MrXYZ's NRL thread

[MrXYZ]

Losing day. Should've laid off the Broncos/Dragons game. Cowboys huge 2nd half easily covered the points but the last 10 minutes of that game was a mess & killed the over.

1-2 -1.1 units -$55
NRL Season Record: 67-1-58 +2.40 units +$120

[MrXYZ]

CANTERBURY BULLDOGS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
Game Total UNDER 44.5 @1.90 x3

Books posted a sharp number, but didn't factor in the weather. The wind will have a serious impact on both teams kicking game. UNDER is the play tonight. Also expecting the Bulldogs defensive effort to contain the Titans.

[benrama]

What's the Titans team total? I'm thinking the under there might be even stronger - thoughts?

Edited: it's only 12.5, no play. Bulldogs total is only 28.5 too (this is @sportsbet) looks like books might be slightly showing their hand to the under

[Gee]

What's the Titans team total? I'm thinking the under there might be even stronger - thoughts?

Edited: it's only 12.5, no play. Bulldogs total is only 28.5 too (this is @sportsbet) looks like books might be slightly showing their hand to the under

14.5 sportingbet, Bulldogs at 29.5.

[benrama]

14.5 sportingbet, Bulldogs at 29.5.

Thanks Gee, I should rephrase that as Sportsbet showing their hand; though from a team total perspective 12.5 is not a hell of a lot different from 14.5 (as 2 of 3 conversion misses with Sezer is unlikely) and same with 28.5 and 29.5.

I think this will player prop night for me ...

[Gee]

Thanks Gee, I should rephrase that as Sportsbet showing their hand; though from a team total perspective 12.5 is not a hell of a lot different from 14.5 (as 2 of 3 conversion misses with Sezer is unlikely) and same with 28.5 and 29.5.

I think this will player prop night for me ...

Yes, gotcha. Considering they have the total at 42.5 as well, they definitely have a lean.

Titans TT u/2.5 tries is at $1.71 at sportsbet, so obviously 14.5 @ 1.90 has a bit more value to it, although you're prob right - Titans won't go for 2 and Sezer won't miss, so it won't make a difference.

Gimme a player prop winner!

[MrXYZ]

Adding:
TITANS team Total UNDER 14.5 @1.90 x1

Thanks Gee & Ben, hadn't thought about team totals for this game. Titans under is a solid play for 1 unit.

Sportsbet had a promotion for the Storm/Rabbitohs game, a money back offer on ML bets if your team scored 16 points and lost. I didn't give it much thought then but looking at it now should've had a play on the Souths team total Under.

[MrXYZ]

MNF strikes again with the Titans winning 26-16. Cashed the big play to secure a winning end to Round 22!

Today: 1-1 +1.7 units +$85
NRL Season Record: 68-1-59 +4.1 units +$205

[Dr.Gonzo]

Good job to get back in positive units this week mate.

[benrama]

Phew - I ended up on the under too and it never felt easy! Great upset by GC, can't believe I yet again didn't pull the trigger on a ML bet on such a big underdog.

Here's to ending the season strong.

[s2230011]

GC deserved the win today. Dogs were arrogant and thought they will just flick a switch and steam roll them but the Titans had much more resolve than the Dragons.
How does Hodkinson not take a shot at goal when down by two in the second half? They thought it won't be that close, at the end that two points were big

[Tim Gerry Mander]

GC deserved the win today. Dogs were arrogant and thought they will just flick a switch and steam roll them but the Titans had much more resolve than the Dragons.
How does Hodkinson not take a shot at goal when down by two in the second half? They thought it won't be that close, at the end that two points were big

I think he picked up an injury in scoring the try.
That was a momentum killer when Inu hit the post.
The "No Try" off the next set that looked like it should have been a try changed the game around as it went 18-10 GC instead of 16-12 Dogs.

Full credit to the Titans, they muscled up and won it in the forwards - Ryan James was a phucking machine.

Interesting stats on the Bulldogs in their last 20 games:

They have only won once when conceding the first try.
They have only won twice when behind at HT.
They have won 8/8 when ahead at HT.

Good spot to live bet them.

[s2230011]

I'm sure he picked up a knock, but he was more than well enough to take the conversion judging by how he completed the game.
To be honest that's not good enough, I would be fuming if I was Hasler. Players at this stage of the season should be killing for every point in a tight contest.
I agree, thought it was a try but can see how they didn't give it.

[MrXYZ]

Dogs came into the game expecting an easy win & got what they deserved. GC's determination shell shocked them early. A shocking error by the touch judges, how was that not a try?

I was sweating out the under too, for a split second thought that charge down was going to result in a try.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Dogs came into the game expecting an easy win & got what they deserved. GC's determination shell shocked them early. A shocking error by the touch judges, how was that not a try?

I was sweating out the under too, for a split second thought that charge down was going to result in a try.

Which try were you referring to?
As for the touchies, they are redundant in our game.
Make far too many stupid mistakes, never call forward passes, never come into the field anymore, never put a flag up.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Which try were you referring to?
As for the touchies, they are redundant in our game.
Make far too many stupid mistakes, never call forward passes, never come into the field anymore, never put a flag up.

NRL touchie

[MrXYZ]

PARRAMATTA EELS vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
PARRA +15.5 @1.90 x1

Most books have 14.5. I found this number at TAB NSW. Broncos are tough at home but their season is looking shaky. The Knights game is coming back to haunt them, and after losing Hodges to injury they barely held on to beat the Dragons. Next up they have Penrith, Knights and Bulldogs. Realistically the most points they'll end up with is 27, with 25 most likely. It might not be enough. Meanwhile Parra are set to keep Hayne at five-eighth this week and although the odds of them winning 2 in a row are slim they have an excellent shot at covering the generous spread.

[MrXYZ]

SOUTHS RABBITOHS vs MANLY SEA EAGLES
MANLY ML @1.90 x1

Sando & Dr Gonzo's debate has provided great reading and there's not much I can add. Rolling with the inform team & at 1.90 (Sportsbet) it's too good to pass up. Pure and simple. From what I hear this one of the most heavily bet NRL games of the year so far, but with two very evenly matched teams and angles galore its strictly 1 unit on the line for me.

Passing on both totals tonight.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Good luck mate

Would you place a small bet on Eels ML?

[MrXYZ]

Thanks mate, great minds think alike on the Eels tonight. Good luck to us.

Tempted to sprinkle the ML but I can't see them winning. Maybe an action play in the $10-20 range.

[Domestic]

Backdoor eels cover!

[angelo63]

Watching Parramatta try to score a try was very painful, lucky i had them on a different screen and was more enthralled by the Rabbitohs and Sea Eagles. 14 was a generous number , but so painful to watch them.

[MrXYZ]

Parra not worth betting on for the rest of the season. Lucky to cover tonight. Broncos settled for the easy win, under Lockyer this would been 50-0.

Manly got beaten but it was worth a shot, no regrets there.

Today: 1-1 -1units -$5
NRL Season Record: 69-1-60 +4 units +$200

[MrXYZ]

CANBERRA RAIDERS vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Game Total OVER 42.5 @1.90 x2

Expecting a high scoring game & rolling with the OVER for 2 units.

[MrXYZ]

Cash it!

[MrXYZ]

ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs CRONULLA SHARKS
ST GEORGE Team Total UNDER 13.5 @1.90 x1

No Dugan, no points. Dragons will be lucky to score 1 try tonight.

[MrXYZ]

Halftime play:

2nd Half Total UNDER 20.5 @1.90 x1

Centrebet's 2nd half market. They let you place bets online - not technically live so they are getting away with it for now.

[MrXYZ]

Pleased with a winning day but it's time to scale back my plays until the finals. NRL is becoming wildly unpredictable and the shocking calls by the refs are making it worse. Sharks deserved to lose tonight. No way that try should've been awarded. Going to carefully pick my spots and unless a play screams out at me I'll sit on the sidelines.

Today 2-1 +1.70 units +$85
NRL Season Record: 71-1-61 +5.70 units +$285

[MrXYZ]

WESTS TIGERS vs SYDNEY
ROOSTERS
Game Total OVER 48.5 @1.90 x1

26.5 is one of the biggest spreads I've ever seen in the NRL. Unplayable and anyone risking serious money on it should quit gambling. The high total has scared away punters but if Roosters get rolling this could be the easiest money of the round. Tigers couldn't even defend against Parra & it's hard to see them showing much effort once they're down by 18 points early in the game.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Good luck mate

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I think you owe Benji a beer mate - he can't set up any trys for the Tigers, so he starts setting them up for the Roosters.

[MrXYZ]

how easy was that! It played out as I expected for once. Marshall might not make his 200th game based on what we saw tonight, he seems hellbent on destroying his legacy.

[MrXYZ]

Cashed the over to end the round with a win. Had a 2nd half play on the Roosters -12.5 as well, an autoplay if there ever was one.

Of the early lines I like these dogs, no work done yet, just from looking at what's on offer:

Penrith +1.5 vs Broncos
Knights +4.0 vs Cowboys
Bulldogs +6.5 vs Souths

MNF: 1-0 +0.90 units +$45
NRL Season Record: 72-1-61 +6.60 units +$330

[Tim Gerry Mander]

With you on the first 2

[angelo63]

I like Penrith as well. Will have a good look at them all tonight. There is a case for the Raiders though with the 6.5 at home. Motivation will be there for them this week. manly have not played here for a few years and the Raiders have performed well against them up at Brooky the last couple of seasons.