MrXYZ's NRL thread

MrXYZ · 09-02-13, 07:32 AM

Cashed the Eels but missed out on the under. At least it's a start. Realistically the NRL goal now is to break even.

There's good money to be made in the last round. Finals on the other hand will be tough as always. Some players come up with game changing heroics while others just can't handle it & bury their teams with costly errors. It's less about stats than intangibles. I'll be sticking to the basics.

Today: 1-1 +0.60 units +$30
NRL Season record: 74-2-69 -17.2 units -$860

rohan22no · 09-02-13, 11:28 AM

XYZ, forget the goal of breaking even for the season, its just a fancy way of saying you're chasing losses. That line of thinking will cause you to alter your bet sizes and bet things you probably would not had you have had a winning season. On top of that, it will just frustrate and infuriate you if you happen to lose a bet. Would you really have had 3(!) units on the under tonight had you been up 20 units or so for the season? I doubt it.

Base your bets on logic, a thoughtful and honest analysis, and a long term focus. Good luck for the rest of the season!

MrXYZ · 09-04-13, 04:55 AM

Thanks rohan, you know I would not have even touched Parra/Dragons MNF at this point of the season, let alone 6 units on a rubbish game.

Tim Gerry Mander · 09-04-13, 07:52 AM

Load up on the Dogs tomorrow night mate

rohan22no · 09-04-13, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Thanks rohan, you know I would not have even touched Parra/Dragons MNF at this point of the season, let alone 6 units on a rubbish game.

Yeah, setting the actual money goals ("I want to make x this month", or "I need to breakeven by the end of the season") or whatever just adds unnecessary pressure to what is already a very stressful activity...

Bazz27 · 09-04-13, 11:06 PM

Does any1 like the bulldogs for the premiership this year @15, theres alot to like about them for that price. Im going 1/unit @15's before its drops after tonite. At least a can ride a team in the semis with some wallet passion. The big 4 are rubbish value even with rabbits now down to @3.50. Any thoughts guys or is my cash already shredded !!

MrXYZ · 09-05-13, 03:16 AM

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
BULLDOGS -6.0 @1.90 x2

Bulldogs will treat this game as a tune up for the finals & stomp all over the Broncos. Losing value with it opening at -4.5 but a 5 point win is unlikely. NRL teams rarely go for a field goal unless they're leading by 6 points.

Passing on the total. A scorefest is always possible but I don't see the Broncos doing enough to tip it over 44.5.

MrXYZ · 09-05-13, 03:24 AM

Originally posted by Bazz27

Does any1 like the bulldogs for the premiership this year @15, theres alot to like about them for that price. Im going 1/unit @15's before its drops after tonite. At least a can ride a team in the semis with some wallet passion. The big 4 are rubbish value even with rabbits now down to @3.50. Any thoughts guys or is my cash already shredded !!

They'll have to beat an inform Cowboys next week. Realistically they have no hope against Souths, Roosters or Manly.

Tim Gerry Mander · 09-05-13, 04:12 AM

Originally posted by Bazz27

Does any1 like the bulldogs for the premiership this year @15, theres alot to like about them for that price. Im going 1/unit @15's before its drops after tonite. At least a can ride a team in the semis with some wallet passion. The big 4 are rubbish value even with rabbits now down to @3.50. Any thoughts guys or is my cash already shredded !!

I think the winner will come from the top 4 (as much as it pains me to say), but at $15 it's well worth a shot.
They have the players and talent, but something has been missing this year and it is now apparent that the Barba situation really affected the whole psyche of the team.
Nevertheless, they just need to win 4 sudden death games and anything can happen in finals football.

MrXYZ · 09-05-13, 06:00 AM

Bulldogs play heading down the tubes. The only consolation is knowing all the lebs in sydney are getting buried tonight.

Dr.Gonzo · 09-05-13, 06:30 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Bulldogs play heading down the tubes. The only consolation is knowing all the lebs in sydney are getting buried tonight.

MrXYZ · 09-05-13, 06:33 AM

The losers keep coming. Closing in on -20 units.

Today: 0-1 -2.0 units -$100
NRL Season record: 74-2-70 -19.2 units -$960

rohan22no · 09-05-13, 09:47 AM

Bad Luck XYZ, not a bad bet at all - SBR burial to start of the weekend!

MrXYZ · 09-06-13, 12:33 AM

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
ROOSTERS +6.0 @1.90 x3
Game Total UNDER 38.5 @1.90 x2
ROOSTERS +6.5/UNDER 39.5 @3.20x1

Hitting the minor premiership blockbuster with some big plays despite my recent form. A rare parlay as I'm super confident on both the total & the Roosters getting within 6 to cash them all.

Even though ive put a lot of effort into tonights game, this thread is a disaster and I don't recommend anyone tailing unless their are wiling to risk following me down the drain.

MrXYZ · 09-06-13, 05:49 AM

Adding:
SOUTHS vs ROOSTERS
2nd Half OVER 20.5 @2.00 x1

Tim Gerry Mander · 09-06-13, 06:48 AM

Chicken dinner

MrXYZ · 09-06-13, 06:56 AM

Huge night! Had sweat out the Under with some very soft tries in the 1st half. Feels great to smash the biggest game of the season!

Today: 3-1 +5.70 units +$285
NRL Season record: 77-2-71. -13.5 units -$675

Cubanpete · 09-06-13, 06:56 AM

Had the chooks ml tonight. Glad you you had a good night as well xyz! You phucking needed it mate!!

MrXYZ · 09-06-13, 06:58 AM

Thanks mate!

MrXYZ · 09-06-13, 07:47 AM

ST GEORGE DRAGONS VS NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
WARRIORS -10.0 @1.90 x2

Top 8 finish on the line for the Warriors. They'll need a big win against the hapless Dragons, who can't wait for the season to end. Getting it now as it's already moved to 10.5 at some books. Warriors could make a deep run into the finals if the Tigers somehow upset the Cowboys.

the tross · 09-06-13, 07:59 AM

Fuk yeah X. Glad you turned the corner man. Warriors are solid gold. Lets get this shit rolling.

MrXYZ · 09-06-13, 09:37 PM

Thanks tross, good luck today.

MrXYZ · 09-07-13, 02:10 AM

MELBOURNE STORM vs GOLD COAST TITANS
Total OVER 46.5 @1.90 x1

Very high total & Storm may coast through to a win. But the Warriors loss adds extra spark to the game & it should open up with a desperate Titans taking it to the reigning premiers. Purely a situational play. Storm not resting their stars & may be looking to finish in 3rd place for a matchup against Souths next week.

So far every game's gone under this round & all faves have lost.

Good luck.

OZnBa Fan · 09-07-13, 02:17 AM

All 3 games gone under so far and all 3 dogs winning

thevault13 · 09-07-13, 04:13 AM

2 disallowed try will make the under hit!

Unlucky XYZ, this game was definately going over!!!

dRavidC · 09-07-13, 04:36 AM

man oh man, same thing happened to me last night.

that's the nrl for you...

MrXYZ · 09-07-13, 05:35 AM

Rough day. Fukkn Warriors throw their finals chance away then a solid over play gets squashed.

Today: 0-2 -3.0 units -$150
NRL Season record: 77-2-73. -16.5 units -$825

MrXYZ · 09-07-13, 08:32 PM

MANLY SEA EAGLES vs PENRITH PANTHERS
MANLY -10.5 @1.90 x1

Toovey's decision to rest players has pushed the line down & with nothing at stake we could see Manly involved in another round 26 upset. However they still have too much class for the Panthers, and factoring the Brookvale factor it's worth a shot for 1 unit.

thevault13 · 09-07-13, 11:25 PM

Nice play, i thought the panthers would go with em so i took the Manly TT over 27.5.

Good Luck

MrXYZ · 09-07-13, 11:55 PM

Thanks mate. Not looking good with only a 16-12 lead at half time. TT should cash.

MrXYZ · 09-07-13, 11:56 PM

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
Game Total OVER 48.0 @1.90 x1

MrXYZ · 09-08-13, 02:20 AM

CANBERRA RAIDERS vs CRONULLA SHARKS
Game Total UNDER 45.5 @1.90 x2

I could be wrong but can't see where the points will come from tonight. Sharks are flat without Carney & Raiders just want to put the 2013 nightmare behind them.

MrXYZ · 09-08-13, 08:57 AM

Another losing day. Back to where I started the weekend. What a fukkn letdown.

Books will put out low totals for the finals & depending on the numbers I'll be making a couple of big plays.

Today: 1-2 -2.1units -$105
NRL Season record: 78-2-75 -18.60 units -$930

MrXYZ · 09-12-13, 06:32 AM

Finals Week 1
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS vs MELBOURNE STORM
Game Total UNDER 34.0 @1.90 x5

Both teams will look to shut each other's kicking game and there's very little chance we'll see the soft tries that have turned NRL games into NFL scorefests in the last couple of weeks. Every possession counts and every metre has to be earned. Even though a loss is not the end, the winner gets a week off and at this point of the season, it's priceless. My number for this game is 32.5 & I'm rolling with the Under for 5 units.

Finals games can be tough to pick. Too many angles and like I've said before, you can't rely on stats because it's all about who can handle the pressure & who can't. On top of that, players come out of nowhere with crucial plays that turn games upside down.

Good luck everyone. If you're an NRL fan it doesn't get any better than Finals footy. Let's enjoy the action!

Tim Gerry Mander · 09-12-13, 07:16 AM

Bold