F1 - Australian Grand Prix 1am ET Sunday

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    Administrator
    • 06-10-10
    • 60711

    #1
    F1 - Australian Grand Prix 1am ET Sunday
    The new Formula 1 season kicks of this Sunday in Melbourne (1am US ET Sunday)


    One bet I think will be great value is for the Pole Sitter NOT To Lead Lap 1.

    A major rule change on how the clutch works was specifically designed to make the starts more unpredictable. I think anything better than about +150 makes it worth taking blind. Might be double those odds if the books/public haven't caught the change.

    The bet isn't available until after qualifying is over, btw.



    Win Market

    Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) +130

    Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari) +350
    Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes) +550
    Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) +800
    Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull) +1000
    Max Verstappen (Red Bull) +1000
    Felipe Massa (Williams) +10000
    Lance Stroll (Williams) +25000
    Fernando Alonso (McLaren) +25000
    Sergio Perez (Force India) +25000
    Nico Hulkenberg (Renault) +35000
    Stoffel Vandoorne (McLaren) +50000
    Kevin Magnussen (Haas) +50000
    Daniil Kvyat (Toro Rosso) +50000
    Carlos Sainz Jr (Toro Rosso) +50000
    Esteban Ocon (Force India) +100000
    Romain Grosjean (Haas) +100000
    Jolyon Palmer (Renault) +100000
    Marcus Ericsson (Sauber) +200000
    Pascal Wehrlein (Sauber) +200000


    During pre-season testing Mecedes and Ferrari looked like they are going to come out ahead of everyone else.

    Red Bull were only best of the rest but their engine supplier, Renault, announced that they have made changes that were holding them back on power and reliability during testing, so they could be over-priced a little at 10/1 each.

    Either Hamilton/Vettel to win -191 is probably the best bet out of the win market if you like chalk. I'd guess that could be closer to -500 by race day if practice/quali goes as expected right now.

    But I'm waiting until we see Friday practice, at least, before making a bet myself.



    Top 10 Finish


    Lewis Hamilton -1000
    Sebastian Vettel -1000
    Valtteri Bottas -700
    Kimi Raikkonen -700
    Daniel Ricciardo -600
    Max Verstappen -600
    Felipe Massa -300
    Sergio Perez -175
    Lance Stroll -150
    Nico Hulkenberg -110
    Fernando Alonso +100
    Carlos Sainz +100
    Daniil Kvyat +165
    Jolyon Palmer +165
    Esteban Ocon +175
    Kevin Magnussen +225
    Romain Grosjean +250
    Stoffel Vandoorne +300
    Marcus Ericsson +1100
    Pascal Wehrlein +1200


    Esteban Ocon +175 is good value and the odds should drop to evens or worse if he practices well. I think the Williams will not be as fast as Force India giving Ocon a serious chance at a top 8 finish, let alone top 10.



    Fastest Lap

    Lewis Hamilton +165
    Sebastian Vettel +300
    Valtteri Bottas +400
    Kimi Raikkonen +700
    Max Verstappen +1000
    Daniel Ricciardo +1000
    Sergio Perez +10000
    Felipe Massa +12500
    Fernando Alonso +12500
    Lance Stroll +12500
    Nico Hulkenberg +15000
    Carlos Sainz +15000
    Stoffel Vandoorne +25000
    Daniil Kvyat +25000
    Kevin Magnussen +25000
    Jolyon Palmer +50000
    Esteban Ocon +50000
    Romain Grosjean +50000

    Pascal Wehrlein +100000
    Marcus Ericsson +100000


    If you spread one unit across those 12 (dutched) it pays +1644

    With new different compound tyres and uncertainty about speed/reliability of every team first race out I think that is enormous value basically betting that one of the top 3 teams wont make the fastest lap. It only takes someone getting a flat late in the race, or using a weird alternate strategy, to see a rank underdog take it.



    Will look at H2Hs and other exotics on race day.
    .
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