MrXYZ's NRL thread

[MrXYZ]

62 points from the Storm! This is fun to watch, perfect footy from the premiers.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Bang, bang!

Nice work today mate.

[MrXYZ]

Bang, bang!

Nice work today mate.

Thanks bro.

[MrXYZ]

Obviously, taking the under in the Storm/Raiders game was my worst call of the season. But I don't think anyone expected the Storm to score 68 points. Meanwhile after a big 1st half, the Titans ran out of steam and the Tigers couldn't find the tryline for a final score of 36-6 to cash the play. Also took the under 26.5 2nd half for the easiest money of the weekend.

Today: 1-1 -0.10 units -$10
NRL Season Record: 60-1-53 +2.30 units $115

[MrXYZ]

ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
BULLDOGS -5.5 @1.90 x1
Game Total UNDER 37.5 @1.90 x1

Even though I'm convinced the Bulldogs won't make it to the Grand Final, they've turned their season around after a shocking start and should roll to another easy win against the Dragons. A road fave on MNF is always a risk so it's a 1 unit play. Also going with the Under and expecting it to max out at 36 points.

[OZnBa Fan]

You gotta get on bet365 pal they have it at 38.5 key number there

[MrXYZ]

I jumped the gun. Waterhouse, Sportsbet & Centrebet now have 38.5.

Adding:
Game Total UNDER 38.5 @1.90 x1

Too good a number to pass up.

[MrXYZ]

Buried.

[MrXYZ]

Bulldogs put on a show to run away with the game 39-20 & salvage the night. Feel like I'm wasting my time with totals. NRL teams have forgotten how to play defense. Any moron who blindly took every over in the last month would've made a killing.

Today: 1-1 -1.10 units -$55
NRL Season Record: 61-1-54 +1.20 units $60

[MrXYZ]

MELBOURNE STORM vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
SOUTHS +8.5 x2

Inglis is near certain to play. Getting it now before it moves.

[MrXYZ]

Inglis won't be playing tonight. My source got this one wrong. I'm buying out. Even if Souths covers it's the right choice. You should always walk away from a bet when pregame speculation doesn't go as expected.

MELBOURNE STORM -8.5 @1.90 x2

Eating the juice on this one. Updated record:

1-1 -0.20 units -$10
NRL Season Record: 62-1-55 +1.00 units $50

[MrXYZ]

PARRAMATTA EELS vs WESTS TIGERS
TIGERS +4.5 x1

The battle for the wooden spoon should be an entertaining contest and for me being a Sydney boy, a local derby is hard to resist. The overhyped return of Hayne moved the line from -2 to -4.5, making the Tigers a great value play. He should've sat out the rest of the season, maybe the club needs to give their fans some hope. There's no way he'll be putting anything near 100% effort with nothing to play for. Even so, at home Parra will be tough to beat tonight. But the losing culture in that team is like a cancer and I have no idea how they can turn it around. Stuart dumping half the team at the end of the year is a start. Tigers aren't much better but with a few younger players getting a shot they might spark some enthusiasm in the fading Marshall.

[Vinnie Paz]

Now that you know he's out, which side (if any) would you of bet originally?

[MrXYZ]

Now that you know he's out, which side (if any) would you of bet originally?

Storm. They're well and truly over their mid-season slump and setting themselves up for another Grand Final appearance. Souths are desperately in need of on field leadership and Inglis would've been a huge boost. Their season could implode tonight.

[MrXYZ]

MELBOURNE STORM vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Game Total OVER 36.5 @1.90 x2

Even my most conservative estimate is 38.5 for this one. Rolling for 2 units. Most books have 37.5, worth a play.It's a dead number in this spot, designed to bait under backers. If you have an account with Sportsbet they still have 36.0 so if you like the over that's the best number you'll find.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

How shit are these touch judges?
Never call a real forward pass, but pull up a normal pass.
FFS

[MrXYZ]

Well that sucked. Sums up my season. Storm game should've gone over. Tigers salvaged something from tonight and kept it close enough to cover. Can't see the point in doing this anymore. At this point in the season to find myself down $5 is a fukkn joke.

1-1 -1.1 units -$55
NRL Season Record: 63-1-56 -0.10 units -$5

[rohan22no]

Head up XYZ,

You're breakeven for the season, but that's not bad and nothing to be ashamed of. It's still better then 90% of the punters out there. Like you said yourself earlier in the thread, you had a bit of tilt a few weeks back and cost yourself a lot - so you "should" still be up 10 or more units for the season had you kept to your standard bet sizes!

You're knowledge of sports betting and capping ability is great - and remember with the variance in NRL its possible for a capper as good as yourself or better to go several seasons losing or breaking even. 180 odd games in a season is NOT a big sample, so don't stress it.

[Cubanpete]

Well said Rohan and keep fighting Mr Xyz. I think things will improve for you going into the finals where hopefully we all clean up!

[MrXYZ]

Head up XYZ,

You're breakeven for the season, but that's not bad and nothing to be ashamed of. It's still better then 90% of the punters out there. Like you said yourself earlier in the thread, you had a bit of tilt a few weeks back and cost yourself a lot - so you "should" still be up 10 or more units for the season had you kept to your standard bet sizes!

You're knowledge of sports betting and capping ability is great - and remember with the variance in NRL its possible for a capper as good as yourself or better to go several seasons losing or breaking even. 180 odd games in a season is NOT a big sample, so don't stress it.

Thanks rohan. I Just had to blow off some steam. You're right, had I stuck to 1-2 units per play I'd be comfortably ahead this year. Over a sample size of 10+ NRL seasons I don't think many cappers would be showing a profit. The X factor in the NRL is inside info.

[MrXYZ]

Well said Rohan and keep fighting Mr Xyz. I think things will improve for you going into the finals where hopefully we all clean up!

Thanks mate, looking forward to the finals!

[MrXYZ]

SYDNEY ROOSTERS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
RAIDERS +13.5 @1.90 x1

Raiders were smashed last week making this is a BBF play. However Roosters have been raping teams all season and could win 42-0. 1 unit max risk.

CRONULLA SHARKS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Game Total UNDER 38.5 @1.90 x1

Classic set up for an under.

Someone PMed me asking about writeups but it's not my style to do much beyond a few lines. I've done my work and don't need to prove it to anyone on here. Having said that there's some great cappers on this forum who are also talented writers and it's valuable to see their thought process.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Too many people are reading into this BBF.
It applies in certain situations, but not when the handicap is way more than the line on offer.
The Raiders are a terrible away team with a terrible coach.
Apart from the top teams, the Chooks have demolished mediocre teams and I see now reason why this changes tonight.

[the tross]

Totally agree TGM . And Campese really sux the last few games. Got roosters rolling in a few parlays ML and ATS .

[the tross]

Love the shark/ knights under Mr Xyz and bol but ill be going to the game and playing unders really fuks up enjoyment so im on sharks ATS -5.5 for 1 unit degen play.

[MrXYZ]

SYDNEY ROOSTERS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
Game Total OVER 42.5 @1.90 x2

[MrXYZ]

Love the shark/ knights under Mr Xyz and bol but ill be going to the game and playing unders really fuks up enjoyment so im on sharks ATS -5.5 for 1 unit degen play.

I know what you mean, nothing worse than being at the game and not wanting to see some points. Good luck with the Sharks.

[MrXYZ]

Cash all 3 plays! Roosters beat the Raiders 28-22, total sails over & Ferguson scores to secure the cover. Afterwards the Under was never in doubt as the Knights pulled out a last minute upset over the Sharks 18-14.

The goal now is to be ahead 10 units by the start of the finals.

3-0 +3.6 units +$180
NRL Season Record: 66-1-56 +3.50 units +$175

[MrXYZ]

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs ST GEORGE DRAGONS
BRONCOS -8.5 @1.90 x1

Broncos at home should be too strong for the fading Dragons. Books want money on the road team hence the extra 0.5 point.

[MrXYZ]

Fukkn Dragons, played hard to bury the play and I reckon they should've won. Broncos unable to put teams away this year.

PENRITH PANTHERS vs NORTH QLD COWBOYS
COWBOYS -6.5. @1.90 x1
Game Total OVER 42.5 @1.90 x1

Taking the bait on the Cowboys. Probably not a good idea considering it opened at -5.5. Their away record is terrible but JT should steer them to an easy win against the Panthers. Also taking the over. The best number is being offered by Sportsbet at 42.5.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Like the over too, both teams have good kickers and I expect points.

Not too sure about the line mate, that 0.5 might cost you.

[MrXYZ]

Like the over too, both teams have good kickers and I expect points.

Not too sure about the line mate, that 0.5 might cost you.

Yeah I got the worst number. A few books are showing -6.0 now. Still think Cows win by double digits.

[the tross]

On tilt and on this Mr Xyz .

[rohan22no]

why u on tilt tross?

[the tross]

why u on tilt tross?

Shocking round oz footy into an mlb nightmare today 1 from 9 .knew this day was due.