Texas--

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • 5mike5
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 09-21-11
    • 51821

    #1
    Texas--
    Alright fellas we are off to the line star state this weekend for Xfinity and CUP series action. The truck series off off again for the rest of the month. After another great week of short racing at the paperclip last weekend, we look to keep our momentum rolling back on an intermediate racetrack.

    **TEXAS was repaved after last fall playoff race, as well as reconfigured in the turns 1/2 section of the racetrack. The groove has been widened from 60 to 80 ft and the banking the turns at that end of the racetrack has been lowered to 20 degrees from 24 degrees. All this combined does make a big difference. So past history at this racetrack shouldn't be counted on when handicapping this race

    for me a driver/team's current form and form this season in siniliar tracks will be crucial for any early bets. Practices will also tell the tale of who's got what when they u load but later practices after adjustments will also be critical. That said, I believe the same 4-5 drivers that have been rather dominate on this track type in the low downforce aero package will do the same again this weekend. Mostly the 42/78/24/2 will most likely open as the 4 favs imo, and probably have the best odds early barring a Qualifying disaster. But it's still bigger risk/reward on early betting the favs this week especially. The risk may or may not be worth it to you because not sure how much can be gained as I expect very low opening odds.

    And I don't think just because it's a repave that teams that haven't run well on intermediate tracks this season in the new Aero package will all the sudden be better than the teams listed above, just like I don't expect those 4 teams to be lost because it's basically a new racetrack.

    Just my thoughts on it. Feel free to post ur own thoughts as always!



    GOODLUCK this weekend!!!


  • 5mike5
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 09-21-11
    • 51821

    #2
    I expect that Larson, Keslowski, truex jr. and Elliot will be the top 4 opening favorites this week. In some order. At least 4 of top 5. Sadly, expecting all between +650 to +750 range at best. So not sure how much can be gained by early betting here, but I'm sure 1-2 of them will still be best odds of the week, if my thinking plays out.

    Hopefully im wrong about the odds, maybe the books give a little better than i am expecting. But I highly doubt it
    Comment
    • Fedup74
      SBR Rookie
      • 04-04-17
      • 40

      #3
      No value
      Comment
      • 5mike5
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 09-21-11
        • 51821

        #4
        Originally posted by Fedup74
        No value
        post much ur first day signing up on sbr?

        heres a heads up for ya, to be "no value" there has to be odds posted buddy

        Comment
        • 5mike5
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 09-21-11
          • 51821

          #5
          The Greek posted, and in a little shocked by a few of them and JJ being the fav out of the gate

          ill have to take a few when they post at my books
          Comment
          • Optional
            Administrator
            • 06-10-10
            • 60712

            #6
            Originally posted by 5mike5
            The Greek posted, and in a little shocked by a few of them and JJ being the fav out of the gate

            ill have to take a few when they post at my books
            They are probably taking a conservative approach due to the track too. Keeping safe on the big names and seeing what the early bettors think.
            .
            Comment
            • 5mike5
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 09-21-11
              • 51821

              #7
              Makes sense Opti.
              Comment
              • hawk 5
                SBR MVP
                • 09-12-06
                • 3982

                #8
                Originally posted by 5mike5
                The Greek posted, and in a little shocked by a few of them and JJ being the fav out of the gate

                ill have to take a few when they post at my books
                Jimmie's won like 5 of last 11 races here. He's favored for good reason.
                Comment
                • hawk 5
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-12-06
                  • 3982

                  #9
                  Took Dustin Johnson at +625 to win masters. Don't bet golf but thought it a decent bet. Love the Masters
                  Comment
                  • 5mike5
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 09-21-11
                    • 51821

                    #10
                    Originally posted by hawk 5
                    Jimmie's won like 5 of last 11 races here. He's favored for good reason.
                    I'm just shocked he's that low a fav in his current form. This aero package has made him look human again

                    and the track changing "should" mean less historical significance I think. But could be wrong of course

                    probably unloads P1 avgs. Lol
                    Comment
                    • 5mike5
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 09-21-11
                      • 51821

                      #11
                      Originally posted by hawk 5
                      Took Dustin Johnson at +625 to win masters. Don't bet golf but thought it a decent bet. Love the Masters
                      i might toss a few plays out too. And the only 1 I really watch honestly. But I love it too. Might tail u there as I'm far from knowing much of anything of whose a good play on my own.

                      Anybody else u like Hawk?
                      Comment
                      • hawk 5
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-12-06
                        • 3982

                        #12
                        Originally posted by 5mike5
                        i might toss a few plays out too. And the only 1 I really watch honestly. But I love it too. Might tail u there as I'm far from knowing much of anything of whose a good play on my own.

                        Anybody else u like Hawk?
                        Don't know enough. Going to leave it alone and hope Dustin is close sunday. Make it more interesting.
                        Comment
                        • 5mike5
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 09-21-11
                          • 51821

                          #13
                          Originally posted by hawk 5
                          Don't know enough. Going to leave it alone and hope Dustin is close sunday. Make it more interesting.
                          ok, thanks man. Probably gonna throw a few darts today. Thanks for posting I would have forgot about it
                          Comment
                          • 5mike5
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 09-21-11
                            • 51821

                            #14
                            Truex JR (+1000)

                            Elliot (+1000)
                            Comment
                            • 5mike5
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 09-21-11
                              • 51821

                              #15
                              Xfinity:

                              harvick (+550)

                              blaney (+700)

                              **probably parlay Logano on raceday
                              Comment
                              • hawk 5
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-12-06
                                • 3982

                                #16
                                Originally posted by 5mike5
                                Truex JR (+1000)

                                Elliot (+1000)
                                Elliot +1000, Larson +950. U got a great # on Truex.
                                Comment
                                • hawk 5
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-12-06
                                  • 3982

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by hawk 5
                                  Elliot +1000, Larson +950. U got a great # on Truex.
                                  Logano +850. Will add one more
                                  Comment
                                  • 5mike5
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 09-21-11
                                    • 51821

                                    #18
                                    Yeah just lucky that was my first bet or wouldn't have. I tried to bet it again and went straight to +750, now even lower. Odds are getting hit so hard as soon as they post this season it's just crazy. Or they are just just soft moving them whoever gets bet first. That wasn't up 60 seconds. Wasn't ever this bad.

                                    I funding at bookmaker/DSI book in next few days. Have bovada too, but don't use it really

                                    cwetain drivers on raceday seem too be better after people hammer the dimes lines
                                    Comment
                                    • 5mike5
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 09-21-11
                                      • 51821

                                      #19
                                      I noticed u like DSI for nascar too.

                                      Any diff in them and bookmaker? Or basically the same books?
                                      Comment
                                      • 5mike5
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 09-21-11
                                        • 51821

                                        #20
                                        I would have taken Keslowski also, but he dropped too fast to get it.
                                        Comment
                                        • 5mike5
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 09-21-11
                                          • 51821

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by hawk 5
                                          Logano +850. Will add one more
                                          like logano at that price too. And Larson of course. If I'm taking Larson, I better take him soon, He will keep getting bet I have a feeling
                                          Comment
                                          • hawk 5
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-12-06
                                            • 3982

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by 5mike5
                                            I noticed u like DSI for nascar too.

                                            Any diff in them and bookmaker? Or basically the same books?
                                            Don't know about the difference, but its a good book. Different lines than 5 dimes sometimes.
                                            Comment
                                            • 5mike5
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 09-21-11
                                              • 51821

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by 5mike5
                                              Xfinity:

                                              harvick (+550)

                                              blaney (+700)

                                              **probably parlay Logano on raceday
                                              jones>Suarez (-145)
                                              Byron>allgahier (-145)
                                              open
                                              Comment
                                              • turbobets
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 01-13-06
                                                • 994

                                                #24
                                                Surprised to see JJ and Harvick are the fav's. Playing conservative this week with all the changes.

                                                Kyle +105 Harvick - really like these odds
                                                BK +100 Logano
                                                Kahne +115 Kurt Busch - crap vs crap
                                                Newman -110 Suarez
                                                Comment
                                                • 5mike5
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 09-21-11
                                                  • 51821

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by hawk 5
                                                  Took Dustin Johnson at +625 to win masters. Don't bet golf but thought it a decent bet. Love the Masters
                                                  I took bubba Watson (+4800) and J. Thomas (+3005)
                                                  Comment
                                                  • 5mike5
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 09-21-11
                                                    • 51821

                                                    #26
                                                    Weather as of now gonna be beautiful fri-Sunday
                                                    Comment
                                                    • DDT
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-22-09
                                                      • 3757

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by hawk 5
                                                      Took Dustin Johnson at +625 to win masters. Don't bet golf but thought it a decent bet. Love the Masters
                                                      Let us know how you make out on this bet lol
                                                      Comment
                                                      • hawk 5
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 09-12-06
                                                        • 3982

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by DDT
                                                        Let us know how you make out on this bet lol
                                                        No Action. Don't follow my golf plays.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • 5mike5
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 09-21-11
                                                          • 51821

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by turbobets
                                                          Surprised to see JJ and Harvick are the fav's. Playing conservative this week with all the changes.

                                                          Kyle +105 Harvick - really like these odds
                                                          BK +100 Logano
                                                          Kahne +115 Kurt Busch - crap vs crap
                                                          Newman -110 Suarez
                                                          I was as well, but as Hawk5 mentioned JJ is the Texas master winning something like 5 of last 9 races here. I was more thinking of current form with new aero package. But when taking a step back, u can see why JJ opened as fav. Past history does mean a lot for oddsmakers. And for me too usually. But current form is huge too
                                                          Comment
                                                          • 5mike5
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 09-21-11
                                                            • 51821

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by hawk 5
                                                            No Action. Don't follow my golf plays.
                                                            good deal.

                                                            Saw where like 1/2 Vegas books did NOT refund!

                                                            Maybe im use to offshore rules, had no clue some land books didn't refund future bets even if player doesn't even officially start the tourney. That's insane. Bad luck there saw, he's been on fire too I saw on tv. My bets look awful, wish I could be a refund on my 2. Lmao
                                                            Comment
                                                            • 5mike5
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 09-21-11
                                                              • 51821

                                                              #31
                                                              Really thinking of going ahead and adding Larson before practice today when odds go down. since he creeped back up to +950

                                                              Still thibking about Keslowski early too and being finished unless my h2h parlay on Xfinity makes it again this week

                                                              thing is, both odds probably won't get any better, and most likely get worse if I wait til post practice/qualifying

                                                              ill post if I do add anything before the noon sessions start
                                                              Comment
                                                              • 5mike5
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 09-21-11
                                                                • 51821

                                                                #32
                                                                kyle Busch smacks the wall in P1, won't qualify

                                                                will start In rear Sunday
                                                                Comment
                                                                • 5mike5
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 09-21-11
                                                                  • 51821

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Jones and Elliot both destroy primary cars
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Optional
                                                                    Administrator
                                                                    • 06-10-10
                                                                    • 60712

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by 5mike5
                                                                    Jones and Elliot both destroy primary cars
                                                                    Oh cool. Half my early roster into the wall and same for the guy I was wanting to add as well.
                                                                    .
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • 5mike5
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 09-21-11
                                                                      • 51821

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Optional
                                                                      Oh cool. Half my early roster into the wall and same for the guy I was wanting to add as well.
                                                                      hahaha. Yeah me too with Elliot

                                                                      Hoping they still get to qualify line to go thru tech is about 25 cars

                                                                      no word yet if Elliot is even gonna try it

                                                                      syarting in the back on this week will be extra brutal since it's gonna basically be a 1 groove racetack

                                                                      fingers crossed for us
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      SBR Contests
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Working...