Tgm - nrl 2014

[yippa82]

The line looks a little short for my liking.
SBW in is a big plus for the Chooks and he tore the Dogs apart in both games last year.
I wouldn't read too much into last week's result. The Storm actually started well and were 10-0 up. The Dogs still have issues with the high ball and their attack has looked pedestrian against organized defences (Broncos/Panthers).
I like the look of Klemmer - he gives them plenty of punch in the ruck when he's on.
JWH is a big out for the chooks and their prop rotation looks a little thin.
The Roosters will be looking to bounce back after last weeks loss and the result may hinge on how the referees react to last weeks spray from coach Robinson.
May have a play on the total but for mine there are better spots this week.

thank you tgm love the way you break it all done. Good start to the season as well!

[aussieH]

I like the over s on both Friday night games but looking at weather forecast they are forecasting rain.

Anyone with a on the ground update

[micase]

I like the over s on both Friday night games but looking at weather forecast they are forecasting rain.

Anyone with a on the ground update

Bit overcast here today but has remained dry. I'll be heading to the game so will try give you an update closer to kick off.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

For Sydney, it's looking like rain overnight and up until midday.

On and off showers during the afternoon right up until halftime.

Chance of a late storm at around 9pm.

I'm liking the over too - if they set it around 38 or less, it will be a play.

[angelo63]

Week 5

#28 Sharks +4.5 @ $1.92 (LUXBET) - 2 UNITS
#29 Raiders +6 @ $1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT
#30 Titans +11.5 @ $1.92 (PALMERBET) - 1 UNIT

Hi TGM

Sharkies cost you a great record last week, are you simply chasing them?

the squad is the same? The Warriors have two major ins Mateo and Hurrell that alone is scary for any opposition let alone a team that has the worst coach seen this century in Sharp and the Fifita drama hanging over them as well as Asada and Flanagan signing, Mate i would hold onto your cash until the Sharks show some form.

I have been speaking to some good judges and they say the Sharks are gone for the year? Maybe not yet , but putting money on teams thathave no form and are missing their two best players whilst the opposition is getting back their two best and won in great stye last week is throwing the form book out the window.

Sharks were spanked by dogs and knights something like 72 -4. The line should be around 11 here.

Good luck anyway your doing a great job here as SBR 's premier NRL capper

Cheers

[aussieH]

Bulldogs game at 36.5 on sportsbet


micase are you in Brisbane or Sydney.

[micase]

Sydney, I live close to the stadium and didn't hear a drop of rain last night. Looking a bit overcast though still.

[Shazzadude]

Hi TGM

Sharkies cost you a great record last week, are you simply chasing them?

the squad is the same? The Warriors have two major ins Mateo and Hurrell that alone is scary for any opposition let alone a team that has the worst coach seen this century in Sharp and the Fifita drama hanging over them as well as Asada and Flanagan signing, Mate i would hold onto your cash until the Sharks show some form.

I have been speaking to some good judges and they say the Sharks are gone for the year? Maybe not yet , but putting money on teams thathave no form and are missing their two best players whilst the opposition is getting back their two best and won in great stye last week is throwing the form book out the window.

Sharks were spanked by dogs and knights something like 72 -4. The line should be around 11 here.

Good luck anyway your doing a great job here as SBR 's premier NRL capper

Cheers

I agree wholeheartedly with your logic and all the reasons you mention. Though the Sharks have a good record the last couple of years against the Warriors (and I've made good money taking the Sharks over my Warriors), all logic suggests the Warriors will blow them out.

...except for the line. It opened at 4.5 and now it's moved to 4 at some books.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I will be very surprised if the game is a blowout.
Fifita is now playing for a contract, so expect him to lift.
The Sharks were blown out of the water last week, all due to the McKinnon incident. The Knights were up for it from the get go and I reckon any team would have struggled to get the better of them, especially in the first half.

Let's not kid ourselves about the Warriors either. Just 3 weeks ago, they looked like shite, belted by the Eels and Dragons.
Their away form is terrible and last weeks blowout was accentuated due to the fact that the Tigers were again caught short of interchange players late in the game due to injury.
Of note in the game was the Tigers up 12-0 early on and they bombed a couple more sitters.
If their back line could finish, they are up24-0 after 20 mins and the game is all but over.

[aussieH]

Radar in Sydney is showing rain north of Sydney. Any updates from at the ground

[Shazzadude]

Their away form is terrible and last weeks blowout was accentuated due to the fact that the Tigers were again caught short of interchange players late in the game due to injury.
Of note in the game was the Tigers up 12-0 early on and they bombed a couple more sitters.
If their back line could finish, they are up24-0 after 20 mins and the game is all but over.

It wasn't the first time this season the Tigers have gone up two tries only to get blown out however.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

It wasn't the first time this season the Tigers have gone up two tries only to get blown out however.

And what happened in that game?
The same thing.
They lost 2-3 players to game ending injuries.
Any team is going to struggle to win if they are down to 1 or 2 players on the bench, especially this early in the season.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I will be very surprised if the game is a blowout.
Fifita is now playing for a contract, so expect him to lift.
The Sharks were blown out of the water last week, all due to the McKinnon incident. The Knights were up for it from the get go and I reckon any team would have struggled to get the better of them, especially in the first half.

Let's not kid ourselves about the Warriors either. Just 3 weeks ago, they looked like shite, belted by the Eels and Dragons.
Their away form is terrible and last weeks blowout was accentuated due to the fact that the Tigers were again caught short of interchange players late in the game due to injury.
Of note in the game was the Tigers up 12-0 early on and they bombed a couple more sitters.
If their back line could finish, they are up24-0 after 20 mins and the game is all but over.

I'm very surprised - not because the Sharks won, but with the size of the scoreline in their favour.

For those looking at loading up on the Warriors this season - see the bold section above.

The Warriors were awful - completion rate of 59%.
The Sharks (36/43) actually completed 4 more sets than the total sets the Warriors (19/32) had.
17 errors and 16 missed tackles.

[MrXYZ]

Good luck today. Storm are tough at home but Titans are more than capable of pushing them all the way. Books giving them too many points.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Good luck today. Storm are tough at home but Titans are more than capable of pushing them all the way. Books giving them too many points.

Cheers mate.
Titans win straight up.

Makes up for a few sickening beats in the NSW cup today.

Manly Reserves - $3.60
Wyong Roos - $4.25

Manly up 26-22 late in the game and get rolled 27-26.
Wyong game tied at 22-22 with a minute to go, FG attempt goes under the crossbar. Wenty go the length and get a penalty right in front to ice the game 24-22.

[elchucaro]

titans surplus !!!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Week 5

#28 Sharks +4.5 @ $1.92 (LUXBET) - 2 UNITS - [WIN]
#29 Raiders +6 @ $1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT - [PUSH]
#30 Titans +11.5 @ $1.92 (PALMERBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Week

Bets Placed: 3
Bets Won: 2
Bets Push: 1
Bets Lost: 0
Strike Rate: 83%
Units Wagered: 4
Units Profit: 2.76
ROI: 69%

----------------------------------------------------------------------
YTD

Bets Placed: 30
Bets Won: 21
Bets Push: 1
Bets Lost: 8
Strike Rate: 70%
Units Wagered: 28
Units Profit: 12.33
ROI: 44%

[Shazzadude]

Fantastic season thus far.

[yippa82]

Great capping TGM

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Underdogs continuing the trend.

5-2 ML
5-1-1 ATS

Thanks for the kind words.

Let's hope the great run can keep going.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Week 6

#31 Roosters -6 @ $1.90 (BET 365) - 2 UNITS
#32 Sharks +10.5 @ $1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT
#33 Panthers/Rabbitohs OVER 36 @ $1.90 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT

[HeisenBet]

I was on the Roosters as well, something doesn't seem right in the team or perhaps they are too easy to defend running the same plays all the time. That hopeful bomb to the corner isn't catching teams out this season either, very one dimensional at the moment.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Very hard to back up in the NRL
In retrospect the 2 unit play should have only been 1.
The eels have a formidable ATS record at home, even last year when they were awful, they still played well there.

I still think the Roosters will come good but obviously other teams are lifting against them and opposition coaches have figured out how to counter their gameplan.

Depending on what Cronulla do today, there might be another play on the roosters next week

[hedgejob]

There have been no overs in NRL this round so naturally the public are pounding the over in NZ/Bulldogs game.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Stats support it and I had pencilled this in during the week.
Only concern is the new coach and the Warriors should come out better in defence.
The Bulldogs have also come off a very physical match last week.
And it is being played in a different country.

Plenty of points scored in the NYC.
The NSW cup game was a grindfest though.

7 of the last 10 at all venues have gone over this total.
8 of the last 10 in NZ have gone over this total.

[hedgejob]

Be hilarious if this one goes under too then public give up and pound the under in Manly game only for it to go over.

[angelo63]

Stats support it and I had pencilled this in during the week.
Only concern is the new coach and the Warriors should come out better in defence.
The Bulldogs have also come off a very physical match last week.
And it is being played in a different country.

Plenty of points scored in the NYC.
The NSW cup game was a grindfest though.

7 of the last 10 at all venues have gone over this total.
8 of the last 10 in NZ have gone over this total.

AND it went under by 1 on the closing price of 42.5 so the moral of the story is the people who took the opener of 40.5 won
Money pushes lines , if you miss you the value has gone. No better indicator of this then here. I myself was on the closer ( lack of urgency costs money )

Keep going TGM you are the Premier NRL capper on SBR

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Week 6

#31 Roosters -6 @ $1.90 (BET 365) - 2 UNITS - [LOSS]
#32 Sharks +10.5 @ $1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT - [LOSS]
#33 Panthers/Rabbitohs OVER 36 @ $1.90 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT - [LOSS]

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Week

Bets Placed: 3
Bets Won: 0
Bets Push: 0
Bets Lost: 3
Strike Rate: 0%
Units Wagered: 4
Units Loss: (4)
ROI: -100%

----------------------------------------------------------------------
YTD

Bets Placed: 33
Bets Won: 21
Bets Push: 1
Bets Lost: 11
Strike Rate: 63%
Units Wagered: 32
Units Profit: 8.33
ROI: 26%


Absolutely awful week last round.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Obviously the Roosters are struggling for combinations this year and I picked the wrong time to play a 2 unit on them.
Unlucky on the Panthers total play - they had so much ball in Souths 20m zone and couldn't post any points.
The greasy conditions did not help but I still think it was the right play.

Round 7 plays to follow.....

[Tim Gerry Mander]

AND it went under by 1 on the closing price of 42.5 so the moral of the story is the people who took the opener of 40.5 won
Money pushes lines , if you miss you the value has gone. No better indicator of this then here. I myself was on the closer ( lack of urgency costs money )

Keep going TGM you are the Premier NRL capper on SBR

Yep, exaclty!
Couldn't have said it better myself Angelo.
Thanks for your kind words.

Just to reiterate the point.
I really like the Broncos this week @ Newcastle.
Of the last 3 games in Newcastle, the Broncos are 2 wins and 1 draw.
Of the last 6 games overall, the Broncos are 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
Broncos record in Newcastle is excellent.
They opened at +4, but are now into +2 at most books.
NEVER take a worse line.
It is now a NO PLAY for me, now matter how appealing the game looks.
You'll be surprised how many times you get done by a worse line.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Round 7

#34 Sharks +8 @ $1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT
#35 Tigers +7.5 @ 1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT
#36 Sea Eagles/Cowboys UNDER 38.5 @ $1.90 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT
#37 Dragons/Warriors OVER 42 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Sharks have a decent record at home and they've fared very well against the Roosters there.
They are 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss against the Chooks in their last 6 games at Shark Park.
Catching +8 here is a great spot, especially at home where they at least have been competitive.
The Roosters have the ANZAC day game against the Dragons to look forward to, so there may be a look ahead spot.
Their form has been off - they are losing close games that last year they were winning.
They are still getting caned by the referees and this season it is affecting their performances.
The Sharks are a dismal 2-4 ATS this season, but the Roosters are a horrible 1-5 ATS.
The Roosters should win but i expect a tight tussle between two desperate teams which means a big start like this will help the hapless Sharks.
Both teams are also UNDERS magnets and I would not be surprised if this stays under too.

[aussieH]

For today going for two overs and the under in the broncos game.

[dRavidC]

Broncos line back to +3.5 TGM

[Tim Gerry Mander]

For today going for two overs and the under in the broncos game.

I like UNDER in all 3 games today.
I saw the Cowboys team at the airport yesterday.
Spoke to a few of the players.
Their defence has been great this season - they are fully aware that they need to do more in attack.
I just think that with DCE out for Manly and the game being at Gosford, it becomes a grind so I am expecting a very close game.

As for Bulldogs/Rabbits - these games are notoriously close, especially the Good Friday clash.
Both teams are great defensive teams and are good at choking opposition.
I can see something like 18-12 or 14-8

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Broncos line back to +3.5 TGM

Four is the key number mate
Is someone out for Broncos?

EDIT - Thaiday in doubt for Broncos