Sebastian Vettel - Who knows Formula 1?
Who here knows about Formula 1? Is this guy that good that he is -150 to win the Australian Grand Prix? The next driver is +400.
-
-
Weather might have a role, rain is possible in Melb later today.Comment -
Anything could happen in this rain, should be a fair bit of drizzle.Comment -
Lot of money coming in on Vettel at Pinny. They have the field to win (anyone except Vettel, Webber, Button, Alonso) at 9.59. I took a shot, if it keeps raining it's going to be a lottery.Comment -
The field now 7.50Comment -
Placed a small bet on anyone except vettel winning before the race started. Seeing Vettel in the gravel was a beautiful sight.Comment -
Button won. Vettel didn't even finish.Comment -
Grate raceComment -
I went back on this and approached it like I do NASCAR races, and I would of actually won the damn thing.
Comment -
usually F-1 best team wins drivers come secondComment -
I can hardly find a post about F1 on these forums.
Is anyone else here interested in it? I do much better betting F1 than NASCAR (mainly because there is so much more liquidity on BetFair, and better betting options)
I go to a fair bit of trouble analyzing stats and putting together my ratings for each race. Happy to share it if there is any interest. I've won on 6 of the 8 races so far this year..Comment -
Definitely share. Lots of interest here
Comment -
Yeah there would be a lot of interest here man.When i first come here there was nothing on Aussie sports and now a lot of people chip in there thoughts on everything from Rugby league to AFL to Netball so it doesn't take long to get peoples interest.I look forward to your thoughts.Comment -
Thanks everyone.
Really pleased to be able to get some feedback on what I've been doing, and hear other ideas.
What I normally do is collate a bunch of stats and work out a track suitability rating for each driver over the weekend before the race. Then frame an early market and try to snipe anything at overs on betfair during the week leading up (I assume it works just as well on matchbook). So I'll probably post that stuff next Monday.
As it's a bit off topic, I might just keep it in this thread for now rather than starting a new one..Comment -
I'll definately keep an eye on your info!Comment -
Sorry I am so late with this. I find it a lot more use early in the week but anyway, here goes.
First up is what I call the driver track stats. The point of which is to identify any extra advantage a driver might have on this track. (independent of form or expected car upgrades etc)
Silverstone Driver Track Stats;
The Silverstone track rates at or below average for all top 10 drivers,
apart from Rubens Barrichello.
Traditionally Silverstone is known as being hard on engines, abrasive on
tyres, and about normal on brake wear.
The weather prediction seems to change daily, but if we end up seeing temps
around 20c I would not be surprised if some cars struggle to get the harder
compound combination of tyres up to temperature. Although right now I hear
something closer to 25c is being predicted. (fingers crossed for the cold I
say!)
Silverstone has one of the lower DNF rates on the circuit, with very few
mechanical failures and driver error retirements at about the average rate.
First lap crashes are a little more common than average.
Track Experience (Silverstone rank out of current tracks in brackets)
Rubens Barrichello (3rd) 17 races, 13 finished, 2 poles, 1 wins, 6 podiums
Nico Rosberg (8th) 4 races, 4 finished, 0 poles, 0 wins, 0 podiums
Felipe Massa (9th) 7 races, 7 finished, 0 poles, 0 wins, 0 podiums
Michael Schumacher (10th) 14 races, 10 finished, 1 poles, 3 wins, 7 podiums
Lewis Hamilton (11th) 3 races, 3 finished, 1 poles, 1 wins, 2 podiums
Jenson Button (12th) 10 races, 7 finished, 0 poles, 0 wins, 0 podiums
Fernando Alonso (13th) 8 races, 7 finished, 2 poles, 1 wins, 3 podiums
Robert Kubica (14th) 3 races, 2 finished, 0 poles, 0 wins, 0 podiums
Sebastian Vettel (14th) 2 races, 1 finished, 1 poles, 1 wins, 1 podiums
Mark Webber (15th) 8 races, 5 finished, 0 poles, 0 wins, 1 podiums
*Rank is out of the 18 tracks they have raced on before. (16 for Schumacher)
Avg Qualifying => Finishing Position (career avg in brackets)
Lewis Hamilton 8 (5.4) => 6.7 (6)
Michael Schumacher 3.5 (3.8) => 6.8 (5.7)
Rubens Barrichello 8 (8.6) => 7.6 (9.8)
Felipe Massa 9.3 (8.5) => 7.9 (8.4)
Fernando Alonso 8.2 (7.7) => 8.6 (7.3)
Nico Rosberg 14 (10.4) => 8.8 (10.7)
Jenson Button 12.1 (10.2) => 9.9 (9.7)
Sebastian Vettel 4.5 (7.8) => 10 (9.8)
Robert Kubica 9 (7.8) => 10.3 (8.5)
Mark Webber 10.5 (9.9) => 13.6 (11.4)
Drivers Head to Head
Sebastian Vettel v Mark Webber
In 2008 on debut in the Torro Rosso Vettel made a splash by out-qualifying Coultard in the
big brother Red Bull, but then crashed with him on the opening lap, taking both
out, and no doubt removing some of the gloss from that effort. Last year he
put in a dominant performance, winning from pole, with a decent gap back to
team mate Webber.
Probably not unsurprisingly, Webber has a near 40% DNF record here, despite
it being one of the lower attrition rate tracks on the circuit. This
drags his Silverstone stats down, but even so, he has only made it to Q3 on
3 of 8 attempts and had never finished better than 8th prior to last year's
2nd placing.
Track edge to Vettel.
Jenson Button v Lewis Hamilton
Both McLaren drivers have below average stats in both qualifying and the
race at Silverstone.
Lewis had an awful time here last year. Starting at the back of the grid and
finishing a lap down. No doubt with the 2010 car he will return to his form
of pole on debut in 2007 and a win in 2008.
Jenson owns a looong string of mediocre performances at Silverstone. Last
year he was dominated by Barrichello in both qualifying and the race, and on
the handful of other years he has qualified better than midfield here, he
has lost position in the race each time.
Track edge to Lewis.
Fernando Alonso v Felipe Massa
Massa is one of only 3 top drivers with a better finishing record than their
average at Silverstone. He has managed to improve on his quali position in
the race almost every outing, although he was out-qualified by Kimi/Michael
4 out of 4 times in the Ferrari.
Apart from 2 poles and a win during his 2 championship winning years,
Alonso's overall record here is just as uninspiring as most of the other top
drivers.
Based on Massa's storming drive last year for 4th, and Alonso's anonymous
fall from 10th on the grid to 14th place finish, track edge to Massa.
Nico Rosberg v Michael Schumacher
Nico only managed to put the Williams into Q3 once in 4 starts here, but
also only finished worse than 9th once, culminating in a 7th place last
year. Although he qualifies a little worse than average, he joins Massa and
Barrichello as the only drivers with better than average finishing stats at
Silverstone.
Schumacher joins Barrichello and Vettel as the only top drivers with a
better qualifying record than their average here. Despite this,
interestingly, he has only won pole here once in 14 attempts.
Have to toss a coin to choose who might have the track edge here.
Rubens Barrichello v Nico Hulkenberg
Rubens is the only driver in the field that has better than average results
for both qualifying and the race, and the only one that shows any
statistical liking for Silverstone really. In fact compared to all the
others he looks to stand head and shoulders above as far as suitability to
this track goes.
He dominated Button all weekend last year and out-qualified Michael 5-1 in
their Ferrari years.
It was great to see Williams appear to take a step forward last race, and
with the optimistic buzz around the team's updates for this race, Rubens is
very well placed to take full advantage again.
The Hulk won an A1GP race here for Germany in 2007, and followed that up
with a podium finish in the GP2 race here last year. So track wise, Williams
are looking good for drivers with track experience again this week.
Track edge to Rubens.
Robert Kubica v Vitaly Petrov
Like most of the teams, Renault won't be relying on gaining an extra edge
from their drivers here this week.
Kubica has had anonymous mid pack drives here the last 2 years, after
qualifying 4th and finishing 5th on debut on 2007.
Petrov has driven in 3 GP2 events here, with a best finish of 5th in the
2008 sprint race.
My Driver Track Suitability Rating out of 10
Rubens Barrichello 8.5
Sebastian Vettel 7
Lewis Hamilton 7
Michael Schumacher 5.5
Felipe Massa 5
Nico Rosberg 5
Fernando Alonso 4
Robert Kubica 3
Mark Webber 2.5
Jenson Button 2.5.Comment -
Team Form and Updates
Red Bull (Webber and Vettel)
Red Bull are expected to have the fastest car at Silverstone, particularly in qualifying. Although lots of development has been ongoing throughout the field this last few weeks, so that is far from a lock right now.
Most other teams came out with a copy of Red Bull's exhaust fed diffuser system at the last race, and given that experience to collect data, and time to perfect it, the field could catch up more this week.
Rumours have emerged this week that they have been using an innovative engine timing setting that maintains exhaust gas pressure when off the throttle, to feed more down force producing outflow to the diffuser entering corners. But only during qualifying and at the expense of engine life. No idea if this is true, but if the press are talking about it it probably means the other teams are assessing it too.
In their favour, Red Bull employed their copy of the McLaren 'blown rear wing' for the first time in Valencia, and should have it well perfected for Silverstone, where that technology is expected to give a large boost in performance.
Mark Webber destroyed his chassis in Valencia so will be driving the one discarded by Vettel as "broken" a few races back. I haven't heard any other specific info about planned upgrades.
McLaren (Hamilton and Button)
The McLaren drivers complained that they lost ground to other teams by not bringing any significant upgrades to Valencia last race. But the plan appears to more than make up for that this weekend.
McLaren will debut their version of the exhaust fed diffuser as well as quite a few other upgraded parts. With the lack of testing there is always a chance they won't all work out of the box, but the way McLaren has handled development for the past 2 seasons, it also would not surprise to see these enhancements help them leap frog Red Bull completely.
Ferrari (Alonso and Massa)
Ferrari have won 4 of the last 8 races held here. Their update package for Valencia did not result in the expected improvement they hoped for, and whilst they have remained mum on specifics, Ferrari claim to be bringing another large update for this race, presumably based on what they learned last time out.
The new Arena section of the circuit, is expected to favour the Ferrari a little more than it's 2 main rivals above.
Mercedes (Schumacher and Rosberg)
Who knows with this lot. There is talk that if this weeks updates don't see them competing with the top 3, development might be stopped altogether in favour of working on the 2011 car.
Will need to watch practice, although that has been deceptive with Mercedes sometimes posting fastest times in first or second practice, only to fail again come qualifying.
Renault (Kubica and Petrov)
The little team that could just keeps on getting better all the time. They signed Kubica to a new 2 year deal this week and haven't stopped talking about another set of updates coming this race yet again.
They appear to be the team that have best perfected both the copied rear wing and diffuser systems so far, and need to be kept safe as a potential contender with the top 2 this week.
Williams (Barrichello and Hulkenberg)
Although not expected to be fighting for a win, there has been a lot of confident buzz coming from the previously lack lustre performing team following a strong 4th in Valencia.
I'm hearing talk of a new front wing, rear brake ducts, tweaks to their blown rear wing and diffuser. Another one to keep safe for a top 6 finish, particularly with Barrichello's good history here.
Force India (Sutil and Luizzi)
This track is apparently well suited to their car design. (which hasn't been the case for the last 3 races) Reputed to have the lowest drag coefficient in the field they have done surprisingly well at high speed corner, low downforce tracks like this for the last 2 years.
I'd be surprised to see them in the top 6, but they have surprised me each time they do it, so maybe my surprise level isn't the best guide here. ;-)
I'll post my pre-race ratings next.
And please feel free to tell me if you think I'm wrong or want to question any of my thinking (or suggest your own ideas). That's what I'm hoping to get out of this, improving my handicapping..Comment -
At this stage of the race weekend I concentrate on picking out 'value' betting opportunities, rather than just trying to pick a winner.
I use a statistical system to rate the field. It takes into account championship position, recent form, form at this track and the opening market lines. I apply a weighting factor to each criteria and come up with a Weighted Rating for each driver.
I then use this rating to calculate each drivers probability of finishing higher than any other chosen driver head to head. And discard anyone with less than 50%. (this usually results in 8-10 contenders left)
I then use the relative weighted ratings of those drivers to frame a market of implied "true odds" for each one. I then use an Excel plugin Ganchrow wrote for me to calculate their true odds of a Top 3 and Top 6 finish... and compare all that to the Actual Odds available.
WR = Weighted Rating, IO = Implied Odds, AO = Available Odds, OR = Difference
The maximum WR score possible at this stage is 29.7. And sorry it's only in decimal odds.
I update my ratings after each practice and qualifying session, and also take into account the late market lines close to start time.
I'll cover head to head matchup odds and what betting options I see from all this next..Comment -
Here's a round up of the betting options I see at this stage. 1st practice session of the weekend starts about 45 minutes from now.
Head 2 Head - Quali
Not much value on offer in Qualifying H2H bets. I use the WR to calculate a win probability for each matchup, and the implied true odds from that. Then look for any bet with a favourite that offers value.
This week there is only one. Hamilton is a 60% chance to beat Webber, which implies true odds of -151, and is on offer at -131. That gives a small 5.4% edge.
I'm not going to bother taking that though. Will watch what happens in the 2 practice sessions today and re-assess.
Win Market
First thing I do for each race is look at the runners that present value on the opening lines. For this race that is Massa, Kubica, Barrichello and Rosberg. I'm looking to bet on them early at at least double what I anticipate their closing line will be after practice/quali, and then lay against them before the race starts.
Basic idea is if I can bet 1 unit each on those 4 at the right price, and manage to lay each off at half that price, I end up with a no risk bet of 4 units on which ever other runner I end up choosing to win. In practice it rarely works that simply for each bet, but sometimes you can find one that you can get on at 5+ times their final odds.
For the market I posted above, if the 4 value runners rank in the predicted positions or better during practice/qualifying, their prices should shorten dramatically when more money starts to hit the exchange market closer to race time. From personal experience I'm guessing something around these odds; Massa +2000, Kubica +5000, Barrichello +9000 and Rosberg +7000... so am looking to back them at odds double that or better.
I've managed to get matched just under +50000 on Barrichello so far, so if my +9000 estimate proves correct I should pick up almost 5 times my wager on the lay end.
For the 5 runners that are below true odds, experience tells me that the ones where the opening lines are most below true odds are the most likely to shorten as money enters the market, and those fairly close to true odds are more likely to lengthen. (I'm not talking about closing prices, just what happens during the time between market opening and first practice)
I didn't get started early enough this week, but would probably have looked to get set early on Hamilton and Vettel in the expectation of both of them shortening, giving me the option to lay one off, if I choose, after Friday practice concludes.
Fastest in 1st Practice
I sometimes have a bet here 'for fun'. Red Bull (+600) usually run a program that does not involve fast lap times in P1, Mercedes (+1000) and Ferrari (+600) often do the opposite. Some of the smaller teams, like Renault (+1000) and Sauber (+6000) seem to pull out impressive times during Friday practice, and McLaren (+300) is hard to pick. This week Williams (+5000), in particular, will be testing a raft of new components in P1, and chances are this will see them doing at least 1 high speed/low fuel run, making them a chance at longer odds to top P1 times today.
I won't be betting on this today, but would lean toward Alonso at +600 and maybe a speculator on Barrichello at +5000 if I was.
I also like to bet in the Qualifying, Qualifying/Winner Double, Winning Car, Fastest Lap, Top 3, Top 6 and Head 2 Head markets if opportunities exist there, but don't think about those until today's 2 practice sessions have been run..Comment -
Practice 1
Not much learned. No team ran on the softer option tyre and few did anything approaching a performance run.
The Red Bulls, uncharacteristically, topped the time sheets for almost all of the 90 minute session. Kubica in the Renault and Sutil in the Force India looked speedy and well setup for the course. To me, the McLarens looked to be struggling with setup, particularly on the change to the new track surface section, although we will have to watch them in the next practice session, a little over 2 hours from now, to see if that proves true. Ferrari seemed to be concentrating on reliability and testing parts only.
Both the Williams cars clocked top 10 speeds, and Barrichello has dropped to about +25000 on betfair, so all looking good for my bet on him so far.
1 Sebastian Vettel RBR-Renault
2 Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes
3 Robert Kubica Renault
4 Mark Webber RBR-Renault
5 Adrian Sutil Force India-Mercedes
6 Nico Rosberg Mercedes GP
7 Nico Hulkenberg Williams-Cosworth
8 Jenson Button McLaren-Mercedes
9 Michael Schumacher Mercedes GP
10 Rubens Barrichello Williams-Cosworth.Comment -
Practice 2
A large increase in track temp from the first session played havoc, with just about every driver having an off at least once.
The McLarens continue to look all at sea, with Hamilton going off at least 3 times that I saw. The Red Bulls started to look dominant, seemingly taking the top time with ease then continually improving it. Vettel had an off, and looked a bit stressed on the TV coverage at only getting within .6 of Webber's time, but overall the Red Bull cars were the only ones that looked neat and tidy on the unsettling sections of the track.
Ferrari presented the only challenge to Red Bull, but Alonso only got within .3 of Webber. Schumacher looked awful. (which doesn't say much for those behind him)
Still can't take a whole lot from today's sessions. Tomorrow teams will install race engines and setups for P3 and run real qualifying simulations. Then I'll start looking at who to back for qualifying and the race.
1 Mark Webber RBR-Renault
2 Fernando Alonso Ferrari
3 Sebastian Vettel RBR-Renault
4 Felipe Massa Ferrari
5 Nico Rosberg Mercedes GP
6 Michael Schumacher Mercedes GP
7 Vitaly Petrov Renault
8 Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes
9 Adrian Sutil Force India-Mercedes
10 Rubens Barrichello Williams-Cosworth
I backed Massa at +6500, looking to use the same strategy as the Barrichello bet.
Will update again after P3 tomorrow morning..Comment -
Practice 3
Red Bull have now started to look unstoppable after P3.
The McLaren updates didn't work and they have reverted to their previous config, which the drivers claimed was already falling behind last race. And didn't show much speed this morning.
Renault tested a bunch of new front wings yesterday, but also reverted back to their original. Williams appear to be the only team with major upgrades that have worked well.
Very hard to bet against Vettel or Webber, but very very hard to split them too. The Ferraris appear to be the only real competition, how much will depend on race strategy and tyre performance.
1 Sebastian Vettel RBR-Renault
2 Mark Webber RBR-Renault
3 Fernando Alonso Ferrari
4 Nico Rosberg Mercedes GP
5 Felipe Massa Ferrari
6 Robert Kubica Renault
7 Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes
8 Michael Schumacher Mercedes GP
9 Pedro de la Rosa BMW Sauber-Ferrari
10 Rubens Barrichello Williams-Cosworth
I've made bets on Vettel/Webber and Webber/Vettel in the qualifying/race double market.
Qualifying about to start now..Comment -
Qualifying and final ratings
The 2 Red Bull cars absolutely smashed them in qualifying. Vettel took pole, but personally I thought Webber looked the faster and most comfortable of the two. The team mis-timed Webbers last quali run and he missed crossing the line, for a last lap, by seconds.
The Ferraris were the only cars to offer any challenge but Alonso could only get within .8 of Vettel's pole time. Hamilton threw the McLaren around in a heroic effort to put it on the 2nd row, and I predict the car should handle better at the slower race pace over distance.
Grid Order
1 Sebastian Vettel RBR-Renault
2 Mark Webber RBR-Renault
3 Fernando Alonso Ferrari
4 Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes
5 Nico Rosberg Mercedes GP
6 Robert Kubica Renault
7 Felipe Massa Ferrari
8 Rubens Barrichello Williams-Cosworth
9 Pedro de la Rosa BMW Sauber-Ferrari
10 Michael Schumacher Mercedes GP
The bookies have written off anyone else as a win contender, with Vettel at -156 and Webber at +320.
Alonso (+1050) and Hamilton (+2000) on the second row of the grid are at good value and well above their true odds, if you fancy either one. Personally I think Hamilton is a better chance to take advantage of any mistakes or problems with the Red Bulls out of the two, but Alonso's car does look better.
Massa, Rosberg and Kubica, each at around +1000 for a Top 3 finish, are the only ones at value there.
Button had a shocker in qualifying, knocked out in Q2, but that may yet have a silver lining as he now has a choice of tyres with which to start the race (unlike the top 10) and could use that to enact a race/pit strategy that leapfrogs some of those in front. For that reason, he is some chance of a top 6 finish, and better than true odds at +300 to do it.
If you fancy Schumacher, he is the only other top 10 driver I think presents value for a top 6 finish, at +275.
The fastest lap market is always a bit of a lottery, as often it depends on who has the newest tyres at the end, and this can sometimes be 'anyone' who gets a puncture with less than 10 laps to go... but I do see a couple of value bets. If Vettel holds the lead and has no car issues, he is well known for trying to take the fastest lap each race, and being in the fastest car, is probably ok value at +260. Alonso and Kubica are also prone to try the same thing and have cars that could potentially do it late race, so I think they are good value at +700 and +3000 respectively.
I'd say a bet on the safety car making an appearance at +140 is good value, due to the new section of track with wide entries for passing and the bump I mentioned earlier. Although bear in mind that due to good run off areas here this race normally sees less safety cars than usual, and the current price against one is -161.
Here's my final ratings (out of 100) for the top 10
Vettel 96.1
Webber 82.8
Alonso 71.7
Hamilton 69.2
Massa 54.1
Rosberg 52.0
Kubica 40.4
Barrichello 33.5
Schumacher 31.8
Button 26.3
No one has ever rated even close to a 96.1 before, so I have trouble going against Vettel, but at -156 I think his odds are way too short, especially considering his recent fragile mental state, and the reputed un-reliability of the Red Bull cars. So my money is going on Webber to win.
I haven't looked closely at the head to head matchups yet, but if I see anything interesting I'll post it later. Otherwise, good luck to anyone having a bet tomorrow, if I'm not the only one reading this thread.
.Comment
