MrXYZ's NRL thread

[Cubanpete]

Tough break on the Aussie over. I had the under at 64.5 and 63.5 as I was confident the USA would not add anything to the scoreline.

Go lucky with JT missing so many an wasting so much time when kicking for goal.

[MrXYZ]

JT took forever and still missed lol.

[MrXYZ]

SAMOA vs FIJI
SAMOA -2.5 @1.90 x1

These proud nations will fight all the way to the end, and with plenty of NRL talent on show it'll be the only real contest we've seen in the quarter finals. Square play but Samoa is the stronger team and I expect them cover the points in this situation. Just 1 unit.

Some books have 3.5 which is still worth a play. 3 point wins are rare in Rugby League so an unconverted try (worth 4 points) will cash the play.

[MrXYZ]

Got this one wrong. Fiji too good today. They're in the Semi Finals with a 22-4 win over Samoa.

Today: 0-1 -1.0 units -$50
World Cup: 7-6 +6.3 units $315

[MrXYZ]

Semi Finals this weekend. Lines from Centrebet:

New Zealand ML @1.40 -6.5 @1.91 vs England ML @3.00 +6.5 @1.91

Australia -36.5 @1.91 vs Fiji +36.5 @1.91

The whole planet expects a NZ vs Australia final and with good reason. A Fiji vs England showdown is virtually impossible. NZ's been the best team so far and should have the goods to beat England. Can they cover -6.5? Will have to think about it more.

The Australians meanwhile have been coasting through most of the tournament, demolishing the USA without much effort. Another huge win could be in store but with the likes of Uate & the Sims brothers on board, Fiji have a shot at covering the 36.5 points. I am a bit biased though, it's Petero Civoniceva's final game and the champion player deserves a better ending to his career than a 50-0 thrashing.

No plays yet.

[Dr.Gonzo]

If the weather is ok I think AUS cover the 36.5.

The NZ/ENG match was a traders dream.

At the start of the tournament I was very bullish about NZ's chances, and the market has now adjusted to the point where that opinion has been vindicated, but I can see strong angles for both teams in this match.

[sando]

If the weather is ok I think AUS cover the 36.5.

The NZ/ENG match was a traders dream.

At the start of the tournament I was very bullish about NZ's chances, and the market has now adjusted to the point where that opinion has been vindicated, but I can see strong angles for both teams in this match.

I was the other way around. At the start of the tournament I was all over England but now I am not so sure. Such a bizzare match, as NZ clearly have the better overall team and yet you could argue that England have 3 or 4 of the best half dozen players on the park (Tomkins, Charnley, Sam Burgess).

[thorny]

based on current tournament form, i'm leaning to NZ -6.5

[MrXYZ]

TAB NSW has England +8.5 @1.80 & NZ -8.5 @2.00

It's being played at Wembley, not sure how much of a factor that will be. England could choke. They were sloppy against France & will get hammered if they can't hold on to the ball this week.

I might go for this futures bet. Sportsbet's being too generous with NZ to win the world cup @4.00. Centrebet has 2.75, Waterhouse 3.30 & TAB NSW 3.25.

[Dr.Gonzo]

I was the other way around. At the start of the tournament I was all over England but now I am not so sure. Such a bizzare match, as NZ clearly have the better overall team and yet you could argue that England have 3 or 4 of the best half dozen players on the park (Tomkins, Charnley, Sam Burgess).

NZ are a great underdog but I don't think they're the kind of team that is ever a moral against competitive opposition. I'm giving a lot of weight to the home ground advantage but I'm thinking England represent value as such a large home dog against a group of inconsistent players. The officials could be intimidated, it'll make for a better world cup in England go through. In Australia or NZ I'd be going the other way but things are they way they are I'm going to have England for a better result.

[Dr.Gonzo]

TAB NSW has England +8.5 @1.80 & NZ -8.5 @2.00

It's being played at Wembley, not sure how much of a factor that will be. England could choke. They were sloppy against France & will get hammered if they can't hold on to the ball this week.

I might go for this futures bet. Sportsbet's being too generous with NZ to win the world cup @4.00. Centrebet has 2.75, Waterhouse 3.30 & TAB NSW 3.25.

4.70 on the fair. I just think Australian books have got heavy action on NZ and little for England, they'll probably still get mug money at unders.

[MrXYZ]

Semi Final
NEW ZEALAND vs ENGLAND
ENGLAND +8.0 @1.90 x2

Thanks Sando & Gonzo for your insights.

Found this number at Centrebet. I've been going back and forth on it all day and decided to pull the trigger on England. Can't go past the value of the home team getting 8 points in a semi final. They have the talent to challenge NZ, who've had an easy run smashing mostly sh#t teams to get here. The world champions should win tonight but I'm expecting it to be close.

TAB NSW has +8.5 @1.85 in case anyone wants that extra half point.

[MrXYZ]

Cash it! Final score 20-18. The best game of the World Cup, what a thriller! England was on their way to the final until NZ's last second try by Johnson.

Today: 1-0 +1.80 units +$90
World Cup: 8-6 +8.10 units $405

[MrXYZ]

Lines for the final:

Australia ML @1.30 -8.5 @1.91 vs New Zealand ML @3.55 +8.5 @1.91

I'm placing my bet later in the week on Australia to cover the points. If you like revenge angles, this is one of the biggest in the history of sports. The Aussies lost to NZ at the 2008 World Cup Final in Brisbane, 20-34, and have been waiting 5 years for this moment. I clearly remember seeing that game in a city pub and it seemed like the whole country was watching in shock. Coach Ricky Stuart went ballistic at the refs afterwards and had to resign.

While NZ have been impressive and the game could be close at half time, the Aussies will at some point start firing on all cylinders and pull away to a 10+ point win.

Update:

AUSTRALIA vs NEW ZEALAND
AUSTRALIA -8.5 @1.90 x1

Rolling with the Aussies as outlined above.

[MrXYZ]

Easy money! Australia smash NZ 34-2 to win the World Cup. All up an excellent tournament, ended with +9 units and $450 in profit!

Today: 1-0 +0.90 units +$45
World Cup: 9-6 +9.0 units $450

[MrXYZ]

The year in review:

NRL Regular Season : 78-2-75 -18.60 units -$930

NRL Finals: 8-5 +11.70 units +$585

Rugby League World Cup: 8-6 +8.10 units $405

A lot went wrong this season and this is an opportunity to lay it all out for the benefit of new and experienced sports bettors out there.

The Finals and World Cup restored some hope but it was easily my worst season in the NRL. Buried myself, chased losses, tilt plays, etc.

Reasons for this:

1. Reduced my unit size this year to $50. The point was to keep sports betting in its place as a hobby but it backfired. Used it as an excuse to dump 5 units on chase plays because it seemed smaller risk, but in the end it was poor discipline. When I was risking $200 per unit would've never done sh#t like this.

2. Ego. Embarrassing to admit. Coming back after 2 winning seasons on SBR my goal was to do even better. Put too much pressure on myself to hit winners. Having people lose real money following my plays is horrible. Running a thread after a while starts to become an ego trip, which is ridiculous because it's just a gambling forum and who gives a sh#t right? But maybe some of you guys will agree, being successful on SBR validates the work you put into sports betting in some ways and it feels good to be a winner in a sea of losing gamblers. It affects judgement, discipline and decision making when you're on a losing streak, but this is magnified when all your plays are posted on SBR.

3. Live betting with half-time plays. A disaster. Chasing losses, plain greed, trying to be clever and going for middles, you name it.

4. Shocking beats. Lost the Bulldogs/Parra game total thanks to a scoreless second half. Unbelievable some of the sh#t that happened this season.

5. Did not make adjustments on totals. Towards the end of the season I was expecting defenses to tighten up with finals spots on the line, like previous years, but was completely wrong. Teams just did not commit to stopping tries and we saw scorefests galore. My theory is the peptide scandal, and players saving themselves for the finals, not having the drugs to speed up recovery from the gruelling demands of defending in the NRL. Any moron blind betting overs would've killed totals but I got caught trying to overthink what was plainly obvious.

Thanks to everyone who stopped by and offered their comments. Rohan22no, Sando, Hawley, Tim Gerry Mander Therealdealau, Lordkai35,That Guy, ExodusNZ, Gonzo, dRavidC, The Tross, (sorry if I've left anyone out) you're all legends. I turned into an idiot at times and my apologies go out to Benrama and Gee who pointed out my stupid antics.


That's it for Rugby League until 2014. Merry Xmas and enjoy the holidays everyone.

[hawley]

Respect for the review and acknowledging a tough season.

You've cleaned up for the two seasons prior to this and you will be back next season.

Looking forward to it.

Enjoy the festive season!

[rohan22no]

Nice one XYZ, great bit of self reflection. Very honest.

When you feel yourself start to tilt in the next season after a few beats (inevitably will happen at some point), come back to this post and read over it.

Look forward to your thread in the new year!

[lordkai35]

Mate respect for that reflection
At the end of the day betting is always a learning curve. Dw bout not being able to rake in the cash this season. I'm sure alot of guys out there. Even outside of more sports thread, made money or learnt from your plays. We are a family here and any contribution helps everyone. I have to admit to alot of what u wrote myself. Also nrl refs cost us a lot this season. Great way to finish with wc and finals!!

Merry Xmas everyone!
Already got a feeling we"ll kill 2014

[justkyle88]

Bumping this just in time for NRL seasons

[MrXYZ]

'The greatest game of all' is back! If you're new to betting the NRL or sports in general, read post #1556, and learn from my mistakes.

Unit size is same as last year, $50.

SOUTHS RABBITOHS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Game Total OVER 37.5 @1.85 x2

The much hyped opener should result in the Roosters covering the -3.5 line, however opening games are difficult to forecast and for me the OVER is a stronger play. It could scrape home by the hook or land on 42. Both teams looking for an early edge in what could be the grand final of season 2014.

Good luck with your plays everyone.

[MrXYZ]

Terrible start to the season. 28-8 final score. Burgess killed the over with some stupid errors.

Moving on:

CANTERBURY BULLDOGS vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
BULLDOGS -4.5 @1.94 x1

Square play. I'm expecting a solid home win for the Dogs.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Like the under 39.5 and Dogs 1-12.

[MrXYZ]

Broncos with a gutsy 18-12 win today. Got this one totally wrong. Easy to make excuses but I do think the video ref shouldn't have awarded that try to Maranta, considering what we saw last year. Bulldogs won't make the top 4 this season. They might scrape into the finals and even then get knocked out in the first round.

NRL Season record: 0-2 -3 Units - $150

[MrXYZ]

Like the under 39.5 and Dogs 1-12.

Nice call on the Under. Never in doubt.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

There must have been 20 penalties in that game
The broncos worked the ruck better and took advantage of slowing the play down, especially when defending their line.
Once again the Dogs were inept in attack - they get a play right, like the Williams try - then shelve it for dummy half runs.

The Broncos were poor also - they really have some issues in the halves. Ben Hunt is terrible and Hoffman is way out of his depth at 5/8th.
They really need to find a decent 7 or 6.

[MrXYZ]

PENRITH PANTHERS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Game Total OVER 41.5 @1.90 x2

Rolling with the over. Found 41.5 at Sportsbet.

[MrXYZ]

There must have been 20 penalties in that game
The broncos worked the ruck better and took advantage of slowing the play down, especially when defending their line.
Once again the Dogs were inept in attack - they get a play right, like the Williams try - then shelve it for dummy half runs.

The Broncos were poor also - they really have some issues in the halves. Ben Hunt is terrible and Hoffman is way out of his depth at 5/8th.
They really need to find a decent 7 or 6.

Ennis and his dummy half runs, and every once in a while a good kick from Hodkinson. Dogs playing the same uninspired football, they have to make some changes.

[Domestic]

Welcome back, good luck on the over today.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

PENRITH PANTHERS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Game Total OVER 41.5 @1.90 x2

Rolling with the over. Found 41.5 at Sportsbet.

Why the over mate?
This has under written all over it.
Not looking good at ht.

[MrXYZ]

Buried. I'm done for Round 1.

Today: 0-1 -2.0 units -$100
NRL Season record: 0-3 -5.0 Units - $250

[MrXYZ]

So taking a day off was a good move, as I was leaning both Manly & Cowboys.

WESTS TIGERS vs ST GEORGE DRAGONS
TIGERS ML @2.00 x1

As a longtime NRL fan, it's sad to see these storied clubs fighting to avoid the wooden spoon in 2014. I'm rolling with the Tigers despite them missing players & the staph infection scare. Just a gut play, taking the younger team with the future superstar at even money. Dragons preseason form has been awful but once the game kicks off they might surprise me.

[MrXYZ]

Another loser. Got one more play left. this us the worst NRL weekend since I started wasting my time on this stupid fukn game.

[the tross]

You're not alone X. You'll get it back.

[MrXYZ]

PARRAMATTA EELS vs NZL WARRIORS
PARRA +4.5 @1.91 x1

At home in the opener I'm rolling with the underdogs to keep it lose or even win. Found 4.5 at Centrebet.

Warriors are one of the NRL's most exciting teams, yet since making the Grand Final in 2011 have been a complete waste of talent. Parra have been just as forgettable. Hayne reignited his career at the world cup and the team made efforts to clean out the losing culture that plagued them in recent years.

Good luck. Fading me would've made you money so far.