      25	41	Reed Sorenson*	 Dodge	
      26	29	Kevin Harvick	 Chevrolet	
      27	7	Robby Gordon	 Chevrolet	
      28	88	Dale Jarrett	 Ford	 	
      29	8	Dale Earnhardt Jr. Chevrolet
      30	6	Mark Martin	 Ford	 	
      31	34	Chad Chaffin	 Chevrolet	
      32	42	Casey Mears	 Dodge	
      33	55	Michael Waltrip	 Dodge	
      34	66	Jeff Green	 Chevrolet	
      35	95	Stanton Barrett	 Chevrolet	
      36	4	Scott Wimmer	 Chevrolet	
      37	45	Kyle Petty	 Dodge	
      38	40	David Stremme*	 Dodge	
      39	151	Mike Garvey	 Chevrolet	
      40	32	Travis Kvapil	 Chevrolet	
      41	11	Denny Hamlin*	 Chevrolet	
      42	07	Clint Bowyer+*	 Chevrolet	
      43	92	Chad Blount	 Dodge
      Comment
      • onlooker
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 08-10-05
        • 36572

        #4
        Here are the current odds on the race.

        Pinnacle:
        Code:
        [B]Odds To Win Direc TV 500[/B]
        Sun 4/2 11:00 AM 	
        101 Jeff Gordon 	+419
        102 Tony Stewart 	+438
        103 Kurt Busch 	        +1231
        104 Jimmie Johnson 	+616
        105 Matt Kenseth 	+1695
        106 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 	+2748
        107 Greg Biffle 	+2089
        108 Ryan Newman 	+1767
        109 Kevin Harvick 	+5000
        110 Kasey Kahne 	+1085
        111 Kyle Busch 	        +4900
        112 Jeff Burton 	+5000
        113 Carl Edwards 	+4859
        114 Jamie McMurray 	+1397
        115 Mark Martin 	+5000
        116 Denny Hamlin 	+5000
        117 Bobby Labonte 	+2028
        118 Elliott Sadler 	+3621
        119 Dale Jarrett 	+8500
        120 Casey Mears         +12500
        121 Sterling Marlin 	+5000
        122 Brian Vickers 	+3324
        123 Jeremy Mayfield 	+11000
        124 Ken Schrader 	+11000
        125 J.J. Yeley 	        +12500
        126 Martin Truex Jr. 	+6500
        127 Joe Nemechek 	+10000
        128 Clint Boyer 	+12500
        129 Reed Sorenson 	+12500
        130 The Field 	        +5000
        Comment
        • onlooker
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 08-10-05
          • 36572

          #5
          Here is my starting five for my fantasy team. Had a nice week until my sure (Matt Kenseth) win was bumped out of 1st by that azz Kurt Busch. Even with that, I had a nice finish.


          Code:
          1. Jimmie Johnson ........ 48
          2. Jeff Gordon ........... 24
          3. Jeff Burton ........... 31
          4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. .... 8
          5. Bobby Labonte ......... 43
          Comment
          • Illusion
            Restricted User
            • 08-09-05
            • 25166

            #6
            Are you betting this race looker?
            Comment
            • onlooker
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 08-10-05
              • 36572

              #7
              Originally posted by Illusion
              Are you betting this race looker?
              No. I dont bet on NASCAR.
              Comment
              • robmpink
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 01-09-07
                • 13205

                #8
                I like Gordon for the race.
                Comment
                • onlooker
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 08-10-05
                  • 36572

                  #9
                  Originally posted by onlooker
                  No. I dont bet on NASCAR.
                  How times change over the years.

                  Originally posted by robmpink
                  I like Gordon for the race.
                  What made you find this thread and post in it?
                  Comment
                  • bigboydan
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 08-10-05
                    • 55420

                    #10
                    Talk about a blast from the past post from way back in the day. How in the world did this one get bumped back up to the top, looker?
                    Comment
                    • onlooker
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 08-10-05
                      • 36572

                      #11
                      Originally posted by bigboydan
                      Talk about a blast from the past post from way back in the day. How in the world did this one get bumped back up to the top, looker?
                      No clue. Ask Rob.
                      Comment
                      • bigboydan
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 08-10-05
                        • 55420

                        #12
                        Originally posted by onlooker
                        No clue. Ask Rob.
                        Ok, I will then looker.

                        Hey sir, why the bump of this thread?
                        Comment
                        • Optional
                          Administrator
                          • 06-10-10
                          • 61523

                          #13
                          After JJ calls us rednecks and fools every other week, Rob was just showing the forum an example of how the most useful and intelligent posters on SBR bet on NASCAR. ;-)

                          He only had to go back 5 years to find a good post too!
                          .
                          Comment
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