Tgm - nrl 2014

[Dr.Gonzo]

My pleasure buddy...

Pity about yesterday's game - panthers defence didn't show up.

Some big bets on the Knights tonight:

$8K ML@ $4.75
$25K ATS(+12.5) @ $2

If you had 8K on the ML you'd want to see Kidley hung after missing that penalty shot from in front of the posts, Boyd's attempt at a drop goal wasn't much better.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

And they want to pick Gidley for Origin... FFS.

Lucky for him, he gets a bonus bet as the Knights were up at HT.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Round 11

# 47 - Titans/Warriors OVER 38.5 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT
# 48 - Tigers ML @ $2.26 (PINNACLE) - 1 UNIT

[Martinr]

Hey TGM,
Jut found your thread. Looking good.
This Bulldogs/Roosters game on Friday:
Dogs without their halves. Also losing Josh Morris and Tony Williams to Origin.
Roosters will be missing Guerra, Jennings and Tupau.
The exchange has the Dogs at 3.05. Roosters 1.47 in a 100% market.
Obviously having Pierce and Maloney in for Easts is influencing that market.
I'm thinking Hassler's team has adjusted as well as or better than the other teams to the quicker style of play this year, and they might still be a match for the Roosters here.
Have you got an opinion on this game, or do you not play with these Origin weakened match-ups?
Cheers.

[Shazzadude]

100% market-are you saying 100% are on the Roosters? If so, how do you know this?

[Martinr]

100% market-are you saying 100% are on the Roosters? If so, how do you know this?

No man. I mean the exchange market (Betfair) is sitting at 100% (no juice). That's normal with good liquidity markets.
I think most books have their markets at 105-107% (2.80 Bulldogs, 1.45 Roosters)

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Round 12

# 49 - Sea Eagles ML @ $1.94 (PINNACLE) - 1 UNIT
# 50 - Roosters/Raiders OVER 42.5 @ $1.90 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Eels ML @ $2.10 (BET 365) - 2 units

Eagles/Bulldogs OVER 34 @ $2.00 (BET 365) - 1 unit

[Rugby21]

Like the look of bulldogs getting a start on the handicap, not been impressed with Manly for a number of weeks.

If the cowboys want to challenge this year, they need to win games like this

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Dogs forwards got bogged in the slop.
Terrible showing - that bombed try when up 6-0 was crucial.

Cowboys just can't win away. That's 0-6 away from home this season.

[angelo63]

Dogs forwards got bogged in the slop.
Terrible showing - that bombed try when up 6-0 was crucial.

Cowboys just can't win away. That's 0-6 away from home this season.

Dogs forwards have been out played by Roosters and Sea Eagles the two most dominate packs in the comp, Dogs are behind Rabbit ohs and Cowboys as well in regards to packs, dont you agree TGM or is there some sort of loyalty to the 2012 Dogs pack that made the GF and were out played by the lightweight Storm pack.

[elchucaro]

time to world champ soccer...

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Panthers/Broncos UNDER 38.5
2 units $1.90 - (IASBET)

[binomial]

like this also GL

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Second and third best defences in the comp
Panthers 1-6 under at home
Broncos 2-6 under away

Game flies over by a mile.....

[Dr.Gonzo]

Soward was a disgrace in defence and the positional play of Idris wasn't much better. I know where I'd be attacking Penrith from now on.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Ben Hunt was not any better
Awful in defence.
Barba is shot too - fullbacks have to contest the ball, letting it bounce 20m out or not jumping for the ball gives out bad signals to the rest of the team.
Broncos looked much better when Hoffman moved back there

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Raiders +13.5
$1.92
IASBET
2 units

[BatmanRobin]

Raiders +13.5
$1.92
IASBET
2 units

Howdy Brother

Yo Bro , U seem to be the gun capper in the NRL around these parts, juz wonderin if ya have a record for ya seasons plays?

Or ya juz post when ur feelin it?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Howdy Brother

Yo Bro , U seem to be the gun capper in the NRL around these parts, juz wonderin if ya have a record for ya seasons plays?

Or ya juz post when ur feelin it?

Not around as much lately.
Updated record to follow shortly.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

YTD

Bets Placed: 54
Bets Won: 31
Bets Push: 1
Bets Lost: 22
Strike Rate: 57%
Units Wagered: 58
Units Profit: 8.11
ROI: 14%

Last 2 betting weeks have diminished our profit, but still a reasonable return for the season to date.